Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Stock Market (points) 27076.82 26726 26355 25989 25626 24919
Currency 98.22 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 97.33
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.82 1.87 1.92 1.97 2.02 2.12
Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.00 1.9 2.1 1.8 2 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.30 2.4 2.3 1.9 2 1.7
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.70 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 130.00 179 150 180 169 170
Inflation Rate (%) 1.70 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.5 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.10 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 2.25 2 2 2 2 2.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -53989.00 -56000 -60000 -55000 -43000 -62000
Current Account (USD Million) -130400.00 -131000 -134000 -129000 -125000 -125000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.10 108 108 109 109 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -5 -5 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.40 56 53 52 52 52
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.70 52.4 52.2 52.1 51.5 50.8
Business Confidence (Index Points) 49.10 49.4 51.5 51 52.6 52
Manufacturing PMI 50.30 50.1 50.7 51.2 50.6 50.4
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.4
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 92.00 92 92 90 88 86.7
Building Permits (Thousand) 1336.00 1240 1210 1150 1100 1115
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 35 35 35
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.00 1.9 2.1 1.8 2 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.30 2.4 2.3 1.9 2 1.7
GDP (USD Billion) 20494.10 21200 21200 21990 21990 21990
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 19023.02 19182 19216 19287 19403 19542
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19324.33 19451 19466 19538 19711 19797
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3339.90 3381 3399 3413 3407 3457
GDP per capita (USD) 54541.70 55100 55100 56200 56200 56200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 55681.05 56900 56900 58500 58500 58500
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 212.40 217 219 218 218 222
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 642.80 662 657 655 656 669
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2178.20 2191 2204 2196 2198 2242
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 494.00 440 477 475 475 485
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2173.60 2233 2230 2221 2223 2268
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 12995.40 13130 13184 13132 13145 13408
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 542.40 559 556 554 554 565
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 282.40 288 288 287 287 293
Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.70 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 130.00 179 150 180 169 170
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 34.00 13 8 10 20 9
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 96.00 166 142 170 165 161
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 3.00 -12 15 12 -6 -2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 204.00 201 209 216 220 238
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1670.00 1630 1650 1650 1680 1700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 195.00 160 145 180 145 150
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 6044.00 5900 6150 6200 5900 6280
Employed Persons (Thousand) 157878.00 157000 157000 157100 157500 154000
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.40 34.5 34.4 34.5 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 63.20 63 62.9 62.8 62.9 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.81 0.81 0.81
Productivity (Index Points) 107.54 107 107 107 108 108
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 7471.00 6900 6800 7400 6800 6800
Job Offers (Thousand) 7217.00 7200 7200 7100 7000 6800
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 53480.00 61000 48000 65000 48000 51000
Wages (USD/Hour) 23.59 23.98 24.13 24.18 24.38 24.9
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 22.19 22.69 22.93 22.85 22.99 23.66
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.60 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6
Population (Million) 327.17 326 326 326 326 326
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 26974.00 26800 27000 2690 2690 2750
Wages High Skilled (USD/Month) 4520.00 4542 4723 4701 4705 4875
Wages Low Skilled (USD/Month) 1960.00 1846 2048 2038 2040 2114
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 130789.00 130449 131679 130679 131400 132302
Living Wage Family (USD/Month) 2380.00 2381 2487 2475 2478 2567
Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Inflation Rate (%) 1.70 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.5 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.10 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI (Index Points) 256.30 257 258 259 259 263
Core Consumer Prices (Index Points) 264.25 265 265 267 268 271
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.40 2.4 2 2.1 1.8 2
GDP Deflator (Index Points) 112.18 113 113 113 114 116
Producer Prices (Index Points) 118.60 119 120 120 120 122
Producer Prices Change (%) 1.80 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.2
Food Inflation (%) 1.70 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9
CPI Housing Utilities (Index Points) 267.26 265 266 269 270 272
CPI Transportation (Index Points) 211.08 216 208 213 216 213
Inflation Expectations (%) 2.41 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.5
Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Interest Rate (%) 2.25 2 2 2 2 2.25
Interbank Rate (%) 2.14 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.13 2.38
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 3744394.00 3836945 3805838 3795838 3792838 3750000
Private Debt to GDP (%) 196.70 192 192 189 189 189
Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -53989.00 -56000 -60000 -55000 -43000 -62000
Current Account (USD Million) -130400.00 -131000 -134000 -129000 -125000 -125000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5
Imports (USD Million) 261391.00 262000 258000 255000 260000 268000
Exports (USD Million) 207401.00 213000 198000 200000 217000 206000
Terms of Trade (Index Points) 106.25 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.14 92.43
Net Long Term Tic Flows (USD Million) 99054.00 49156 49370 49413 49413 49404
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 12082.00 12800 13000 12900 13500 13500
Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Government Debt to GDP (%) 106.10 108 108 109 109 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -5 -5 -4.8 -4.8 -4.8
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -200344.00 -62101 -62737 -62737 -152737 -62500
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3293.82 3316 3309 3320 3360 3366
Government Spending To GDP (%) 38.00 38.6 38.6 38.9 38.9 38.9
Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 35 35 35
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.40 56 53 52 52 52
Services PMI (Index Points) 50.70 52.4 52.2 52.1 51.5 50.8
Business Confidence (Index Points) 49.10 49.4 51.5 51 52.6 52
Manufacturing PMI 50.30 50.1 50.7 51.2 50.6 50.4
Composite Pmi (Index Points) 50.70 52.2 52 51.9 51 51.1
Industrial Production (%) 0.50 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.1
Industrial Production Mom (%) -0.20 0.2 0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.2
Manufacturing Production (%) -0.50 -1.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.9
Capacity Utilization (%) 77.50 78.1 78 77.8 77.5 78.6
Durable Goods Orders (%) 2.10 1.5 -0.5 0.2 0.5 1.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 1.40 1.1 -0.3 0.1 1.3 1.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.40 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.2 1.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.30 0.5 -0.8 0.4 0.3 1
Factory Orders (%) 1.40 1.8 -0.5 0.1 0.5 0.8
Business Inventories (%) 0.40 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.20 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.5 0.2
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1882.97 2050 2060 1950 1960 2150
NFIB Business Optimism Index (Index Points) 103.10 102 97 94 98 93
Ism New York Index (%) 50.30 54 55 52 51 55.9
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 2.70 -4 -3 4 10 2
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.36 -0.3 -0.3 -0.15 -0.2 0.05
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 16.80 10 12 11 14 9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 2.00 4.2 15 8 5 10
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Index Points) 1.00 -7 -6 -10 -4 -3
Chicago Pmi (Index Points) 50.40 52 51 50 52 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.90 18 17 17 17 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 2.67 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -6.91 3.8 2.7 5 3 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) -682.00 -1200 500 500 600 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 78.00 55 -170 -170 -120 -200
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -7.23 5.2 -3.2 -3.2 2 2
Mining Production (%) 5.50 4 2.9 3 2.5 3.2
Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.4
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 92.00 92 92 90 88 86.7
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.10 3.8 2.9 2 2 2
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.00 0.5 0.6 -0.5 0.3 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13253.38 13332 13367 13352 13518 13594
Personal Spending (%) 0.60 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5
Personal Income (%) 0.10 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 7.70 8 8.4 8.5 8.2 8.9
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 23.29 14.95 15.71 17.37 17.43 15.98
Bank Lending Rate (%) 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.5
Economic Optimism Index 50.80 53.9 51 50 51 49
Redbook Index (%) 6.40 4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 3085.00 3750 7550 3600 3850 7300
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.61 0.61
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 76.30 78 78 78 78 79
Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2020
Building Permits (Thousand) 1336.00 1240 1210 1150 1100 1115
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1191.00 1215 1120 1150 1240 1180
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 635.00 590 540 710 600 490
Pending Home Sales (%) -0.30 1.2 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.2
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 5420.00 5250 4800 4900 5200 4600
Construction Spending (%) 0.10 0.4 1.1 -0.5 0.3 0.4
Housing Index (%) 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2
Nahb Housing Market Index 66.00 65 63 61 62 59
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.82 3.82 3.82 3.82 3.82 4.07
Mortgage Applications (%) 2.00 3.5 2.7 2.7 1.5 0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index (Index Points) 217.65 221 220 216 220 225
Home Ownership Rate (%) 64.10 64.8 64.8 64.8 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.