The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US increased to 97.8 in March of 2019 from 93.8 in February, beating market expectations of 95.3, preliminary estimates showed. It is the highest reading in three months, amid rising income and lower inflation expectations and more positive growth prospects. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 86.49 Index Points from 1952 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 111.40 Index Points in January of 2000 and a record low of 51.70 Index Points in May of 1980.

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 93.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 92.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 86.70 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-02-01 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 91.2 98.3 90.8 90.7
2019-02-15 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 95.5 91.2 95.5 93.4
2019-03-01 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 93.8 91.2 95.7 95.5
2019-03-15 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 97.8 93.8 95.3 93
2019-03-29 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 93.8 97.8 97.8
2019-04-12 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
2019-04-26 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final



US Consumer Sentiment Beats Forecasts

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US increased to 97.8 in March of 2019 from 93.8 in February, beating market expectations of 95.3, preliminary estimates showed. It is the highest reading in three months, amid rising income and lower inflation expectations and more positive growth prospects.

The index of consumer expectations rose to 89.2 from 84.4 and the gauge for current economic conditions increased to 111.2 from 108.5. Inflation expectations for the year ahead edged down to 2.4 percent from 2.6 percent in February while the 5-year outlook increased to 2.5 percent from 2.3 percent.

The early March gain in sentiment was entirely due to households with incomes in the bottom two-thirds of the distribution, whose sentiment rose to 97.4 from 90.0 in February. Sentiment fell among households with incomes in the top third to 98.5 in early March from 101.7 in February. The difference that accounted for the divergence was how households evaluated their personal finances, as lower income households expressed much more positive assessments. The divergence was due to a monthly jump of one-percentage point in income expectations among middle and lower incomes compared to a change of just one-tenth of a percentage point among those with incomes in the top third. Rising income expectations were accompanied by lower expected year-ahead inflation rates, resulting in more favorable real income expectations. 

Moreover, all income groups voiced more positive prospects for growth in the overall economy during the year ahead. Since households with incomes in the top third account for more than half of all consumer expenditures, cautious observers will conclude that the latest data are another indication that the end of the expansion is on the distant horizon. While that may well be true, the current level of consumer sentiment at 97.8 hardly indicates an emerging downturn; even among households with incomes in the top third, the Sentiment Index is 98.5, and 97.4 in the bottom two-thirds. The data indicate that real consumption will grow by 2.6% in 2019 and that the expansion will set a new record length by mid year.


University of Michigan | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
3/15/2019 2:10:24 PM


News

US February Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 93.8 in February 2019 from a preliminary 95.5, as the bounce-back from the end of the Federal shutdown faded in late February. Still, the latest figure was above January's near two-year low of 91.2 due to a slight improvement in consumer expectations while the current economic conditions continued to deteriorate.
Published on 2019-03-01

US Consumer Sentiment Rises in February
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US rose to 95.5 in February of 2019 from 91.2 in January, preliminary estimates showed. The early February gains reflect the end of the partial government shutdown as well as a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates.
Published on 2019-02-15

US Consumer Sentiment Lowest Since Trump's Election
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US declined to 91.2 in January of 2019 from 98.3 in December, but above a preliminary estimate of 90.7 and market expectations of 90.8. It was the weakest sentiment since President Trump was elected. The end of the shutdown caused only a modest boost in the Sentiment Index
Published on 2019-02-01

US Consumer Sentiment Lowest since Trump was Elected
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 90.7 in January of 2019 from 98.3 in December, well below market expectations of 97. It is the lowest reading since October of 2016. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014.
Published on 2019-01-18



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 97.80 93.80 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 -1.60 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.30 1.60 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.90 -2.10 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 13044.25 12953.29 13044.25 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15907.00 15942.18 15942.18 351.54 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending -0.50 0.60 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income -0.10 1.00 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 7.60 6.10 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 17.05 15.36 118.08 -113.42 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9668.03 9630.97 9668.03 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 55.70 50.30 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 4.90 4.40 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 7611.00 5637.00 15875.00 3055.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.61 0.59 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.40 76.60 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Consumer Sentiment - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
97.80 93.80 111.40 51.70 1952 - 2019 Index Points Monthly
Volume, NSA, 1966=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 34.80 Mar/19
Australia 98.80 Mar/19
Brazil 114.30 Dec/18
Canada 55.08 Mar/19
China 123.00 Dec/18
Euro Area -7.20 Mar/19
France 95.00 Feb/19
Germany 10.80 Mar/19
India 97.00 Mar/19
Indonesia 125.10 Feb/19
Italy 112.40 Feb/19
Japan 41.50 Feb/19
Mexico 119.88 Feb/19
Netherlands -4.00 Mar/19
Russia -17.00 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 109.00 Dec/18
South Africa 7.00 Dec/18
South Korea 99.50 Feb/19
Spain 96.10 Feb/19
Switzerland -4.00 Mar/19
Turkey 59.40 Mar/19
United Kingdom -13.00 Feb/19
United States 97.80 Mar/19


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