The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 54.1 in December, the weakest since November 2016, from 59.3 in November and missing market expectations of 57.9. It was the largest monthly drop since October 2008 as growth in new orders, production and employment slowed sharply. Business Confidence in the United States is reported by Institute for Supply Management.

Business Confidence in the United States is expected to be 53.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United States to stand at 53.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is projected to trend around 52.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-01-03 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing New Orders 51.1 62.1
2019-01-03 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing Prices 54.9 60.7 58
2019-01-03 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing Employment 56.2 58.4
2019-01-03 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.1 59.3 57.9 56
2019-02-01 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.1
2019-03-01 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
2019-04-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI 53



US Factory Activity Growth Slows to 2-Year Low: ISM

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 54.1 in December, the weakest since November 2016, from 59.3 in November and missing market expectations of 57.9. It was the largest monthly drop since October 2008 as growth in new orders, production and employment slowed sharply.

The New Orders Index posted the biggest monthly decline since January 2014, dropping to its lowest level since August 2016 (51.1 vs 62.1 in November). In addition, a slowdown was recorded in output growth (54.3 vs 60.6) and the pace of job creation (56.2 vs 58.4). Other indexes also fell: supplier deliveries (57.5 vs 62.5); inventories (51.2 vs 52.9); and prices (54.9 vs 60.7).

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, but at much lower levels. Demand softened, with the New Orders Index retreating to recent low levels, the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining too low — a positive heading into the first quarter of 2019 — and the Backlog of Orders declining to a zero-expansion level. Consumption continued to strengthen, with production and employment still expanding, but at much lower levels compared to prior periods. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — softened as well, with suppliers improving delivery performance, and inventories and imports declining.

Exports continue to expand, but at low levels consistent with November. Price increases relaxed to levels not seen since June 2017, when the index registered 53 percent. The manufacturing community continues to expand, but at much lower levels and at a sharp decline from November,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 reported growth in December, in the following order: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Primary Metals. The six industries reporting contraction in December — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.


Institute for Supply Management | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/3/2019 3:20:50 PM



United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 54.10 59.30 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.80 55.30 57.90 50.70 [+]
Services PMI 54.40 54.70 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.60 60.70 62.00 37.60 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.40 54.70 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 3.90 3.80 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 -0.20 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.00 2.20 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.50 78.10 89.39 66.71 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 0.80 -4.30 23.50 -19.00 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.10 -1.40 26.00 -19.70 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30 0.40 7.50 -6.80 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.10 4.60 -7.20 percent [+]
New Orders 502677.00 515334.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.10 0.20 10.60 -10.00 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.60 0.50 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 89.77 -36.81 166.37 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.80 0.70 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22103.00 22245.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 2076.82 2007.53 2076.82 14.70 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104.40 104.80 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 65.40 67.80 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.00 9.10 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 3.90 11.50 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8.00 14.00 29.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22 0.00 2.77 -5.22 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -5.10 17.60 47.10 -60.10 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 65.40 66.40 81.00 20.70 Index Points [+]
Car Production 2.71 2.64 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 431.72 436.69 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.55 17.49 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.68 -1.68 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -81.00 -91.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 7503.00 8066.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 124.80 124.54 124.80 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change -0.56 -6.27 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 873.00 877.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 74.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 18.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7425.00 7571.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 13.20 13.60 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI™ reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
54.10 59.30 77.50 29.40 1948 - 2018 Index Points Monthly




Country Last Previous
Australia 3.00 Nov/18
Brazil 63.80 Dec/18
Canada 59.70 Dec/18
China 49.40 Dec/18
Euro Area 0.82 Dec/18
France 104.00 Dec/18
Germany 101.00 Dec/18
India 64.90 Jun/18
Indonesia 108.05 Sep/18
Italy 103.60 Dec/18
Japan 19.00 Dec/18
Mexico 49.20 Dec/18
Netherlands 7.50 Dec/18
Russia -8.00 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Jun/16
Singapore -1.00 Sep/18
South Africa 31.00 Dec/18
South Korea 71.00 Dec/18
Spain -2.70 Dec/18
Switzerland 96.30 Dec/18
Turkey 91.50 Dec/18
United Kingdom -16.00 Dec/18
United States 54.10 Dec/18


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