The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 6 basis points to 4.5% on Tuesday, as investors returned from the long weekend and remained cautiously optimistic that the US and Iran could still reach a near-term agreement, despite recent military strikes and ongoing mixed signals from both sides. Attention is also focused on the Fed’s policy outlook, with markets reassessing expectations for interest rates after the surge in oil prices fuelled inflation concerns. Traders are now pricing in an 80% probability of a rate hike by December, a significant reversal from earlier expectations of two 25bps cuts prior to the US and Iran. The upcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures, will provide further clarity on the inflation trajectory and the central bank’s likely policy response.
The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.51% on May 26, 2026, marking a 0.06 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 0.06 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May 26 of 2026.
The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.51% on May 26, 2026, marking a 0.06 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.16 points and is 0.06 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The US 10 Year Treasury Note Yield is expected to trade at 4.54 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.33 in 12 months time.