The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 49.1 in August 2019 from 51.2 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 51.1. The latest reading pointed to the first month of contraction in the manufacturing sector since January 2016 as new orders and employment declined amid concern about US-China trade dispute. Business Confidence in the United States is reported by Institute for Supply Management.

Business Confidence in the United States is expected to be 49.40 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in the United States to stand at 52.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is projected to trend around 52.40 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-03 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing New Orders Aug 47.2 50.8 50.6
2019-09-03 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing Prices Aug 46.0 45.1 45.8 46
2019-09-03 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing Employment Aug 47.4 51.7 51.5
2019-09-03 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI Aug 49.1 51.2 51.1 50.7
2019-10-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI Sep 49.1 49.4
2019-11-01 02:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.7
2019-12-02 03:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov 52.2



US Factory Activity Contracts for 1st Time since 2016

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 49.1 in August 2019 from 51.2 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 51.1. The latest reading pointed to the first month of contraction in the manufacturing sector since January 2016 as new orders and employment declined.

The new order index plunged 3.6 points from a month earlier to 47.2, and the employment index dropped 4.3 points to 47.4. In addition, the production index fell 1.3 points to 49.5, and the supplier deliveries index declined 1.9 points to 51.4.

Meanwhile, the price deflation eased (+0.9 points to 46.0) while inventories fell at a softer pace (+0.4 points to 49.9).

"Comments from the panel reflect a notable decrease in business confidence. August saw the end of the PMI® expansion that spanned 35 months, with steady expansion softening over the last four months. Demand contracted, with the New Orders Index contracting, the Customers' Inventories Index recovering slightly from prior months and the Backlog of Orders Index contracting for the fourth straight month. The New Export Orders Index contracted strongly and experienced the biggest loss among the subindexes. Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment Indexes) contracted at higher levels, contributing the strongest negative numbers (a combined 5.6-percentage point decrease) to the PMI®, driven by a lack of demand. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — were again lower in August, due to inventory tightening for the third straight month and continued slower supplier deliveries. This resulted in a combined 1.5-percentage point decline in the Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes. Imports and new export orders contracted to new lows. Overall, inputs indicate (1) supply chains are responding better and (2) companies are continuing to closely match inventories to new orders, a positive sign for future expansion. Prices contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating lower overall systemic demand.

"Respondents expressed slightly more concern about U.S.-China trade turbulence, but trade remains the most significant issue, indicated by the strong contraction in new export orders. Respondents continued to note supply chain adjustments as a result of moving manufacturing from China. Overall, sentiment this month declined and reached its lowest level in 2019," says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine reported growth in August, in the following order: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. The seven industries reporting contraction in August — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.


ISM | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
9/3/2019 2:16:54 PM



United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 49.10 51.20 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.30 50.40 57.90 50.30 [+]
Services PMI 50.70 53.00 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.40 53.70 62.00 37.80 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.70 52.60 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.50 1.10 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.20 0.20 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.50 0.30 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.50 77.80 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 2.10 1.80 23.20 -18.40 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 1.40 3.10 25.50 -19.20 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.40 0.80 6.30 -10.20 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 -0.10 4.60 -7.00 percent [+]
New Orders 500278.00 493817.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.40 0.50 10.40 -9.70 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.40 0.00 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.03 116.00 173.21 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.20 -0.10 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22483.00 22157.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1882.97 1791.42 1882.97 14.67 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 103.10 104.70 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 4.80 4.30 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 16.80 21.80 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1.00 -12.00 27.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 50.30 43.50 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.36 0.03 2.79 -5.28 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 2.70 -6.30 47.60 -59.90 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 50.40 44.40 78.60 21.20 Index Points [+]
Car Production 2.67 2.62 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 417.60 466.07 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.90 16.80 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -6.91 -4.77 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 78.00 84.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -682.00 -2396.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 128.31 128.29 128.31 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change -7.23 0.40 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 733.00 738.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7514.00 7276.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index -2.00 -6.00 37.00 -32.00 Index Points [+]
Mining Production 5.50 8.40 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI™ reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
49.10 51.20 77.50 29.40 1948 - 2019 Index Points Monthly




Country Last Previous
Australia 1.00 Aug/19
Brazil 59.40 Aug/19
Canada 60.60 Aug/19
China 49.50 Aug/19
Euro Area 0.11 Aug/19
France 102.00 Aug/19
Germany 94.30 Aug/19
India 112.80 Sep/19
Indonesia 108.81 Jun/19
Italy 99.70 Aug/19
Japan 7.00 Jun/19
Mexico 49.70 Aug/19
Netherlands 3.90 Aug/19
Russia -2.00 Aug/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Jun/16
Singapore -11.00 Jun/19
South Africa 21.00 Sep/19
South Korea 68.00 Aug/19
Spain 1.40 Aug/19
Switzerland 97.00 Aug/19
Turkey 102.50 Aug/19
United Kingdom -32.00 Sep/19
United States 49.10 Aug/19


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