The yield on the Indian 10-year government bond jumped to a near 3-year high of 7.4% after the Reserve Bank of India surprised markets by raising the key interest rate by 40bps to 4.4% during an emergency meeting on May 4th, aiming to tackle soaring inflationary pressures. The inflation in India has been running above the central bank upper tolerance limit and there is a risk it will stay high for too long due to geopolitical tensions and rising commodity prices.
Historically, the India Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 14.76 in April of 1996. India Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May of 2022.
The India Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 7.37 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 7.54 in 12 months time.