Crude oil traded around $91.2 a barrel on Friday and was up more than 9% for the week, marking its strongest weekly performance since mid-July, as the war in the Middle East continued with little prospects of peace. Iran and the US exchanged missile strikes this week, while Israel’s defense minister threatened “crippling” attacks on Iran’s infrastructure, including energy facilities. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said the US does not plan to hold peace talks with Iran until it stops attacking ships in Hormuz, adding to upward pressure on oil prices as Iran signals its determination to maintain a hard-line response to the latest US strikes. The EU has formally joined the US-led sanctions campaign against Iran, while South Korea said it is considering a military role. The rally could lose momentum if shipments through the Strait increase. Reports on Iraqi oil exports indicate an average of 2.35 million barrels per day in August, mostly shipped through southern routes.

US stocks closed mostly lower on Friday after stronger-than-expected labor market data gave the Fed more room to raise interest rates. The S&P 500 lost 0.4%, the Dow shed 272 points, while the Nasdaq added 0.2%. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162K, above expectations for a gain of just over 50K jobs. Credit-sensitive sectors pulled back after the data as yields rebounded. Alphabet shed 1.1%, Microsoft lost 2%, Tesla tumbled 5.9%, and Palantir shed 4.5%, while JPMorgan retreated 0.9% and Visa fell 1%. Still, chipmakers rose after underperforming earlier in the week, helping to support the Nasdaq. Nvidia gained 0.8%, Micron rose 6.1%, Intel added 4.5%, and Marvell advanced 7% amid signs of optimism surrounding OpenAI’s new GPT model. Sandisk soared 11.9%, and AMD added 4.7%. On the week, the Dow dropped 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.1% and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. The US stock market will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Brazil’s trade surplus widened 23.8% year-on-year to $7.39 billion in August 2026, above forecasts of $7.14 billion. Exports increased 12.2% to $33.16 billion, with agricultural exports rising 11.4%, extractive industry exports gaining 16.4%, and manufacturing exports increasing 10.2%. Export growth was mainly driven by higher sales of live animals, unroasted coffee, and soybeans in agriculture; copper ores and concentrates, nickel ores and concentrates, and crude petroleum in extractive industries; and poultry meat, soybean meal and other animal feed, and fuel oils in manufacturing. Imports rose 9.2% to $25.76 billion. Agricultural imports increased 7.4%, while manufacturing imports rose 13.4%. Imports by extractive industries fell 41.3%. Trade with the EU performed strongly, with exports rising 46.4%, while the trade surplus with China and Argentina narrowed and trade with the US resulted in a deficit.

Signs of tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf will be monitored after the outbreak of strikes between Iran and the US, prolonging the shock to energy supply from the region. The US will publish consumer and producer inflation rates, the last major releases before the Federal Reserve's September decision. Other key data includes Michigan consumer sentiment and existing home sales. In turn, Canada and Brazil will publish inflation rates. Meanwhile, the ECB will decide on interest rates, Germany will unveil industrial production, and the UK will release monthly GDP data. In Asia, a busy week will feature goods trade flows from China following renewed tariffs by the US, in addition to fresh CPI figures. Also, Japan is set to post its PPI, current account, and wages aggregates. Lastly, trade data from Taiwan could offer hints on AI infrastructure demand.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose nearly 3 basis points to 4.79% on Friday, reversing declines in the previous two sessions following a stronger-than-expected jobs report. The US economy added 162K jobs in August, well above forecasts of 56K, while figures for the previous two months were also revised slightly higher. The report prompted investors to ramp up bets on a Fed rate hike, with markets now pricing in a nearly 52% chance of a 25bps increase in the federal funds rate this month. Earlier in the week, bonds sold off following a surge in oil prices and a pledge from Fed Chair Warsh to tame inflation, before recovering after Governor Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged if inflation continues to move toward the 2% target. Still, the Fed’s September decision remains highly uncertain for investors, with inflation data due next week expected to provide further clues on the central bank’s next move.

Employment in Canada declined by 41,700 in August 2026, missing expectations for a 15,000 increase and following a 75,100 gain in July. Employment fell in business, building and other support services (-2.8%), public administration (-0.7%), natural resources (-2.3%), and utilities (-3.5%), while manufacturing employment increased 1.2%. By province, employment declined in Quebec (-0.4%) and edged down in Ontario (-0.2%), while it increased in New Brunswick (0.6%) and was little changed elsewhere. By age group, employment fell among youth aged 15 to 24 (-0.7%) and edged down among core-age workers aged 25 to 54 (-0.1%). Public-sector employment fell 0.4%, marking a third consecutive monthly decline, while private-sector employment was little changed. The employment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 60.8%. Year-on-year, employment increased by 217,000 in August.