Personal spending in the United States edged up 0.1 percent from a month earlier in January, after falling 0.6 percent in December, the most in a decade. The latest reading came in below market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain, as an increase in consumption of nondurables and services offset a sharp decline in durables spending. Personal Spending in the United States averaged 0.53 percent from 1959 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 1987.

Personal Spending in the United States is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Personal Spending in the United States to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Personal Spending is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Personal Spending
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-29 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3%
2018-12-21 03:00 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3%
2019-03-01 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM -0.5% 0.6% -0.2% -0.2%
2019-03-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.1% -0.6% 0.3% 0.4%
2019-04-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.3% 0.5%
2019-04-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.1% 0.2%
2019-05-31 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM



US Personal Spending Rebounds Less than Expected

Personal spending in the United States edged up 0.1 percent from a month earlier in January, after falling 0.6 percent in December, the most in a decade. The latest reading came in below market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain, as an increase in consumption of nondurables and services offset a sharp decline in durables spending.

Due to the recent partial government shutdown, this report combines estimates for January and February 2019. January estimates include both personal income and outlays measures, while February estimates are limited to personal income. Estimates of outlays for February will be available with the next release on April 29, 2019, according to the source.

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2019

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by $8.6 billion, or 0.1 percent, in January, following a revised $81.5 billion decline, or 0.6 percent, in December. The increase in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, was due to consumption of nondurable goods (0.3 percent vs -2.2 percent in December) and services (0.2 percent vs 0.3 percent). By contrast, spending on durable goods continued to fall (-1.2 percent vs -2.9 percent).

Real PCE increased $15.6 billion, or 0.1 percent, which reflected a $20.8 billion increase in spending for services that was partially offset by a decrease of $7.7 billion in spending for goods. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for financial services and insurance. Within goods, new motor vehicles was the leading contributor to the decrease.

Personal income fell $22.9 billion, or 0.1 percent, in January, due to decreases in personal dividend income, farm proprietors’ income, and personal interest income that were partially offset by increases in social security benefit payments (related to cost of living adjustments) and other government social benefits to persons, which includes the Child Tax Credit and the Affordable Care Act refundable tax credit.

Disposable personal income dropped $34.9 billion, or 0.2 percent, and real DPI also decreased 0.2 percent. The PCE price index decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

Personal outlays increased $6.3 billion in January. Personal saving was $1.19 trillion in January and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.5 percent.

Personal Income, February 2019

Personal income increased $42.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, in February, boosted by wages and salaries, government social benefits to persons, and proprietors’ income, which were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $31.3 billion, or 0.2 percent.


BEA | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
3/29/2019 1:00:08 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 96.90 98.40 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 1.60 -0.20 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.60 2.20 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 1.20 -0.20 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 13032.30 12953.29 13032.30 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15944.70 15913.40 15948.29 351.54 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.10 -0.60 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 -0.10 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 7.50 7.70 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 15.19 17.72 28.64 -18.63 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9709.77 9668.03 9709.77 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 54.20 55.70 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 5.00 4.80 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3232.00 2890.00 15875.00 2890.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.66 0.61 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.40 76.60 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Personal Spending

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity in the United States and is a key driver of growth. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Personal Spending - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Personal Spending - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.10 -0.60 2.80 -2.10 1959 - 2019 percent Monthly
Current Prices, SA




Country Last Previous
France -0.40 Feb/19
Netherlands 0.90 Jan/19
United States 0.10 Jan/19


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