Shanghai steel futures fell to a near 1-month low below 4,800 yuan a tonne, tracking lower iron ore prices after top economic planning agency said it will probe malicious speculation. Also, the off-peak season has gradually arrived and consumption declined significantly while production remains robust. China’s crude steel output surged 13.9% from a year earlier in the January-May period despite constant pledges from the country to curb production based on carbon emissions, pollutant discharges and energy consumption. Considering May alone, production went up 6.6% on the year, easing from a 13.4% rise in April. The steel market has been under pressure due to China's efforts to limit soaring commodity prices after cost of steel rallied to an all-time high of 5,975 yuan per tonne on May 11th. Meantime, China started inspecting steel mills in mid-June to verify if outdated plants have been eliminated and if environmental and energy-consumption standards are being implemented.
Historically, Steel reached an all time high of 6198 in May of 2021. Steel - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on June of 2021.
Steel is expected to trade at 5166.29 Yuan/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 5764.51 in 12 months time.