Crude oil traded near $102 a barrel on Monday after reaching a four-month high of $105 earlier in the session. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Ukraine is willing to halt attacks on Russian energy targets if Russia agrees to do the same. He added that “Ukraine is not convinced that Russia is willing to abide by any agreement.” Zelenskyy’s conditional statement undercut a claim by US President Trump that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to suspend strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia closed its critical pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, further constraining global supplies. Drones launched from Iraq damaged the East-West pipeline on Thursday, forcing the Saudi government to shut it down. A diplomatic meeting between Iran and the Gulf Arab states to discuss the situation in Hormuz was abruptly postponed following the pipeline attack. The number of commodity vessels observed transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to single digits over the weekend.

The headline inflation rate in Canada was unchanged from the previous month at 3.0% in August of 2026, aligned with market expectations and remaining below the post-Iran-war peak of 3.2%. Price growth remained dominated by energy goods as the war in the Middle East halted a key source of global oil supply. Gasoline inflation stood at 22.8% in the month, slowing slightly from the 25.7% increase in the previous month. Conversely, groceries prices rose 2.8% from the 3.1% increase in July, falling below the headline inflation rate for the first time in over two years. Core inflation rates that are tracked by the Bank of Canada remained close to their target. The trimmed-mean core rate and the median core rate were both unchanged at 1.9% and 2%, respectively, aligned with expectations. From the previous month, the Canadian CPI inched down by 0.1%.

The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury note eased to 4.96% on Monday after having tested a 19-year high of 5.01% earlier in the session, tracking the slight pullback for key energy prices as markets gauged the magnitude of inflation risks. Wholesale fuel prices eased after President Trump signaled that Russia and Ukraine would halt strikes on energy infrastructure. Still, energy inflation continued to pressure Treasuries across the curve as recent data suggested that tariffs and high fuel costs had impacted underlying inflation gauges. Money markets show that the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its rates by 25bps on Wednesday. In turn, long-maturity Treasury yields have also been supported soaring levels of corporate debt by AI companies, limiting allocation of capital by primary dealers and other financial institutions. Lastly, hawkish expectations for the ECB and BoJ also pressured bonds.

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 44.9 in September 2026, remaining below the 50-point threshold and marking 21 consecutive months of pessimism. The Current Conditions Index dropped 2.5 points to 40.2, driven mainly by a more negative assessment of the economic environment. The index for Brazil’s economy fell 3.6 points to 33.0, while the measure of companies’ own conditions declined 1.9 point to 43.8. The Expectations Index also deteriorated, falling 0.9 point to 47.2, as expectations for the Brazilian economy dropped 0.6 point to 39.1. Expectations for companies’ own conditions fell 1.0 point to 51.3.

US natural gas prices rose to $2.89 per million British thermal units on Monday, supported by lower domestic production and stronger LNG exports. Average gas output across the Lower 48 states fell to a two-week low of 111.7 bcfd on Friday, while flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities climbed to a 20-week high of 18.8 bcfd. Although record production and mild spring weather have kept inventories above the five-year average since March, hotter temperatures are now beginning to narrow the surplus. Analysts estimate that storage was around 3.6% above normal in the week ending September 11, down from 4.8% a week earlier. Looking ahead, forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain mostly above normal through September 26, although conditions are expected to be less extreme than previously projected. The warmer weather should keep power generators relying more heavily on natural gas to meet increased air-conditioning demand, providing further support for prices.

The headline inflation rate in India rose to 4.82% in August of 2026, the highest since December of 2024, from 4.45% in the previous month and aligned with market expectations of 4.8%. The increase reflected fresh inflationary pressures from the surge in energy prices since the outbreak of war in the Middle East, magnified by the consequent pressure on the rupee. Still, the rate remained comfortably within the RBI's tolerance range of 2 percentage points away from 4%. Inflation was elevated for food and beverages (5.95%) and transportation (4.6%), both impacted by the war, while the latter was also influenced by adverse weather conditions for key crops during an aggressive El Nino. Meanwhile, prices soared for restaurants and accommodation services (8.38%) and personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services (15.17%).