US median inflation expectations for one year ahead rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in June 2026, the highest since September 2023. Expectations for three years ahead also increased by 0.2 points to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022, while the five-year outlook remained steady at 3.0%. Gas price growth expectations fell by 3.5 points to 1.5%, the lowest since August 2022. The survey also revealed improved job security perceptions: the mean probability of losing a job in the next 12 months dropped by 1.0 point to 14.1%, while the likelihood of finding a new job rose by 1.2 points to 44.9%. Households reported better current financial situations compared to a year ago, though expectations for future credit availability worsened slightly, with more respondents anticipating tighter credit conditions ahead. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3.70 percent in June from 3.50 percent in May of 2026. Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.35 percent from 2013 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in June of 2022 and a record low of 2.33 percent in October of 2019. This page provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3.70 percent in June from 3.50 percent in May of 2026. Inflation Expectations in the United States is expected to be 3.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 2.90 percent in 2027 and 3.00 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-06-08 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
May 3.5% 3.6% 3.8%
2026-07-07 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jun 3.7% 3.5% 3.2%
2026-08-07 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Jul 3.7%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
CPI 335.12 333.02 points May 2026
Core Consumer Prices 336.12 335.42 points May 2026
Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.90 2.80 percent May 2026
Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.20 0.40 percent May 2026
Core PCE Price Index 130.08 129.67 points May 2026
Core PCE Price Index YoY 3.40 3.30 percent May 2026
Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.30 0.30 percent May 2026
Core PCE Prices QoQ 4.40 2.70 percent Mar 2026
Core Producer Prices 154.15 153.51 points May 2026
Core PPI MoM 0.40 0.70 percent May 2026
Core PPI YoY 4.90 4.90 percent May 2026
CPI Core Core YoY 2.70 2.60 percent May 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 358.39 357.35 points May 2026
CPI Median 2.90 2.80 percent May 2026
CPI s.a 333.98 332.41 points May 2026
CPI Transportation 298.41 291.75 points May 2026
CPI Trimmed-Mean 2.90 2.80 percent May 2026
Earnings Growth Expectations 2.80 2.70 percent Jun 2026
Energy Inflation 23.50 17.90 Percent May 2026
Export Prices 168.60 166.50 points May 2026
Export Prices MoM 1.30 3.50 percent May 2026
Export Prices YoY 11.20 8.80 percent May 2026
Food Inflation 3.10 3.20 percent May 2026
GDP Price Index 131.78 130.62 points Mar 2026
Import Prices 150.50 147.70 points May 2026
Import Prices MoM 1.90 2.00 percent May 2026
Import Prices YoY 6.70 4.20 percent May 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.70 3.50 percent Jun 2026
3-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.30 3.10 percent Jun 2026
5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00 3.00 percent Jun 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 4.20 3.80 percent May 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 0.50 0.60 percent May 2026
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations 3.30 3.90 percent Jun 2026
Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.60 4.80 percent Jun 2026
PCE Price Index 131.53 130.94 points May 2026
PCE Price Index YoY 4.10 3.80 percent May 2026
PCE Price Index MoM 0.40 0.40 percent May 2026
PCE Prices QoQ 4.60 2.90 percent Mar 2026
PPI Ex Food Energy and Trade Services 142.34 141.14 points May 2026
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM 0.80 0.50 percent May 2026
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY 5.10 4.40 percent May 2026
PPI MoM 1.10 1.10 percent May 2026
PPI 157.66 156.01 points May 2026
PPI YoY 6.50 5.70 percent May 2026
Shelter Inflation 3.40 3.30 percent May 2026
Services Inflation 3.50 3.40 Percent May 2026
Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations 41.70 43.20 percent Jun 2026


United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the US, one-year inflation expectations represent the median expected inflation rate over the next 12 months, as measured by the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data are collected through a nationally representative, internet-based survey of roughly 1,300 rotating household heads, providing insight into short-term consumer inflation sentiment.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.70 3.50 6.80 2.33 2013 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Inflation Expectations Rise to Highest Since 2023
US median inflation expectations for one year ahead rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in June 2026, the highest since September 2023. Expectations for three years ahead also increased by 0.2 points to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022, while the five-year outlook remained steady at 3.0%. Gas price growth expectations fell by 3.5 points to 1.5%, the lowest since August 2022. The survey also revealed improved job security perceptions: the mean probability of losing a job in the next 12 months dropped by 1.0 point to 14.1%, while the likelihood of finding a new job rose by 1.2 points to 44.9%. Households reported better current financial situations compared to a year ago, though expectations for future credit availability worsened slightly, with more respondents anticipating tighter credit conditions ahead.
2026-07-07
US Consumer Inflation Expectations Ease in May
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US decreased to 3.5% in May 2026 from 3.6% in April which was the highest in a year. Price-growth expectations declined for gas (-0.1 percentage point to 5%), medical care (-0.7 percentage point to 8.9%) and college education (-0.8 percentage point to 8%). In contrast, consumers expect higher prices for home (+0.5 percentage point to 3.5%, the highest since July 2022), food (+0.6 percentage point to 5.8%) and rent (+1.4 percentage point to 7.4%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.1% and 3% at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained stable at 2.7% and nominal household spending growth expectations decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 5%. In addition, the mean unemployment expectations fell by 0.4 percentage point to 43.2%.
2026-06-08
US Consumer Inflation Expectations Rise for 2nd Month
Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations in the US increased for a second month to 3.6% in April 2026, the highest in a year, compared to 3.4% in March. Inflation uncertainty also increased at the one-year-ahead horizon. Gas price growth expectations retreated appreciably to 5.1% from a 9.4% spike in March. A decrease was also seen in price change expectations for food (-0.8 percentage point to 5.2%), medical care (-0.1 percentage point to 9.6%), college education (-0.2 percentage point to 8.8%), rent (-1.1 percentage points to 6%) and home price (-0.3 percentage point to 3%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained steady at 3.1% for the three-year horizon and at 3% for the five-year one. Elsewhere, earnings growth expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point to 2.7% and unemployment expectations went up by 0.4 percentage points to 43.9%, reaching the highest since April 2025.
2026-05-07