US producer prices are expected to rise 0.4% month-over-month in August 2026, marking the strongest increase in three months after remaining unchanged in July, signalling a renewed acceleration in producer-level inflation. Core producer prices, which exclude the more volatile food and energy components, are forecast to rise 0.3% mom, accelerating from the 0.2% increase recorded in July. On an annual basis, headline PPI inflation is expected to accelerate to 5.3%, up from 4.7% in July, while core producer inflation is projected to increase to 4.6% from 4.2%.

The European Central Bank is expected to raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, marking the second hike since the US-Iran war began, while signaling caution over further increases that could weigh on economic activity. The main refinancing rate is expected to rise to 2.65%, and the deposit rate to 2.5%. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, its highest level in three years and well above the ECB’s 2% target. However, there have been few signs of the second-round inflation effects policymakers typically fear when energy prices surge, as they have since the war closed the Strait of Hormuz. Economists remain unconvinced that further tightening will be necessary, warning that additional hikes could risk recession. Interest-rate futures, however, are pricing in a third hike by December, while policymakers continue to flag upside risks to inflation and the recent rise in bond yields adds further uncertainty to the policy outlook.

South Africa posted a current account deficit of ZAR 205.5 billion in Q2 2026, the widest since Q4 2015, compared to a surplus of ZAR 181.6 billion in the previous period. The quarter was the first to fully capture the impact of the war in Iran, which pushed up energy prices and import costs. The trade surplus narrowed sharply to ZAR 146.4 billion from ZAR 428.8 billion in Q1, as the value of merchandise imports far outpaced that of merchandise and net gold exports. The increase in the import bill was driven largely by an 82% surge in the value of crude oil imports, reflecting South Africa’s high reliance on imported fuel. Concurrently, the shortfall on the services, income and current transfer account widened sharply to ZAR 351.9 billion from ZAR 247.2 billion, mainly attributed to a substantial increase in the primary income deficit. As a ratio of GDP, the country's current account balance shifted to a deficit of 2.6% in Q2 from a surplus of 2.3% in Q1.

Italy’s industrial production rose 0.7% month-on-month in July 2026, rebounding from a revised 1.1% drop in June and beating market forecasts for a 0.3% gain. Output rebounded for consumer goods (2.1% vs -0.5% in June), intermediate goods (0.5% vs -0.8%), and capital goods (0.2% vs -2.0%). Meanwhile, energy production fell 0.9%, reversing a 0.2% increase in the previous month. On a yearly basis, industrial output was unchanged, following a 0.6% fall in June and outperforming market expectations for a 0.6% drop. Energy production rose sharply (6.4% vs 0.9%), while smaller declines were seen in intermediate goods (-0.8% vs -1%) and consumer goods (-1.2% vs -3.2%). Capital goods edged down 0.1%, following a 0.8% increase previously. Among sectors, the energy sector recorded the strongest annual increase, rising 7.6%, followed closely by the production of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, which increased 7.4%.

European stocks edged higher on Thursday, with the STOXX 600 gaining around 0.2% and the STOXX 50 also up 0.2%, following losses of more than 1% in the previous session. Investors await the ECB’s monetary policy decision later in the day, with markets widely expecting a 25bps rate hike. The focus will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s guidance on the policy outlook, particularly whether policymakers signal that further rate increases could be needed as inflationary pressures intensify. Surging energy prices have complicated the outlook, with Brent crude trading above $101 a barrel. Banking stocks were among the stronger performers, with Societe Generale rising around 1.6%, Deutsche Bank gaining 1.3% and Banco Santander adding 0.7%. In contrast, the tech sector was under pressure, with ASML losing 1.1%. SAP was among the biggest decliners, falling around 3%.

Industrial production in Turkey fell 0.3% year-on-year in July 2026, easing from a downwardly revised 1.3% drop in June, but marking the third consecutive month of decline. Output fell further in mining and quarrying, by 3.8% following a 1.4% decline in June, while electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply decreased 5.6% after rising 1.1% previously. Offsetting these declines, manufacturing activity rebounded 0.3% (vs. -1.4%), as output recovered for the manufacture of tobacco products (1.1% vs. -2.8%), leather and related products (0.2% vs. -3.1%), computer, electronic and optical products (4.4% vs. -5.6%), and machinery and equipment (0.8% vs. -7.6%). Output growth also picked up for textiles (4.5% vs. 1.3%) and other non-metallic mineral products (4.0% vs. 1.8%). On a monthly basis, industrial production dropped 1%, following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in June.