The US economy advanced an annualized 3.4 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, slightly below earlier estimates of a 3.5 percent growth, final figures showed. It follows a 4.2 percent expansion in the previous period which was the highest since the third quarter of 2014. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports were revised down, and private inventory investment was revised up. However, the general picture of economic growth remains the same. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.22 percent from 1947 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

GDP Growth Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in the United States to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States GDP Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-09-27 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 4.2% 2.2% 4.2% 4.2%
2018-10-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 3.5% 4.2% 3.3% 3.1%
2018-11-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 3.5% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2018-12-21 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 3.4% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2019-02-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 3.4% 2.6% 2.7%
2019-03-28 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 2.7%
2019-04-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 1.8%



US GDP Growth Revised Down to 3.4% in Q3

The US economy advanced an annualized 3.4 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, slightly below earlier estimates of a 3.5 percent growth, final figures showed. It follows a 4.2 percent expansion in the previous period which was the highest since the third quarter of 2014. Personal spending was revised slightly lower and net trade dragged down more on growth than initially estimated while inventory accumulation was higher than expected.

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 2.37 percentage points to growth (2.45 percentage points in the second estimate) and rose 3.5 percent (3.6 percent in the second estimate). Spending rose less than expected for both durable (3.7 percent compared to 3.9 percent) and nondurable goods (4.6 percent compared to 5.3 percent) but increased slightly more for services (3.2 percent compared to 3.1 percent). 

Fixed investment made a smaller contribution (0.21 percentage points compared to 0.25 percentage points in the second estimate) and rose 1.1 percent (1.4 percent in the second estimate). Investment rose less for equipment (3.4 percent compared to 3.5 percent) and declined faster for structures (-3.4 percent compared to -1.7 percent) and residential investment (-3.6 percent compared to -2.6 percent). On the other hand, it increased more for intellectual property products (5.6 percent compared to 4.3 percent).

The contribution from private inventories was more positive than previously expected (2.33 percentage points compared to 2.27 percentage points in the second estimate).

Exports fell 4.9 percent (-4.4 percent in the second estimate), mainly due to a decline in soybean exports to China after Beijing's tariffs took effect. Imports rose 9.3 percent (9.2 percent in the second estimate), before US import tariffs take complete effect. As a result, the impact from trade was -1.99 percent, compared to -1.91 percent in the advance estimate, the biggest drag on growth since the first quarter of 1984.

Government spending and investment added 0.44 percentage points to growth, the same as in the second estimate. It increased 2.6 percent, also unchanged from the previous estimate. 


BEA | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
12/21/2018 2:18:12 PM



United States GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 3.40 4.20 16.70 -10.00 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 2.90 13.40 -3.90 percent [+]
GDP 19390.60 18624.48 19390.60 543.30 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 18664.97 18511.58 18664.97 2184.87 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 18908.02 18766.40 18908.02 2098.40 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3331.79 3322.33 3331.79 1215.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 53128.54 52319.20 53128.54 17036.90 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45 53399.40 54225.45 36543.08 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 216.90 212.50 236.10 168.40 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 641.40 637.30 794.50 531.70 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2125.80 2113.80 2125.80 1798.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 429.80 418.10 472.80 241.80 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2175.50 2172.30 2188.00 2089.50 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12700.80 12555.40 12700.80 9734.70 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 542.40 542.70 542.70 429.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 284.30 272.20 291.30 217.20 USD Billion [+]


United States GDP Growth Rate

On the expenditure side, personal consumption expenditures accounts for 68 percent of total GDP out of which purchases of goods constitute 23 percent and services 45 percent. Private investment accounts for 16 percent of GDP and government consumption and investment for 18 percent. As the value of goods exported (13.5 percent) is lower than the value of goods imported (16.5 percent), net exports subtracts 3 percent from the total GDP value. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States GDP Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.40 4.20 16.70 -10.00 1947 - 2018 percent Quarterly




Country Last Previous
United States 3.40 Sep/18
South Africa 2.20 Sep/18
China 1.50 Dec/18
India 1.50 Sep/18
Singapore 1.40 Dec/18
South Korea 1.00 Dec/18
Brazil 0.80 Sep/18
Spain 0.70 Dec/18
Canada 0.50 Sep/18
Netherlands 0.50 Dec/18
Australia 0.30 Sep/18
France 0.30 Dec/18
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Mexico 0.30 Dec/18
Russia 0.30 Sep/18
Euro Area 0.20 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.20 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia -0.05 Mar/18
Italy -0.20 Dec/18
Switzerland -0.20 Sep/18
Argentina -0.70 Sep/18
Turkey -1.10 Sep/18
Indonesia -1.69 Dec/18


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