Crude oil rose to around $95 a barrel on Wednesday amid renewed attacks across the Middle East and the IEA’s latest assessment of the oil market. The agency’s October Oil Market Report warned that constraints in diesel markets could persist well into 2027, with fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia threatening to derail a recovery in global oil supply. Fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis continued to escalate, with Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy reporting an overnight attack on an administrative building belonging to oil giant Saudi Aramco. The incident followed a series of Houthi attacks on Riyadh over the past week. A Saudi-led coalition reportedly struck Houthi energy terminals and fuel reserves in Yemen. Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Iran remained elevated. US Central Command rejected claims by the commander of Iran’s IRGC Navy that the Strait of Hormuz was under Iranian control and that any approaching US Navy warships would be “sunk.”

US stock indices closed lower on Wednesday amid hotter-than-expected inflation data and continued volatility in the AI infrastructure sector. The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Nasdaq slipped 2%, and the Dow shed 49 points. Chipmakers extended this week’s losses after ASML said it could not keep pace with demand for semiconductor fabrication equipment, while Chinese competitors introduced improved products approaching the capabilities of US and South Korean firms. Meanwhile, headline and core inflation readings reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver another rate hike this year. Nvidia lost 3.2%, Broadcom fell 3.1%, Micron declined 4.1% and AMD tumbled 5.7%. Among financial stocks, Bank of America fell 4.8% after both equity and fixed-income trading revenues missed estimates. Morgan Stanley closed 2.7% lower despite beating forecasts for equity-trading revenue, while BlackRock added 0.7% after stronger asset-management inflows boosted fee revenue.

Brazil’s Industrial Business Confidence Index rose 1.3 points to 46.2 in October 2026 from September. Despite the improvement, the index remained below the 50-point threshold, marking 22 consecutive months of pessimism in the industrial sector. The increase was driven entirely by improved expectations, particularly regarding companies’ own business conditions. The Expectations Index climbed 2.1 points to 49.3, with the component measuring expectations for companies’ own business conditions rising 1.0 point to 52.3. Expectations for Brazil’s economy increased 4.3 points to 43.4. Meanwhile, the Current Conditions Index fell 0.2 point to 40.0, its lowest level since July 2020. The decline reflected a more negative assessment of companies’ own conditions, with that component dropping 0.5 point to 43.3. In contrast, the assessment of Brazil’s economic conditions rose 0.3 point to 33.3.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note surged up to 10bps to 5.3% on Wednesday, approaching again highs last seen in early 2002, after the latest US inflation report came in hotter than expected. While higher energy prices were the main driver, the data also pointed to relatively broad-based inflationary pressures. Annual inflation accelerated to 3.7%, above forecasts of 3.6%, while the annual core inflation rate edged up to 2.6%, exceeding expectations of 2.5%. Monthly core CPI inflation also came in above forecasts at 0.3%. The report strengthened expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike this month, with the probability of such a move rising to around 50%, up from approximately 22% before the release.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up 1 basis points to 7.5% in the week ended October 9, 2026, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. It marked an eighth straight weekly increase, bringing the cumulative rise to 141 basis points since US-Israeli strikes against Iran began in late February. Borrowing costs continue to track elevated US Treasury yields amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates higher for longer to bring inflation under control. This upward movement has weighed heavily on the housing sector. Total mortgage applications fell 2.7%, extending their decline to a sixth consecutive week. Refinancing applications dropped 0.4%, while purchase applications fell 4%.

Aluminum futures in the UK fell to $3,020 per tonne in October, the lowest level year-to-date, fully erasing the rally since the start of the war between Iran and the US amid a stronger dollar and ample supply outside the Middle East. Aluminum smelting infrastructure in the Middle East was restarted at a faster pace than previously signaled following damage to facilities and operational halts caused by disruptions to natural gas production chains in the region. Emirates Global Aluminium said that a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi had resumed operations. In addition, Rio Tinto secured an agreement to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania operational through the end of 2031, further boosting supply prospects. Also, China's exports have increased sharply in the period despite the 30% export duty faced by primary aluminum smelters, which drives secondary producers to focus on foreign markets. Alloy export volumes doubled y-o-y to 4.46 million tons through August.