Median year-ahead inflation expectations measured by the New York Fed rose to 3.4% in March of 2026 from 3% in the previous month, the highest so far this year. Consumer expectations for gasoline (9.4% vs 4.1% in February) price growth surged to the highest level since March of 2022 as the outbreak of war in the Middle East lifted benchmark energy prices. Inflation expectations were also higher for food (6% vs 5.3%) and rent (7.1% vs 5.9%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year-ahead horizon edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% and were unchanged at 3% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March. Elsewhere, spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Consumers were more pessimistic about their future household financial situations. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3.40 percent in March from 3 percent in February of 2026. Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.34 percent from 2013 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in June of 2022 and a record low of 2.33 percent in October of 2019. This page provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3.40 percent in March from 3 percent in February of 2026. Inflation Expectations in the United States is expected to be 4.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 2.90 percent in 2027 and 3.00 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-03-09 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Feb 3% 3.1% 3.1%
2026-04-07 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Mar 3.4% 3% 3.7%
2026-05-07 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Apr 3.4%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
CPI 330.21 326.79 points Mar 2026
Core Consumer Prices 334.17 333.51 points Mar 2026
Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.60 2.50 percent Mar 2026
Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.20 0.20 percent Mar 2026
Core PCE Price Index 128.86 128.39 points Feb 2026
Core PCE Price Index YoY 3.00 3.10 percent Feb 2026
Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.40 0.40 percent Feb 2026
Core PCE Prices QoQ 2.70 2.90 percent Dec 2025
Core Producer Prices 152.19 152.05 points Mar 2026
Core PPI MoM 0.10 0.30 percent Mar 2026
Core PPI YoY 3.80 3.80 percent Mar 2026
CPI Core Core YoY 2.60 2.40 percent Mar 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 355.10 353.74 points Mar 2026
CPI Median 2.70 2.90 percent Mar 2026
CPI s.a 330.29 327.46 points Mar 2026
CPI Transportation 283.43 269.61 points Mar 2026
CPI Trimmed-Mean 2.60 2.70 percent Mar 2026
Earnings Growth Expectations 2.40 2.50 percent Mar 2026
Energy Inflation 12.50 0.50 Percent Mar 2026
Export Prices 161.00 158.40 points Mar 2026
Export Prices MoM 1.60 1.90 percent Mar 2026
Export Prices YoY 5.60 3.80 percent Mar 2026
Food Inflation 2.70 3.10 percent Mar 2026
GDP Price Index 130.62 129.43 points Dec 2025
Import Prices 144.60 143.50 points Mar 2026
Import Prices MoM 0.80 0.90 percent Mar 2026
Import Prices YoY 2.10 1.00 percent Mar 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.40 3.00 percent Mar 2026
3-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.10 3.00 percent Mar 2026
5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.10 3.00 percent Mar 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.30 2.40 percent Mar 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 0.90 0.30 percent Mar 2026
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations 3.40 3.20 percent Apr 2026
Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.80 3.80 percent Apr 2026
PCE Price Index 129.45 128.97 points Feb 2026
PCE Price Index YoY 2.80 2.80 percent Feb 2026
PCE Price Index MoM 0.40 0.30 percent Feb 2026
PCE Prices QoQ 2.90 2.80 percent Dec 2025
PPI Ex Food Energy and Trade Services 140.40 140.11 points Mar 2026
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM 0.20 0.50 percent Mar 2026
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY 3.60 3.50 percent Mar 2026
PPI MoM 0.50 0.50 percent Mar 2026
PPI 154.01 153.22 points Mar 2026
PPI YoY 4.00 3.40 percent Mar 2026
Shelter Inflation 3.00 3.00 percent Mar 2026
Services Inflation 3.10 3.10 Percent Mar 2026
Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations 43.50 39.90 percent Mar 2026


United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the US, one-year inflation expectations represent the median expected inflation rate over the next 12 months, as measured by the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data are collected through a nationally representative, internet-based survey of roughly 1,300 rotating household heads, providing insight into short-term consumer inflation sentiment.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.40 3.00 6.80 2.33 2013 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Inflation Expectations Rise Sharply
Median year-ahead inflation expectations measured by the New York Fed rose to 3.4% in March of 2026 from 3% in the previous month, the highest so far this year. Consumer expectations for gasoline (9.4% vs 4.1% in February) price growth surged to the highest level since March of 2022 as the outbreak of war in the Middle East lifted benchmark energy prices. Inflation expectations were also higher for food (6% vs 5.3%) and rent (7.1% vs 5.9%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year-ahead horizon edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% and were unchanged at 3% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March. Elsewhere, spending and household income growth expectations remained largely unchanged. Consumers were more pessimistic about their future household financial situations.
2026-04-07
US Inflation Expectations Fall to 7-Month Low
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US declined to 3% in February 2026, the lowest in seven months, compared to 3.1% in January. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for food (-0.4 percentage point to 5.3%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.7%) and rent (-0.9 percentage point to 5.9%). On the other hand, median year-ahead price change expectations increased by 1.3 percentage points for gas to 4.1% and 0.1 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9.1%. Inflation expectations remained steady at 3% for both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons.
2026-03-09
US Inflation Expectations Lowest in 6 Months
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US declined to 3.1% in January 2026, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for gas (-1.2 percentage points to 2.8%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.8%), rent (-0.9 percentage point to 6.8%) and home (-0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, its lowest reading since July 2023). Meanwhile, median year-ahead price change expectations were unchanged for food at 5.7% and increased by 0.7 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 9%. In addition, inflation expectations remained steady at 3% for both the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7% and unemployment expectations edged up by 0.1 percentage point to 41.9%.
2026-02-09