The US unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent in February 2019 from 4 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 3.9 percent. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 300,000 to 6.2 million. Unemployment Rate in the United States averaged 5.76 percent from 1948 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 10.80 percent in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50 percent in May of 1953.

Unemployment Rate in the United States is expected to be 3.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in the United States to stand at 3.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Unemployment Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-07 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
2019-01-04 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.97%
2019-02-01 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate 4% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
2019-03-08 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate 3.8% 4% 3.9% 3.9%
2019-04-05 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.80%
2019-05-03 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate 4.00%
2019-06-07 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate 4.00%



US Jobless Rate Falls More than Expected

The US unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent in February 2019 from 4 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 3.9 percent. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 300,000 to 6.2 million.

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs (including people on temporary layoff) declined by 225,000. This decline reflects, in part, the return of federal workers who were furloughed in January due to the partial government shutdown.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), and Hispanics (4.3 percent) decreased in February. The jobless rates for adult women (3.4 percent), teenagers (13.4 percent), Blacks (7.0 percent), and Asians (3.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.

In February, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.3 million and accounted for 20.4 percent of the unemployed.

The labor force participation rate held at 63.2 percent in February and has changed little over the year. The employment-population ratio, at 60.7 percent, was unchanged over the month but was up by 0.3 percentage point over the year.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 837,000 to 4.3 million in February. This decline follows a sharp increase in January that may have resulted from the partial federal government shutdown. (Persons employed part time for economic reasons would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.)

There were 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force, a decrease of 178,000 from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the last 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 428,000 discouraged workers in February, little changed from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.0 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in February had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.


BLS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
3/8/2019 1:48:21 PM



United States Labour Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Unemployment Rate 3.80 4.00 10.80 2.50 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 20.00 311.00 1118.00 -1959.00 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 25.00 308.00 1092.00 -811.00 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls -5.00 3.00 427.00 -260.00 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 4.00 21.00 572.00 -519.00 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 229.00 223.00 695.00 162.00 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 1776.00 1758.00 6635.00 988.00 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 183.00 300.00 360.00 -706.00 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 156949.00 156694.00 156949.00 57635.00 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 6235.00 6535.00 15352.00 1596.00 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.40 0.10 0.60 -0.20 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.50 34.60 33.70 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.20 63.20 67.30 58.10 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.78 0.77 4.40 0.08 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90 9.10 19.50 7.80 percent [+]
Labour Costs 109.78 109.25 109.78 17.00 Index Points [+]
Productivity 106.10 105.61 106.10 26.03 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 7484.00 6890.00 7484.00 2132.00 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 7581.00 7479.00 7626.00 2264.00 Thousand [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 76835.00 52988.00 248475.00 15100.00 Persons [+]
Wages 23.18 23.10 23.18 2.50 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.16 4.52 13.78 -5.88 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 21.89 21.86 21.91 1.27 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 0.25 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.70 0.80 1.60 0.20 percent [+]
Population 325.72 323.41 325.72 76.09 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66.00 66.00 66.00 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66.00 66.00 66.00 [+]
Employment Rate 60.70 60.70 64.70 55.00 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 130159.00 129837.00 130159.00 64640.00 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 26878.00 26752.00 28134.00 10086.00 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 2380.00 2270.00 2380.00 2160.00 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1660.00 1560.00 1660.00 1450.00 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4520.00 4330.00 4950.00 4330.00 USD/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1960.00 1760.00 2340.00 1760.00 USD/Month [+]


United States Unemployment Rate

In the United States, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Unemployment Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.80 4.00 10.80 2.50 1948 - 2019 percent Monthly




Country Last Previous
South Africa 27.10 Dec/18
Spain 14.45 Dec/18
Turkey 13.50 Dec/18
Brazil 12.00 Jan/19
Italy 10.50 Jan/19
Argentina 9.00 Sep/18
France 8.80 Dec/18
Euro Area 7.80 Jan/19
India 6.10 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 6.00 Sep/18
Canada 5.80 Feb/19
Indonesia 5.34 Sep/18
Australia 5.00 Jan/19
Russia 4.90 Jan/19
United Kingdom 4.00 Dec/18
China 3.80 Dec/18
United States 3.80 Feb/19
South Korea 3.70 Feb/19
Mexico 3.60 Jan/19
Netherlands 3.60 Jan/19
Germany 3.20 Jan/19
Switzerland 2.70 Feb/19
Japan 2.50 Jan/19
Singapore 2.20 Dec/18


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