The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US dropped to 47.8 in September 2019 from 49.1 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 50.1. The latest reading pointed to the steepest contraction in the manufacturing sector since June 2009, amid ongoing trade tensions with China. Business Confidence in the United States is reported by Institute for Supply Management.

Business Confidence in the United States is expected to be 50.50 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United States to stand at 51.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is projected to trend around 52.40 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
width
height
Forecast Data Chart
The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds.


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-10-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing Prices Sep 49.7 46.0 48.5 45.5
2019-10-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing New Orders Sep 47.3 47.2 50
2019-10-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing Employment Sep 46.3 47.4 49.1
2019-10-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI Sep 47.8 49.1 50.1 50.1
2019-11-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI Oct 47.8 47.2
2019-12-02 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov 49



US Factory Activity Shrinks the Most in a Decade

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US dropped to 47.8 in September 2019 from 49.1 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 50.1. The latest reading pointed to the steepest month of contraction in the manufacturing sector since June 2009, amid ongoing trade tensions with China.

The production index fell 2.2 points from a month earlier to 47.3, and the employment index dropped 1.1 points to 46.3. In addition, the inventories index slumped 3 points to 46.9, and the supplier deliveries index declined 0.3 points to 51.1.

Meanwhile, new orders continued to decline at a sharp rate (+0.1 points to 47.3) while the price deflation eased (+3.7 points to 49.7).

“Comments from the panel reflect a continuing decrease in business confidence. September was the second consecutive month of PMI® contraction, at a faster rate compared to August. Demand contracted, with the New Orders Index contracting at August levels, the Customers’ Inventories Index moving toward ‘about right’ territory and the Backlog of Orders Index contracting for the fifth straight month (and at a faster rate). The New Export Orders Index continued to contract strongly, a negative impact on the New Orders Index. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) contracted at faster rates, again primarily driven by a lack of demand, contributing negative numbers (a combined 3.3-percentage point decrease) to the PMI® calculation. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — were again lower in September, due to inventory tightening for the fourth straight month. This resulted in a combined 3.3-percentage point decline in the Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes. Imports contraction slowed. Overall, inputs indicate (1) supply chains are meeting demand and (2) companies are continuing to closely match inventories to new orders. Prices decreased for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate.

“Global trade remains the most significant issue, as demonstrated by the contraction in new export orders that began in July 2019. Overall, sentiment this month remains cautious regarding near-term growth,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, three reported growth in September: Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. The 15 industries reporting contraction in September — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Furniture & Related Products; and Computer & Electronic Products."


ISM | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
10/1/2019 2:21:05 PM



United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 47.80 49.10 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Services PMI 50.90 50.70 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 52.60 56.40 62.00 37.80 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.10 50.30 57.90 50.30 [+]
Composite Pmi 51.00 50.70 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.10 0.40 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.40 0.80 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.90 -0.40 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.50 77.90 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.20 2.00 23.20 -18.40 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.60 1.30 25.50 -19.20 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.50 -0.50 6.30 -10.20 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.00 0.20 4.60 -7.00 percent [+]
New Orders 499765.00 500278.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.10 1.40 10.40 -9.70 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.00 0.30 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.03 116.00 173.21 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.20 0.20 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22483.00 22157.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1857.53 1791.42 1873.90 14.67 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 101.80 103.10 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 42.80 50.30 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 4.00 2.00 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 5.60 12.00 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -9.00 1.00 27.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.10 -0.41 2.79 -5.28 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 1.50 2.70 47.60 -59.90 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 47.10 50.40 78.60 21.20 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.20 17.00 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Car Production 2.55 2.67 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 428.44 417.68 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 9.28 2.93 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 104.00 98.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -2562.00 -1213.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 128.88 128.31 128.88 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 10.50 4.13 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 712.00 710.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 83.67 85.64 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 2.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7497.00 7514.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index 11.00 -2.00 37.00 -32.00 Index Points [+]
Mining Production 2.60 5.00 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI™ reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
47.80 49.10 77.50 29.40 1948 - 2019 Index Points Monthly




Country Last Previous
Australia 0.00 Sep/19
Brazil 59.40 Sep/19
Canada 48.70 Sep/19
China 49.80 Sep/19
Euro Area -0.22 Sep/19
France 102.00 Sep/19
Germany 94.60 Sep/19
India 112.80 Sep/19
Indonesia 108.81 Jun/19
Italy 98.80 Sep/19
Japan 5.00 Sep/19
Mexico 50.30 Sep/19
Netherlands 3.30 Sep/19
Russia -2.00 Sep/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Jun/16
Singapore -11.00 Jun/19
South Africa 21.00 Sep/19
South Korea 71.00 Sep/19
Spain -5.30 Sep/19
Switzerland 93.20 Sep/19
Turkey 98.80 Sep/19
United Kingdom -32.00 Sep/19
United States 47.80 Sep/19


Related

Latest