This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.50 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.70 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3 3.5 percent
Balance of Trade -54019.00 -45000 -52000 -44000 -56000 -53000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 96.91
96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 99.06
Stock Market 25303.19
points
26407 26103 25804 25507 24354
Government Bond 10Y 3.13
percent
3.1 3.15 3.21 3.26 3.47
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.50
percent
2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.00
percent
2.9 2.5 2.8 2.7 1.7
GDP 19390.60
USD Billion
19800 20220 20220 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices 18671.50
USD Billion
18752 18782 19030 19176 19548
Gross National Product 18766.40
USD Billion
17976 17991 19292 19273 18738
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3320.14
USD Billion
3302 3353 3415 3410 3442
GDP per capita 53128.54
USD
53500 54100 54100 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45
USD
55220 56900 56900 56900 58500
GDP From Agriculture 216.90
USD Billion
156 154 154 154 163
GDP From Construction 641.40
USD Billion
680 684 686 685 708
GDP From Manufacturing 2125.80
USD Billion
2041 2050 2056 2054 2128
GDP From Mining 429.80
USD Billion
399 402 403 403 416
GDP From Public Administration 2175.50
USD Billion
2147 2136 2142 2140 2238
GDP From Services 12700.80
USD Billion
12072 12080 12116 12104 12584
GDP From Transport 542.40
USD Billion
492 498 499 499 513
GDP From Utilities 284.30
USD Billion
292 286 286 286 304
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.70
percent
3.7 3.8 3.8 3.7 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls 250.00
Thousand
165 193 182 179 170
Government Payrolls 4.00
Thousand
12 1 15 6.87 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 246.00
Thousand
160 188 178 166 161
Manufacturing Payrolls 32.00
Thousand
10 12 1 6 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 216.00
Thousand
210 215 220 230 240
Continuing Jobless Claims 1676.00
Thousand
1600 1626 1610 1630 1700
ADP Employment Change 227.00
Thousand
160 220 219 219 150
Employed Persons 156562.00
Thousand
155964 156189 156389 156566 154000
Unemployed Persons 6075.00
Thousand
5970 5848 5756 5682 5417
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20
percent
0.28 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Average Weekly Hours 34.50
Hours
34.4 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90
percent
62.8 62.7 62.7 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.84
percent
0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.30
percent
8.3 8.2 8.1 8 7.7
Productivity 105.67
Index Points
106 106 107 107 109
Labour Costs 109.66
Index Points
110 110 111 111 113
Job Vacancies 7070.00
Thousand
5450 5900 6732 6300 5200
Job Offers 7009.00
Thousand
5818 6300 6700 6600 5800
Challenger Job Cuts 75644.00
Persons
33300 55080 36000 42000 31000
Wages 22.89
USD/Hour
23.25 23.65 24.05 24.55 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing 21.68
USD/Hour
21.65 21.9 21.45 21.75 22.4
Wage Growth 4.79
percent
4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Minimum Wages 7.25
USD/Hour
7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.80
percent
0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6
Population 325.72
Million
328 329 329 330 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 1960.00
USD/Month
2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4520.00
USD/Month
4500 4500 4550 4550 4550
Employment Rate 60.60
percent
60.6 60.7 60.8 60.8 61
Full Time Employment 129212.00
Thousand
129484 129861 130179 130449 131628
Living Wage Family 2380.00
USD/Month
2300 2380 2380 2380 2380
Living Wage Individual 1660.00
USD/Month
1555 1583 1598 1612 1569
Part Time Employment 27297.00
Thousand
27002 26990 26700 26800 2750
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent
2.4 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 252.83
Index Points
254 255 257 258 266
Core Consumer Prices 258.94
Index Points
260 262 263 264 272
Core Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
GDP Deflator 110.65
Index Points
116 116 117 113 124
Producer Prices 117.20
Index Points
118 119 120 120 125
Producer Prices Change 2.90
percent
3 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.2
Export Prices 127.80
Index Points
128 128 128 128 119
Import Prices 128.40
