US natural gas futures rose to near $3.9 per MMBtu, the highest since December 2022, as bets of stronger global LNG demand magnified the outlook of higher domestic consumption. Fresh forecasts of a cold front in the US halfway through January drove the industry to raise demand forecasts by 18 billion cubic feet into the weekend. This coincided with data from the EIA showing that gas storage fell by over 100bcf for the second straight week, deepening the anticipated start to the withdrawal season. In turn, the decreasing likelihood that Europe will continue to receive Russian gas through Ukraine drove investors to take long LNG positions as EU members search for alternative gas sources. This raises demand for US LNG at the turn of the US presidency, with President-elect Trump pledging to issue more LNG export permits, driving firms to favor more profitable exports instead of cheaper gas sales domestically due to the ample domestic supply.

The Baltic Exchange Dry Bulk Index, which measures shipping rates for dry bulk commodities, edged up by 3 points to 997 on Tuesday. However, it posted a 52.5% annual decline, marking its worst year since 2014 due to weak rates across all vessel categories. The capesize index, tracking large ships carrying cargoes like iron ore and coal, rose 15 points to 1,147 but plunged 66.7% this year. The panamax index, for medium-sized vessels transporting coal or grain, added 8 points to 988, down 48.7% annually. Smaller supramax vessels saw their index drop 9 points to 923, a 32% annual decrease and the lowest since August 2023. The Baltic report will resume on January 2, 2025, after the holidays.

The composite manufacturing index in the US Fifth District rose to -10 in December 2024 from -14 in November, signaling a slight improvement. Among its components, shipments and employment were stable, while new orders improved from -19 to -11. The local business conditions index reached 0, up from -14, and expectations for future business conditions rose from 31 to 40, showing optimism for the next six months. Future shipments and new orders also turned more positive. The vendor lead time index increased from 4 to 11, and fewer firms reported declining backlogs, with that index improving to -13 from -27. Price trends showed mixed results: the growth rate of prices paid edged up slightly, while prices received slowed. However, firms anticipated faster growth in both prices paid and received over the next year.

European markets ended higher on Tuesday in a shortened session ahead of Christmas Eve. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%, with tech stocks leading gains after a strong performance by US peers on Monday. London's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 also closed in positive territory. Novo Nordisk surged 5.7%, recovering from last week’s slump following disappointing trial results for its CagriSema weight-loss drug. AstraZeneca withdrew its EU application for a lung cancer treatment after feedback from regulators, with shares closing up 0.1%. Mining stocks boosted the Stoxx 600, led by Anglo American, up 2%, despite facing $17 billion in potential fines in Chile over alleged environmental violations. Reports of China’s planned record treasury bond issuance in 2025 supported sentiment. At the other end, Vistry Group dropped 16% after revising profit forecasts downward due to year-end delays, while Swedish gambling firm Evolution continued its slide amid regulatory scrutiny.

European natural gas futures climbed to €46 per megawatt-hour, rebounding from a one-month low of €39 on December 16, driven by supply concerns. With a key transit deal between Russia and Ukraine set to expire in a week, fears of disruption are mounting. Forecasts for colder weather across Europe add to pressure, as gas stockpiles deplete faster than usual. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy signaled resistance to transiting Russian gas without guarantees that the Kremlin won't profit amid the war. A supply halt could significantly impact countries like Slovakia, which remains reliant on Russian gas and is seeking alternative arrangements. While Europe has reduced its dependence on Russian gas, some nations still depend on these flows, and a halt could spike demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG). This would intensify competition with Asia for shipments, particularly as delays affect LNG expansion projects,

The Shanghai Composite surged 42 points, or 1.3%, to close at 3,394, while the Shenzhen Component soared 1.3% to 10,671, halting losses from the previous session, after Beijing ramped up fiscal support to revive a faltering economy. Chinese authorities have agreed to issue CNY 3 trillion (USD 411.04 billion) in special treasury bonds next year, which would be the highest on record to support economic growth. Adding to the bullish mood was a report from Chinese state media, Global Times, stating that foreign institutions maintain a positive outlook on China's capital market for 2025, anticipating gradual economic stabilization. The indices hit a near two-week high, tracking strong gains on Wall Street overnight, supported by robust performances from big tech and semiconductor stocks. Among the top performers were Hubei Wanrun New Energy Tech (14.3%), ASR Microelectronics (12.4%), Jilin Joinature Polymer (11.9%), Nanjing Huamai Tech (10.0%), and Xinyaqiang Silicon Chemistry (10.0%).