The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits decreased by 3 thousand to 213 thousand in the week ending January 12 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 216 thousand. It was the second straight week of declines, bringing initial claims to the lowest level since the week ending December 8. It compares with market expectations of 220 thousand. According to unadjusted data, the largest declines were reported in New York (-23,318); Georgia (-5,010); Pennsylvania (-4,015) and Connecticut (-3,086) while the biggest increases were seen in California (+17,154); Texas (+6,726); Kentucky (+4,024) and Virginia (+2,469). Meanwhile, claims by federal workers rose by an unadjusted 5,694 to 10,454 in the week ended January 5, the second week of the shutdown, with Texas and California posting some of the largest increases. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States averaged 353.33 Thousand from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 695 Thousand in October of 1982 and a record low of 162 Thousand in November of 1968.
Initial Jobless Claims in the United States is expected to be 215.00 Thousand by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Initial Jobless Claims in the United States to stand at 208.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Initial Jobless Claims is projected to trend around 267.12 Thousand in 2020, according to our econometric models.