Crude oil fell toward $89 a barrel on Tuesday after the US ordered another release from its emergency reserves and as Saudi Arabia’s crude exports recover. The US will offer up to 40 million barrels from the SPR in an exchange, effectively a loan that companies repay with interest. The Energy Department said the program will ultimately return about 200 million barrels to the reserve over the next year, roughly 20% more than the amount released. Bids for the SPR release are due October 6th. Energy Secretary Wright has signaled that another drawdown is unlikely. The SPR is projected to fall to its lowest level since 1982 once the latest release is completed. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia boosted flows through its key pipeline, reportedly restoring about half of its capacity following drone attacks. A steady flow of crude also appears to be moving through the Hormuz on vessels transiting covertly. US and Iranian officials have reportedly held separate indirect talks with mediators on Monday.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note resumed its climb to 5.28% on Tuesday, holding at 2007 highs, while the 30-year rate surpassed 5.6% to touch a 2002 dot-com bust level. Global government bonds have come under pressure as Middle East-driven oil price gains fuel expectations that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will raise interest rates further. Swaps traders are pricing in nearly a full percentage point of Fed rate hikes over the coming year. In the US, strong economic activity, along with concerns over large fiscal deficits and rising government debt, is also weighing on the bond market. Still, the latest data offered some signs of weakness, with both job openings and CB consumer confidence surprising on the downside. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s PCE report and Friday’s jobs data for further clues on the economy and the Fed’s policy path.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 2.5% year-on-year in July 2026, the strongest increase since May 2025 and above expectations of 2.2%. Chicago led the major metros for a fifth straight month, with prices up 6.9% year-on-year, followed by New York (+5.8%) and Cleveland (+4.2%). Seattle recorded the largest decline for a second consecutive month (-1.6%), followed by Las Vegas (-1.3%) and Denver (-1.1%). The long-standing East-West divide persisted, with six of eight Eastern metros recording stronger annual gains than in June, compared with just two of eight Western markets. On a monthly basis, home prices were unchanged in July after a 0.4% increase in June. However, after adjusting for inflation, home prices declined for a 14th consecutive month, with 3.4% inflation outpacing nominal price growth.

The Canadian GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.2% from the previous month in August 2026, according to a flash estimate.Growth likely reflected gains in mining and quarrying and retail trade, partly offset by declines in oil and gas extraction. The figure follows a flat reading in July, in line with market expectations, following three consecutive months of growth. The goods-producing sector, which contributes roughly a quarter of the GDP, was essentially unchanged in July, as increases in construction (1.3%) and utilities (1.7%) were offset by declines in manufacturing (-0.9%) and mining, quarrying and oil and gas (-0.5%). Simultaneously, the services-producing industries aggregate remained flat, as growth in sectors such as professional, scientific and technical services (0.3%); real estate and rental and leasing (0.2%) and accommodation and food services (0.8%) was offset by declines in retail trade (-1%) and wholesale trade (-0.4%).

The Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 97.9 in September 2026 from 98.4 in August, below market expectations of 99.0. It marked the first decline in sentiment since April, as consumers became more concerned about rising oil prices and stalled negotiations to end the six-month US-Iran war. Consumer confidence deteriorated to -16.5 from -15.5, while inflation expectations rose to 35.2 from 33.0. Sentiment was broadly unchanged among retailers (-6.4 vs -6.3) and constructors (-5.0 vs -5.0), while manufacturers’ confidence improved to -3.8 from -5.0 despite higher selling-price expectations (20.3 vs 16.9). Service-sector sentiment also strengthened to 6.1 from 5.6. Among the major economies, sentiment fell sharply in France (-1.7) and moderately in Italy (-0.8), while it rose in Spain (+3.4), Germany (+0.6) and the Netherlands (+0.5).

Net mortgage approvals for UK house purchases, a key indicator of future borrowing, fell to 54,900 in August 2026, down from a revised 55,900 in July and below market expectations of 56,100. Approvals reached their lowest level since December 2023 and remained well below the previous six-month average of around 60,100, highlighting continued pressure from elevated borrowing costs. Meanwhile, approvals for remortgaging with a different lender declined to 34,000 from 34,600. The effective interest rate on newly drawn mortgages rose to 4.60% in August, from 4.45% in July, while the rate on the outstanding mortgage stock edged up to 4.00% from 3.97%.