The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 98.3 in November of 2018 from 98.6 in October but slightly higher than market expectations of 98. It is the lowest reading in three months, mainly due to a fall in consumer expectations, preliminary estimates showed. Data was collected until Wednesday night so there was only a one-day overlap after the mid-term election results were known by consumers. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 86.43 Index Points from 1952 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 111.40 Index Points in January of 2000 and a record low of 51.70 Index Points in May of 1980.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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US Consumer Sentiment Falls Less than Expected


The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 98.3 in November of 2018 from 98.6 in October but slightly higher than market expectations of 98. It is the lowest reading in three months, mainly due to a fall in consumer expectations, preliminary estimates showed. Data was collected until Wednesday night so there was only a one-day overlap after the mid-term election results were known by consumers.

The gauge for consumer expectations declined to 88.7 from 89.3 in October while the current economic conditions subindex edged up to 113.2 from 113.1. Inflation expectations for the year ahead eased to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent while the 5-year outlook rose to 2.6 percent from 2.4 percent. 

Consumer sentiment remained virtually unchanged in early November from its October reading. Importantly, interviewing went through Wednesday night so there was only a one-day overlap after the mid-term election results were known by consumers. Those few cases held expectations that were identical with the data collected earlier in the month, which is not so surprising given that the split between the House and Senate was widely anticipated. The unchanged data meant that the Sentiment Index remained higher thus far in 2018 (98.4) than in any prior year since 2000. The stability of consumer sentiment at high levels acts to mask some important underlying shifts. Income expectations have improved and consumers anticipate continued robust growth in employment, but consumers also anticipate rising inflation and higher interest rates. While these positive and negative changes act to offset each other in the aggregate, younger consumers have benefited most from more positive income trends and older consumers are more likely to complain about the erosion of their living standards due to rising prices; rising interest rates weigh heavily on younger consumers who are more likely to borrow, and older consumers are more likely to benefit from higher returns on their savings. The renewed strength in nominal income expectations is critical to overall spending prospects. Among the working age population, those between the ages of 25 and 54, the anticipated annual gain in nominal household income was 3.6% in November, the best in the past decade.


University of Michigan | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
11/9/2018 3:12:08 PM


Recent Releases

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 98.6 in October of 2018 from a preliminary estimate of 99 and 100.1 in September. The decline was due to less favorable current economic conditions and higher inflationary pressures.
Published on 2018-10-26

US Consumer Sentiment Lower than Expected
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 99 in October of 2018 from 100.1 in September and below market expectations of 100.4, preliminary estimates showed. The decline was due to less favorable assessments by consumers of their personal finances as upward revisions in the year-ahead expected inflation rate weakened real income expectations.
Published on 2018-10-12

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower in September
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was revised down to 100.1 in September of 2018 from a preliminary reading of 100.8. Yet, the reading was higher than 96.2 in August and topped 100.0 for only the third time since January of 2004. The single issue that was cited as having a potential negative impact on the economy was tariffs. Concerns about the negative impact of tariffs were cited by nearly one-third of all consumers in September.
Published on 2018-09-28

US Consumer Sentiment Surges in September
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US jumped to 100.8 in September of 2018 from 96.2 in August, beating market expectations of 96.7. It is the second highest level since 2004, only behind the March 2018 reading of 101.4, preliminary estimates showed. Expectations were the strongest since July of 2004, largely due to more favorable prospects for jobs and incomes and current conditions were also assessed more favorable.
Published on 2018-09-14



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-12 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 99 100.1 100.4 98
2018-10-26 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 98.6 100.1 99 99
2018-11-09 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 98.3 98.6 98.0 95
2018-11-21 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 98.6 98.3
2018-12-07 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 93
2018-12-21 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final


United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 98.30 98.60 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.10 0.10 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.70 6.50 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.10 0.20 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 12968.54 12842.02 12968.54 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15650.96 15617.39 15650.96 351.90 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.50 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.40 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.20 6.60 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 10.92 22.88 118.08 -113.42 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9446.76 9412.35 9463.65 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.25 5.03 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 56.40 57.80 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 6.10 6.10 7.60 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3979.00 3782.00 15875.00 3055.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.74 0.75 0.99 0.32 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 77.30 78.00 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Consumer Sentiment - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
98.30 98.60 111.40 51.70 1952 - 2018 Index Points Monthly
Volume, NSA, 1966=100




Country Last
Argentina 32.60 Oct/18
Australia 104.30 Nov/18
Brazil 110.60 Oct/18
Canada 55.25 Oct/18
China 118.50 Sep/18
Euro Area -2.70 Oct/18
France 95.00 Oct/18
Germany 10.60 Nov/18
India 95.00 Sep/18
Indonesia 119.20 Oct/18
Italy 116.60 Oct/18
Japan 43.00 Oct/18
Mexico 101.40 Oct/18
Netherlands 15.00 Oct/18
Russia -14.00 Sep/18
Saudi Arabia 107.00 Jun/18
South Africa 22.00 Jun/18
South Korea 99.50 Oct/18
Spain 93.00 Oct/18
Switzerland -6.00 Dec/18
Turkey 57.30 Oct/18
United Kingdom -10.00 Oct/18
United States 98.30 Nov/18


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