The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 92.1 in August 2019 from 98.4 in the previous month and well below market consensus of 97.2, a preliminary estimate showed. That was the lowest reading since January, as monetary and trade policies have heightened consumer uncertainty about their future financial prospects. Consumer Confidence in the United States averaged 86.58 Index Points from 1952 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 111.40 Index Points in January of 2000 and a record low of 51.70 Index Points in May of 1980.

Consumer Confidence in the United States is expected to be 94.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in the United States to stand at 88.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Sentiment is projected to trend around 85.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Consumer Sentiment
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-08-16 02:00 PM Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel Aug 2.7% 2.6% 2.5%
2019-08-16 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel Aug 82.3 90.5 89 88.5
2019-08-16 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Aug 92.1 98.4 97.2 96.9
2019-08-16 02:00 PM Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel Aug 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-08-30 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Aug 98.4 92.1 92.1
2019-09-13 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Sep 94
2019-09-27 02:00 PM Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final Sep 94



US Consumer Sentiment Drops to 7-Month Low

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US fell to 92.1 in August 2019 from 98.4 in the previous month and well below market consensus of 97.2, a preliminary estimate showed. That was the lowest reading since January.

The consumer expectations sub-index declined to 82.3 in August from the previous month's 90.5; while the gauge for current economic conditions decreased to 107.4 from 110.7.

Inflation expectations for the year ahead picked up to 2.7 percent in August from 2.6 percent in July; and the 5-year outlook advanced to 2.6 percent from 2.5 percent.

"Consumer sentiment declined in early August to its lowest level since the start of the year. The early August losses spanned all Index components. Although the Expectations Index recorded more than twice the decline in August as the Current Conditions Index (-8.2 versus -3.3), the Current Conditions Index fell to its lowest level since late 2016. Monetary and trade policies have heightened consumer uncertainty—but not pessimism—about their future financial prospects. Consumers strongly reacted to the proposed September increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, spontaneously cited by 33% of all consumers in early August, barely below the recent peak of 37%. Although the announced delay until Christmas postpones its negative impact on consumer prices, it still raises concerns about future price increases. The main takeaway for consumers from the first cut in interest rates in a decade was to increase apprehensions about a possible recession. Consumers concluded, following the Fed’s lead, that they may need to reduce spending in anticipation of a potential recession. Falling interest rates have long been associated with the start of recessions—see the featured chart. Perhaps the most important remaining pillar of strength for consumer spending is favorable job and income prospects, although the August survey indicated some concerns about the future pace of income and job gains. It is likely that consumers will reduce their pace of spending while keeping the economy out of recession at least through mid 2020." Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, said.


University of Michigan | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
8/16/2019 2:06:30 PM



United States Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 92.10 98.40 111.40 51.70 Index Points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.70 0.30 6.70 -3.90 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.40 3.30 11.20 -11.50 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 1.00 0.30 2.60 -4.00 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 13241.08 13103.32 13241.08 1403.69 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 16454.47 16384.73 16454.47 351.54 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.30 0.50 2.80 -2.10 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.40 4.60 -4.70 percent [+]
Personal Savings 8.10 8.00 17.30 2.20 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 14.60 17.79 116.79 -111.95 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9828.15 9801.37 9828.15 39.04 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.50 5.50 20.50 2.00 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 55.10 56.60 62.90 35.80 [+]
Redbook Index 4.90 4.40 9.30 -5.80 percent [+]
Chain Store Sales 3201.00 3588.00 15875.00 2632.00 USD Million [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.72 0.72 1.07 0.24 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To GDP 76.30 76.60 98.60 23.80 percent of GDP [+]
Consumer Confidence Current Conditions 113.20 112.50 121.10 57.50 [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 80.20 83.90 108.60 44.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 2.70 2.60 10.40 0.40 [+]


United States Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Consumer Sentiment - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
92.10 98.40 111.40 51.70 1952 - 2019 Index Points Monthly
Volume, NSA, 1966=100




Country Last Previous
Argentina 41.90 Aug/19
Australia 100.00 Aug/19
Brazil 47.00 Jun/19
Canada 55.60 Aug/19
China 125.90 Jun/19
Euro Area -7.10 Aug/19
France 102.00 Jul/19
Germany 9.70 Aug/19
India 95.70 Sep/19
Indonesia 124.80 Jul/19
Italy 113.40 Jul/19
Japan 37.80 Jul/19
Mexico 104.30 Jul/19
Netherlands 0.00 Aug/19
Russia -15.00 Jun/19
Saudi Arabia 114.00 Jun/19
South Africa 5.00 Jun/19
South Korea 95.90 Jul/19
Spain 97.00 Jul/19
Switzerland -8.00 Sep/19
Turkey 58.30 Aug/19
United Kingdom -11.00 Jul/19
United States 92.10 Aug/19


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