Crude oil rose to as high as $87.75 a barrel on Thursday before paring gains toward $86 a barrel, the lowest since August 31, as signs of recovering Saudi Arabian supply outweighed escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. Saudi Arabia reported a 26% increase in oil production in October, bringing output to one of its highest monthly levels in years, while Iraq also raised production to a wartime record. Exports remained resilient despite disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, supported by alternative routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and ship-to-ship transfers. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the US no longer needs a deal with Iran, signalling a shift away from recent diplomatic efforts. Tehran also maintained a hardline position, with senior official Mohsen Rezaee ruling out the removal of any enriched nuclear material from the country.

The number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US rose by 9,000 to 200,000 in the week ending November 7th, slightly ahead of the median consensus of 195,000. Despite the increase, the levels remained well below historical averages. Continuing claims, a gauge for total outstanding unemployment in the country, fell by 13,000 to 1,679,000 in the last week of October, testing the lowest level since March 2023. The data continued to point to a robust labor market since the second half of the year, as noted by members of the FOMC, despite elevated interest rates and high energy prices. Meanwhile, initial claims filed by federal employees, which remain in the spotlight due to the administration's push to shrink the public sector, rose by 33 to 585.

The headline inflation rate in India rose to 6.09% in October 2026 from 5.54% in the previous month, firmly above market expectations of 5.93%. With that, the rate crossed the Reserve Bank of India's upper target threshold of 6% for the first time since October 2024. Food prices, which make up a large portion of the Indian consumer basket, rose by 8.94% annually, picking up from the 7.74% increase in the previous month. Inflation was also elevated for restaurants and accommodation (10.06%) and personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods (10.14%). Meanwhile, transportation inflation was at 5.84%, extending its reversal from lower levels earlier in the year as the surge in oil prices—a commodity that India imports in large quantities—lifted fuel costs for consumers. From the previous month, Indian consumer prices rose by 0.51%.

The UK economy expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2026, marking its fastest growth since Q1 2024. Growth accelerated from 0.5% in Q2 and was in line with market expectations, preliminary estimates showed. Services output rose 0.9% (vs. 0.6% in Q2), led by administrative and support service activities, which increased 4.1%, and information and communication, which grew 2.1%. Production output edged up 0.1% (vs. -0.1%), as a 0.9% increase in manufacturing offset declines in mining and quarrying (-2.2%), electricity and gas (-2.1%), and water supply (-1.5%). Meanwhile, construction output fell 0.7%, as a 1.6% drop in new work outweighed a 0.5% increase in repair and maintenance. On the expenditure side, gross fixed capital formation rose 1.7%, while household and government consumption both increased 0.6%. Exports grew 1.6%, while imports rose 1.8%. On an annual basis, GDP expanded by 1.9%, its strongest growth in nearly two years, accelerating from 1.4% in Q2.

The US dollar index hovered just below 103 on Thursday after gaining more than 1% over the previous two sessions, reaching its highest level since April 2025 amid growing expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The rally was supported by October inflation data that came in above market forecasts, alongside increasingly hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers. Fed Governor Christopher Waller cautioned that a 50-basis-point rate increase in December may be necessary, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported at least two additional 25-basis-point hikes as inflationary pressures continue to build. Markets are now assigning roughly a 91% probability to a rate increase next month, with investors also factoring in the possibility of further tightening in January and potentially April. Attention now shifts to Thursday’s initial jobless claims and existing home sales figures for additional insight into inflation trends, labor market conditions and the broader economic outlook.

The RICS UK Residential Market Survey showed that the house price balance fell to -36% in October 2026 from an upwardly revised -34% in September, below forecasts of -32% and the weakest since November 2023. This marked a second consecutive monthly deterioration after signs of stabilization over the summer. The new buyer enquiries balance remained at -24%, while the agreed sales balance dropped to -24% from -18%, its weakest reading in three months. The three-month sales expectations balance fell to -11%, while the 12-month measure declined to -17%, its most pessimistic since July 2023. Similarly, the 12-month house price expectations balance slipped to -17% from zero, pointing to a modest price decline in prices. RICS cited rising mortgage rates and geopolitical and energy market developments as factors weighing on the sales outlook. In the rental market, tenant demand improved to +7% from -1%, while rent growth expectations climbed to +41% from +29%, the highest since early 2024.