The yield on the Indian 10-year government bond was around 7.3%, not far from a 3-year high of 7.4% hit on May 9th, as traders remained worried about surging domestic inflation, widening fiscal-balance and monetary policy tightening. The government's recent cut on fuel excise duty and increased subsidies on food and fertilizer are set to widen the country's fiscal balance further, even as the government plans to stick to its fiscal first-half borrowing calendar. Also, the inflation in India is expected to remain above the central bank’s upper target range amid geopolitical tensions and rising commodity prices. Meanwhile, traders expect a further rate-hike in June by the Reserve Bank of India, after the governor said that the central bank will not allow a runaway depreciation of the rupee at a rapid pace.
Historically, the India Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 14.76 in April of 1996. India Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May of 2022.
The India Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 7.41 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 7.58 in 12 months time.