The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US rose to 95.5 in February of 2019 from 91.2 in January, preliminary estimates showed. The early February gains reflect the end of the partial government shutdown as well as a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 86.47 Index Points from 1952 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 111.40 Index Points in January of 2000 and a record low of 51.70 Index Points in May of 1980.

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 95.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 92.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 86.70 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-21 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 98.3 97.5 97.5 97.5
2019-01-18 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 90.7 98.3 97.0 97
2019-02-01 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 91.2 98.3 90.8 90.7
2019-02-15 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 95.5 91.2 94.5 93.4
2019-03-01 03:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 91.2 95.5
2019-03-15 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel 95
2019-03-29 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final 95



US Consumer Sentiment Rises in February

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US rose to 95.5 in February of 2019 from 91.2 in January, preliminary estimates showed. The early February gains reflect the end of the partial government shutdown as well as a more fundamental shift in consumer expectations due to the Fed's pause in raising interest rates.

The current economic conditions subindex increased to 110 from 108.8 in January and the gauge for consumer expectations went up to 86.2 from 79.9. Inflation expectations for the year ahead declined to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent and the 5-year outlook dropped to 2.3 percent from 2.6 percent.

The lingering impact of the shutdown was responsible for some of the negative economic evaluations, and, at the time that these interviews were conducted, uncertainty about whether a second shutdown would occur continued to have a slight depressing impact on confidence. Although the majority of consumers expected some additional rate hikes during the year ahead, that proportion has shrunk to the smallest level in the past two years. Perhaps more importantly, consumers' long term inflation expectations fell to the lowest level recorded in the past half century. While nominal income expectations remained at modest levels, consumers more frequently expected gains in their inflation-adjusted incomes in early February than at any other time in more than fifteen years. The data indicate that personal consumption expenditures will remain the strongest sector in the national economy in 2019--up by 2.7% compared with a GDP gain of 2.2%. The data suggest that the Fed will find it even harder to justify another rate hike given the record low inflation expectations; the data will also add to the debate about the evolving relationship between unemployment and inflation as consumers now anticipate lower inflation and higher unemployment.


University of Michigan | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
2/15/2019 3:07:47 PM


News

US Consumer Sentiment Lowest Since Trump's Election
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US declined to 91.2 in January of 2019 from 98.3 in December, but above a preliminary estimate of 90.7 and market expectations of 90.8. It was the weakest sentiment since President Trump was elected. The end of the shutdown caused only a modest boost in the Sentiment Index
Published on 2019-02-01

US Consumer Sentiment Lowest since Trump was Elected
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 90.7 in January of 2019 from 98.3 in December, well below market expectations of 97. It is the lowest reading since October of 2016. The decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014.
Published on 2019-01-18

US Consumer Sentiment Revised Higher
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 98.3 in December of 2018 from a preliminary of 97.5 and 97.5 in November, final estimates showed. The Sentiment Index averaged 98.4 in 2018, the best year since 107.6 in 2000.
Published on 2018-12-21

US Consumer Sentiment Above Forecasts
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was steady at 97.5 in December of 2018, the same as in the previous month and above market expectations of 97, preliminary estimates showed. In the last 2 years, consumer sentiment has been above 90, a pattern not seen since 1997 to 2000.
Published on 2018-12-07



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 95.50 91.20 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM -1.20 0.10 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.30 4.10 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -1.80 0.00 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 12953.29 12842.02 12953.29 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 15742.81 15700.50 15742.81 351.90 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.80 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.50 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 6.00 6.20 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 16.55 22.41 118.08 -113.42 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9579.18 9493.05 9579.18 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.35 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 50.30 52.30 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 4.60 5.70 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3959.00 3812.00 15875.00 3055.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.59 0.62 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.60 77.30 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Consumer Sentiment - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
95.50 91.20 111.40 51.70 1952 - 2019 Index Points Monthly
Volume, NSA, 1966=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 33.10 Jan/19
Australia 103.80 Feb/19
Brazil 114.30 Dec/18
Canada 54.17 Jan/19
China 123.00 Dec/18
Euro Area -7.90 Jan/19
France 91.00 Jan/19
Germany 10.80 Feb/19
India 96.70 Dec/18
Indonesia 125.50 Jan/19
Italy 114.00 Jan/19
Japan 41.90 Jan/19
Mexico 111.99 Jan/19
Netherlands 1.00 Jan/19
Russia -17.00 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 106.00 Sep/18
South Africa 7.00 Dec/18
South Korea 97.50 Jan/19
Spain 93.80 Jan/19
Switzerland -4.00 Mar/19
Turkey 58.20 Jan/19
United Kingdom -14.00 Jan/19
United States 95.50 Feb/19


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