United States Inflation Rate

The annual inflation rate in the US slowed for a fourth consecutive month to 2.9% in July 2024, the lowest since March 2021, compared to 3% in June and below forecasts of 3%. Inflation eased for shelter (5.1% vs 5.2%), transportation (8.8% vs 9.4%) and apparel (0.2 vs 0.8%). Also, prices continued to decline for new vehicles (-1% vs -0.9%) and used cars and trucks (-10.9% vs -10.1%) and food inflation steadied at 2.2%. On the other hand, energy costs rose slightly more (1.1% vs 1%), mainly due to gasoline (-2.2% vs -2.5%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in June, and matching forecasts, as shelter cost rose 0.4%, accounting for nearly 90% of the monthly increase. Meanwhile, annual core inflation also slowed for a fourth consecutive month to 3.2%, the lowest reading since April 2021, compared to 3.3% in June, and in line with expectations. The monthly core inflation rate also edged up to 0.2% from 0.1% as expected.

The annual inflation rate in the US likely steadied at 3% in July 2024, the same as in June, and holding at one-year lows. Compared to the previous month, the CPI is projected to increase 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in June, mainly due to an uptick in gasoline prices while prices for used cars probably declined and housing rents likely slowed. Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to ease for a fourth consecutive month to 3.2%, which would be the lowest reading since April 2021, compared to 3.3% in June. The monthly core inflation rate is also anticipated to accelerate to 0.2% from 0.1%.

The annual inflation rate in the US fell for a third straight month to 3% in June 2024, the lowest since June 2023, compared to 3.3% in May and below forecasts of 3.1%. Energy costs rose at a slower pace (1% vs 3.7%), due to gasoline (-2.5% vs 2.2%) and fuel oil (0.8% vs 3.6%) while utility gas service (3.7% vs 0.2%) accelerated. Inflation also eased for shelter (5.2% vs 5.4%) and transportation (9.4% vs 10.5%) and steadied for apparel (0.8%). In addition, prices continued to decline for new vehicles (-0.9% vs -0.8%) and used cars and trucks (-10.1% vs -9.3%). On the other hand, food inflation edged up (2.2% vs 2.1%). Compared to May, the CPI unexpectedly declined 0.1%, the first fall since May 2020, following a flat reading and compared to expectations of a 0.1% rise. Meanwhile, annual core inflation also slowed to 3.3%, a fresh low since April 2021, from 3.4% in May and forecasts it would remain steady. The monthly rate edged down to 0.1% from 0.2%, below expectations of 0.2%.