Gold rose to $4,120 an ounce on Monday, its highest level since October 21, as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns, while investors awaited US CPI and PPI data this week for clues on the Fed’s policy outlook. The gain follows a 5% rally last week after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the US midterm elections, raising hopes for an end to the US-Israeli war with Iran. Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of further strikes against Iran. Gold’s gains came despite a stronger-than-expected US employment report released on Friday, which reinforced expectations of higher interest rates for longer, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields. Markets currently price in an 81% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, according to CME FedWatch. Meanwhile, China’s central bank purchased 25.8 metric tons of gold in October, its largest monthly addition in three years, according to World Gold Council data.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged lower to 4.84% on Monday, as investors positioned themselves ahead of a series of key economic releases this week that could influence expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves. This week’s CPI and PPI releases, are expected to point to an acceleration in both annual headline consumer and producer inflation. Against this backdrop, market-implied odds of another 25bps Fed rate hike next month currently stand at around 80%. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to decline, helping ease concerns over further inflationary pressures. President Trump said it was “highly unlikely” that he would order further strikes against Tehran if negotiations showed progress despite attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz.

Mexico’s annual inflation rate rose for the third month to 3.75% in October 2026, the highest level since May, up from September's 3.45%. The reading overshot market expectations of 3.65% and moved further above Banxico’s 3% target. Price increases were broad-based, with food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.55% vs 2.55% in September), of which fruit and vegetables (13.19% vs 8.78%) and housing & utilities (3.60% vs 3.33%) among the key contributors. Additional upward pressure also came from alcoholic beverages & tobacco (7% vs 7.31%); insurance & financial services (7.55% vs 5.88%) and restaurants & hotels (6.20% vs 6.19%). The core inflation edged up to 3.80% from 3.75% in September, broadly in line with forecasts of 3.78%. Monthly, the CPI rose by 0.65%, up from 0.42% in September and above market expectations of 0.55%. Fruit and vegetable prices grew by 2.35%, while energy prices and government-regulated tariffs rose by 2.13%, partly due to the end of summer electricity subsidies.

Crude oil fell below $88 a barrel on Monday, the lowest since August 31, extending the previous week’s 12.8% decline as markets weighed diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East conflict against continued regional attacks. US President Donald Trump said extensive strikes on Iran were unlikely if Tehran agreed to a strong deal, ahead of a meeting with Qatar’s prime minister. However, prospects for a breakthrough remain uncertain. US forces reportedly struck Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio played down expectations for progress in negotiations. Tensions also persisted around the Strait of Hormuz, where a tanker was reportedly hit by an unidentified projectile. Separately, Iran-backed Houthi rebels damaged Saudi Aramco offices in Riyadh, prompting Saudi forces to destroy two missile launchers. Despite the security risks and repeated attacks on shipping, crude exports from the Persian Gulf have begun to recover.

Germany’s exports rose 2% month-on-month to a record €141.1 billion in September 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.4% fall in the previous month and beating market expectations of a 0.5% gain. This was the fastest increase since February, driven mainly by a 3.5% rise in shipments to EU member states, which reached €80.8 billion. Exports to the euro area went up 2.4% to €55.8 billion, while shipments to the non-euro area increased 6.1% to €25 billion. Meanwhile, shipments to third countries edged up 0.1% to €60.3 billion, although exports to the US (-0.5%), China (-5.2%), and the UK (-4.7%) declined. On a yearly basis, German exports increased 7.7% in September. Over the January-September period, exports totaled €1,234.3 billion, up 4.3% from the same period a year earlier.

China’s producer prices rose 5.7% year-on-year in October 2026, accelerating from 5.0% in the previous month and exceeding market expectations of 5.3%. It marked the fastest increase since June 2022, reflecting stronger commodity prices and improving industrial demand in the post-Golden Week period. Prices of production materials quickened further (7.4% vs 6.5% in September), driven by faster increases in mining (27.9% vs 25.4%), raw materials (11.6% vs 9.4%), and processing (3.5% vs 3.4%). Meanwhile, consumer goods prices remained subdued (-0.1% vs -0.1%), as declines in food (-1.6% vs -1.8%), clothing (-1.3% vs -1.2%), and daily-use goods (-0.7% vs -0.6%) offset slower growth in durable goods prices (1.4% vs 1.6%). On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.7%, easing from September’s 1.2% increase, the strongest in five months. In the first ten months of 2026, producer prices climbed 2.7%, accelerating from 2.3% in the preceding period.