Median US inflation expectations for the year ahead rose 0.3 percentage point to 3.9% in September 2026, the highest level since May 2023, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. Year-ahead price expectations increased across several key categories. Gasoline expectations rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, food to 5.3%, and medical care to 9.1%. Expectations for college tuition increased to 6.1%, while rent rose to 6.6%. At the three-year horizon, inflation expectations edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%, while five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.0%. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3.90 percent in September from 3.60 percent in August of 2026. Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.35 percent from 2013 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in June of 2022 and a record low of 2.33 percent in October of 2019. This page provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on October of 2026.

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3.90 percent in September from 3.60 percent in August of 2026. Inflation Expectations in the United States is expected to be 3.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 2.90 percent in 2027 and 3.00 percent in 2028, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-09-08 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Aug 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
2026-10-07 03:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Sep 3.9% 3.6% 3.7%
2026-11-09 04:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Oct 3.9%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
CPI 336.94 334.98 points Sep 2026
Core Consumer Prices 338.90 337.77 points Sep 2026
Core Inflation Rate YoY 2.60 2.40 percent Sep 2026
Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.30 0.30 percent Sep 2026
Core PCE Price Index 130.46 130.13 points Aug 2026
Core PCE Price Index YoY 3.00 3.00 percent Aug 2026
Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.20 0.10 percent Aug 2026
Core PCE Prices QoQ 3.30 3.90 percent Jun 2026
Core Producer Prices 156.17 155.12 points Sep 2026
Core PPI MoM 0.70 0.20 percent Sep 2026
Core PPI YoY 5.00 4.80 percent Sep 2026
CPI Core Core YoY 2.30 2.20 percent Sep 2026
CPI Housing Utilities 361.39 360.23 points Sep 2026
CPI Median 2.60 2.60 percent Sep 2026
CPI s.a 336.30 334.13 points Sep 2026
CPI Transportation 295.86 290.78 points Sep 2026
CPI Trimmed-Mean 2.70 2.60 percent Sep 2026
Earnings Growth Expectations 2.60 2.90 percent Sep 2026
Energy Inflation 20.40 16.30 Percent Sep 2026
Export Prices 170.80 167.20 points Sep 2026
Export Prices MoM 2.20 1.20 percent Sep 2026
Export Prices YoY 11.60 9.30 percent Sep 2026
Food Inflation 2.50 2.70 percent Sep 2026
GDP Price Index 133.41 131.44 points Jun 2026
Import Prices 152.20 150.50 points Sep 2026
Import Prices MoM 1.10 0.50 percent Sep 2026
Import Prices YoY 8.10 6.70 percent Sep 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.90 3.60 percent Sep 2026
3-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.30 3.20 percent Sep 2026
5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00 3.00 percent Sep 2026
Inflation Rate YoY 3.70 3.40 percent Sep 2026
Inflation Rate MoM 0.60 0.40 percent Sep 2026
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations 3.50 3.40 percent Oct 2026
Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.70 4.60 percent Oct 2026
PCE Price Index 131.58 131.17 points Aug 2026
PCE Price Index YoY 3.40 3.40 percent Aug 2026
PCE Price Index MoM 0.30 0.10 percent Aug 2026
PCE Prices QoQ 5.00 4.20 percent Jun 2026
PPI Ex Food Energy and Trade Services 144.26 143.56 points Sep 2026
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM 0.50 0.30 percent Sep 2026
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY 5.00 4.80 percent Sep 2026
PPI MoM 1.30 0.50 percent Sep 2026
PPI 159.78 157.66 points Sep 2026
PPI YoY 6.30 5.60 percent Sep 2026
Shelter Inflation 3.20 3.00 percent Sep 2026
Services Inflation 3.20 3.10 Percent Sep 2026
Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations 43.90 44.40 percent Sep 2026


United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the US, one-year inflation expectations represent the median expected inflation rate over the next 12 months, as measured by the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data are collected through a nationally representative, internet-based survey of roughly 1,300 rotating household heads, providing insight into short-term consumer inflation sentiment.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.90 3.60 6.80 2.33 2013 - 2026 percent Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Inflation Expectations Rise to Three-Year High
Median US inflation expectations for the year ahead rose 0.3 percentage point to 3.9% in September 2026, the highest level since May 2023, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. Year-ahead price expectations increased across several key categories. Gasoline expectations rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, food to 5.3%, and medical care to 9.1%. Expectations for college tuition increased to 6.1%, while rent rose to 6.6%. At the three-year horizon, inflation expectations edged up 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%, while five-year expectations were unchanged at 3.0%.
2026-10-07
US Inflation Expectations Remain Elevated
US consumers’ median one-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.6% in August 2026, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. However, expected price growth for gas rose 1.7 percentage points to 4.6%, while food expectations increased 0.3 percentage point to 5.3%. Medical-care price expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 9.1%. Expectations for college education costs increased 0.3 percentage point to 6.1%, while rent expectations climbed 0.7 percentage point to 6.6%. Meanwhile, the five-year-ahead measure was unchanged at 3%, while three-year-ahead expectations edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. Elsewhere, median expectations for one-year-ahead earnings growth increased slightly to 2.9%. Concerns about the labour market also intensified, with the mean probability that unemployment will be higher in a year rising 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%, the highest level since April 2020.
2026-09-08
US Inflation Expectations Edge Down in July
US median inflation expectations for one year ahead edged down to 3.6% in July 2026 from 3.7% in June which was the highest since September 2023. Inflation expectations decreased for medical care (by 0.5 percentage point to 8.9%) and rent (by 2.4 percentage points to 5.9%) while remaining unchanged for food (at 5%) and median home price growth (at 3.2%). On the other hand, consumers expect prices to increase faster for gas (by 1.4 percentage points to 2.9%) and college education (by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8%). Meanwhile, inflation expectations remained unchanged at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Elsewhere, median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained steady at 2.8% and household spending growth expectations slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9%. Unemployment expectations increased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%.
2026-08-07