Brent crude rose above $116 a barrel on Friday, reaching an over 4-year high as expectations grew that the US could resume strikes against Iran in the coming weeks. US President Trump said Wednesday that Washington was not negotiating with Tehran and that something would happen “fairly soon.” Reports indicate that the US and Israel are planning fresh strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. Meanwhile, Iran’s army chief said the country’s military was fully prepared for “asymmetric warfare” after strengthening its capabilities. Iran-allied Houthi militants have continued attacks on Saudi Arabia, prompting the US State Department to order non-essential personnel to leave the country. Oil giant Saudi Aramco also instructed staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely following a series of attacks. On the week, brent crude prices rose more than 6%.

US stock indices closed lower on Friday as surging oil prices weighed on equities and bonds. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq closed flat and the Dow shed 653 points. Escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil higher, stoking inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Treasury yields rose after the market’s strongest session in over a year. Financial stocks dipped, with JPMorgan down 1.5%, Morgan Stanley falling 2.4% and BlackRock losing 1.7%. American Express dropped 3.7% despite beating earnings expectations and announcing plans to cut 5% of its global workforce. Among AI hyperscalers, Alphabet lost 1.2%, Meta shed 1% and Amazon retreated 0.9%. Concerns over rising debt to finance AI infrastructure pressured tech stocks this week. Most chipmakers recovered on Friday but still posted sharp weekly losses. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1%, the Nasdaq lost 2.1% and the Dow added 296 points.

Next week, investors will closely monitor developments in the Middle East for any further disruptions to oil supplies. The earnings calendar will also be busy, with major technology companies, including hyperscalers Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon, set to report results. Monetary policy will be another key focus, with interest rate decisions due from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Thailand and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. On the economic front, preliminary GDP figures for the US and the Eurozone will be released, alongside US PCE inflation data and preliminary inflation figures for major European economies, including Germany. Investors will also assess Tokyo inflation and Australia's CPI data. Political developments will remain in the spotlight, including the UK's Autumn Budget, China's Communist Party's fifth plenum, and elections in Brazil and Israel.

Gold prices fell below $4,000 an ounce on Friday, hitting their lowest level since mid-July and putting the precious metal down almost 4% for the week, as rising oil prices strengthened expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer. Brent crude surged to a four-year high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over further energy supply disruptions. Meanwhile, recent US data showed consumer and producer inflation rising more than expected, largely driven by higher energy costs, reinforcing concerns over persistent inflationary pressures. Despite this, Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their October 27–28 meeting. Markets currently price in just a 10% chance of a rate hike next week, compared with odds of around 80% for December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors now await US PCE inflation data due October 29 for further clues on progress towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Retail sales in Canada likely increased 0.7% month-over-month in September 2026, extending a 1.2% rise in August, according to preliminary estimates. Meanwhile, data for August was revised down from a preliminary estimate of a 1.3% increase. In August, the largest gain in retail sales was observed at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+1.2%), led by new car dealers (1.5%). In August, gains at automotive parts, accessories and tire retailers (+1.4%) were offset by lower sales at other motor vehicle dealers (-1.4%) and used car dealers (-0.5%). Also, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors increased 1.7%, up for the first time in three months. In volume terms however, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors decreased 0.5%. Sales also increased at food and beverage retailers (+1.1%), general merchandise retailers (+1%) and health and personal care retailers (1.6%).

The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 51.9 in October 2026, down from September’s three-and-a-half-year high of 53.1 and below market expectations of 52.7, according to the preliminary estimate. Although business activity expanded for a fourth consecutive month, growth slowed to its weakest pace in the sequence, partly driven by a renewed contraction in French services activity. While strikes and unrest may have disrupted local economic activity in France, growth also eased across the rest of the eurozone, affecting both manufacturing and services. Meanwhile, new order growth weakened, bringing hiring close to stagnation, while rising energy prices drove input costs higher and prompted firms to increase selling prices. Higher interest rates also dampened demand, reinforcing concerns over slowing growth and persistent inflation that could fuel expectations of further ECB tightening. Finally, business confidence fell to a five-month low.