The US unemployment rate rose to 4 percent in January 2019 from 3.9 percent in the previous month and slightly above market expectations of 3.9 percent. The number of unemployed increased by 241 thousand to 6.54 million while employment fell by 251 thousand to 156.69 million, following the 35-day partial government shutdown. Unemployment Rate in the United States averaged 5.76 percent from 1948 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 10.80 percent in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50 percent in May of 1953.

Unemployment Rate in the United States is expected to be 3.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in the United States to stand at 3.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Unemployment Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-11-02 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
2018-12-07 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
2019-01-04 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.97%
2019-02-01 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate 4% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9%
2019-03-08 01:30 PM Unemployment Rate 4% 3.80%
2019-04-05 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate 3.80%
2019-05-03 12:30 PM Unemployment Rate 4.00%



US Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Rises to 4%

The US unemployment rate rose to 4 percent in January 2019 from 3.9 percent in the previous month and slightly above market expectations of 3.9 percent. The number of unemployed increased by 241 thousand to 6.54 million while employment fell by 251 thousand to 156.69 million, following the 35-day partial government shutdown.

The impact of the partial federal government shutdown contributed to the uptick in both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff increased by 175,000. This figure includes furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Hispanics increased to 4.9 percent in January. The jobless rates for adult men (3.7 percent), adult
women (3.6 percent), teenagers (12.9 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (6.8 percent), and Asians (3.1 percent) showed little change over the month.

In January, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.3 million and accounted for 19.3 percent of the unemployed.

The labor force participation rate, at 63.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.7 percent, changed little over the month; both measures were up by 0.5 percentage point over the year.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by about one-half million to 5.1 million in January. Nearly all of this increase occurred in the private sector and may reflect the impact of the partial federal government shutdown. (Persons employed part time for economic reasons would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.)

In January, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 426,000 discouraged workers in January, little different than a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.2 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.


BLS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
2/1/2019 1:48:10 PM



United States Labour Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Unemployment Rate 4.00 3.90 10.80 2.50 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 304.00 222.00 1118.00 -1959.00 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 296.00 206.00 1092.00 -811.00 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 8.00 16.00 427.00 -260.00 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 13.00 20.00 572.00 -519.00 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 239.00 235.00 695.00 162.00 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 1773.00 1736.00 6635.00 988.00 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 213.00 263.00 384.00 -836.00 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 156694.00 156945.00 156945.00 57635.00 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 6535.00 6294.00 15352.00 1596.00 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.10 0.40 0.60 -0.20 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.50 34.60 33.70 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.20 63.10 67.30 58.10 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.80 0.77 4.40 0.08 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.10 8.70 19.50 7.80 percent [+]
Labour Costs 109.05 108.81 109.60 17.00 Index Points [+]
Productivity 105.69 105.10 105.69 26.03 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 6890.00 6540.00 7320.00 2132.00 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 7335.00 7166.00 7335.00 2196.00 Thousand [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 52988.00 43884.00 248475.00 15100.00 Persons [+]
Wages 23.12 23.05 23.12 2.50 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 4.20 4.49 13.78 -5.88 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 21.86 21.91 21.91 1.27 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 0.25 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.70 0.80 1.60 0.20 percent [+]
Population 325.72 323.41 325.72 76.09 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66.00 66.00 66.00 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66.00 66.00 66.00 [+]
Employment Rate 60.70 60.60 64.70 55.00 percent [+]
Full Time Employment 129837.00 129913.00 129913.00 64640.00 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 26752.00 26994.00 28134.00 10086.00 Thousand [+]
Living Wage Family 2380.00 2270.00 2380.00 2160.00 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1660.00 1560.00 1660.00 1450.00 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4520.00 4330.00 4950.00 4330.00 USD/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1960.00 1760.00 2340.00 1760.00 USD/Month [+]


United States Unemployment Rate

In the United States, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Unemployment Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
4.00 3.90 10.80 2.50 1948 - 2019 percent Monthly




Country Last Previous
South Africa 27.10 Dec/18
Spain 14.45 Dec/18
Turkey 12.30 Nov/18
Brazil 11.60 Dec/18
Italy 10.30 Dec/18
Argentina 9.00 Sep/18
France 8.80 Dec/18
Euro Area 7.90 Dec/18
India 6.10 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 6.00 Sep/18
Canada 5.80 Jan/19
Indonesia 5.34 Sep/18
Australia 5.00 Dec/18
Russia 4.80 Dec/18
South Korea 4.40 Jan/19
United Kingdom 4.00 Nov/18
United States 4.00 Jan/19
China 3.80 Dec/18
Netherlands 3.60 Dec/18
Mexico 3.40 Dec/18
Germany 3.30 Dec/18
Switzerland 2.80 Jan/19
Japan 2.40 Dec/18
Singapore 2.20 Dec/18


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