The US economy advanced an annualized 3.5 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, beating market expectations of 3.3 percent, the advance estimate showed. It follows a 4.2 percent growth in the previous period which was the highest since the third quarter of 2014. The increase in real GDP reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports and residential fixed investment. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.22 percent from 1947 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

GDP Growth Rate in the United States is expected to be 2.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in the United States to stand at 2.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States GDP Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-08-29 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 4.2% 2.2% 4% 4%
2018-09-27 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 4.2% 2.2% 4.2% 4.2%
2018-10-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 3.5% 4.2% 3.3% 3.1%
2018-11-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2018-12-21 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final



US GDP Growth Beats Forecasts in Q3


The US economy advanced an annualized 3.5 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, beating market expectations of 3.3 percent, the advance estimate showed. It follows a 4.2 percent growth in the previous period which was the highest since the third quarter of 2014. Consumer spending rose faster and inventories rebounded. On the other hand, investment in structures fell the most in near three years, residential continued to contract and net trade made the biggest drag on growth since Q2 1985.

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 2.69 percentage points to growth (2.57 percentage points in Q2) and rose 4 percent (3.8 percent in Q2), the biggest gain since Q4 2014. Spending rose faster for nondurable goods (5.2 percent compared to 4 percent) and services (3.2 percent compared to 3 percent) but slowed for durable goods (6.9 percent compared to 8.6 percent). 

Fixed investment made a negative contribution (-0.04 percentage points compared to +1.1 percentage points in Q2) and fell 0.3 percent after a 6.4 percent jump in Q2. Investment in structures slumped 7.9 percent after rising 14.5 percent, the biggest fall since Q4 2015 and residential investment went down for the third straight quarter (-4 percent compared to -1.3 percent). Also, investment slowed for equipment (0.4 percent compared to 4.6 percent) and intellectual property products (7.9 percent compared to 10.5 percent).

The contribution from private inventories turned positive (2.07 percentage points compared to -1.17 percentage points in Q2).

Exports fell 3.5 percent (+9.3 percent in Q2), mainly due to a decline in soybean exports to China after Beijing's tariffs took effect. Imports rose 9.1 percent, rebounding from a 0.6 percent decline in Q2, before US import tariffs take complete effect. As a result, the impact from trade was -1.78 percent, compared to +1.22 percent in Q2.

Government spending and investment added 0.56 percentage points to growth, slightly higher than 0.43 percentage points in Q2. It increased 3.3 percent, above 2.5 percent in Q2.


BEA | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
10/26/2018 1:15:42 PM


Recent Releases

US GDP Growth Confirmed at 4.2% in Q2
The US economy advanced an annualized 4.2 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2018, unrevised from the previous estimate and in line with market expectations. It is the highest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014. Net trade made the highest contribution since the last three months of 2013 mainly due to a rise in exports of soybeans and other goods before tariffs take completely effect. On the other hand, inventories made the biggest drag on growth since the first quarter of 2014.
Published on 2018-09-27

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Published on 2018-06-28



United States GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 3.50 4.20 16.70 -10.00 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 2.90 13.40 -3.90 percent [+]
GDP 19390.60 18624.48 19390.60 543.30 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 18671.50 18511.58 18671.50 2184.87 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 18766.40 17551.88 18766.40 2098.40 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3320.14 3322.33 3322.33 1215.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 53128.54 52319.20 53128.54 17036.90 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45 53399.40 54225.45 36543.08 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 216.90 212.50 236.10 168.40 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 641.40 637.30 794.50 531.70 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2125.80 2113.80 2125.80 1798.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 429.80 418.10 472.80 241.80 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2175.50 2172.30 2188.00 2089.50 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12700.80 12555.40 12700.80 9734.70 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 542.40 542.70 542.70 429.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 284.30 272.20 291.30 217.20 USD Billion [+]


United States GDP Growth Rate

On the expenditure side, personal consumption expenditures accounts for 68 percent of total GDP out of which purchases of goods constitute 23 percent and services 45 percent. Private investment accounts for 16 percent of GDP and government consumption and investment for 18 percent. As the value of goods exported (13.5 percent) is lower than the value of goods imported (16.5 percent), net exports subtracts 3 percent from the total GDP value. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States GDP Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.50 4.20 16.70 -10.00 1947 - 2018 percent Quarterly




Country Last
Singapore 4.70 Sep/18
United States 3.50 Sep/18
Indonesia 3.09 Sep/18
India 1.90 Jun/18
China 1.60 Sep/18
Australia 0.90 Jun/18
Mexico 0.90 Sep/18
Russia 0.90 Jun/18
Turkey 0.90 Jun/18
Canada 0.70 Jun/18
Switzerland 0.70 Jun/18
South Korea 0.60 Sep/18
Spain 0.60 Sep/18
United Kingdom 0.60 Sep/18
France 0.40 Sep/18
Brazil 0.20 Jun/18
Euro Area 0.20 Sep/18
Netherlands 0.20 Sep/18
Italy 0.00 Sep/18
Saudi Arabia -0.05 Mar/18
Germany -0.20 Sep/18
Japan -0.30 Sep/18
South Africa -0.70 Jun/18
Argentina -4.00 Jun/18


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