The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 47.2 in December, the lowest since June 2009, from 48.1 in November and well below market expectations of 49. The reading pointed to the fifth straight month of decline in manufacturing activity as new orders, production, employment and new export orders shrank at faster pace and price pressures increased. Global trade remains the most significant cross-industry issue, but there are signs that several industry sectors will improve as a result of the phase-one trade agreement between the U.S. and China, according to Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM. Business Confidence in the United States averaged 52.90 points from 1948 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 77.50 points in July of 1950 and a record low of 29.40 points in May of 1980. source: Institute for Supply Management
Business Confidence in the United States is expected to be 51.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United States to stand at 52.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is projected to trend around 52.40 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.
United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI™ reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining.