Personal spending in the United States rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent advance in September and beating market expectations of a 0.4 percent gain. It was the largest increase in personal spending since March. Personal Spending in the United States averaged 0.54 percent from 1959 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 1987.

Personal Spending in the United States is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Personal Spending in the United States to stand at 0.35 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Personal Spending is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Personal Spending
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-08-30 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
2018-09-28 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
2018-10-29 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
2018-11-29 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3%
2018-12-21 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
2019-01-31 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM 0.30%
2019-03-01 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM



US Personal Spending Rises the Most in 7 Months



Personal spending in the United States rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent advance in September and beating market expectations of a 0.4 percent gain. It was the largest increase in personal spending since March.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose by $86.9 billion, or 0.6 percent, in October, following a revised $31.5 billion advance, or 0.2 percent, in September. The pick up in consumption growth was due to an increase in consumption of durable goods (0.5 percent vs -0.1 percent in September), nondurables (0.6 percent vs 0.2 percent) and services (0.7 percent vs 0.3 percent).

Real PCE went up $56.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, reflecting an increase of $14.3 billion in spending for goods and a $41.4 billion increase in spending for services. Within goods, spending for prescription drugs was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for household electricity and gas.

Personal income grew $84.9 billion, or 0.5 percent, in October after a $40.2 billion, or 0.2 percent, gain in September. This figure also beat market forecasts of 0.4 percent, mainly driven by gains in wages and salaries, proprietors’ income, and government social benefits to persons. Farm proprietors’ income increased $11.6 billion in October, which included subsidy payments associated with the Department of Agriculture’s Market Facilitation Program.

Personal outlays rose $90.8 billion in October. Personal saving was $967.8 billion in October and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.2 percent.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $81.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, in October. Real DPI advanced 0.3 percent.

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent month-over-month in October, following a 0.1 percent rise in each of the previous four months and matching market expectations. Cost of goods rose by 0.2 percent, compared with a 0.1 percent drop in September, as durable goods prices edged up 0.1 percent (vs -0.4 percent in September) and nondurables increased 0.3 percent (vs 0.1 percent in September). Meanwhile, services inflation was unchanged at 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, PCE prices were up 0.1 percent, after a 0.2 percent gain in September and slightly below market expectations of 0.2 percent. Year-on-year, the PCE price index advanced 2 percent, the same as in the prior month, and the core index rose 1.8 percent, below a 1.9 percent gain in September.


BEA | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/29/2018 2:05:17 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 97.50 97.50 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 1.10 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.20 4.80 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.20 1.00 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 12957.22 12842.02 12957.22 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15700.50 15650.96 15700.50 351.90 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.60 0.20 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.50 0.20 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.20 6.20 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 25.38 22.88 118.08 -113.42 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9493.05 9446.76 9493.05 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.25 5.25 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 52.60 56.40 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 6.60 7.00 7.90 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3959.00 3812.00 15875.00 3055.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.74 0.99 0.32 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 77.30 78.00 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Personal Spending

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity in the United States and is a key driver of growth. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Personal Spending - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Personal Spending - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.60 0.20 2.80 -2.10 1959 - 2018 percent Monthly
Current Prices, SA




Country Last Previous
France 0.80 Oct/18
Netherlands 2.20 Sep/18
United States 0.60 Oct/18


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