The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US rose to 55.6 in July 2026 from 53.3 in June, beating market expectations of 54.0 and signaling the strongest expansion in factory activity since May 2022. The improvement was driven by a sharp acceleration in output that was the fastest since November 2021 (58.5 vs. 52.2) and solid growth in new orders (56.7 vs. 56.0). Employment also returned to expansion for the first time since January 2025, with the employment index rising to 52.8 from 49.7, its highest level since August 2022. Meanwhile, cost pressures eased, while the Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slowing performance for the eighth month in a row. Manufacturing continued to benefit from businesses front-loading orders to avoid potential supply disruptions and higher costs linked to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. At the same time, strong AI-related investment helped offset the impact of import tariffs, while low business inventories left room for further expansion.

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 2.4% year-on-year in June 2026, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in May and marking its strongest annual growth since September 2025. Goods-producing activity increased 3.9%, supported by a 9.8% rise in mining and quarrying, particularly copper production, although gains were partly offset by a 0.7% contraction in manufacturing. Trade expanded 5.4%, with all segments posting positive results, led by wholesale trade amid stronger sales of machinery and equipment. Services activity also increased by 1.0%, driven by gains in personal and business services. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity expanded 0.6%, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in the previous month.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.68% on Monday, supported by lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns as hopes grew that tensions in the Middle East could ease. US President Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday afternoon and canceled a planned attack on the country. Investors are also awaiting a fresh batch of US economic data this week, including the closely watched employment report, for further clues on the strength of the labor market. Last week, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, although three policymakers dissented. Markets are now pricing in a roughly 63% probability of a 25bps rate hike in September, down from around 80% before the policy decision, as Chair Kevin Warsh provided little forward guidance on the outlook for interest rates. Separately, reports indicated that Warsh is considering reducing the number of Federal Reserve policy meetings from the current eight per year.

Crude oil fell about 5% to below $80 a barrel on Monday after US President Donald Trump called off a planned military strike on Iran and said fresh negotiations with Tehran would begin. Trump said regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, had urged Washington to pursue diplomacy, prompting him to suspend the attack while efforts continue to secure a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran denied holding direct talks with the US but said discussions with Oman were making progress toward improving shipping through the strategic waterway. Elsewhere, Turkey and Iraq extended a key oil pipeline agreement by one year, supporting alternative export routes. Kazakhstan also resumed crude intake through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium after a brief suspension, although exports remain vulnerable to drone attacks targeting tankers. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved another modest production increase, completing the planned restoration of supply cuts introduced in 2023.

The S&P Global Italy Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.3 in July 2026 from 52.2 in June, missing market expectations of 52.3 and marking its lowest reading in four months. The slowdown reflected fading support from earlier stockpiling linked to the Iran conflict, as new orders declined again amid subdued demand, with firms citing geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Export orders also fell for the first time in five months. Manufacturing output expanded at a softer pace, while longer supplier delivery times provided a positive contribution to the headline index despite reflecting ongoing supply disruptions. Backlogs of work recorded their sharpest decline of the year, and both employment and purchasing activity weakened. At the same time, input cost pressures eased, while business confidence deteriorated.

The annual inflation rate eased to 31.75% in July 2026 from 32.11% in June, slightly below market expectations of 31.8%. It marked the lowest reading since March, as price growth slowed particularly for housing and utilities (40.32% vs 45.14% in June), transport (30.83% vs 31.15%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (29.38% vs 34.15%). In contrast, inflation accelerated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (37.53% vs 35.45%), clothing and footwear (16.48% vs 14.18%), and furniture and household goods (22.41% vs 22.32%). Despite easing inflation, Middle East-driven energy price volatility is expected to keep the central bank cautious, given the country’s reliance on energy imports. The monetary authority suspended repo funding in March and shifted to its costlier 40% overnight rate, with economists seeing limited scope for rate cuts this year. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose to a three-month high of 1.78% from 0.99% in June, though slightly below market forecasts of 1.83%.