The US stock indices closed lower on Friday as chipmakers shares trimmed the previous session’s gains and a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Warsh strengthened expectations for a rate hike next month. The S&P 500 shed 0.2%, the Nasdaq fell 0.7% and the Dow inched lower. Marvell fell 10.3% despite beating earnings estimates and raising its outlook. Chipmakers pulled back after rallying on Nvidia’s (-4.6%) strong results earlier in the week, with Broadcom down 0.7%, and AMD falling 2.3%. Hyperscalers held gains, with Alphabet up 1.5%, Microsoft adding 1.7%, Amazon jumping 4%, and Meta rising 1.2%. Meanwhile, Warsh said underlying inflation was not slowing and pledged to keep fighting price growth until it converges with the Fed’s 2% target during his speech at Jackson Hole Symposium, prompting traders to increase bets on a rate hike next month. Industrial and pharmaceutical stocks declined, with AbbVie losing 1% and Lam Research falling 5.2%.

Crude oil fell to $83.4 a barrel on Friday, extending weekly losses to about 4%, as traders increasingly viewed the Iran situation as an economic/sanctions confrontation rather than an imminent threat to physical supply, while improving flows through Hormuz and the proposed Iran–Oman corridor further reduced the perceived supply risk. Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports have climbed to around 15–16 million barrels per day, still significantly below pre-conflict volumes of 22–24 million barrels but well above the March low of about 5–6 million barrels. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman agreed on a revenue-sharing framework for the strait, although Tehran emphasized that this does not imply an immediate reopening. Still, the Trump administration reportedly told mediators it does not intend to revive the terms of a preliminary June agreement with Iran that subsequently collapsed.

Global markets are underpinned by long-term interest rates, which remained elevated at the turn of September amid high energy prices, ample AI-related corporate debt issuance, and wide budget deficits against signs of resilient economic growth. Economic data from the US will be centered on the labor market as FOMC members note the US is at full employment, headlined by the BLS Employment Situation report. ISM PMIs are also featured. In Europe, Eurozone inflation and unemployment rates are awaited. PMIs will also be the focus in China for its first batch of August data. A busy week in Japan will include retail sales, the unemployment rate, industrial production, and consumer confidence. GDP data is due from Brazil, India, and Australia, while central banks in Canada and New Zealand will decide on policy.

The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.73% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned that inflation has not meaningfully slowed, signaling that policymakers may have “work to do” to bring price pressures back to the Fed’s 2% target. In his first major speech since taking the chair in May, Warsh reiterated that 2% inflation is a firm and fixed objective and said financial conditions are not currently restrictive. He also emphasized that interest rates remain the Fed’s “predominant tool” for achieving its mandate. He added that recent PCE and CPI data, while better than expected, do not indicate a meaningful improvement in underlying inflation trends. His closely watched remarks offered more clarity on his economic and policy views after criticism that his more limited communication strategy had left investors with little guidance on the near-term outlook. Money markets subsequently priced in a near 50% chance of a September rate hike, according to CME FedWatch.

The US economy added 79,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2026 than previously estimated, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision, representing a downward adjustment of 0.1%. The revision was concentrated in several major sectors, with retail trade recording the largest reduction of 154,600 jobs. Private education and health services followed with a 96,000 downward revision, while wholesale trade was revised down by 86,200 and professional and business services by 76,000. Manufacturing payrolls were reduced by 67,000, while leisure and hospitality and mining and logging saw smaller downward adjustments of 33,000 and 6,000, respectively. However, several sectors recorded upward revisions. Transportation and warehousing led with an increase of 135,100 jobs, followed by government with 99,000, information with 87,000, financial activities with 85,000 and construction with 62,000.

Canada’s economy expanded 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in the previous three-month period, driven by stronger exports, household spending and business capital investment. Exports rose 3.6%, the largest increase since Q1 2023, led by a 27.0% jump in passenger cars and light trucks as Canadian auto production rebounded. Higher exports of metals, energy products, and industrial machinery and equipment also supported growth. Household spending rose 0.8%, led by higher spending on investment services, passenger vehicles and rent. Business investment strengthened, with engineering structures up 2.3% and machinery and equipment spending reaching its highest level since Q2 2024. Investment in computers and peripherals surged 16.7%, mainly due to higher imports of processing units used in data centres. On an annualized basis, the economy grew 3.3%, the fastest pace since Q3 2024 and broadly in line with market expectations of 3.4%.