The US economy is expected to have added 65K jobs in October 2026, following a 29K increase in September, with the private sector forecast to account for 64K of the gains. However, seasonal adjustment factors used by the government to filter out recurring fluctuations could weigh on the headline figure. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are projected to have risen 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.1% in September, although the annual growth rate is expected to have slowed to 2.9% from 3%, marking its lowest level in 5-1/2 years. Overall, the report is expected to point to a relatively stable labor market, with monthly job gains of around 40K considered sufficient to keep pace with growth in the working-age population.

Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.7% month over month in September 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in August and significantly missing market expectations of a 0.1% decline. The contraction matched July’s sharp drop, marking the steepest monthly declines since June 2024, with sales of non-food products falling 1.2%, reversing a 0.6% increase in August, while food, drinks and tobacco sales declined 0.3%, following a 0.4% gain in the previous month. In contrast, automotive fuel sales rose 1.0%, rebounding after two consecutive months of declines. Among the eurozone’s largest economies, retail trade contracted sharply in Germany (-2.0% vs. 1.2% in August), followed by the Netherlands (-0.7% vs. 0.5%), France (-0.6% vs. 0.3%) and Spain (-0.4% vs. 0.2%). Italy was the exception, with sales edging up 0.1% after remaining unchanged in August. On a yearly basis, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% from 1.3% in August, also falling short of market expectations of 0.6%.

Brent crude hovered at around $98 a barrel on Friday, down more than 13% this week, the steepest decline since March 2020, as hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East eased concerns over supply disruptions. US President Donald Trump discussed de-escalation efforts with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, while Tehran is reportedly reviewing proposals from mediators concerning its nuclear programme. A potential resolution to the conflict could allow more crude exports from the region. However, significant obstacles remain, as Iran is demanding the lifting of the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, attacks on oil-carrying vessels continue, with UKMTO data indicating that incidents remain close to record levels.

The FAO Food Price Index decreased 1.2% to 133.9 index points in October 2026 from 2022-highs in September. Cereal prices decreased 4.5%, with wheat prices falling amid subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina. In addition, meat cost fell 1.2% as quotations declined for pig, ovine and bovine meat, while poultry meat prices remained broadly stable. Dairy went down 1.1%, driven by declines in international butter and cheese quotations, which more than offset further increases in milk powder prices. On the other hand, prices for vegetable oils edged up 0.3% to a new high since June 2022, mainly driven by higher soybean and sunflower oil quotations, which more than offset lower rapeseed oil prices, while palm oil prices remained virtually unchanged. Sugar jumped 6.6% to a fresh 2024-high, mainly driven by rainfall-related disruptions to sugarcane harvesting and crushing operations in Brazil's key Centre-South producing region.

Germany’s industrial production rose 0.7% month-on-month in September 2026, beating expectations for no change but slowing from a downwardly revised 1.0% increase in August. The growth in September was primarily driven by a 17.1% increase in automotive production, which had been subdued in the previous two months partly due to production changeovers and factory holidays. Pharmaceutical output also rebounded (8.0%). However, these gains were partly offset by a 2.6% drop in construction output, while production for machinery and equipment fell 6.5%, reversing a 5.8% rise in August. Excluding energy and construction, industrial output was up 1.7%, with increases across capital goods (3.0%), consumer goods (0.8%) and intermediate goods (0.1%). Outside of industry, energy production decreased 1.2%. Meanwhile, production in energy-intensive industrial branches rose 0.8%. On a yearly basis, industrial production increased 0.4%, following a downwardly revised 0.7% rise in August.

The Lloyds House Price Index showed UK house prices dropped 1.2% year-on-year in October 2026, exceeding market expectations for a 0.3% decline, following a 0.1% fall in September. This marked the steepest annual fall since October 2023. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.6%, compared with a 0.1% decrease in September, while the average property price dropped to £296,285 from £298,167. Lloyds Mortgages Director Andrew Asaam said renewed inflationary pressures, partly driven by the conflict in the Middle East, were keeping borrowing costs high and weighing on household finances, making buyers more cautious. He added that market conditions are likely to remain subdued in the near term, although a sustained period of falling house prices is not expected. Regionally, Northern Ireland recorded the strongest annual growth at 4.4%, followed by Scotland at 2.8%, the North West at 2.2%, and the North East at 2%. Meanwhile, Greater London posted the largest annual decline at 3.1%.