Gold slipped toward $4,150 an ounce on Thursday after surrendering gains from the previous session, as elevated oil prices and Treasury yields outweighed support from softer-than-expected US inflation data. The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in August, below the 0.4% forecast, while core PCE increased 0.2%, also falling short of expectations for a 0.3% gain. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%. Markets now see roughly a 38% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, down from 51% before the PCE release. Meanwhile, oil prices remain elevated as the US and Iran make little progress in negotiations despite signs of recovering Middle East flows. Treasury yields also climbed to multi-decade highs amid concerns over persistent energy-driven inflation, which could prompt tighter monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan’s sentiment index for large manufacturers rose to 24 in Q3 2026 from 22 in Q2, its highest reading since Q1 2018, but still fell short of market expectations of 25. The result marked the sixth consecutive quarterly improvement, amid strong global demand driven by AI investment, even as rising costs and energy pressures from Middle East tensions remained a drag. Confidence strengthened across firms producing textiles (13 vs 8 in Q2), chemicals (26 vs 20), petroleum & coal (36 vs 9), ceramics, stone (22 vs 11), non-ferrous metals (45 vs 36), processed metals (16 vs 11), production machinery (43 vs 36), electrical machinery (33 vs 29), and construction (56 vs 52). In contrast, sentiment eased in industries producing lumber & wood (-7 vs 7), pulp & paper (36 vs 40), food & beverages (3 vs 9), motor vehicles (11 vs 12), and transport & postal activities (21 vs 25). Meanwhile, large firms expect capital expenditure to rise 11.3%, after an 11.5% increase in Q2.

Crude oil steadied above $90 per barrel on Thursday after rising in the previous session, as investors weighed signs of a recovery in Middle East flows against an ongoing impasse in US-Iran negotiations. Crude shipments from the region were nearing pre-war levels after Saudi Arabia restored half the capacity of its East-West pipeline, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 13.2 million barrels per day. However, markets remain cautious about the durability of the recovery without a lasting agreement to end the Iran war, with both Tehran and Washington claiming full control over the strategic waterway. Meanwhile, Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tehran had received a US proposal regarding the reopening of the strait. Elsewhere, OPEC+ is expected to keep November output quotas unchanged at its meeting this weekend.

The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in September 2026, above the preliminary estimate of 49.3 but down from 52.0 in August. This marked the sharpest decline in 21 months, driven by a renewed fall in new orders, which decreased for the first time in three months amid intense competition, rising prices and weaker demand. New export orders also contracted after rising in August. As a result, output fell at the fastest pace since December 2024, while manufacturing employment declined for the first time in five months. Backlogs fell for the 17th straight month. Firms also reduced purchasing activity at the fastest pace in four months. Supplier delivery times lengthened further due to Middle East shipping disruptions and severe weather in North Asia. Input cost inflation eased slightly but remained elevated, due to higher raw material, oil and transport costs, while output price inflation slowed to its weakest in seven months. Business confidence fell to a four-month low.

New home consents in New Zealand rose 5.6% month-over-month in August 2026, following a downwardly revised 4.5% decline in July. A total of 3,440 new homes were consented in August, including 1,704 stand-alone houses, 1,455 townhouses, flats, and units, 128 apartments, and 153 retirement village units. In the year ended August 2026, the total number of new homes consented was 41,268, up 21% from the year ended August 2025. Stand-alone houses accounted for 19,096 consents, also up 21%, while multi-unit homes increased 21% to 22,172. Townhouses, flats, and units rose 25% to 18,085, apartments fell 4.0% to 2,381, and retirement village units increased 27% to 1,706. Meanwhile, New Zealand recorded 7.7 new home consents per 1,000 residents in the year ended August 2026.

The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.2% in Q2 2026, revised up by 0.7 percentage point from the 2nd estimate, following an upwardly revised 2.5% growth in Q1. The stronger estimate reflected upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending. The upward revision to investment reflected stronger private inventory and fixed investment, with nonresidential structures (particularly commercial and healthcare construction, led by data centers) providing the largest contribution. From an industry perspective, the growth was driven by increases in real value added across private services-producing industries (2.5%), private goods-producing industries (2.3%), and government (less than 0.1%). The largest contributions came from real estate and rental and leasing, information, durable goods manufacturing, and finance and insurance. These gains were partly offset by declines in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, and nondurable goods manufacturing.