The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US rose to 102.4 in May 2019 from 97.2 in the previous month, easily beating market consensus of 97.5, a preliminary estimate showed. That was the highest reading since January 2004, as consumers viewed prospects for the overall economy much more favorably. The survey was conducted before the trade negotiations with China collapsed. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 86.54 Index Points from 1952 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 111.40 Index Points in January of 2000 and a record low of 51.70 Index Points in May of 1980.

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 96.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 88.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 85.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-29 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 98.4 93.8 97.8 97.8
2019-04-12 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 96.9 98.4 98 97
2019-04-26 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 97.2 98.4 97.0 96.9
2019-05-17 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 102.4 97.2 97.5 97
2019-05-31 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 97.2 102.4 99.9
2019-06-14 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 96
2019-06-28 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 96



US Consumer Sentiment Hits 15-Year High

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US rose to 102.4 in May 2019 from 97.2 in the previous month, easily beating market consensus of 97.5, a preliminary estimate showed. That was the highest reading since January 2004.

The consumer expectations sub-index jumped to 96.0 in May from the previous month's 87.4; and the gauge for current economic conditions edged up to 112.4 from 112.3.

Inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 2.8 percent in May from 2.5 percent in April; and the 5-year outlook increased to 2.6 percent from 2.3 percent.

"The Index of Consumer Sentiment surged in early May to its highest level in fifteen years. All of the May gain was in the Expectations Index, which also rose to its highest level since 2004, while the Current Conditions Index was virtually unchanged and well below the cyclical peak set in March 2018. Consumers viewed prospects for the overall economy much more favorably, with the economic outlook for the near and longer term reaching their highest levels since 2004. The gains were recorded mostly before the trade negotiations with China collapsed and China responded with their own tariffs. As shown in the chart, unaided references to tariffs peaked in July 2018 at 35% and have generally declined to just 16% in early May 2019. The July peak corresponds to the initial imposition of tariffs. To be sure, negative references to tariffs rose in the past week and are likely to rise further in late May and June. Those who held negative views about the impact of tariffs on the economy and pricing had values on the Expectations Index that were 25 points lower, and expected the year-ahead inflation rate to be 0.6 percentage points higher. Even apart from the direct impact of tariffs on prices, rising tariffs could cause a more general loss of confidence which could further diminish the pace of consumer spending. At present, the data point toward moderate spending growth in the year ahead. Nonetheless, the data indicate the corrosive impact of an escalating trade war.", Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, said.


University of Michigan | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
5/17/2019 2:21:26 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 102.40 97.20 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 1.70 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.10 3.80 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.10 1.30 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 13071.00 13032.30 13071.00 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15939.42 15938.80 15948.29 351.54 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.90 0.10 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.10 0.20 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.50 7.30 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 10.28 15.45 116.79 -111.95 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9724.94 9709.77 9724.94 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 58.60 54.20 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 5.40 5.90 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3690.00 3236.00 15875.00 2890.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.74 0.66 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.40 76.60 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Consumer Sentiment - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
102.40 97.20 111.40 51.70 1952 - 2019 Index Points Monthly
Volume, NSA, 1966=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 34.40 Apr/19
Australia 101.30 May/19
Brazil 48.40 Mar/19
Canada 53.71 May/19
China 124.10 Mar/19
Euro Area -7.90 Apr/19
France 96.00 Apr/19
Germany 10.40 May/19
India 105.00 Jun/19
Indonesia 128.10 Apr/19
Italy 110.50 Apr/19
Japan 40.40 Apr/19
Mexico 113.70 Apr/19
Netherlands -3.00 Apr/19
Russia -16.00 Mar/19
Saudi Arabia 109.00 Dec/18
South Africa 2.00 Mar/19
South Korea 102.00 Apr/19
Spain 97.00 Apr/19
Switzerland -6.00 Jun/19
Turkey 63.50 Apr/19
United Kingdom -13.00 Apr/19
United States 102.40 May/19


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