The Manufacturing Activity Index in the US fifth district including the District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and most of West Virginia edged down to 14 in November of 2018 from 15 in October, below market expectations of 16. Slower increases were reported for new orders (17 from 20), capital expenditures (17 from 21), inventories of raw materials (5 from 14), number of employees (11 from 19) and average workweek (11 from 16). On the other hand, shipments rose faster (12 from 7), wages increased more (34 from 28) and inflationary pressures eased for both prices paid (4.7 from 5.68) and received (2.13 from 2.84). Also, firms were optimistic, expecting growth to continue in the next six months. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 2.77 Index Points from 1993 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 29 Index Points in September of 2018 and a record low of -44 Index Points in February of 2009.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be 5.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 7.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 3.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.