United States Inflation Rate

Annual inflation rate in the US fell to 2.2 percent in November of 2018 from 2.5 percent in October, matching market expectations. It is the lowest reading since February. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged after rising 0.3 percent in October and also in line with forecasts. The gasoline index declined 4.2 percent, offsetting increases in an array of indexes including shelter and used cars and trucks. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.27 percent from 1914 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 2.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Inflation Rate in the United States to stand at 2.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Calendar	GMT		Actual	Previous	Consensus	TEForecast
2018-09-13	12:30 PM	Inflation Rate YoY	2.7%	2.9%	2.8%	2.8%
2018-10-11	12:30 PM	Inflation Rate YoY	2.3%	2.7%	2.4%	2.7%
2018-11-14	01:30 PM	Inflation Rate YoY	2.5%	2.3%	2.5%	2.4%
2018-12-12	01:30 PM	Inflation Rate YoY	2.2%	2.5%	2.2%	2.4%
2019-01-11	01:30 PM	Inflation Rate YoY				2.40%
2019-02-13	01:30 PM	Inflation Rate YoY
2019-03-12	12:30 PM	Inflation Rate YoY

US Inflation Rate Lowest in 9 Months

Annual inflation rate in the US fell to 2.2 percent in November of 2018 from 2.5 percent in October, matching market expectations. It is the lowest reading since February. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged after rising 0.3 percent in October and also in line with forecasts. The gasoline index declined 4.2 percent, offsetting increases in an array of indexes including shelter and used cars and trucks.

Year-on-year, prices slowed for fuel oil (16.1 percent compared to 26.2 percent in October); gasoline (5 percent compared to 16.1 percent); electricity (0.6 percent compared to 0.7 percent); transportation services (3.3 percent compared to 3.8 percent); new vehicles (0.3 percent compared to 0.5 percent); medical care commodities (0.6 percent compared to 0.7 percent). Also, cost fell for apparel (-0.4 percent, the same as in October); and utility piped gas service (-2.1 percent, the same as in October). On the other hand, inflation was steady for shelter (3.2 percent) and went up food (1.4 percent compared to 1.2 percent); medical care services (2.4 percent compared to 1.9 percent); and used cars and trucks (2.3 percent compared to 0.4 percent).

Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased 2.2 percent over a year earlier, higher than 2.1 percent in October and in line with forecasts.

On a monthly basis, the gasoline index declined 4.2 percent in November, offsetting increases in an array of indexes including shelter and used cars and trucks. Other major energy component indexes were mixed, with the index for fuel oil falling but the indexes for electricity and natural gas rising. The food index rose in November, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increasing.

The all items less food and energy index increased 0.2 percent in November, the same as in October and also in line with forecasts. Along with the indexes for shelter and used cars and trucks, the indexes for medical care, recreation, and water and sewer and trash collection also increased. The indexes for wireless telephone services, airline fares, and motor vehicle insurance declined in November.

BLS | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
12/12/2018 1:55:05 PM

Recent Releases

US Inflation Rate Rises to 2.5%, Matches Forecasts
Annual inflation rate in the US increased to 2.5 percent in October of 2018 from 2.3 percent in September. Figures match market expectations, mainly due to prices of fuel oil and gasoline. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.3 percent, higher than 0.1 percent in September and matching forecasts. It is the highest monthly gain in nine months, mainly due to gasoline.
Published on 2018-11-14

US Inflation Rate Lowest in 7 Months
Annual inflation in the US fell to 2.3 percent in September of 2018 from 2.7 percent in August and below market expectations of 2.4 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since February, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in gas prices and smaller increases in fuel and shelter costs.
Published on 2018-10-11

US Inflation Rate Slows to 2.7%
Annual inflation rate in the US fell to 2.7 percent in August of 2018 from 2.9 percent in July and below market expectations of 2.8 percent. It is the lowest reading in four months amid a slowdown in cost of fuel, gasoline and shelter.
Published on 2018-09-13

