The yield on the Italian 10-year government bond yield rose the 3.5% level in August, the highest in nearly one month amid bets that major central banks will continue to prioritize the fight against inflation and tighten monetary policy aggressively. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel stated that the inflation outlook for the currency bloc failed to improve since the central bank’s last meeting, raising bets of sharp rate hikes. In July, the ECB hiked rates by a larger than expected 50bps. Political uncertainty ahead of the snap Italian elections also added to the pressure on Italian debt. Polls favor the three-party right-wing coalition, signaling Brothers of Italy’s leader Giorgia Meloni to be the next Prime Minister. Any change in ongoing reforms could risk access to over EUR 200 billion of recovery funds. The spread between the 10-year BTP and its German counterpart widened sharply to over 230bps, pointing to an increase in the perception of Italian debt risk.
Historically, the Italy Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 14.20 in October of 1992. Italy Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on August of 2022.
The Italy Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 3.26 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 3.91 in 12 months time.