The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was steady at 97.5 in December of 2018, the same as in the previous month and above market expectations of 97, preliminary estimates showed. In the last 2 years, consumer sentiment has been above 90, a pattern not seen since 1997 to 2000. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 86.45 Index Points from 1952 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 111.40 Index Points in January of 2000 and a record low of 51.70 Index Points in May of 1980.

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 93.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 97.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 86.70 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-26 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 98.6 100.1 99 99
2018-11-09 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 98.3 98.6 98.0 95
2018-11-21 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 97.5 98.6 98.3 98.3
2018-12-07 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 97.5 97.5 97.0 96
2018-12-21 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 97.5 97.5 97.5



US Consumer Sentiment Above Forecasts



The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was steady at 97.5 in December of 2018, the same as in the previous month and above market expectations of 97, preliminary estimates showed. In the last 2 years, consumer sentiment has been above 90, a pattern not seen since 1997 to 2000.

The gauge for consumer expectations declined to 86.1 from 88.1 in November while the current economic conditions subindex increased to 115.2 from 112.3 in November. Inflation expectations for the year ahead eased to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent and the 5-year outlook fell to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent. 

Consumer sentiment was unchanged from last month's reading and has remained at very favorable levels since the start of 2017. In the two years from January 2017 to December 2018, the Sentiment Index was consistently above 90.0, averaging 97.5, identical to the early December reading. The last time the Sentiment Index was consistently above 90.0 for at least as long was from 1997 to 2000, recording a four-year average of 105.3. There are a number of plausible causes for the difference in consumer optimism from the late 1990's to today, most of which revolve around job and wage prospects. As noted in last month's report, as long as job and income growth remain strong, rising prices and interest rates will not cause substantial cutbacks in spending. In the early December survey, however, consumers did mention hearing much more negative news about future job prospects. Moreover, most consumers understand that the goal of increasing interest rates is to slow the pace of economic growth. In past expansions, there was plenty of room between low and high interest rates to nudge up rates without damaging consumer spending. The gap has been squeezed to just a few percentage points and more caution is now warranted.


University of Michigan | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
12/7/2018 3:10:13 PM


Recent Releases

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell further to 97.5 in November of 2018 from a preliminary reading of 98.3 and 98.6 in October. It is the lowest value in three months. Both current conditions and expectations were revised lower although the drops were more related to income than political party.
Published on 2018-11-21

US Consumer Sentiment Falls Less than Expected
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 98.3 in November of 2018 from 98.6 in October but slightly higher than market expectations of 98. It is the lowest reading in three months, mainly due to a fall in consumer expectations, preliminary estimates showed. Data was collected until Wednesday night so there was only a one-day overlap after the mid-term election results were known by consumers.
Published on 2018-11-09

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 98.6 in October of 2018 from a preliminary estimate of 99 and 100.1 in September. The decline was due to less favorable current economic conditions and higher inflationary pressures.
Published on 2018-10-26

US Consumer Sentiment Lower than Expected
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 99 in October of 2018 from 100.1 in September and below market expectations of 100.4, preliminary estimates showed. The decline was due to less favorable assessments by consumers of their personal finances as upward revisions in the year-ahead expected inflation rate weakened real income expectations.
Published on 2018-10-12



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 97.50 97.50 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 1.10 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.20 4.80 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.20 1.00 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 12957.22 12842.02 12957.22 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15700.50 15650.96 15700.50 351.90 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.60 0.20 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.50 0.20 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.20 6.20 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 25.38 22.88 118.08 -113.42 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9446.76 9412.35 9463.65 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.25 5.25 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 52.60 56.40 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 6.60 7.00 7.90 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3812.00 3980.00 15875.00 3055.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.67 0.74 0.99 0.32 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 77.30 78.00 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Consumer Sentiment - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
97.50 97.50 111.40 51.70 1952 - 2018 Index Points Monthly
Volume, NSA, 1966=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 32.10 Nov/18
Australia 104.40 Dec/18
Brazil 113.60 Nov/18
Canada 57.05 Nov/18
China 119.10 Oct/18
Euro Area -3.90 Nov/18
France 92.00 Nov/18
Germany 10.40 Dec/18
India 94.00 Dec/18
Indonesia 122.70 Nov/18
Italy 114.80 Nov/18
Japan 42.90 Nov/18
Mexico 99.55 Nov/18
Netherlands 13.00 Nov/18
Russia -14.00 Sep/18
Saudi Arabia 107.00 Jun/18
South Africa 7.00 Sep/18
South Korea 96.00 Nov/18
Spain 91.40 Nov/18
Switzerland -6.00 Dec/18
Turkey 59.60 Nov/18
United Kingdom -13.00 Nov/18
United States 97.50 Dec/18


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