Year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as measured by the University of Michigan survey, fell for a second consecutive month to 4.2% in July 2026, the lowest level since March, down from 4.6% in June and in line with the preliminary estimate. Even so, expectations remained well above the 3.4% recorded in February, before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, and above all readings seen throughout 2024. Meanwhile, the five-year inflation outlook stood at 3.3% in July, matching both June's reading and the preliminary estimate. Nevertheless, it remained slightly above the 2.8%-3.2% range that prevailed throughout 2024. source: University of Michigan

Michigan Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 4.20 percent in July from 4.60 percent in June of 2026. Michigan Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.61 percent from 1978 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 10.40 percent in January of 1980 and a record low of 0.40 percent in November of 2001. This page includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan Inflation Expectations. United States Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2026.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-07-17 02:00 PM
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel
Jul 4.2% 4.6% 4.3%
2026-07-31 02:00 PM
Michigan Inflation Expectations Final
Jul 4.2% 4.6% 4.2%
2026-08-14 02:00 PM
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel
Aug 4.2% 4.1%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
CPI 333.95 335.12 points Jun 2026
Core Consumer Prices 336.07 336.12 points Jun 2026
Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.60 2.90 percent Jun 2026
Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.00 0.20 percent Jun 2026
Core PCE Price Index 130.27 130.09 points Jun 2026
Core PCE Price Index YoY 3.30 3.40 percent Jun 2026
Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.10 0.30 percent Jun 2026
Core PCE Prices QoQ 3.40 4.40 percent Jun 2026
Core Producer Prices 154.00 153.69 points Jun 2026
Core PPI MoM 0.20 0.10 percent Jun 2026
Core PPI YoY 4.70 4.60 percent Jun 2026
CPI Core Core YoY 2.30 2.70 percent Jun 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 359.19 358.39 points Jun 2026
CPI Median 2.70 2.90 percent Jun 2026
CPI s.a 332.57 333.98 points Jun 2026
CPI Transportation 291.23 298.41 points Jun 2026
CPI Trimmed-Mean 2.60 2.90 percent Jun 2026
Energy Inflation 15.70 23.50 Percent Jun 2026
Export Prices 167.80 168.80 points Jun 2026
Export Prices MoM -0.60 1.20 percent Jun 2026
Export Prices YoY 10.20 11.30 percent Jun 2026
Food Inflation 3.00 3.10 percent Jun 2026
GDP Price Index 133.81 131.78 points Jun 2026
Import Prices 150.80 150.30 points Jun 2026
Import Prices MoM 0.30 1.70 percent Jun 2026
Import Prices YoY 7.10 6.70 percent Jun 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.70 3.50 percent Jun 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.50 4.20 percent Jun 2026
Inflation Rate MoM -0.40 0.50 percent Jun 2026
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations 3.30 3.30 percent Jul 2026
Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.20 4.60 percent Jul 2026
PCE Price Index 131.39 131.54 points Jun 2026
PCE Price Index YoY 3.70 4.10 percent Jun 2026
PCE Price Index MoM -0.10 0.50 percent Jun 2026
PCE Prices QoQ 5.10 4.60 percent Jun 2026
PPI Ex Food Energy and Trade Services 142.49 142.30 points Jun 2026
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM 0.10 0.80 percent Jun 2026
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY 5.10 5.10 percent Jun 2026
PPI MoM -0.30 0.60 percent Jun 2026
PPI 156.57 157.00 points Jun 2026
PPI YoY 5.50 6.00 percent Jun 2026
Shelter Inflation 3.30 3.40 percent Jun 2026
Services Inflation 3.20 3.50 Percent Jun 2026


United States Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations
The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.20 4.60 10.40 0.40 1978 - 2026 percent Monthly
1966Q1=100, NSA

News Stream
US 1-Year Inflation Expectations Confirmed at 4.2%
Year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as measured by the University of Michigan survey, fell for a second consecutive month to 4.2% in July 2026, the lowest level since March, down from 4.6% in June and in line with the preliminary estimate. Even so, expectations remained well above the 3.4% recorded in February, before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, and above all readings seen throughout 2024. Meanwhile, the five-year inflation outlook stood at 3.3% in July, matching both June's reading and the preliminary estimate. Nevertheless, it remained slightly above the 2.8%-3.2% range that prevailed throughout 2024.
2026-07-31
US 1-Year Inflation Outlook Hits 4-Month Low
The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the survey of the University of Michigan, fell for the second month to 4.2% in July 2026, the lowest since March, down from 4.6% in June, preliminary estimates showed. Still, the figure remained well above the 3.4% recorded in February, before the Iran conflict began. In the meantime, the five-year inflation outlook stood at a three-month low of 3.3% in July, unchanged from June.
2026-07-17
US 1-Year Inflation Outlook Unrevised in June
The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the survey of the University of Michigan, stood at 4.6% in June 2026, in line with the initial estimate and down from a nine-month high of 4.8% in May. However, they remained well above the 3.4% recorded in February, before the Iran conflict began. In the meantime, the five-year inflation outlook was revised slightly down to 3.3% from the preliminary 3.4% and below May's seven-month high of 3.9%.
2026-06-26