Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 4.8%, climbing off from four-month lows as markets continued to wager on near-term US rate hikes, while paring back expectations for further tightening at home. The sharp de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices back to pre-war levels, easing inflation risks and prompting markets to scale back expectations for further rate hikes in Australia. An August move by the Reserve Bank is now priced in at just 15% chance, while markets see a 50% probability that the tightening cycle has ended. Meanwhile, bond markets came under pressure after US Treasury yields surged as investors increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of Thursday's crucial jobs report, with a September move now almost fully priced in. This came despite Fed Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation expectations had eased over the past month.

The yield on Australia 10Y Bond Yield rose to 4.81% on July 2, 2026, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.11 points, though it remains 0.63 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all time high of 16.50 in August of 1982. Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on July 2 of 2026.

The yield on Australia 10Y Bond Yield rose to 4.81% on July 2, 2026, marking a 0.02 percentage points increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.11 points, though it remains 0.63 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield is expected to trade at 4.61 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.50 in 12 months time.



Bonds Yield Day Month Year Date
Australia 10Y 4.82 0.045% -0.100% 0.631% Jul/02
Australia 52W 4.54 -0.001% -0.098% 1.184% Jul/02
Australia 20Y 5.29 0.035% -0.054% 0.534% Jul/02
Australia 2Y 4.47 -0.001% -0.138% 1.227% Jul/02
Australia 30Y 5.38 0.037% -0.029% 0.519% Jul/02
Australia 3Y 4.43 0.018% -0.143% 1.137% Jul/02
Australia 5Y 4.46 0.008% -0.145% 0.969% Jul/02
Australia 7Y 4.61 0.023% -0.124% 0.777% Jul/02



Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Australia Inflation Rate 4.00 4.20 percent May 2026
Australia Interest Rate 4.35 4.35 percent Jun 2026
Australia Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.50 percent May 2026

Australia 10-Year Government Bond Yield
Generally, a government bond is issued by a national government and is denominated in the country`s own currency. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.81 4.79 16.50 0.56 1969 - 2026 percent Daily

News Stream
AUS 10Y Yield Rises from 4-Month Lows
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 4.8%, climbing off from four-month lows as markets continued to wager on near-term US rate hikes, while paring back expectations for further tightening at home. The sharp de-escalation of the Middle East conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices back to pre-war levels, easing inflation risks and prompting markets to scale back expectations for further rate hikes in Australia. An August move by the Reserve Bank is now priced in at just 15% chance, while markets see a 50% probability that the tightening cycle has ended. Meanwhile, bond markets came under pressure after US Treasury yields surged as investors increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of Thursday's crucial jobs report, with a September move now almost fully priced in. This came despite Fed Chair Kevin Warsh saying inflation expectations had eased over the past month.
2026-07-02
AUS 10Y Yield Remains Subdued Despite Hawkish RBA
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield traded around 4.7%, remaining near four-month lows as lower oil prices and wagers of US rate hikes outweighed the RBA’s restrictive policy stance. Minutes from the Reserve Bank's June meeting showed policymakers agreed rates should remain restrictive to curb excess demand and bring inflation back to target even as economic growth slowed. The board also said they are prepared to raise rates further if needed as developments in the Middle East still pose upside risks to inflation. Despite the hawkish tone, the recent retreat in oil prices have led investors to pare the risk of another rate hike at the August meeting to around 15%, with markets also starting to price in rate cuts as early as mid-2027. Meanwhile, mounting bets on US rate hikes have helped Aussie bonds outperform Treasuries, shrinking the yield premium. Strong US economic data underscored the economy’s resilience, prompting markets to price in a rate hike as early as September.
2026-06-30
Australia 10Y Yield Stays Near 4-Month Low
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose above 4.7%, but remained near a four-month low as markets pared back expectations of further domestic rate hikes, while renewed Middle East tensions reignited inflation concerns. Although the US and Iran agreed to pause further attacks after the recent exchange of strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices climbed as the latest escalation disrupted the recovery in oil shipments through the strategic waterway that had followed an earlier interim agreement. In Australia, focus turns to Tuesday's release of minutes from the Reserve Bank’s most recent interest-rate setting meeting. The central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its June meeting following three rate hikes earlier this year. Despite a rebound in employment data, recent mixed inflation figures left the markets split on another rate hike, implied around 50% by year-end, while some have started pricing in rate cuts in the second half of 2027.
2026-06-29