Crude prices wavered near $91.50 a barrel on Friday after US President Trump said Russian President Putin had agreed to release diesel supplies into the global market. The US Treasury Department said the Office of Foreign Assets Control was “immediately issuing a temporary general license” to allow Russian diesel supplies to reach global markets. The proposed volume would amount to about 22.5 million barrels. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict has strained shipping, with a large tanker fleet tied up in ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz, pushing global freight rates to record highs and reducing vessel availability on other routes. Eleven tankers came under attack while transiting Hormuz during the week that ended October 4th. Trump said earlier this week that he would not strike Iran again before the November midterm elections, citing what he described as productive discussions with Tehran. On the week, oil added around 0.2%.

US stock indices closed higher on Friday amid expectations of a strong earnings season. The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%, both nearing their record highs, while the Dow added 423 points. Robust results across sectors have helped drive equity returns this year. Wall Street’s largest banks are expected to report nearly $19 billion in stock-trading revenue when they release quarterly earnings next week. Goldman Sachs (+1.4%), which reports Tuesday, is forecast to post $5.1 billion, followed by Morgan Stanley (+1.4%) at $4.9 billion, according to estimates. JPMorgan (+0.5%) is expected to report $4.5 billion, while Bank of America (+1.4%) is forecast to generate $2.6 billion. AI Hyperscalers gained on expectations that OpenAI will exceed $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end. Alphabet rose 1%, Microsoft added 2.4% and Amazon gained 3.3%. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, the Nasdaq shed 0.1% and the Dow gained 585 points.

Signs of progress in negotiations or risks of escalatory strikes involving Iran, the US, and Gulf nations will continue to be closely monitored as high energy inflation keeps global bond yields near multi-decade highs. Equity markets will also be shaped by corporate earnings, headlined by TSMC, ASML, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, LVMH, and UnitedHealth. On the economic calendar, US CPI and PPI prints will take the spotlight, alongside domestic retail sales, industrial production, and the terms of trade. In the eurozone, investors will look to upcoming industrial production and trade data. Meanwhile, China's trade balance will draw attention amid persistent protectionist measures from key partners, and monetary aggregates will show the scale of credit for traditional and emerging economic sectors. Japan is set to release its PPI and machinery orders, while India and Australia are due to post labor market updates.

Employment in Canada declined by 68,300 in September 2026, the steepest decline in seven months and missing expectations for a 7,000 increase, up from a 41,700 decline in August. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, with both full-time and part-time employment falling by 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively. Public sector employment dropped by 70,000, extending its decline to a fourth consecutive month, while private sector employment was little changed for the second month in a row. Self-employment also edged down by 23,000. Youth employment fell by 48,000, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. By industry, employment decreased in educational services (-2.2%), health care and social assistance (-0.8%), and manufacturing (-0.7%). By province, the largest declines were recorded in Quebec (-1.1%), British Columbia (-0.7%), and Manitoba (-0.6%). The employment rate edged down to 60.6% from 60.8%. On an annual basis, employment was up by 95,000 or 0.5%.

Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.58% in September 2026 from 4.22% in August, slightly above forecasts of 4.50%. Price growth accelerated for food and beverages (4.66% vs. 3.53%), household articles (2.08% vs. 1.40%), clothing (3.34% vs. 3.25%), transport (3.94% vs. 3.04%) and communication (2.79% vs. 1.96%). Transport costs were partly driven by vehicle fuel inflation, which rose to 4.97% from 4.41% as international oil prices surged amid Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, price growth moderated for housing (4.22% vs. 4.90%), health and personal care (5.75% vs. 5.84%), personal expenses (5.90% vs. 6.16%) and education (5.95% vs. 5.98%). Month over month, consumer prices rose 0.82%, rebounding from a 0.32% decline in August. Inflation reached 3.95% year to date.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 5.26% on Friday, following a volatile session on Thursday, when the benchmark yield fell 6 bps from its highest level since 2002. Investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy prices and inflation. Oil prices eased after US President Trump pledged to refrain from attacking Iran until after the midterm elections. Nevertheless, markets continued to price in the possibility that the Fed would need to keep interest rates elevated for longer to contain persistent inflationary pressures. The probability of the Fed holding rates steady this month stood at around 81%, while the odds of a 25bps rate hike in December were approximately 69%. For the week, the 10-year Treasury yield was down about 5bps. Meanwhile, strong demand at this week’s 10-year and 30-year Treasury note auctions suggested that investors remained willing to purchase longer-dated government debt despite the recent sell-off.