Steel rebar futures were above CNY 3,550 per tonne, rebounding from the one-month low of CNY 3,472 touched on May 15th amid lower pessimism over ferrous metal demand in top producer China. The outlook for distressed Chinese property developers, which are major ferrous metal consumers, improved as the Chinese government is considering larger measures to rescue the property sector by having local governments buy unsold and incomplete homes. This magnified demand optimism after major Chinese cities relaxed home-buying restrictions and Beijing announced CNY 1 trillion of stimulus through long-dated bonds this year. Lower home sales this year and the resulting overcapacity for steel mills drove producers to allocate sales to foreign clients, making export turnover fall by 10% annually in April, despite the near 30% surge in sales volumes. This aligned with foreign probes against Chinese steel dumping, while the US extended tariffs against the country, jeopardizing future exports.
Steel decreased 381 Yuan/MT or 9.70% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Steel reached an all time high of 6198.00 in May of 2021. Steel - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May 19 of 2024.
Steel decreased 381 Yuan/MT or 9.70% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Steel is expected to trade at 3515.50 Yuan/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 3385.20 in 12 months time.