Crude oil fell 3.2% to $84.88 per barrel as expectations increased that the US and Iran could reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although officials warned a deal was not guaranteed. Prices declined about 6% this week but remain more than 20% higher since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28. A Trump administration official said there is an 80% chance of a deal being signed soon, with the agreement potentially involving the reopening of Hormuz, removal of the naval blockade, dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program and economic incentives if Tehran complies. However, conflicting reports emerged after Iranian media published a draft proposal suggesting different terms, including US force withdrawals and reconstruction funding. President Trump said it did not reflect the agreed terms. Pakistan’s Prime Minister said a final text had been reached, while Iran’s foreign minister said an understanding was closer than ever but urged caution until finalized.

US stocks rose on Friday as SpaceX’s strong market debut boosted sentiment and investors remained optimistic about a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, the Nasdaq rose 0.3%, and the Dow Jones advanced 0.7%. SpaceX opened on the Nasdaq at $150 per share, above its $135 IPO price, and surged more than 20% shortly after trading began before closing 19% higher at $161.11. The rally lifted confidence across markets, with some investors viewing other shares as undervalued. Nvidia was slightly higher, while AMD and Alphabet gained 4.7% and 0.5%. Broadcom, Palantir, Amazon and Meta closed lower. Markets briefly weakened after President Trump warned Iran to “get their act together,” but sentiment improved after reports suggested progress toward a US-Iran agreement. Iranian media said the draft deal includes lifting oil sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and reports indicated a potential signing could take place in Switzerland as soon as Sunday.

Signals that the US and Iran were converging toward a deal to end their conflict will maintain the global spotlight on the outlook of energy supply from the Middle East. Additionally, the Fed will decide on its policy rate on Chairman Warsh's first meeting. Also in the policy front, the BoE, BoJ, RBA, Riksbank, SNB, Norges Bank, and BCB will also set rates. Germany will post sentiment indicators, while Japan will release its inflation rate and machinery orders- US retail sales, trade terms, and industrial production will shape their economic calendar. Meanwhile, the UK will post its inflation rate, retail sales, and labor market data. China's monthly data-dump week will include industrial production, retail sales, the unemployment rate, housing prices, and fixed asset investment. Lastly, local elections in the UK could shape the futures of incumbent PM Starmer.

Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.72% in May 2026 from 4.39% in the previous month, slightly above forecasts of 4.66%, and marking the highest since September 2025. Price pressures intensified for food and beverages (3.87% vs 0.69%), housing (6.22% vs 6.19%), clothing (4.60% vs 4.38%), health and personal care (6.04% vs 5.66%), personal expenses (5.77% vs 5.71%), and communication (1.75% vs 1.59%). Energy and fuel inflation remained elevated at 8.90%, edging up from 8.80% in April, reflecting supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Iran conflict. However, motor fuel prices rose at a slower pace, increasing 5.34% compared with 6.67% in the previous month. Meanwhile, inflation eased slightly for transportation (4.05% vs 4.15%) and education (6.36% vs 6.41%).

Gold traded around $4,200 per ounce on Friday, as oil prices fell on growing optimism for a US-Iran peace deal. However, bullion remained on track for a second consecutive weekly decline due to expectations of higher interest rates. US President Donald Trump suggested a deal could be reached as early as this weekend, though Tehran stated no final decision had been made. Since the Iran conflict began, gold has faced pressure amid concerns that surging energy costs could drive inflation higher, reinforcing expectations that central banks will maintain elevated interest rates. Supporting this view, the European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday for the first time since 2023 and upwardly revised its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Additionally, US producer prices climbed 6.5% year-over-year in May, underscoring the inflationary impact of the Middle East energy shock and strengthening expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year.

The inflation rate in India rose to 3.9% in May of 2026 from 3.5% in the previous month, the highest since January of the previous year. Still, it was less than market expectations of 4%, remaining below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-point threshold of 4%. Food inflation, which is a major part of the Indian consumer basket, rose to 4.8% from 4.2% in April, also the highest in 16 months, as the war in the Middle East lifted energy and fertilizer prices that are essential in Indian food production. Meanwhile, price growth was high for personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services (18.5%) and restaurants and accommodation (5.75%). On the other hand, inflation was muted for transportation (1.75%) and housing and utilities (1.73%). From the previous month, consumer prices rose by 0.8%.