US retail trade rose by 0.8 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a revised 0.1 percent drop in September and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent gain. This was the largest increase in retail trade since May mainly boosted by purchases of motor vehicles and building materials amid efforts to rebuild areas affected by Hurricane Florence, and fuel on the back of higher gasoline prices. Retail Sales MoM in the United States averaged 0.36 percent from 1992 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.70 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -3.90 percent in November of 2008.

Retail Sales MoM in the United States is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in the United States to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the U.S. Retail Sales is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

U.S. Retail Sales
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-08-15 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
2018-09-14 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%
2018-10-15 12:30 PM Retail Sales MoM 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3%
2018-11-15 01:30 PM Retail Sales MoM 0.8% -0.1% 0.5% 0.5%
2018-12-14 01:30 PM Retail Sales MoM 0.8% 0.2% 0.3%
2019-01-16 01:30 PM Retail Sales MoM 0.50%
2019-02-15 01:30 PM Retail Sales MoM



US Retail Sales Rise the Most in 5 Months



US retail trade rose by 0.8 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a revised 0.1 percent drop in September and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent gain. This was the largest increase in retail trade since May.

10 of 13 major retail categories showed month-over-month increases.

Sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers rebounded 1.1 percent in October (vs -0.1 percent in September), likely as residents in areas affected by Florence replaced damaged cars, and those at gasoline stations jumped 3.5 percent (vs -0.4 percent in September) on the back of higher gasoline prices. In addition, spending at building material stores advanced 1 percent (vs 0.1 percent in September) probably boosted by rebuilding efforts in areas devastated by Florence, and receipts at electronics & appliance stores surged 0.7 percent (vs -1.5 percent in September). Sales also rose at: food & beverage stores (0.3 percent vs 0.4 percent); clothing & clothing accessories stores (0.5 percent vs 0.8 percent); hobby, musical instrument and book stores (0.5 percent vs -1.3 percent); general merchandise stores (0.5 percent vs flat reading); miscellaneous store retailers (0.6 percent vs -0.5 percent); online and mail-order retail trade (0.4 percent vs 1.3 percent).

Meanwhile, receipts at furniture & home furniture stores fell 0.3 percent (vs 0.5 percent in September) and those at restaurants and bars dropped 0.2 percent (vs -1.5 percent in September). Spending at health & personal care stores was unchanged last month (vs -0.1 percent in September).

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales advanced 0.3 percent in October after a downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in September.

Year-on-year, retail trade grew 4.6 percent in October, compared with a 4.2 percent rise in September.



US Census Bureau | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/15/2018 2:07:25 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 97.50 97.50 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 -0.10 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.60 4.20 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.70 -0.10 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 12957.22 12842.02 12957.22 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15700.50 15650.96 15700.50 351.90 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.60 0.20 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.50 0.20 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.20 6.20 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 25.38 22.88 118.08 -113.42 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9446.76 9412.35 9463.65 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.25 5.25 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 52.60 56.40 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 6.60 7.00 7.90 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3812.00 3980.00 15875.00 3055.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.74 0.99 0.32 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 77.30 78.00 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


U.S. Retail Sales

Retail sales report in the US provides aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a period of a month. There are thirteen major types of retailers: Motor vehicle & parts dealers (around 20 percent of total sales), Food & beverage stores (13%), General merchandise stores (12.5%), Food services & drinking places (11%), Gasoline stations (10%), Nonstore retailers (9.2%), Building material & garden dealers (6%), Health & personal care stores (6%), Clothing & clothing accessories stores (5%), Miscellaneous store retailers (2.3%), Furniture stores (2%), Electronics & appliance stores (2%) and Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (1.7%). This page provides - U.S. December Retail Sales Increased More Than Forecast - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. U.S. Retail Sales - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.80 -0.10 6.70 -3.90 1992 - 2018 percent Monthly
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