The yield on Britain’s 10-year Gilt extended its decline to below 2.2%, the lowest in one month, as aggravated recession concerns pressured risk sentiment and led investors to seek safety in government debt. Domestic manufacturing PMI figures were revised lower for June, with new order levels shrinking for the first time in 17 months to reflect the downturn in demand. At the same time, the first contraction in UK business investment in one year also added to signs of an economic slowdown. The British economy contracted 0.3% in April and 0.1% in March, while inflation soared to a fresh 40-year high of 9.1% in May. On the monetary policy front, the BoE has raised rates five times since December when it became the first major central bank to increase rates after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Historically, the United Kingdom Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 16.09 in November of 1981. United Kingdom Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on July of 2022.
The United Kingdom Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 2.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2.93 in 12 months time.