Crude oil traded near $86 per barrel on Wednesday, hovering close to eleven-week lows on signs of easing tensions between the US and Iran. President Donald Trump suggested that additional military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary, fueling optimism for a possible diplomatic settlement. Meanwhile, Congressional Democrats are considering leveraging the upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration toward ending the conflict. However, uncertainty persists as Iran demands relief from US sanctions and the naval blockade before agreeing to peace talks. At the same time, Middle Eastern oil shipments have nearly returned to prewar levels despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The US oil benchmark has fallen almost 20% from its late-October peak, reversing much of its recent gains as hopes for de-escalation strengthened and regional oil exports continued to recover.

South Korea’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 2.5% in October 2026 from 2.6% in the previous month, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. The economy added 139,000 jobs, exceeding the 100,000 mark for the fourth consecutive month and bringing total employment to 29.18 million. Healthcare and social welfare led job creation, adding 249,000 workers, followed by transportation and storage (+48,000) and business facilities management and support services (+37,000). In contrast, accommodation and food services employment fell by 137,000, while agriculture, forestry and fishing (-101,000) and construction (-42,000) also recorded declines. Manufacturing employment slipped by 7,000, reversing the previous month's increase. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people declined by 56,000 year-on-year to 602,000, while the economically inactive population increased by 179,000 to 16.30 million. Youth employment for those aged 15 to 29 fell by 1.7 percentage points to 42.9%.

The Reuters Tankan index for Japanese manufacturers rose for the fourth consecutive month to +27 in November 2026, from +22 in the previous month, marking its highest reading since August 2021, supported by continued strength in semiconductor and data center demand. Electronics surged to +39 from +25, with precision machinery, including chip equipment, leading the gains by climbing to +42 from +38, boosted by strong demand from both domestic and overseas markets. Other sectors also reported gains, with chemicals rising to +33 from +27, while oil refining and ceramics advanced to +25 from +14. Meanwhile, non-manufacturers’ sentiment increased to +35, the highest since June 2018, from +23, which was the lowest reading since November 2024, reflecting a sharp rebound in confidence in the service and domestic sectors. Looking three months ahead, manufacturers expect sentiment to improve to +28, while non-manufacturers expect sentiment to weaken to +29.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose past the 5% threshold, extending the rebound from a near-two-month low of 4.84% on November 5th after hot inflation data consolidated bets that the Fed will deliver multiple additional rate hikes in the current cycle. Both headline and core consumer prices rose more than expected in October, adding to evidence that soaring energy prices are being transmitted into core sectors of a resilient economy. The data followed hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller, who said he would support a 50bps increase in December if inflation continued to accelerate. Also, Dallas Fed President Logan supported at least two additional 25bps increases. Treasury yields of all maturities had already rebounded this week as markets regained risk sentiment following a brief flight to safety after the Democratic Party gained control of Congress, driving markets to reconsider advances in the tech sector that has carried investment in the US economy.

The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down to 97.8 in October 2026 from 97.9 in September, a new low since June and compared to forecasts of 97.7. “There was little change in optimism among small businesses in October as owners navigated enduring challenges, though there were some encouraging developments,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. The percent of small business owners reporting the quality or availability of labor as their top operating problem decreased 1 point to 25%, making it the top reported issue for the fourth consecutive month. The second top issue was taxes, which rose notably from September. 21% of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, the highest level since May 2021. On the other hand, expectations for better business conditions improved, after two months of deterioration. A net 8% of owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, up 2 points from September.

China’s trade surplus widened to $105.28 billion in October 2026, up from $88.00 billion a year earlier, but below forecasts of $125.8 billion. Exports rose less than imports amid efforts to address trade imbalances, with China's trade surplus with the US falling to $32.71 billion from $34 billion in September. Exports surged 35.2% yoy to $412.33 billion, above estimates of 33.5%, as the global AI infrastructure boom continued to sustain strong demand for Chinese high-tech products, although growth eased from 36.3% in September. Amid pressure from the US and the EU on China to address its surging trade surplus, exports to the US (32.9% vs 39.56% in September) and the EU (24.4% vs 25.3%) both eased. Imports soared 41.6% yoy to $307.05 billion, beating forecasts of 32%. In the first ten months of 2026, the trade surplus reached $1.043 trillion, topping $1 trillion for the second consecutive year and putting the annual figure on track to surpass last year's record of $1.2 trillion.