The US economy advanced an annualized 2.2 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, well below a 2.6 percent growth in the previous estimate and 3.4 percent in the previous period. It compares with market expectations of 2.4 percent. Personal consumption expenditure and nonresidential fixed investment rose less than expected and public spending declined. On the other hand, the drag from net trade was smaller than anticipated as exports rose more and imports increased at a softer pace. Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, the most since 2015, and above 2.2 percent in 2017. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.22 percent from 1947 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

GDP Growth Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in the United States to stand at 2.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States GDP Growth Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 3.5% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2018-12-21 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 3.4% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
2019-02-28 01:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2.6% 3.4% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-03-28 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 2.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.7%
2019-04-26 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 2.2% 2.1% 2%
2019-05-30 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est 2.2% 2.3%
2019-06-27 12:30 PM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final 2.2% 2.3%



US GDP Growth Revised Down to 2.2%

The US economy advanced an annualized 2.2 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018, well below a 2.6 percent growth in the previous estimate and 3.4 percent in the previous period. It compares with market expectations of 2.4 percent. Personal consumption expenditure and nonresidential fixed investment rose less than expected and public spending declined. On the other hand, the drag from net trade was smaller than anticipated as exports rose more and imports increased at a softer pace. Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, the most since 2015, and above 2.2 percent in 2017.

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 1.66 percentage points to growth (1.92 percentage points in the previous estimate) and rose 2.5 percent (2.8 percent in the previous estimate). Spending went up less for nondurables (2.1 percent compared to 2.8 percent) and durables (3.6 percent compared to 5.9 percent) and increased 2.4 percent for services, the same as in the previous estimate.

Fixed investment contributed 0.54 percentage points to growth (0.69 percentage points in the previous estimate) and rose 3.1 percent (3.9 percent in the previous estimate). Investment gained less than expected for equipment (6.6 percent compared to 6.7 percent) and intellectual property products (10.7 percent compared to 13.1 percent) and continued to decline for structures (-3.9 percent compared to -4.2 percent) and residential investment (-4.7 percent compared to -3.5 percent). 

The contribution from private inventories was 0.11 percentage points, below 0.13 percentage points in the previous estimate.

Exports increased 1.8 percent (1.6 percent in the previous estimate). Imports rose 2 percent (2.7 percent in the previous estimate). As a result, the impact from trade was -0.08 percent, compared to -0.22 percent in the previous estimate. 

Government spending and investment subtracted 0.07 percentage points to growth, compared to a 0.07 percent positive contribution in the previous estimate. It fell 0.4 percent, compared to a 0.4 percent increase in the previous estimate. Most likely, the partial shutdown which began on December 22nd and reduced services provided by the federal government, contributed to such a fall.

Considering full 2018, the economy advanced 2.9 percent, above 2.2 percent in 2017 and the highest growth rate since 2015. The biggest upward contribution came from personal spending (1.8 percentage points compared to 1.81 percentage points in the previous estimate), followed by fixed investment (0.9 percentage points compared to 0.91 percentage points); public expenditure (0.26 percentage poitns, the same as in the previous estimate); and inventories (0.12 percentage points, the same as in the previous estimate). On the other hand, net trade subtracted 0.21 percentage points to growth, compared to -0.22 percentage points in the previous estimate.


BEA | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
3/28/2019 1:29:00 PM



United States GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 3.40 16.70 -10.00 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00 3.00 13.40 -3.90 percent [+]
GDP 19390.60 18624.48 19390.60 543.30 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 18765.26 18664.97 18765.26 2184.87 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 19007.61 18908.02 19007.61 2199.23 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3357.50 3331.79 3357.50 1215.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 53128.54 52319.20 53128.54 17036.90 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45 53399.40 54225.45 36543.08 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 213.70 212.00 236.10 168.40 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 642.70 646.00 794.50 531.70 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2154.90 2139.80 2154.90 1798.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 465.80 429.80 472.80 241.80 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2179.80 2180.70 2188.00 2089.50 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 12887.20 12821.80 12887.20 9734.70 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 543.50 545.70 545.70 429.60 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 281.30 280.80 291.30 217.20 USD Billion [+]


United States GDP Growth Rate

On the expenditure side, personal consumption expenditures accounts for 68 percent of total GDP out of which purchases of goods constitute 23 percent and services 45 percent. Private investment accounts for 16 percent of GDP and government consumption and investment for 18 percent. As the value of goods exported (13.5 percent) is lower than the value of goods imported (16.5 percent), net exports subtracts 3 percent from the total GDP value. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States GDP Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.20 3.40 16.70 -10.00 1947 - 2018 percent Quarterly




Country Last Previous
United States 2.20 Dec/18
Singapore 2.00 Mar/19
India 1.60 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 1.60 Sep/18
China 1.40 Mar/19
South Africa 1.40 Dec/18
Russia 0.80 Dec/18
Spain 0.60 Dec/18
Japan 0.50 Dec/18
Netherlands 0.50 Dec/18
France 0.30 Dec/18
Australia 0.20 Dec/18
Euro Area 0.20 Dec/18
Mexico 0.20 Dec/18
Switzerland 0.20 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.20 Dec/18
Brazil 0.10 Dec/18
Canada 0.10 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Italy -0.10 Dec/18
South Korea -0.30 Mar/19
Argentina -1.20 Dec/18
Indonesia -1.69 Dec/18
Turkey -2.40 Dec/18


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