Crude oil traded near $86 per barrel on Wednesday, hovering close to eleven-week lows on signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump suggested that additional military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary, fueling optimism for a possible diplomatic settlement. Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats are considering leveraging the upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration toward ending the conflict. However, uncertainty persists as Iran demands relief from US sanctions and the naval blockade before agreeing to peace talks. At the same time, Middle Eastern oil shipments have nearly returned to prewar levels despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The US oil benchmark has fallen almost 20% from its late-October peak, reversing much of its recent gains as hopes for de-escalation strengthened and regional oil exports continued to recover.

US stock indices closed lower on Tuesday as higher-than-expected inflation weighed on stocks and bonds following hawkish signals from Fed officials. The S&P 500 lost 0.4%, the Dow shed 158 points, and the Nasdaq declined 0.6%. A surprisingly high CPI reinforced expectations of a quarter-point December hike, with money markets pricing some chance of an even larger move and further hikes next year. Meanwhile, Anthropic is expected to begin trading as early as next week, seeking to raise up to $90 billion at a diluted valuation of around $1.4 trillion. The offering comes amid strong demand for AI services, though growing concerns over excessive capital expenditure have raised questions about the sustainability of the sector’s investment boom. Chipmakers were mostly lower, with Nvidia falling 5.5%, extending the previous session’s losses, while Micron shed 1.1%. Hyperscalers also declined, with Microsoft losing 2.2% and Oracle retreating 1.5%.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose past the 5% threshold, extending the rebound from a near-two-month low of 4.84% on November 5th after hot inflation data consolidated bets that the Fed will deliver multiple additional rate hikes in the current cycle. Both headline and core consumer prices rose more than expected in October, adding to evidence that soaring energy prices are being transmitted into core sectors of a resilient economy. The data followed hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller, who said he would support a 50bps increase in December if inflation continued to accelerate. Also, Dallas Fed President Logan supported at least two additional 25bps increases. Treasury yields of all maturities had already rebounded this week as markets regained risk sentiment following a brief flight to safety after the Democratic Party gained control of Congress, driving markets to reconsider advances in the tech sector that has carried investment in the US economy.

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down to 97.8 in October 2026 from 97.9 in September, a new low since June and compared to forecasts of 97.7. “There was little change in optimism among small businesses in October as owners navigated enduring challenges, though there were some encouraging developments,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. The percent of small business owners reporting the quality or availability of labor as their top operating problem decreased 1 point to 25%, making it the top reported issue for the fourth consecutive month. The second top issue was taxes, which rose notably from September. 21% of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, the highest level since May 2021. On the other hand, expectations for better business conditions improved, after two months of deterioration. A net 8% of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, up 2 points from September.

China’s trade surplus widened to $105.28 billion in October 2026, up from $88.00 billion a year earlier, but below forecasts of $125.8 billion. Exports rose less than imports amid efforts to address trade imbalances, with China's trade surplus with the US falling to $32.71 billion from $34 billion in September. Exports surged 35.2% yoy to $412.33 billion, above estimates of 33.5%, as the global AI infrastructure boom continued to sustain strong demand for Chinese high-tech products, although growth eased from 36.3% in September. Amid pressure from the US and the EU on China to address its surging trade surplus, exports to the US (32.9% vs 39.56% in September) and the EU (24.4% vs 25.3%) both eased. Imports soared 41.6% yoy to $307.05 billion, beating forecasts of 32%. In the first ten months of 2026, the trade surplus reached $1.043 trillion, topping $1 trillion for the second consecutive year and putting the annual figure on track to surpass last year's record of $1.2 trillion.

South Africa’s unemployment rate edged up to 33.7% in Q3 2026 from 33.6% in Q2, marking the highest since Q2 2022. The number of unemployed people rose by 1.1% to 8.578 million, while employment increased by 0.6% to 16.840 million. The labor force grew by 0.8% to 25.418 million, with the participation rate up 0.3% to 59.9%. The number of persons employed in the formal sector increased by 2.2% to 12.340 million but those employed in the informal sector dropped by 2.7% to 3.476 million. Seven of the 10 industries reported employment gains, led by finance (+111,000), manufacturing (+33,000) and mining (+31,000). By contrast, job losses were seen in private households (-68,000), agriculture (-34,000) and construction (-8,000). The expanded definition of unemployment, which includes those discouraged from seeking work, rose to 44% from 43.8% previously. The youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, hit 63.6%, the highest since Q1 2022, up from 62.8% in Q2.