Crude oil prices surged above $100 a barrel on Friday, rising more than 11% this week amid tightening supply and strong demand for fuel from the shipping industry. Producers are facing higher freight rates and risk premiums to transport cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping uncertainty over future regional supply elevated. Iranian strikes on tankers in the strait have sharply reduced oil flows. In the week to October 13th, average daily flows fell to 11.62 million barrels from a baseline of 17.15 million barrels. Security risks in the Persian Gulf have contributed significantly to the price rally. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries have further constrained fuel supply. Adding to the pressure, US crude inventories fell by 8.56 million barrels in the week ended October 9th.

US stock indices closed lower on Friday as the selloff in chipmakers extended into an eighth consecutive session, marking the sector’s longest losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Dow shed 175 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.5%. CoreWeave plunged 11.9%, extending its weekly losses to 23.7% and highlighting renewed credit concerns surrounding AI infrastructure companies. The sector has come under pressure following relatively modest revenue figures from Anthropic and growing concerns about higher interest rates for heavily indebted companies. Economic data released this week showed accelerating consumer inflation and surging producer prices, both at the headline and core levels. Nvidia lost 1.4%, Micron fell 5.6%, and AMD dropped 5.9%. Meanwhile, Tesla declined 2.1% and SpaceX fell 1.7% amid speculation about a potential merger between the companies. On the week, the S&P 500 shed 2%, the Nasdaq lost 5% and the Dow added 156 points.

Geopolitical developments in Ukraine and the Middle East will continue to dictate markets as global oil supply tightens and inflation metrics trend higher. The earnings season will also gather pace, with Meta and Tesla reporting the latest signals on the volatile AI trade, while results are also due from P&G, Netflix, GE Aerospace, SAP, and Texas Instruments. On the economic data front, S&P PMIs across the US, Eurozone, Japan, Australia, and India will offer initial insights for October. The US will also release key housing data. In Europe, other sentiment surveys will draw attention, including Germany's ZEW and the European Commission economic sentiment indicator, while a busy week in the UK revolves around inflation and the labor market. Elsewhere, China's monthly data dump will include Q3 GDP growth, and Japan will release its inflation and trade figures. Canada will also publish its CPI.

Industrial production in the US rose 0.7% month-over-month in September, the most in five months and more than market expectations of 0.4%. Manufacturing output, which accounts for about 78% of total industrial production, increased 0.3%, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, mining production advanced 0.2%, and utilities rose 3.5%, supported by increased output from both electric and natural gas utilities. Capacity utilisation also improved, reaching 76.9% in September. Despite the monthly increase, the rate remained 2.5 percentage points below its long-term average for 1972–2025. For the third quarter as a whole, industrial production grew at an annualised rate of 2.8%.

Prices of imports into the United States rose by 1.1% from the previous month, the most in four months, well above market expectations of a 0.8% increase to extend the 0.7% jump in the earlier month. Higher prices for purchases of oversees goods were broad-based, with non-fuel imports rising by 0.7% following the revised 0.6% increase in the prior month. The increase was net of tariffs recently imposed by the presidential administration, indicating that companies are not reducing prices to accommodate for higher duties. In turn, fuel imports soared by 4.8%, also the sharpest rise in four months, as the tighter blockade of tankers by Iran and the US leaving the Persian Gulf drove oil and product prices to surge globally. From the previous year, import prices rose 8.1%.

Brazil’s IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.3% in August 2026 from July, reversing a 0.2% decline in the previous month and in line with forecasts. The industrial sector rebounded 0.9% after a 0.4% contraction in July, while services activity increased 0.2% following a flat reading. The taxes index rose 0.1% after falling 0.2% in the prior month. On the other hand, the agriculture and livestock sector contracted 1.8%, following a 1.2% decline in July. Excluding agriculture and livestock, the IBC-Br rose 0.3%. On an annual basis, economic activity expanded 1.2%.