Personal spending in the United States rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier in July 2019, following a 0.3 percent growth in June and beating market expectations of 0.5 percent, boosted by consumption of durables, nondurables and services. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 1.6 percent year-on-year, remaining below the central bank's 2 percent target. Personal Spending in the United States averaged 0.54 percent from 1959 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 2001 and a record low of -2.10 percent in January of 1987.

Personal Spending in the United States is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Personal Spending in the United States to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Personal Spending is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Personal Spending
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-05-31 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM Apr 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
2019-06-28 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM May 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2%
2019-07-30 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM Jun 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%
2019-08-30 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM Jul 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%
2019-09-27 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM Aug 0.6% 0.3% 0.4%
2019-10-31 12:30 PM Personal Spending MoM Sep 0.3%
2019-11-27 01:30 PM Personal Spending MoM Oct



US Personal Spending Rises More than Expected

Personal spending in the United States rose 0.6 percent from a month earlier in July 2019, following a 0.3 percent growth in June and beating market expectations of 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 1.6 percent year-on-year, remaining below the central bank's 2 percent target.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose $93.1 billion, or 0.6 percent, in July, boosted by consumption of durables (0.6 percent vs 0.4 percent), nondurables (1.1 percent vs 0.3 percent), and services (0.5 percent vs 0.3 percent).

Real PCE grew $56.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, mainly reflecting an increase of $36.4 billion in spending for goods and a $23.8 billion increase in spending for services. Within goods, recreational goods and vehicles was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for household electricity and gas.

Personal outlays increased $96.4 billion in July. Personal saving was $1.27 trillion in July and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 7.7 percent.

Personal income went up $23.9 billion, or 0.1 percent, in July, boosted by increases in compensation of employees and government social benefits to persons, which were partially offset by a decrease in personal interest income.

Disposable personal income (DPI) advanced $44.4 billion, or 0.3 percent. Real DPI increased 0.1 percent.

The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increased 0.2 percent from a month earlier in July, after a 0.1 percent gain in June. Prices for services advanced 0.2 percent, the same pace as in the previous month. Meanwhile, cost of goods also rose 0.2 percent (vs -0.1 percent in June) as an increase in nondurable goods (0.5 percent vs -0.4 percent) offset a decline in durables (-0.4 percent vs 0.5 percent). Year-on-year, the PCE price index went up 1.4 percent (vs 1.3 percent in June) and the core index increased 1.6 percent, the same as in June and in line with consensus.


BEA | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
8/30/2019 12:46:15 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 92.00 89.80 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.40 0.80 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.10 3.60 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.00 1.00 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 13253.38 13103.32 13253.38 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 16498.38 16453.99 16498.38 351.54 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.60 0.30 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.10 0.50 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 7.70 8.00 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 23.29 13.78 116.79 -111.95 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9867.74 9828.15 9867.74 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.25 5.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 50.80 55.10 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 5.40 6.40 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3085.00 3201.00 15875.00 2632.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.69 0.72 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.30 76.60 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Personal Spending

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. 1 It accounts for about two-thirds of domestic final spending, and thus it is the primary engine that drives future economic growth. PCE shows how much of the income earned by households is being spent on current consumption as opposed to how much is being saved for future consumption. PCE also provides a comprehensive measure of types of goods and services that are purchased by households. Thus, for example, it shows the portion of spending that is accounted for by discretionary items, such as motor vehicles, or the adjustments that consumers make to changes in prices, such as a sharp run-up in gasoline prices. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Personal Spending - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Personal Spending - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.60 0.30 2.80 -2.10 1959 - 2019 percent Monthly
Current Prices, SA




Country Last Previous
France 0.40 Jul/19
Netherlands 1.70 Jul/19
United States 0.60 Jul/19


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