Crude oil rebounded 2% to near $88 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering from a 10-week low driven by persistent tensions in the Middle East and limited progress in peace negotiations. Iran reiterated that it would not surrender any enriched nuclear material, highlighting a key obstacle to talks, while Tehran denied that negotiations with Washington were underway despite President Donald Trump’s suggestion that further US strikes might not be necessary. Meanwhile, Saudi crude production rose 26% in October to 10.56 million barrels per day, its highest level since the war began. In the US, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories increased by 9 million barrels last week, while distillate stocks gained 1.5 million barrels. Separately, the EIA raised its 2027 forecasts for average US gasoline and diesel prices to $3.73 and $5.03 per gallon, respectively, but maintained its domestic crude production estimate at 14.3 million barrels per day.

US stocks gained on Wednesday as strong results from CoreWeave drove markets to reconsider their skepticism on the AI trade. The S&P 500 rose nearly 1% and the Nasdaq gained almost 2%, while the Dow hovered above the flatline. CoreWeave shares surged 15% after posting strong sales growth and upgrading its guidance, easing concerns over its debt levels that served as a bellwether for the cloud-computing sector. Meanwhile, reports indicated strong oversubscription for Anthropic’s IPO expected by next week, which now targets a valuation of $1.5 trillion, supporting AI companies. Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Intel, and Micron rose up to 7%. Other sectors were steady, with thin trading as the Veterans Day holiday had fixed-income security exchanges closed. Corporate yields surged yesterday after a hot inflation reading consolidated bets of multiple rate hikes by the Fed next year.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production surged 26% to 10.56 million barrels per day in October, its highest level since before the outbreak of the war, as Gulf producers continued restoring supplies despite ongoing regional tensions. Output is now only a few hundred thousand barrels per day below February levels and slightly above the kingdom’s OPEC quota. The recovery reflects Riyadh’s growing ability to move tankers through the Strait of Hormuz using coordinated shuttle operations, as well as its use of an alternative pipeline to the Red Sea coast despite attacks on the route. Rising exports are increasing the availability of physical crude at a time when consumption remains subdued, raising signs of a potential surplus. The production rebound also comes as OPEC reviews members’ capacity to help determine output limits for 2027. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the company aims to maximize production in the fourth quarter, expecting inventory restocking to support global demand.

The dollar index extended its gains to 102.9 on Wednesday, following a 0.5% advance in the previous session, reaching its highest level since April 2025. The rally came as investors increasingly priced in a more aggressive pace of Fed rate hikes in the coming months, following hotter-than-expected inflation data and increasingly hawkish remarks from central bank officials. Adding to the hawkish tone, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that a 50bps rate hike in December could be warranted, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan backed at least two further 25bps increases. Markets currently assign an approximately 86% probability to a 25bps hike at the Fed’s December meeting, while investors are also beginning to factor in additional increases in January and potentially April. Meanwhile, oil prices recovered, trimming losses following a two-day decline. The greenback strengthened against all major currencies, posting its largest gains against the Swiss franc and the Euro.

Brazil’s services output fell 0.1% month-on-month in September 2026, following a flat reading in August, but declining less than market expectations of a 0.3% decline. Despite the contraction, activity remained 19.8% above its pre-pandemic level and just 0.4% below its record high reached in October 2025. A further contraction in transportation services (-0.5% vs -0.1%) led the decline, reflecting lower revenues from road and rail freight, air passenger transport and logistics. Information and communication services also fell 0.5% after a 0.1% decrease, dragged down by weaker revenues in IT services and film exhibition. In contrast, professional, administrative and complementary services grew 0.5% after 0.2% gain, while other services advanced 1.0%, rebounding from a 1.4% contraction. On an annual basis, services output declined 0.1%, following a 0.6% increase in August, ending a 29-month streak of consecutive growth.

Mexico’s industrial production rose 1.3% year-on-year in September 2026, the weakest reading since May, slowing from 3.5% in August and well below market expectations of 3.4%. Manufacturing activity lost momentum, rising 0.6% after a 3.2% gain, as output of petroleum and coal products increased just 0.4% following a 21.4% jump, while basic metals fell 4.8%. Construction also slowed to 4.9% from 7.5%, as a 7.8% drop in specialized construction work partly offset a 29.2% surge in civil engineering works. Meanwhile, mining output fell 1.4%, deepening from a 0.8% decline, dragged by lower oil and gas extraction (-1.8% vs. -0.1%), while utilities rose 3.4%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial activity dropped 1.4%, the sharpest decline since October 2024, after a 0.2% gain in August.