The annual US inflation rate is expected to have held steady at 3.4% in August 2026, matching the July reading. On a monthly basis, CPI is forecast to rise 0.4%, the strongest increase in three months, following a 0.1% gain in July. Gasoline prices are expected to have climbed nearly 3%, while grocery prices are also projected to rebound. Airfares are likely to remain elevated amid higher fuel costs, while housing costs are expected to continue showing signs of softness. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to rise 0.2% mom, matching July’s increase, and 2.4% yoy, which would mark the lowest reading since March 2021, down from 2.5% in July. Overall, inflation is expected to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Brent crude slipped below $105 a barrel on Friday but remained almost 9% higher for the week as investors weighed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions around the Strait of Hormuz against continued fighting across the Middle East. Gulf foreign ministers are expected to meet their Iranian counterpart in Oman on Monday as part of efforts to secure support for a temporary arrangement to manage shipping through the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency sharply downgraded its outlook for oil demand, forecasting a 2.5 million-barrel-a-day contraction in 2026, the largest annual decline since the Covid-19 pandemic as higher fuel prices and tighter supplies weigh on consumption. The IEA said demand could fall further if the Iran conflict persists. OPEC has also reduced its 2026 demand-growth forecast for a fifth consecutive time. However, renewed advances by Iran-backed Houthi militants towards the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have raised fresh concerns over supply disruptions.

European stocks moved higher on Friday, with the STOXX 50 gaining 0.5% and the STOXX 600 rising 0.3%, following losses in the previous sessions that pushed both benchmarks to July-lows. The gains came as oil prices edged lower, although tensions in the Middle East remained elevated. Banking stocks were among the top performers, with Banco Santander rising 1.3% and BBVA gaining 1%. Industrial and aerospace stocks also advanced, led by Airbus (+1.6%), Safran (+2.0%) and Siemens (+1.1%). SAP, however, fell 1.6%. Despite Friday’s rebound, European equities posted a sharp weekly decline. The STOXX 50 fell 1.9% over the week, while the STOXX 600 dropped 2.2%, marking their biggest weekly losses since April. Rising energy costs have fueled concerns about a renewed pickup in inflation, increasing pressure on central banks to maintain a tighter monetary policy. The ECB raised borrowing costs by 25bps yesterday, as expected. Markets are now pricing in three additional rate hikes by March 2027.

Switzerland's consumer confidence index rose to -33 in August 2026 from -40 in the same month a year earlier, pointing to an improvement in household confidence but remaining slightly below market expectations of -32. This marked the least negative reading since February, with the biggest improvement coming from the economic outlook, as the corresponding index rose to -36 from -66 in August last year. Meanwhile, sentiment around the past financial situation improved modestly to -39 from -40, while the financial outlook weakened slightly to -30 from -29. The index measuring whether it was a good time to make major purchases also declined to -26 from -24, suggesting households remained cautious about discretionary spending. The overall reading also improved from the previous month, when the index stood at -35.

The Netherlands’ trade surplus widened to EUR 10.9 billion in July 2026 from EUR 9.0 billion in the same month a year earlier. Exports rose 13.6% year-on-year to EUR 75.2 billion, driven by higher shipments to both the EU (+9.2%) and non-EU countries (+12.5%). Among commodities, outbound shipments increased the most for animal and vegetable oils and fats (+33.3%), machinery and equipment (+26.3%), mineral fuels and lubricants (+20.2%), and chemical products (+15.9%). Meanwhile, imports grew 8.9% to EUR 62.2 billion, lifted by increased purchases from both the EU (+7.5%) and non-EU countries (+10.2%). Import growth was supported by machinery and equipment (+19.5%), animal and vegetable oils and fats (+19.4%), mineral fuels and lubricants (+12.7%), and beverages and tobacco (+12.7%). In the January–July period, the Dutch trade surplus stood at EUR 67.0 billion, as exports rose 5.6%, while imports grew 4.8%.

Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers rose to 7.6% in the third quarter of 2026 from -1.8% in Q2, far above market expectations of 2.5%. It was the fastest pace of improvement since Q4 2021, amid government efforts to boost GDP growth and stronger government spending. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to continue to expand, though at a softer rate, to 5.8% in Q4 and 4.9% in Q1 2027. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role. The Bank of Japan raised its FY2026 GDP growth projection to 0.6% from 0.5% at its latest meeting, due to resilient domestic demand amid the government’s support measures. However, the board warned that underlying inflation could exceed the 2% target amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. For FY2027, the BoJ lifted its inflation forecast to 2.4% from 2.3%, while raising its GDP growth outlook to 0.8% from 0.7%.