Annual inflation rate in the United States fell to 1.9 percent in December of 2018 from 2.2 percent in November, matching market expectations. It is the lowest inflation rate since August of 2017, mainly due to a decline in gasoline cost. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged down 0.1 percent after a flat reading in the previous month and also in line with forecasts. It is the first monthly decrease in consumer prices in nine months, due to a 7.5 percent slump in gasoline prices. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.27 percent from 1914 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 2.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United States to stand at 2.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-11 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7%
2018-11-14 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%
2018-12-12 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4%
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 1.9%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2%



US Inflation Rate Lowest in 16 Months

Annual inflation rate in the United States fell to 1.9 percent in December of 2018 from 2.2 percent in November, matching market expectations. It is the lowest inflation rate since August of 2017, mainly due to a decline in gasoline cost. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged down 0.1 percent after a flat reading in the previous month and also in line with forecasts. It is the first monthly decrease in consumer prices in nine months, due to a 7.5 percent slump in gasoline prices.

Year-on-year, prices fell for gasoline (-2.1 pecent compared to +5 percent in November); new vehicles (-0.3 percent compared to +0.3 percent); medical care commodities (-0.5 percent compared to +0.6 percent); and apparel (-0.1 percent compared to -0.4 percent). Also, cost slowed for fuel oil (1.9 percent compared to 16.1 percent in November); transportation services (2.8 percent compared to 3.3 percent); and used cars and trucks (1.4 percent compared to 2.3 percent). On the other hand, inflation went up for electricity (1.1 percent compared to 0.6 percent); food (1.6 percent compared to 1.4 percent); medical care services (2.6 percent compared to 2.4 percent); and used cars and trucks (1.4 percent compared to 0.4 percent) but was steady for shelter (3.2 percent). Also, cost rebounded for utility piped gas service (2.3 percent compared to -2.1 percent). 

Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased 2.2 percent over a year earlier, the same as in November and matching forecasts.

On a monthly basis, the gasoline index fell 7.5 percent in December. This decline more than offset increases in several indexes including shelter, food, and other energy components. The energy index went down 3.5 percent, as the gasoline and fuel oil indexes decreased, but the indexes for natural gas and for electricity increased. The food index went up 0.4 percent in December.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in December, the same increase as in October and November and in line with forecasts. Along with the index for shelter, the indexes for recreation, medical care, and household furnishings and operations all increased in December, while the indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance all declined. 


BLS | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
1/11/2019 2:08:33 PM


News

US Inflation Rate Lowest in 9 Months
Annual inflation rate in the US fell to 2.2 percent in November of 2018 from 2.5 percent in October, matching market expectations. It is the lowest reading since February. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged after rising 0.3 percent in October and also in line with forecasts. The gasoline index declined 4.2 percent, offsetting increases in an array of indexes including shelter and used cars and trucks.
Published on 2018-12-12

US Inflation Rate Rises to 2.5%, Matches Forecasts
Annual inflation rate in the US increased to 2.5 percent in October of 2018 from 2.3 percent in September. Figures match market expectations, mainly due to prices of fuel oil and gasoline. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.3 percent, higher than 0.1 percent in September and matching forecasts. It is the highest monthly gain in nine months, mainly due to gasoline.
Published on 2018-11-14

US Inflation Rate Lowest in 7 Months
Annual inflation in the US fell to 2.3 percent in September of 2018 from 2.7 percent in August and below market expectations of 2.4 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since February, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in gas prices and smaller increases in fuel and shelter costs.
Published on 2018-10-11

US Inflation Rate Slows to 2.7%
Annual inflation rate in the US fell to 2.7 percent in August of 2018 from 2.9 percent in July and below market expectations of 2.8 percent. It is the lowest reading in four months amid a slowdown in cost of fuel, gasoline and shelter.
Published on 2018-09-13



United States Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.20 23.70 -15.80 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.00 1.80 -1.80 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 252.73 252.88 252.88 23.51 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 260.03 259.48 260.03 28.50 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2.20 13.60 0.00 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.68 110.27 110.68 12.85 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.10 117.30 117.30 100.20 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.50 2.50 19.57 -6.86 percent [+]
Export Prices 126.10 126.90 135.30 82.40 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 124.70 125.90 147.50 75.00 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.60 1.40 36.70 -34.30 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 261.36 260.47 261.36 30.50 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 204.54 209.92 223.54 22.30 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 110.67 110.50 110.67 16.73 Index Points [+]
Core Producer Prices 116.40 116.50 116.50 99.90 Index Points [+]
Pce Price Index 108.87 108.81 108.87 16.07 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 3.00 2.97 3.40 2.42 percent [+]


United States Inflation Rate

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent). This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.90 2.20 23.70 -15.80 1914 - 2018 percent Monthly
1982-1984=100, NSA




Country Last Previous
Argentina 47.10 Dec/18
Australia 1.90 Sep/18
Brazil 3.75 Dec/18
Canada 2.00 Dec/18
China 1.90 Dec/18
Euro Area 1.60 Dec/18
France 1.60 Dec/18
Germany 1.70 Dec/18
India 2.19 Dec/18
Indonesia 3.13 Dec/18
Italy 1.10 Dec/18
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Mexico 4.83 Dec/18
Netherlands 2.00 Dec/18
Russia 4.30 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 2.80 Nov/18
Singapore 0.30 Nov/18
South Africa 5.20 Nov/18
South Korea 1.30 Dec/18
Spain 1.20 Dec/18
Switzerland 0.70 Dec/18
Turkey 20.30 Dec/18
United Kingdom 2.10 Dec/18
United States 1.90 Dec/18


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