Newcastle coal futures have been steadily rising toward $144 per tonne, following a more than 13% drop in the first week of October, driven by heightened demand from China ahead of the winter peak season and higher natural gas prices due to supply disruptions and the ongoing Middle East conflict. China's coal imports soared 27.5% from a year earlier in September and are up 73.1% since the start of the year due to elevated domestic prices as a result of mine safety inspections following a series of accidents that reduced supply. In addition, increased industrial usage and seasonal restocking efforts in anticipation of colder weather in northern China have contributed to the strong demand for thermal coal.
Historically, Coal reached an all time high of 457.80 in September of 2022. Coal - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on October of 2023.
Coal is expected to trade at 148.38 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 167.01 in 12 months time.