European equity markets were set to open flat to slightly lower on Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of a busy week. On deck are Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech and key US economic data, which could provide clues on the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Treasury yields eased alongside oil prices, with Brent falling toward $93 a barrel, as markets awaited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s fiscal consolidation plans and details of his planned economic measures against Iran, which he described as the “single greatest financial offensive ever.” In corporate news, Nvidia’s earnings and guidance will be closely watched for signs of the sustainability of the AI spending boom and whether the rally this year has further room to run. In premarket trading, Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.1%, while Stoxx 600 futures were flat.

Corn futures climbed toward $5 per bushel, hitting a seventeen-month high as growing concerns over US crop yields fueled expectations of tighter supplies. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimated the national corn yield at 173.2 bushels per acre, well below the USDA’s August forecast of 180.7 bushels and implying production of 15.344 billion bushels, around 670 million below the government’s estimate. Yield results from all seven states surveyed by the tour came in below last year’s levels, with Illinois at 184.19 bushels per acre, down from 199.57 a year earlier. Strong export demand is adding to the bullish outlook, with US corn export commitments already 24% above last year and exceeding the USDA’s full-year projection. Meanwhile, hot and dry conditions across parts of the US Corn Belt have added to crop stress, while adverse weather in Europe and continued disruptions to Ukrainian grain shipments are raising concerns over global supplies.

The Canadian dollar fell to around 1.38 per US dollar, retreating from a three-month high as the US-Canada trade war intensified following the collapse of negotiations. President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods took effect on Saturday after weeks of talks broke down shortly before the deadline. The new levies are expected to affect around 5% of Canada’s annual exports to the US, worth roughly $20 billion, covering products such as hockey sticks, agricultural products, wine, cement, clothing, furniture, cameras, and other consumer goods. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the country would impose retaliatory tariffs starting September 8. Geopolitical tensions also kept investors cautious, with the US expected to announce fresh sanctions on Iran later in the day. Meanwhile, markets are looking ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech later this week for further clues about the outlook for US interest rates.

The dollar index held its decline around 98.8 on Monday, remaining under pressure after posting significant losses last week, as a sharp rise in Treasury yields heightened concerns over the US government’s mounting debt burden and weighed on the dollar’s appeal. The greenback's decline came as Treasury Secretary Bessent outlined a debt-buyback strategy he described as a “Treasury twist,” under which the government would buy back longer-dated Treasury securities to help influence the yield curve and manage borrowing costs. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor tensions in the Middle East, with the US expected to announce new sanctions against Tehran. Iran, which has already faced decades of US sanctions, said the new measures were “bound to fail.” Investors are now turning their attention to key US economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals, including the July PCE inflation report and remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium later this week.

Gold rose to around $4,650 an ounce on Monday, extending last week’s gains and reaching its highest level since mid-May, as concerns over US debt management and fiscal sustainability persisted following the Treasury’s unexpected ramp-up in longer-dated debt buybacks. The move pushed bond yields and the dollar lower, reviving the so-called debasement trade and boosting gold’s appeal as an alternative store of value. On the geopolitical front, threatened new US sanctions on Iran are raising the risk of further disruptions to Iranian oil supplies, potentially pushing energy prices higher and limiting the scope for interest-rate cuts. Investors will now focus on July PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for further clues on the US rate outlook. Meanwhile, Canada’s planned retaliatory tariffs on some US goods after trade talks collapsed add to broader economic uncertainty.

Retail sales in New Zealand unexpectedly dropped 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, reversing an upwardly revised 1.0% growth in the previous quarter and defying market expectations of a 0.1% rise. It was the first quarterly decline in retail sales since Q3 2024, with the figures adjusted for inflation and seasonal effects. The decline was broad-based, with eight of the 15 retail industries recording lower sales volumes, with notable declines in fuel (-13%), motor vehicles and parts (-2.3%), accommodation (-8.0%), and food and beverage services (-2.8%). By contrast, electrical and electronic goods sales rose 9.2%. On an annual basis, retail turnover increased by 3.3%, easing from a 4.5% gain in Q1 and marking the weakest quarterly growth in a year.