WTI crude oil futures fell about 2% to $87.2 per barrel on Friday, the lowest in roughly six weeks, putting them on track for a 17% decline in May. The move followed reports that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend a ceasefire and ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although President Donald Trump has not yet approved the deal and Iranian state media said it has not been finalized. The potential agreement has raised expectations of an eventual end to the US-Israeli war in Iran and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Analysts warn that any recovery in flows would likely be slow, as mines would need clearing, damaged infrastructure repaired and shut-in production restarted, with tanker delays also limiting supply restoration.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.45% on Friday, remaining near three-week lows, though still up roughly 7 bps for the month, as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Signs have emerged that the US and Iran may be closer than ever to reaching an agreement, with recent reports indicating that both countries have reached a preliminary understanding to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and begin discussions over the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, although President Trump has yet to formally endorse the terms. Oil prices have declined, helping to ease inflationary pressures. Data released on Thursday showed that both headline and core PCE monthly inflation came in below expectations although annual readings remained well above the Fed’s target at 3.8% and 3.3%. Investors currently expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged through year-end, though markets still assign roughly a 46% probability to a rate hike in December.

The Canadian GDP stalled in the first quarter of 2026, holding the 0.2% contraction from the last quarter of 2025, and contrasting with market expectations that it would expand by 0.3%. Consumption expenditure inched higher by 0.2%, slowing from the 0.7% jump in the previous period, with household consumption rising by 0.4% to offset a 0.2% drop in government expenditure. In turn, gross fixed capital formation contracted by 1.1%, the first drop in one year. In turn, the GDP was pressured significantly by a 2.9% increase in imports, particularly for gold and scrap metal. Meanwhile, exports fell by 0.1% despite the surging oil and gas prices during March due to the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Much of the gold imported, in addition to manufactured goods were added to inventory, preventing a second contraction in the Canadian GDP. In annualized terms, Canada's GDP inched lower by 0.1%.

The US goods deficit narrowed to $82.4 billion in April 2026 from $85.3 billion in March, according to preliminary data. Exports surged 4% to a record $219.7 billion, driven by strong sales of capital goods (up 7.5%), industrial supplies (up 2.1%), and consumer goods (up 7.8%), though exports of vehicles and foods fell by 2.8% and 0.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, imports rose at a slower pace of 1.9% to $302.1 billion. Increases in capital goods (up 5.6%) and foods (up 0.3%) were partially offset by declines in industrial supplies (down 1.9%), vehicles (down 1.5%), and consumer goods (down 1.0%). For the January–April period, the goods deficit shrank sharply to $330 billion from $549 billion in the same period of 2025.

The Brazilian GDP expanded by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2026, gaining traction following the upwardly revised 0.3% increase in the previous quarter and slightly ahead of the market consensus of a 1% rise. It was the sharpest growth rate in one year, remaining supported by the elevated level of government spending that has boosted household consumption in recent quarters and drove the Brazilian central bank to maintain interest rates at an elevated level. Household consumption jumped by 1% in the period, and public expenditure inched higher by 0.4%. Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation surged by 3.5%. On the other hand, net foreign demand had a negative contribution to GDP growth, with exports rising by 1.7% while imports surged by 4.4%.

Germany’s consumer price inflation slowed to 2.6% year-over-year in May 2026, down from an over two-year high of 2.9% in April and slightly below market expectations, according to preliminary data. Despite the decline, inflation remains above the ECB’s 2% target. Goods inflation fell to 2.2% from 2.9%, driven by easing energy (6.6% vs. 10.1%) and food (0.4% vs. 1.2%) price pressures. However, services inflation accelerated to 3.1%, rebounding from a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.8% in April. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose to 2.5%, up from a five-year low. Meanwhile, the EU-harmonized annual inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.9%.