Crude oil fell toward $102 per barrel on Monday, retreating from recent highs despite fears that strikes against Iran could resume following this week’s Israeli elections and next week’s US midterm elections. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he would soon decide whether to pursue a deal with Tehran or restart military operations, as threats from Iran and the Houthis against Americans in the Middle East continue to escalate. Iran is reportedly prepared to retaliate, potentially targeting Israel and the UAE. Meanwhile, clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels intensified over the weekend, with the rebel group claiming to have targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in response to Saudi strikes on Sanaa and other parts of Yemen on Saturday. Despite these developments, Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to near prewar levels, although a renewed escalation in the conflict could further disrupt regional energy supplies.

US stock indices closed lower on Friday as surging oil prices weighed on equities and bonds. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq closed flat and the Dow shed 653 points. Escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil higher, stoking inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Treasury yields rose after the market’s strongest session in over a year. Financial stocks dipped, with JPMorgan down 1.5%, Morgan Stanley falling 2.4% and BlackRock losing 1.7%. American Express dropped 3.7% despite beating earnings expectations and announcing plans to cut 5% of its global workforce. Among AI hyperscalers, Alphabet lost 1.2%, Meta shed 1% and Amazon retreated 0.9%. Concerns over rising debt to finance AI infrastructure pressured tech stocks this week. Most chipmakers recovered on Friday but still posted sharp weekly losses. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1%, the Nasdaq lost 2.1% and the Dow added 296 points.

Gold prices fell below $4,000 an ounce on Friday, hitting their lowest level since mid-July and putting the precious metal down almost 4% for the week, as rising oil prices strengthened expectations that US interest rates will remain higher for longer. Brent crude surged to a four-year high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns over further energy supply disruptions. Meanwhile, recent US data showed consumer and producer inflation rising more than expected, largely driven by higher energy costs, reinforcing concerns over persistent inflationary pressures. Despite this, Federal Reserve officials are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their October 27–28 meeting. Markets currently price in just a 10% chance of a rate hike next week, compared with odds of around 80% for December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors now await US PCE inflation data due October 29 for further clues on progress towards the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

The US Composite PMI eased to 57.6 in October 2026 from 58.4 in September, a two-month low, but remained firmly in expansion territory and signalled the second-strongest increase in business activity since March 2022. Growth in new orders strengthened to its highest level in more than four-and-a-half years, while export sales recorded their largest gain since May 2022. Employment also remained strong, rising at its fastest pace since June 2022 as companies increased staffing to meet demand and address growing backlogs. However, mounting cost pressures drove selling-price inflation to its highest level since August 2022. Input costs rose at their fastest pace since November 2022, excluding September’s increase. Meanwhile, business confidence for the year ahead weakened slightly but remained the second-highest reading recorded this year.

Retail sales in Canada likely increased 0.7% month-over-month in September 2026, extending a 1.2% rise in August, according to preliminary estimates. Meanwhile, data for August was revised down from a preliminary estimate of a 1.3% increase. In August, the largest gain in retail sales was observed at motor vehicle and parts dealers (+1.2%), led by new car dealers (1.5%). In August, gains at automotive parts, accessories and tire retailers (+1.4%) were offset by lower sales at other motor vehicle dealers (-1.4%) and used car dealers (-0.5%). Also, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors increased 1.7%, up for the first time in three months. In volume terms however, sales at gasoline stations and fuel vendors decreased 0.5%. Sales also increased at food and beverage retailers (+1.1%), general merchandise retailers (+1%) and health and personal care retailers (1.6%).

The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 51.9 in October 2026, down from September’s three-and-a-half-year high of 53.1 and below market expectations of 52.7, according to the preliminary estimate. Although business activity expanded for a fourth consecutive month, growth slowed to its weakest pace in the sequence, partly driven by a renewed contraction in French services activity. While strikes and unrest may have disrupted local economic activity in France, growth also eased across the rest of the eurozone, affecting both manufacturing and services. Meanwhile, new order growth weakened, bringing hiring close to stagnation, while rising energy prices drove input costs higher and prompted firms to increase selling prices. Higher interest rates also dampened demand, reinforcing concerns over slowing growth and persistent inflation that could fuel expectations of further ECB tightening. Finally, business confidence fell to a five-month low.