Index Points
129 129 129 129 129
Food Inflation 1.20
percent
1.6 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1
Core Pce Price Index 110.37
Index Points
111 111 112 112 120
Core Producer Prices 116.10
Index Points
116 117 118 118 123
CPI Housing Utilities 260.27
Index Points
260 262 265 266 273
CPI Transportation 213.48
Index Points
208 213 220 218 218
Pce Price Index 108.60
Index Points
117 109 110 110 121
Inflation Expectations 3.00
percent
2.9 3.1 3.1 3 3.2
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.25
percent
2.5 2.5 2.75 3 3.5
Interbank Rate 2.63
percent
2.62 2.62 2.87 3.12 3.62
Money Supply M0 3520960.00
USD Million
3494439 3478880 3475540 3474523 3474254
Money Supply M1 3731.10
USD Billion
3782 3831 3879 3926 4324
Money Supply M2 14253.70
USD Billion
14405 14561 14718 14875 16266
Foreign Exchange Reserves 123729.00
USD Million
123171 123186 123197 123199 123199
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4102109.00
USD Million
4358306 4352601 4350218 4036945 4200000
Banks Balance Sheet 16821077.00
USD Million
16836988 16851465 16855326 16856348 16856716
Loans to Private Sector 2236.67
USD Billion
2250 2272 2289 2305 2373
Private Debt to GDP 202.80
percent
198 195 195 205 191
Foreign Bond Investment 63131.00
USD Million
7354 11102 11072 11121 11116
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -54019.00
USD Million
-45000 -52000 -44000 -56000 -53000
Exports 212565.00
USD Million
215000 207000 213000 213000 206000
Imports 266584.00
USD Million
260000 259000 257000 269000 259000
Current Account -101460.00
USD Million
-102000 -109000 -103000 -101000 -125000
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent
-2.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5
External Debt 19306582.00
USD Million
19639250 19814326 19990976 20168568 21763606
Terms of Trade 106.98
Index Points
99.55 99.45 99.65 99.74 92.43
Capital Flows 108188.00
USD Million
90963 80725 74376 72936 75040
Foreign Direct Investment 47253.00
USD Million
47576 46773 47180 47032 47123
Net Long Term Tic Flows 131823.00
USD Million
60337 53271 52948 53163 53164
Gold Reserves 8133.46
Tonnes
8134 8133 8133 8133 8134
Crude Oil Production 11346.00
BBL/D/1K
12000 12500 12730 12800 12500
Terrorism Index 5.43
5.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8
Tourism Revenues 21283.00
USD Million
21274 21254 21269 21259 21263
Tourist Arrivals 6734056.00
6791500 6764000 6755000 6759100 6760100
Weapons Sales 12394.00
USD Million
12283 12241 12200 12158 11141
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40
percent
108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP
-5 -5 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value -100000.00
USD Million
-33824 -45667 -58601 -62101 -62490
Government Spending 3197.46
USD Billion
3231 3231 3261 3284 3368
Government Revenues 252692.00
USD Million
293184 279794 276893 276223 276053
Government Debt 21702370.00
USD Million
21886629 22155110 22426134 22694427 24997174
Fiscal Expenditure 353183.00
USD Million
298094 325461 335494 338324 338542
Asylum Applications 6901.00
Persons
6966 6975 6983 6984 6982
Military Expenditure 597177.90
USD Million
752325 599577 599947 600317 771394
Government Spending To GDP 37.70
percent
37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 57.70
Index Points
56 53 55 57 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.70
53 52.1 52.8 53.2 51
Non Manufacturing PMI 60.30
54.6 54 54.2 56 52
Services PMI 54.80
Index Points
53.4 53.1 54 55.3 54.8
Composite Pmi 54.90
Index Points
53.3 55.2 55.4 54.2 55.1
Industrial Production 5.10
percent
3 2.9 3 2.6 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.30
percent
0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2
Manufacturing Production 3.50
percent
2.1 1.8 5.01 5.15 1.9
Capacity Utilization 78.10
percent
78.3 78.5 78.6 78.52 78
Durable Goods Orders 0.80
percent
2.5 -1.5 2.2 1.5 2.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.60
percent
2 -0.8 1.8 1.2 1.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.10
percent
0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.40
percent
0.8 0.3 1.2 0.5 1
Factory Orders 0.70
percent
1.5 -0.9 2.2 1.8 0.8
New Orders 515334.00
USD Million
519608 521513 522309 522632 522844
Business Inventories 0.30
percent
0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2
Changes in Inventories 76.33
USD Billion
69 52.68 74.01 47.79 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.40
percent
0.5 0.3 0.4 0.55 0.2
Bankruptcies 22103.00
Companies
21769 21569 21575 21436 21498
Corporate Profits 2007.53
USD Billion
2058 2074 2088 2102 2219
NFIB Business Optimism Index 107.40
Index Points
105 107 105 102 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 12.90
Index Points
21 25 9.41 10 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 15.00
Index Points
5 10 11 7 3
Ism New York Index 69.80
percent
55 56 53.9 60 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 23.30
Index Points
21 19 17 22 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 29.40
Index Points
27.9 20.1 28.6 29.16 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.17
0.9 0.7 0.25 0.23 0.05
Chicago Pmi 58.40
Index Points
59.1 61 58 56 56
Total Vehicle Sales 17.57
Million
17.4 16.9 17 18 17.3
Car Production 2.78
Million Units
2.97 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.54
Car Registrations 443.14
Thousand
466 484 469 463 471
Crude Oil Stocks Change 10.27
BBL/1Million
-2 2.5 4.5 3.8 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change -1411.00
Thousand Barrels
1000 2200 -1600 -1200 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change 39.00
Billion cf
-180 -55 75 55 -200
Leading Economic Index 124.26
Index Points
125 126 127 128 134
Internet Speed 18747.58
KBps
23553 24392 24867 25327 29875
IP Addresses 128949703.00
IP
129684171 129654649 129670238 129654406 129691461
Crude Oil Rigs 886.00
903 917 921 923 923
API Crude Oil Stock Change 8.79
BBL/1Million
6.2 4.8 -3.2 5.2 2
Steel Production 7251.00
Thousand Tonnes
6870 7352 7279 7285 7150
Competitiveness Index 85.64
Points
86.14 86.14 86.14 86.14 88.64
Competitiveness Rank 1.00
1 1 1 1 1
Corruption Index 75.00
Points
75 75 75 75 75
Corruption Rank 16.00
16 16 16 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 8.00
6 7 8 8 6
Mining Production 13.40
percent
11 9 11 13.89 4
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 98.30
Index Points
93 95 96 97 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.80
percent
0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.60
percent
4 4.2 4 5.2 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.70
percent
0.3 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.4
Consumer Spending 12968.54
USD Billion
13075 13041 13202 13319 13630
Disposable Personal Income 15650.96
USD Billion
15674 15676 15673 15670 15637
Personal Spending 0.40
percent
0.3 0.5 0.3 0.35 0.5
Personal Income 0.20
percent
0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.3
Personal Savings 6.20
percent
6.6 6.7 6.8 7 5.2
Consumer Credit 10.92
USD Billion
15.1 13 14 10.5 8
Private Sector Credit 9446.76
USD Billion
9487 9537 9586 9632 9952
Bank Lending Rate 5.25
percent
5.25 5.25 5.5 5.75 6.25
Economic Optimism Index 56.40
52.3 52 51.3 53.9 50
Redbook Index 6.10
percent
5.8 5.2 4.8 4 4
Chain Store Sales 3979.00
USD Million
9100 4200 4000 4050 9200
Gasoline Prices 0.74
USD/Liter
0.73 0.71 0.7 0.69 0.64
Households Debt To GDP 77.30
percent of GDP
77.5 78 78 78 79
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Building Permits 1241.00
Thousand
1230 1320 1202 1192 1315
Housing Starts 1201.00
Thousand units
1330 1300 1195 1190 1280
New Home Sales 553.00
Thousand
600 615 635 595 590
Pending Home Sales -1.00
percent
0.1 1.1 1.3 -1.4 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5150.00
Thousand
5600 5500 5196 5197 5000
Construction Spending 0.00
percent
1 0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.4
Housing Index 0.30
percent
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 68.00
68 66 65.3 65 53
Mortgage Rate 5.17
percent
5.17 5.17 5.42 5.67 6.17
Mortgage Applications -3.20
percent
1.2 3.4 -0.8 3.5 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index 213.72
Index Points
213 215 218 221 230
Home Ownership Rate 64.40
percent
64.5 64.6 65 64.8 64.5
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent
21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00
percent
37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 15.30
percent
15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.65
percent
7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65
percent
7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature -1.42
celsius
3.01 -1.15 18.73 13.63 8.8
Precipitation 75.78
mm
48.58 46.48 56.22 56.22 55.37



United States - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook