The mean unemployment expectations in the US, the average perceived probability that the unemployment rate will be higher one year from now, decreased by 0.5 ppt to 43.9% in September 2026 but remained above the 12-month trailing average of 42.4%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.3 ppt to 13.5%, the lowest reading since December 2024. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Unemployment Expectations in the United States averaged 37.80 percent from 2013 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 50.90 percent in March of 2020 and a record low of 30.70 percent in June of 2021. United States Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations - values, historical data and charts - was last updated on October of 2026.

Related	Last	Previous	Unit	Reference
Earnings Growth Expectations	2.60	2.90	percent	Sep 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.90	3.60	percent	Sep 2026
3-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.30	3.20	percent	Sep 2026
5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.00	3.00	percent	Sep 2026
Unemployment Rate	4.20	4.10	percent	Sep 2026

United States Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations

Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations (1 Year Ahead) captures the average probability, as perceived by survey respondents, that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now. It is drawn from a nationally-representative internet-based panel of about 1,300 household heads, conducted monthly by the New York Fed.