Sales of new single-family homes in the US increased 1.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 628 thousand in June 2026, following a revised 4.3% drop to 618 thousand in May and compared to forecasts of 610 thousand. The increase, the first in three months, likely reflected continued discounting by builders, who have been offering incentives and reducing prices to support demand amid challenging market conditions. Sales rose in the South (9.9% to 412 thousand), the Northeast (3.6% to 29 thousand), and the Midwest (2.5% to 83 thousand), but fell 22.4% to 104 thousand in the West. Meanwhile, housing supply edged down 0.2% to 485,000 units, equivalent to 9.3 months of supply at the last sales rate. Also, the median sales price of homes was at $398,300, compared to $412,000 in May and $409,200 a year earlier.

US equity indices closed mixed on Friday as investors assessed corporate earnings and the outlook for interest rates. The S&P 500 inched higher, the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.1%, and the Dow added 236 points. Oil prices eased but remained sharply higher on the week as escalating strikes between the US and Iran disrupted tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. Treasury yields followed energy prices higher as investors increased bets that persistent energy-driven inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week. Intel fell 7.9% despite posting its strongest revenue growth in 17 years, reflecting continued volatility in semiconductor stocks following their sharp rally since the second quarter. Concerns over AI-related capital spending also weighed on hyperscalers, with Tesla down 2.1%, and Meta slipping 1.8%. Elsewhere, Amex fell 4.3% after reporting earnings, while Verizon gained 5.8% after posting stronger-than-expected subscriber growth.

The conflict between the US and Iran will remain in the spotlight as signs that talks could restart weighed against repeated strikes and naval blockades against vessels crossing maritime chokepoints, lifting energy prices and global inflation. Earnings by major companies should also dictate equity movements, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Samsung. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will set its July policy decision. This coincides with Q2 GDP data and the income and outlays report. Other US data includes CB consumer confidence, the trade balance, and employment costs. Similarly, the Bank of England will set its Bank Rate and the Eurozone is set to release GDP and inflation data. A busy week in Asia will be headlined by the Bank of Japan rate decision, while statistical authorities share industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment. The Chinese Communist Party will host its July Politburo meeting as a mid-year checkup. China will also post PMIs.

Crude oil fell 3% to around $89.3 per barrel on Friday after reports that Pakistan, with support from China, was seeking to revive negotiations between the US and Iran, raising hopes for a diplomatic path to ease tensions. According to reports, Chinese officials are increasingly concerned that attacks on Gulf states and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are hurting their economic interests. Despite the decline, crude oil remained up roughly 8% for the week after a sharp escalation in Middle East hostilities. Overnight, US Central Command carried out its 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting military infrastructure and maritime capabilities. The US military said the waterway remains open with American support. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump warned he was considering an unprecedented military response against Iran and vowed severe retaliation if Tehran backed further Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

The industrial producer price index in Canada fell by 1.4% from the previous month in June of 2026, the sharpest decline since December of 2023, to erase part of the surge in producer prices since January. The brief restoration of energy supply from the Middle East after the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US drove fuel prices to slide in the month. The energy and petroleum sector of the CPI slid by 9.1%. Meanwhile, prices also fell for non-ferrous metal products (-4.7%) and meat, fish, and dairy products (-0.2%). The Canadian IPPI surged by 13.6% annually, the highest since 2022, as fuel prices remained elevated despite the monthly pullback. Energy and petroleum prices were 36.8% higher, while those for chemical products were 18% up.

The Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 25bps to 14.0% in its July 2026 decision, to extend its cutting cycle since the rate was at a record high of 21% up to June of last year. The central bank noted that monetary conditions remained moderately tight despite the elevated level of real rates. The economy grew only at a moderate pace so far in 2026 as robust consumer demand was offset by declining capacity in key sectors, partially due to fuel shortages as Ukrainian forces struck major refineries across Russia. Consequently, the latest data showed the first annual contraction in the GDP in three years in Q1. Meanwhile, the CBR noted that underlying inflation was steady at levels close to the 4% mark. The surge in fuel costs were deemed temporary and one-off by the CBR, although policymakers remained attentive to growing inflation expectations due to the growing budget deficit by the government.