The NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index in the US dropped to 101.2 in January 2019 from 104.4 in December and compared with market expectations of 103.2. It is the lowest reading since November of 2016, when President Trump was elected. Half of the decrease in the index came from softer expectations for real sales growth and business conditions in the second half of the year. Also, there was a decline in inventory investment plans, consistent with the rise in concerns about the size of current stocks. Additionally, rates of bill payment and receivables collection deteriorated, probably due to the temporary government shutdown. NFIB Business Optimism Index in the United States averaged 98.25 Index Points from 1975 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 108.80 Index Points in August of 2018 and a record low of 80.10 Index Points in April of 1980.
NFIB Business Optimism Index in the United States is expected to be 107.10 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate NFIB Business Optimism Index in the United States to stand at 97.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Nfib Business Optimism Index is projected to trend around 97.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.