US Inflation Rate Unchanged at Over 6-Year High
US annual inflation rate stood at 2.9 percent in July 2018, unchanged from the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 3 percent. Still, inflation remained at its highest level since February 2012.
Published on 2018-08-10

United States Prices	Last	Previous	Highest	Lowest	Unit
Inflation Rate	2.20	2.50	23.70	-15.80	percent	[+]
Inflation Rate Mom	0.00	0.30	1.80	-1.80	percent	[+]
Consumer Price Index CPI	252.88	252.83	252.88	23.51	Index Points	[+]
Core Consumer Prices	259.48	258.94	259.48	28.50	Index Points	[+]
Core Inflation Rate	2.20	2.10	13.60	0.00	percent	[+]
GDP Deflator	110.65	110.27	110.65	12.85	Index Points	[+]
Producer Prices	117.30	117.20	117.30	100.20	Index Points	[+]
Producer Prices Change	2.50	2.90	19.57	-6.86	percent	[+]
Export Prices	126.80	127.90	135.30	82.40	Index Points	[+]
Import Prices	126.20	128.20	147.50	75.00	Index Points	[+]
Food Inflation	1.40	1.20	36.70	-34.30	percent	[+]
CPI Housing Utilities	260.47	260.27	260.47	30.50	Index Points	[+]
CPI Transportation	209.92	213.48	223.54	22.30	Index Points	[+]
Core Pce Price Index	110.46	110.34	110.46	16.73	Index Points	[+]
Core Producer Prices	116.50	116.10	116.50	99.90	Index Points	[+]
Pce Price Index	108.77	108.58	108.77	16.07	Index Points	[+]
Inflation Expectations	2.97	3.00	3.40	2.42	percent	[+]

In the United States, unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is based on the prices of a market basket of: food (14 percent of total weight), energy (9.3 percent), commodities less food and energy commodities (19.4 percent) and services less energy services (57.3 percent). The last category is divided by: shelter (32.1 percent), medical care services (5.8 percent) and transportation services (5.5 percent). This page provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Inflation Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

	Actual	Previous	Highest	Lowest	Dates	Unit	Frequency
	2.20	2.50	23.70	-15.80	1914 - 2018	percent	Monthly	1982-1984=100, NSA

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Country	Last		Previous	Range
Argentina	48.00	Nov/18	45.5	20263 : -7	%
Australia	1.90	Sep/18	2.1	23.9 : -1.3	%
Brazil	4.05	Nov/18	4.56	6821 : 1.65	%
Canada	2.40	Oct/18	2.2	21.6 : -17.8	%
China	2.20	Nov/18	2.5	28.4 : -2.2	%
Euro Area	1.90	Nov/18	2.2	5 : -0.7	%
France	1.90	Nov/18	2.2	18.8 : -0.7	%
Germany	2.30	Nov/18	2.5	11.54 : -7.62	%
India	2.33	Nov/18	3.38	12.17 : 1.54	%
Indonesia	3.23	Nov/18	3.16	82.4 : -1.17	%
Italy	1.60	Nov/18	1.6	25.64 : -0.6	%
Japan	1.40	Oct/18	1.2	24.9 : -2.5	%
Mexico	4.72	Nov/18	4.9	180 : 2.13	%
Netherlands	2.00	Nov/18	2.1	11.19 : -1.3	%
Russia	3.80	Nov/18	3.5	2333 : 2.2	%
Saudi Arabia	2.40	Oct/18	2.1	11.1 : -2	%
Singapore	0.70	Oct/18	0.7	34 : -3.1	%
South Africa	5.20	Nov/18	5.1	20.7 : 0.2	%
South Korea	2.00	Nov/18	2	32.5 : 0.2	%
Spain	1.70	Nov/18	2.3	28.43 : -1.37	%
Switzerland	0.90	Nov/18	1.1	11.92 : -1.4	%
Turkey	21.62	Nov/18	25.24	139 : -4.01	%
United Kingdom	2.30	Nov/18	2.4	8.5 : -0.1	%
United States	2.20	Nov/18	2.5	23.7 : -15.8	%