The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.7 in August 2026 from 99.8 in July and below forecasts of 99.3. Actual sales worsened, with a net negative 9% of owners reporting higher nominal sales in the past three months, the lowest since November 2025. Reports of inflation as the single most important problem increased to 16%, now tying with taxes as the second top small business issue. Reports of “labor quality or availability” and “labor costs” as owners’ single most important problem eased, with “labor costs” dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. In addition, expectations for better business conditions deteriorated. “Uncertainty remains elevated among small business owners as they face a mixed set of challenges with weakened sales, supply chain disruptions, and inflation pressures. While expectations for the overall economy dimmed, Main Street owners remain largely positive in the health of their own businesses”, said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg

South Africa's economy shrank by 0.2% qoq in Q2 2026, reversing the revised 0.4% growth recorded in Q1 and worse than the expected 0.1% decline. This marked the first economic downturn since Q3 2024, snapping its longest quarterly growth run in almost a decade, amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Three of the ten industries contracted, led by trade, catering and accommodation (-1.9%), while energy-intensive manufacturing and mining fell 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Agriculture, however, provided some cushion, rising 0.3% on stronger activity in horticulture and field crops. Other sectors also grew, including utilities (1%) and government services (1%) and transport, storage and communication (0.9%). On the demand side, household and government consumption rose 0.4% each, while fixed investment fell 0.2%. Net exports shed 1.1 points as exports rose 0.9% and imports 4.9%. On a yearly basis, the GDP rose by 0.9% in Q2, down from 1.9% in Q1 and missing the expected 1% growth.

Crude rose to around $94 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest since June 3, after Saudi Arabia reported attacks that halted operations at several energy facilities in the south of the kingdom. The state-run Saudi Press Agency said the strikes wounded several people, while Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed responsibility for targeting the 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery and other facilities serving the domestic market. The attacks add to concerns over further disruption to global oil supplies amid ongoing Houthi strikes and the war involving Iran. Tensions are also rising around the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran said an agreement with Oman could soon provide a temporary safe-passage route, while warning that ships remain at risk of attack. Meanwhile, Chinese crude imports strengthened in August, with refiners increasing purchases from the Persian Gulf and other sources. Higher imports have enabled China to export more refined products, providing some relief to global oil markets.

European stocks fell on Tuesday, with both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 down 0.3% following a subdued session the previous day. Oil prices extended their gains as tensions in the Middle East remained elevated. Meanwhile, natural gas prices hovered near their highest levels in more than three years, adding to inflationary pressures and strengthening expectations that further monetary-policy tightening may be needed. The ECB is expected to raise borrowing costs by another 25 basis points this week. Shares of Novartis tumbled almost 9%, making it the worst performer on the STOXX 600, after its pelacarsen drug failed to reduce cardiovascular events despite lowering harmful cholesterol. The results raise questions about one of the pharmaceutical industry’s most closely watched drug races. Infineon also fell 2.6%, while ASML slipped 0.7% despite securing commitments from top chipmakers, including Samsung and TSMC, to use its latest semiconductor production equipment.

France’s trade deficit widened to €6.7 billion in July 2026 from €5.8 billion in June, exceeding the expected €6.0 billion shortfall. Imports rose 1.8% month-on-month to €61.3 billion, driven by higher purchases of transport equipment (+6.6%), natural hydrocarbons and other extractive products (+7.0%), and publishing and communication products (+13.5%). By origin, imports increased from the Middle East (+64.0%), the EU (+0.9%) and Asia (+1.2%), while declining from Africa (-6.0%) and the Americas (-1.3%). Meanwhile, exports rose at a softer 0.3% to €54.7 billion, led by natural hydrocarbons and other extractive products (+14.5%), other industrial products (+1.4%), and agricultural, forestry and aquaculture products (+0.1%), while transport equipment (-0.9%) and mechanical, electronic and computer equipment (-0.4%) declined. By destination, exports increased to the EU (+3.4%) and the Middle East (+7.0%), while shipments to Africa (-4.1%), the Americas (-0.7%) and Asia (-1.6%) fell.

China’s trade surplus widened to $119.09 billion in August 2026, up from $101.01 billion a year earlier. Exports jumped 25% year-on-year to $401.44 billion, following a nearly 24% increase in July, as the global AI infrastructure buildout continued to boost trade across Asia. Shipments to the US surged 34.4%, lifting China’s surplus with the US to more than $29 billion, the widest gap since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025. Washington is stepping up its rhetoric toward Beijing, urging China to boost domestic demand and reduce its reliance on exports for growth, ahead of a planned meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump later this month. Meanwhile, imports rose 28.2% to $282.36 billion, slightly below forecasts but accelerating from July’s 27.5% increase. In the first eight months of 2026, China’s trade surplus reached $806 billion, putting the annual figure on track to surpass last year’s record of $1.2 trillion.