The US annual inflation rate fell to 1.8 percent in May 2019 from a five-month high in the previous month and just below forecasts of 1.9 percent, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, edged down to 2.0 percent, also below market consensus of 2.1 percent. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.26 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United States to stand at 1.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 2% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9%
2019-06-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.8% 2% 1.9% 1.9%
2019-07-11 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.8% 1.7%
2019-08-13 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.8%
2019-09-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9%



US Inflation Rate Falls More Than Expected

The US annual inflation rate fell to 1.8 percent in May 2019 from a five-month high in the previous month and just below forecasts of 1.9 percent, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year.

Energy prices dropped 0.5 percent, following a 1.7 percent gain in the previous month. Within energy commodities, gasoline cost declined 0.2 percent (vs 3.1 percent in April) while fuel oil went down 0.8 percent (vs -0.9 percent in April). Within energy services, electricity prices retreated 0.2 percent, after rising 0.6 percent in the previous period, while utility (piped) gas service cost dropped 2.6 percent (vs -1.9 percent in April). Declines were also seen in cost of apparel (-3.1 percent vs -3.0 percent) and medical care commodities (-0.7 percent vs 0.2 percent).

Food inflation accelerated to 2.0 percent in May from 1.8 percent in April, due in particular to food at home (1.2 percent vs 0.7 percent) while costs of food away from home rose at softer pace (2.9 percent vs 3.1 percent). Meanwhile, inflation was unchanged for transportation services (at 1.1 percent) and slowed for shelter (3.3 percent vs 3.4 percent); new vehicles (0.9 percent vs 1.2 percent); and used cars and trucks (0.3 percent vs 0.8 percent).

The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, edged down to 2.0 percent in May from 2.1 percent in April, also below market consensus.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices gained 0.1 percent in May, easing from a 0.3 percent advance in April. The food index rose 0.3 percent while the energy index fell 0.6 percent. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent for the fourth consecutive month. The indexes for shelter, medical care, airline fares, education, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles all rose in May. The indexes for used cars and trucks, recreation, and motor vehicle insurance were among those that declined over the month.  


BLS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
6/12/2019 1:04:19 PM



United States Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.80 2.00 23.70 -15.80 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.30 1.80 -1.80 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 255.16 254.96 255.16 23.51 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 262.03 261.74 262.03 28.50 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.00 2.10 13.60 0.00 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.33 111.19 111.33 12.85 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 118.20 118.10 118.20 100.20 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.80 2.20 19.57 -6.86 percent [+]
Export Prices 126.90 127.20 135.30 82.40 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 126.30 126.70 147.50 75.00 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.00 1.80 36.70 -34.30 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 265.14 264.45 265.14 30.50 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 215.39 214.14 223.54 22.30 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 111.34 111.06 111.34 16.73 Index Points [+]
Core Producer Prices 117.50 117.30 117.50 99.90 Index Points [+]
Pce Price Index 109.50 109.16 109.50 16.07 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.45 2.60 3.40 2.42 percent [+]


United States Inflation Rate

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent). This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.80 2.00 23.70 -15.80 1914 - 2019 percent Monthly
1982-1984=100, NSA




Country Last Previous
Argentina 57.30 May/19
Australia 1.30 Mar/19
Brazil 4.66 May/19
Canada 2.40 May/19
China 2.70 May/19
Euro Area 1.20 May/19
France 0.90 May/19
Germany 1.40 May/19
India 3.05 May/19
Indonesia 3.32 May/19
Italy 0.80 May/19
Japan 0.70 May/19
Mexico 4.28 May/19
Netherlands 2.40 May/19
Russia 5.10 May/19
Saudi Arabia -1.50 May/19
Singapore 0.90 May/19
South Africa 4.50 May/19
South Korea 0.70 May/19
Spain 0.40 Jun/19
Switzerland 0.60 May/19
Turkey 18.71 May/19
United Kingdom 2.00 May/19
United States 1.80 May/19


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