Annual inflation rate in the United States slowed for the third straight month to 1.6 percent in January of 2019 from 1.9 percent in December. It is the lowest rate since June of 2017, compared to market expectations of 1.5 percent, mainly due to a sharp fall in energy prices, namely gasoline. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, the same as in both December and November. The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.27 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United States to stand at 2.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-14 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%
2018-12-12 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4%
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.8%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9%



US Inflation Rate Drops to 1.6%

Annual inflation rate in the United States slowed for the third straight month to 1.6 percent in January of 2019 from 1.9 percent in December. It is the lowest rate since June of 2017, compared to market expectations of 1.5 percent, mainly due to a sharp fall in energy prices, namely gasoline.

Year-on-year, prices fell for gasoline (-10.1 pecent compared to -2.1 percent in December); fuel oil (-8.1 percent compared to 1.9 percent); and medical care commodities (-0.3 percent compared to -0.5 percent); and were unchanged for new vehicles (0 percent compared to -0.3 percent). Also, inflation slowed for transportation services (2 percent compared to 2.8 percent); medical care services (2.4 percent compared to 2.6 percent); and was flat for food (1.6 percent); and shelter (3.2 percent). On the other hand, prices rebounded for apparel (0.1 percent compared to -0.1 percent) and went up faster for used cars and trucks (1.6 percent compared to 1.4 percent); electricity (1.3 percent compared to 1.1 percent); and utility piped gas service (4.3 percent compared to 2.3 percent). 

Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased 2.2 percent over a year earlier, the same as in December and slightly above forecasts of 2.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat for the third straight month, compared to forecasts of a 0.1 percent rise. The energy index declined for the third consecutive month, offsetting increases in the indexes for all items less food and energy and for food. All the major energy component indexes declined in January, with the gasoline index falling 5.5 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent, with the index for food at home rising 0.1 percent and the food away from home index increasing 0.3 percent. 

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in January for the fourth consecutive month, matching forecasts. The indexes for shelter, apparel, medical care, recreation, and household furnishings and operations were among the indexes that rose in January, while the indexes for airline fares and for motor vehicle insurance declined.   


BLS | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
2/13/2019 1:54:12 PM



United States Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.90 23.70 -15.80 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.00 1.80 -1.80 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 252.67 252.72 252.79 23.51 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 260.70 260.08 260.70 28.50 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.20 2.20 13.60 0.00 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 110.68 110.27 110.68 12.85 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.10 117.20 117.30 100.20 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.00 2.50 19.57 -6.86 percent [+]
Export Prices 125.40 126.10 135.30 82.40 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 124.30 124.90 147.50 75.00 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.60 1.60 36.70 -34.30 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 262.28 261.36 262.28 30.50 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 202.57 204.54 223.54 22.30 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 110.67 110.50 110.67 16.73 Index Points [+]
Core Producer Prices 116.80 116.50 116.80 99.90 Index Points [+]
Pce Price Index 108.87 108.81 108.87 16.07 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.97 3.00 3.40 2.42 percent [+]


United States Inflation Rate

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent). This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.60 1.90 23.70 -15.80 1914 - 2019 percent Monthly
1982-1984=100, NSA




Country Last Previous
Argentina 48.90 Jan/19
Australia 1.80 Dec/18
Brazil 3.78 Jan/19
Canada 2.00 Dec/18
China 1.70 Jan/19
Euro Area 1.40 Jan/19
France 1.20 Jan/19
Germany 1.40 Jan/19
India 2.05 Jan/19
Indonesia 2.82 Jan/19
Italy 0.90 Jan/19
Japan 0.30 Dec/18
Mexico 4.37 Jan/19
Netherlands 2.20 Jan/19
Russia 5.00 Jan/19
Saudi Arabia 2.20 Dec/18
Singapore 0.50 Dec/18
South Africa 4.50 Dec/18
South Korea 0.80 Jan/19
Spain 1.00 Jan/19
Switzerland 0.60 Jan/19
Turkey 20.35 Jan/19
United Kingdom 1.80 Jan/19
United States 1.60 Jan/19


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