U.S. Retail Sales

US retail trade rose by 0.2 percent from a month earlier in January 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.6 percent decline in December and beating market expectations of a flat reading. Sales rebounded for sporting goods, musical instruments and books. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales went up 1.1 percent in January after a downwardly revised 2.3 percent fall in December. Year-on-year, retail trade grew 2.3 percent. Retail Sales MoM in the United States averaged 0.35 percent from 1992 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.70 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -3.90 percent in November of 2008.

Retail Sales MoM in the United States is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United States to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the U.S. Retail Sales is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Calendar	GMT		Actual	Previous	Consensus	TEForecast
2018-11-15	01:30 PM	Retail Sales MoM	0.8%	-0.1%	0.5%	0.5%
2018-12-14	01:30 PM	Retail Sales MoM	0.2%	1.1%	0.2%	0.3%
2019-02-14	01:30 PM	Retail Sales MoM	-1.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%
2019-03-11	12:30 PM	Retail Sales MoM	0.2%	-1.6%	0%	0.3%
2019-04-01	12:30 PM	Retail Sales MoM		0.2%		0.2%
2019-04-18	12:30 PM	Retail Sales MoM				0.3%
2019-05-15	12:30 PM	Retail Sales MoM

US Retail Sales Rebound in January

US retail trade rose by 0.2 percent from a month earlier in January 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.6 percent decline in December and beating market expectations of a flat reading. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rebounded 1.1 percent in January after a downwardly revised 2.3 percent decrease in December.

8 of 13 major retail categories showed month-over-month gains.

Receipts at online and mail-order retail sales rebounded by 2.6 percent, the biggest gain since December 2017, after declining 5.0 percent in December. Also, sales at building material stores went up 3.3 percent, the most since September 2017, following a 0.5 percent increase in December. In addition, receipts at hobby, musical instrument and book stores rose 4.8 percent, the largest gain since January 2013, recovering from a 6.1 percent fall in December. At the same time, sales rebounded at miscellaneous stores (0.1 percent vs -5.3 percent); food & beverage (1.1 percent vs -0.3 percent); health & personal care (1.6 percent vs -2.3 percent); and general merchandise (0.8 percent vs -1.5 percent). Also, spending decreased at a softer pace at: furniture & home furniture stores (-1.2 percent vs -1.3 percent); electronics & appliance (-0.3 percent vs -1.2 percent); and service stations (-2.0 percent vs -5.7 percent).

Meanwhile, receipts at auto dealerships decreased 2.4 percent, the biggest drop since January 2014, after rising 0.3 percent in the previous month and sales dropped further at clothing and furniture stores (-1.3 percent vs -1.2 percent).

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rebounded 1.1 percent in January after a downwardly revised 2.3 percent plunge in December. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP.

Year-on-year, retail trade grew 2.3 percent, following a downwardly revised 1.6 percent gain in the prior month.

US Census Bureau | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
3/11/2019 1:07:03 PM

News

US Retail Sales Post Biggest Drop in Over 9 Years
US retail trade fell by 1.2 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, following a revised 0.1 percent growth in November and missing market expectations of 0.2 percent gain. It was the steepest decline in retail sales since September 2009.
Published on 2019-02-14

US Retail Sales Rise 0.2% in November
US retail trade rose by 0.2 percent from a month earlier in November 2018, following an upwardly revised 1.1 percent growth in October and matching market expectations. An increase in sales of furniture, electronics and a range of other goods was partially offset by a decline in trade at gasoline stations on the back of cheaper fuel prices.
Published on 2018-12-14

US Retail Sales Rise the Most in 5 Months
US retail trade rose by 0.8 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a revised 0.1 percent drop in September and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent gain. This was the largest increase in retail trade since May.
Published on 2018-11-15

US Retail Sales Rise Much Less than Anticipated
Retail sales in the United States edged up 0.1 percent month-over-month in September of 2018, the same as in the previous month and well below market expectations of a 0.6 percent rise. Spending at restaurants and bars went down 1.8 percent, the most since December of 2016.
Published on 2018-10-15

United States Consumer	Last	Previous	Highest	Lowest	Unit
Consumer Confidence	97.80	93.80	111.40	51.70	Index Points	[+]
Retail Sales MoM	0.20	-1.60	6.70	-3.90	percent	[+]
Retail Sales YoY	2.30	1.60	11.20	-11.50	percent	[+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos	0.90	-2.10	2.60	-4.00	percent	[+]
Consumer Spending	13044.25	12953.29	13044.25	1403.69	USD Billion	[+]
Disposable Personal Income	15907.00	15942.18	15942.18	351.54	USD Billion	[+]
Personal Spending	-0.50	0.60	2.80	-2.10	percent	[+]
Personal Income	-0.10	1.00	4.60	-4.70	percent	[+]
Personal Savings	7.60	6.10	17.30	2.20	percent	[+]
Consumer Credit	17.05	15.36	118.08	-113.42	USD Billion	[+]
Private Sector Credit	9668.03	9630.97	9668.03	39.04	USD Billion	[+]
Bank Lending Rate	5.50	5.50	20.50	2.00	percent	[+]
Economic Optimism Index	55.70	50.30	62.90	35.80		[+]
Redbook Index	4.90	4.40	9.30	-5.80	percent	[+]
Chain Store Sales	7611.00	5637.00	15875.00	3055.00	USD Million	[+]
Gasoline Prices	0.61	0.59	1.07	0.24	USD/Liter	[+]
Households Debt To GDP	76.40	76.60	98.60	23.80	percent of GDP	[+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions	113.20	112.50	121.10	57.50		[+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations	80.20	83.90	108.60	44.20		[+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends	2.70	2.60	10.40	0.40		[+]

Retail sales report in the US provides aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a period of a month. There are thirteen major types of retailers: Motor vehicle & parts dealers (around 20 percent of total sales), Food & beverage stores (13%), General merchandise stores (12.5%), Food services & drinking places (11%), Gasoline stations (10%), Nonstore retailers (9.2%), Building material & garden dealers (6%), Health & personal care stores (6%), Clothing & clothing accessories stores (5%), Miscellaneous store retailers (2.3%), Furniture stores (2%), Electronics & appliance stores (2%) and Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (1.7%). This page provides - U.S. December Retail Sales Increased More Than Forecast - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. U.S. Retail Sales - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.