The US annual inflation rate rose to 1.9 percent in March 2019 from a two-and-a-half-year low of 1.5 percent in the previous month, slightly above market consensus of 1.8 percent. Food prices rose at faster pace while energy deflation eased. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, edged down to 2 percent from 2.1 percent in February, just below forecasts of 2.1 percent. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.26 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 1.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United States to stand at 1.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Inflation Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-01-11 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 2.2%
2019-02-13 01:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.9%
2019-03-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%
2019-04-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7%
2019-05-10 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.9% 1.7%
2019-06-12 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.6%
2019-07-11 12:30 PM Inflation Rate YoY 1.8%



US Inflation Rate Rises Above Forecasts in March

The US annual inflation rate rose to 1.9 percent in March 2019 from a two-and-a-half-year low of 1.5 percent in the previous month, slightly above market consensus of 1.8 percent.

Main upward pressure came from: food (2.1 percent vs 2 percent in February), in particular food at home (1.4 percent vs 1.2 percent) and food away from home (3 percent vs 2.9 percent); shelter (3.4 percent, the same as in February); new vehicles (0.7 percent vs 0.3 percent); used cars and trucks (0.4 percent vs 1.1 percent); transportation services (1 percent vs 1.1 percent); and medical care services (2.3 percent vs 2.4 percent). In addition, energy prices dropped at a much slower 0.4 percent, compared to a 5 percent plunge in the previous month. Within energy commodities, prices of gasoline declined 0.7 percent (vs -9.1 percent in February) and those of fuel oil went down 0.4 percent (vs -2.4 percent in February). Within energy services, utility (piped) gas service cost dropped 1.4 percent (vs -2.6 percent in February) and electricity prices rose 0.3 percent, after being unchanged in the previous period. Additional falls were seen in prices of apparel (-2.2 percent vs -0.8 percent) and medical care commodities (-0.6 percent vs -1.1 percent).

The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, edged down to 2 percent in March from 2.1 percent in February, staying just below forecasts of 2.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in March, the biggest advance since January 2018, following a 0.2 percent gain in February and beating market expectations of 0.3 percent. The energy index increased 3.5 percent in March, accounting for about 60 percent of the increase, boosted by the gasoline and electricity indexes. The food index also increased in March, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both continuing to rise. The indexes for shelter, medical care, new vehicles, recreation, education, and tobacco were among those that increased in March, while the indexes for apparel, used cars and trucks, and airline fares all declined.


BLS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
4/10/2019 12:53:18 PM



United States Prices Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.50 23.70 -15.80 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.20 1.80 -1.80 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 254.15 252.78 254.15 23.51 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 261.37 261.11 261.37 28.50 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 2.00 2.10 13.60 0.00 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 111.19 110.68 111.19 12.85 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 117.90 117.20 117.90 100.20 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.20 1.90 19.57 -6.86 percent [+]
Export Prices 127.10 126.20 135.30 82.40 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 126.50 125.80 147.50 75.00 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.10 2.00 36.70 -34.30 percent [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 263.89 263.06 263.89 30.50 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 208.84 204.24 223.54 22.30 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 111.00 110.93 111.00 16.73 Index Points [+]
Core Producer Prices 117.20 116.90 117.20 99.90 Index Points [+]
Pce Price Index 108.87 108.94 108.94 16.07 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.82 2.79 3.40 2.42 percent [+]


United States Inflation Rate

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent). This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
1.90 1.50 23.70 -15.80 1914 - 2019 percent Monthly
1982-1984=100, NSA




Country Last Previous
Argentina 54.70 Mar/19
Australia 1.80 Dec/18
Brazil 4.58 Mar/19
Canada 1.90 Mar/19
China 2.30 Mar/19
Euro Area 1.40 Mar/19
France 1.10 Mar/19
Germany 1.30 Mar/19
India 2.86 Mar/19
Indonesia 2.48 Mar/19
Italy 1.00 Mar/19
Japan 0.50 Mar/19
Mexico 4.00 Mar/19
Netherlands 2.80 Mar/19
Russia 5.30 Mar/19
Saudi Arabia -2.20 Feb/19
Singapore 0.50 Feb/19
South Africa 4.50 Mar/19
South Korea 0.40 Mar/19
Spain 1.30 Mar/19
Switzerland 0.70 Mar/19
Turkey 19.71 Mar/19
United Kingdom 1.90 Mar/19
United States 1.90 Mar/19


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