The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell 0.6 percent to 52.3 in January 2019 from 52.6 in the previous month and below market expectations of 53.1. It was the lowest reading since December 2017, as the government shutdown helped drag the overall index lower as the Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP measure of views on how government economic policies are working, declined to its lowest level since June (-1.6 points to 49). Meanwhile, the Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, rose 0.2 points to 61 and the Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, increased 0.4 points to 46.8 Economic Optimism Index in the United States averaged 49.64 from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 62.90 in March of 2002 and a record low of 35.80 in August of 2011.
Economic Optimism Index in the United States is expected to be 52.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Economic Optimism Index in the United States to stand at 51.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is projected to trend around 50.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.