Canada’s 10-year government bond yield fell to a fresh three-month low of 3.16%, as an unexpected economic slump fueled expectations for a more accommodative monetary stance. While markets originally anticipated a flat reading, Statistics Canada reported that the economy shrank by 0.6% in the final quarter of 2025, marking the weakest annual performance in nearly a decade. This contraction was largely triggered by a massive $23.5 billion inventory drawdown and a sharp drop in exports. The resulting downward pressure on yields has been amplified by a global bond rally amid shifting trade policies. Although the US implemented a 10% global surcharge under Section 122, the exemptions for trade-compliant Canadian goods have helped stabilize the local debt market compared to other international peers. With inflation already slowing to 2.3%, the combination of negative growth and secured trade status has reinforced the Bank of Canada's decision to keep its policy rate at 2.25%.
The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.13% on February 27, 2026, marking a 0.05 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.30 points, though it remains 0.23 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all time high of 12.44 in March of 1985. Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on March 2 of 2026.
The yield on Canada 10Y Bond Yield eased to 3.13% on February 27, 2026, marking a 0.05 percentage points decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.30 points, though it remains 0.23 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The Canada 10-Year Government Bond Yield is expected to trade at 3.11 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2.91 in 12 months time.