The Bank of England voted by a majority of 8-1 to raise the key bank rate by 25bps to 4% in November 2026, in line with expectations. It is the first increase in borrowing costs since August 2023, with one policymaker, Catherine Mann, voting for a hike of 0.5 percentage points to 4.25%. UK inflation is now expected to rise to around 5% by the middle of next year from the current 3.5%. It is then projected to fall as the impact of rising energy prices fades, and still restrictive monetary policy bears down on inflation. In addition, activity data in recent months have generally been stronger than expected, adding to the case for modestly tighter monetary policy. Policymakers added that monetary policy is not on a pre-set path and the Committee will continue to assess the evidence at each meeting and will adjust Bank Rate as necessary to ensure CPI inflation returns to the 2% target in the medium term.

Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 6,000 to 189,000 in the final week of October, below market expectations of 196,000 and down from a revised 195,000 in the previous week. The reading matched the 57-year low recorded in mid-July, pointing to continued labor market resilience despite mounting economic headwinds. Robust corporate profits and resilient domestic demand are helping limit layoffs, while employers remain cautious about staffing changes amid uncertainty over the Iran war, elevated energy costs, Fed policy and trade policy. Meanwhile, continuing claims increased by 23,000 to 1.718 million in the week ended October 24.

US nonfarm business sector labor productivity climbed by 3.6% in the third quarter of 2026, marking the strongest increase since Q3 2025 and comfortably beating expectations of a 2.8% rise. The figure also marked an acceleration from the upwardly revised 2.1% gain in Q2. The improvement was driven by a 3.7% increase in output, while hours worked rose just 0.1%, pointing to stronger production relative to labour input. In the manufacturing sector, productivity rose 0.3%, as a 2.2% increase in durable goods productivity was partly offset by a 1.7% decline in nondurable goods. Durable goods productivity benefited from a 3.8% increase in output against a 1.6% rise in hours worked, while nondurable goods output fell 1.6% and hours worked increased 0.1%. Compared with the same quarter a year earlier, nonfarm business productivity grew by 2.1%.

Crude oil prices rose for the first time in four sessions on Thursday, climbing to around $89.50 a barrel after plunging more than 8% to a near two-month low in the previous session. Traders continue to assess whether the Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections could improve prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the war with Iran. US Vice President JD Vance said voter frustration over the conflict and the US relationship with Israel had contributed to the Republicans' electoral defeat. Ahead of the election results on Tuesday, President Trump said he had no immediate plans to escalate military strikes. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks to supply remain elevated despite a recovery in exports from Gulf producers. Adding to concerns, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Thursday that two oil tankers and a tugboat had caught fire in separate incidents after allegedly attempting to navigate unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mexico’s consumer confidence fell 0.1 point to 45.0 in October 2026 from September, remaining negative. The decline was mild, as two of the five components improved. Expectations for households’ economic situation over the next 12 months rose 0.5 point to 58.2, while households’ willingness to purchase durable goods, such as furniture and appliances, edged up 0.3 point to 32.4. In contrast, households’ assessment of their current economic situation slipped 0.1 point to 51.8. Assessments of the country’s current economic situation declined 0.5 point to 38.5, and expectations for the country’s economic outlook over the next 12 months also fell 0.5 point to 44.3. Year over year, consumer confidence declined 0.6 point.

US-based employers announced 43,994 job cuts in October 2026, up 2% from 43,281 cuts in September, but down 71% from last year and the lowest for an October month since 2023. It is the eighth month this year in which cuts came in below the same month one year earlier. Food companies led all industries in the amount of cuts (9,677), followed by technology (5,576) and services (5,458). Through October, employers have announced 617,189 job cuts, down 44% year-on-year. It is the lowest year-to-date total through October since 2022, when 243,338 cuts were announced. The tech sector leads all industries with 171,501 cuts up 21% yoy. “This is a low-fire environment. Employers are holding on to the workers they have heading into the holidays, and the hiring they are announcing is largely short-term, seasonal work. Companies want the flexibility to meet holiday demand without adding permanent headcount,” said Andy Challenger, from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.