The ISM Services PMI fell to 54.9 in September 2026 from 55.4 in August, compared with expectations of 55. The index nevertheless remained in expansion territory for a 27th consecutive month, indicating continued growth in the US services sector. Business activity eased more noticeably, with the Business Activity Index dropping to 56.5 from 61.7, while new orders also moderated to 59.8. Employment improved, moving back above the 50 threshold to 50.1 after two months of contraction. Supplier deliveries slowed, with the corresponding index rising to 53.2, while backlogs strengthened to 56.6, their highest level since July 2022. Price pressures remained a major concern, with the Prices Index climbing to 74, its highest since July 2022 and above 70 for the sixth time in seven months. Export orders weakened sharply, falling below 50 for the first time in eight months. Tariffs, fuel costs and supply-chain constraints remained key concerns for businesses.

The Ibovespa surged 7.7% to a record 206,912 on Monday, its biggest one-day gain in over six years, after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Lula in the first election round, defying most polls. The result triggered a sharp repricing of Brazilian assets. Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for President Lula. The senator is viewed by markets as more fiscally restrictive, amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. Bolsonaro outperformed the average of polls tracked by Goldman Sachs by more than four percentage points. Gains were broad-based, with financials leading the index. Itaú soared 10.4%, Bradesco jumped 13.6%, BB rose 11% and B3 surged 22.6%. Other outperformers included Sabesp (11.6%) and Petrobras (8.2%). JPMorgan upgraded Brazil to Buy. Banks expect the index to extend its record-setting streak in upcoming sessions. The Ibovespa also set a record for trading volume, with more than 5 million trades during the session.

US stock indices closed higher on Monday as a rally in heavyweight technology shares outweighed concerns over still-elevated oil prices and bond yields. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.9% to close at a record 31,076 and the Dow added 91 points. Markets have absorbed rising borrowing costs, high energy costs and inflation concerns, with stocks continuing to advance. Strong earnings, consumer spending and sustained artificial intelligence-related investment have supported equities. AI hyperscalers posted solid gains, with Alphabet up 0.9%, Meta adding 1.9%, and Microsoft rising 1.5%. Meanwhile, chipmakers closed mixed, with gains in Nvidia (+2.1%) and Broadcom (+2.1%) mostly offsetting losses from Micron (-1%), AMD (-0.3%) and Intel (-2.6%). Tesla rose 2.2%, while SpaceX jumped 7.6% following reports of potential cooperation between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Elon Musk’s Terafab initiative.

Crude oil fell below $90 a barrel on Monday, with markets balancing easing supply pressures against renewed geopolitical risks. Prices came under pressure after Saudi Aramco cut the November selling price of Arab Light to Asian buyers to $5 a barrel below the regional benchmark, a deeper discount than the $2 offered for October. The move suggests stronger competition for market share as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, while the G7’s latest emergency stockpile release is also weighing on prices. However, supply concerns remain significant. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline continues to operate normally after reports of a fresh attack had briefly raised fears of another disruption. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to leave production quotas unchanged next month.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.33% on Monday, near its highest level since March 2022 as investors assessed fresh economic data and prepared for the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes. The latest ISM report showed that services-sector activity continued to expand, with the PMI at 54.9 in September, slightly below August but broadly in line with expectations. At the same time, cost pressures intensified, highlighting renewed inflation risks despite the moderation in business activity. Bond markets have faced persistent selling pressure in recent weeks, although Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report pushed yields lower and reduced expectations of another near-term Fed rate increase. Attention is now turning to Wednesday’s meeting minutes for further clues on the central bank’s policy outlook. Markets currently see an approximately 82% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting.

The S&P Global Canada Services Business Activity Index rose to 48.3 in September 2026 from 46.8 in August, remaining below the critical 50.0 no-change mark. Canada’s service sector continued to face a challenging business climate, with activity and new business falling at slower rates amid uncertainty over tariffs and the war in Iran. Tariffs and elevated energy prices also drove a sharper increase in operating costs, but strong competitive pressures limited firms’ ability to pass these costs on to clients, with output price inflation falling to a seven-month low. Staffing levels declined in response to weaker activity and new business, exacerbated by difficulties finding suitably skilled workers. However, firms became more confident about the outlook, with sentiment reaching its highest level since April.