United States - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	2.00	2.6	2.8	2.3	2.3	2	percent
Unemployment Rate	4.00	3.9	3.9	3.8	3.8	4.2	percent
Inflation Rate	2.90	3	3	2.9	3	2.5	percent
Interest Rate	2.00	2.25	2.5	2.5	2.75	3	percent
Balance of Trade	-43053.00	-42100	-55000	-52000	-34000	-53000	USD Million
Government Debt to GDP	105.40	108	108	108	108	109	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	94.50	93.86	94.78	95.7	96	96
Stock Market	25022.98 points	23360	22572	21813	21078	18378
Government Bond 10Y	2.86 percent	2.98	3.14	3.31	3.48	4.28

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	2.00 percent	2.6	2.8	2.3	2.3	2
GDP Annual Growth Rate	2.80 percent	2.5	2.7	2.5	2.5	2.6
GDP	19390.60 USD Billion	19800	19800	20220	20220	20700
GDP Constant Prices	17371.85 USD Billion	17593	17753	17806	17806	18725
Gross National Product	17551.88 USD Billion	17787	17941	17991	17991	18923
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	3028.87 USD Billion	2989	3054	3105	3105	3221
GDP per capita	53128.54 USD	53500	53500	54100	54100	54800
GDP per capita PPP	54225.45 USD	55220	55220	56900	56900	58500
GDP From Agriculture	151.70 USD Billion	156	156	155	155	164
GDP From Construction	660.50 USD Billion	663	678	677	677	715
GDP From Manufacturing	1983.60 USD Billion	2007	2037	2033	2033	2149
GDP From Mining	387.40 USD Billion	388	398	397	397	420
GDP From Public Administration	2086.70 USD Billion	2139	2143	2139	2139	2260
GDP From Services	11731.40 USD Billion	11958	12048	12025	12025	12708
GDP From Transport	478.20 USD Billion	484	491	490	490	518
GDP From Utilities	283.40 USD Billion	284	291	290	290	307

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	4.00 percent	3.9	3.9	3.8	3.8	4.2
Non Farm Payrolls	213.00 Thousand	195	165	193	182	170
Government Payrolls	11.00 Thousand	5	12	1	15	11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private	202.00 Thousand	190	160	188	178	161
Manufacturing Payrolls	36.00 Thousand	20	10	12	1	-2
Initial Jobless Claims	214.00 Thousand	220	220	220	220	220
Continuing Jobless Claims	1739.00 Thousand	1749	1755	1758	1759	1760
ADP Employment Change	177.00 Thousand	193	160	181	181	150
Employed Persons	155576.00 Thousand	156010	156392	156730	157031	154000
Unemployed Persons	6564.00 Thousand	6454	6468	6469	6471	6475
Average Hourly Earnings	0.20 percent	0.2	0.21	0.22	0.22	0.22
Average Weekly Hours	34.50 Hours	34.4	34.4	34.51	34.5	34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate	62.90 percent	62.8	62.8	62.7	62.7	62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate	0.74 percent	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.4	-0.2
Youth Unemployment Rate	8.90 percent	8.7	8.6	8.6	8.6	8.4
Productivity	109.05 Index Points	110	110	110	110	113
Labour Costs	110.16 Index Points	111	111	111	112	114
Job Vacancies	6671.00 Thousand	6687	6674	6717	6732	6717
Job Offers	6638.00 Thousand	6913	6919	6917	6915	6911
Challenger Job Cuts	37202.00 Persons	36375	62300	34132	33394	63500
Wages	22.62 USD/Hour	23.35	23.8	24.11	24.49	25.9
Wages in Manufacturing	21.40 USD/Hour	21.87	22.06	22.38	22.75	24.61
Wage Growth	4.56 percent	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.6
Minimum Wages	7.25 USD/Hour	7.25	7.25	7.5	7.5	7.5
Employment Cost Index	0.80 percent	0.66	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.68
Population	325.72 Million	328	328	329	329	335
Retirement Age Women	66.00	66	66	66	66	66
Retirement Age Men	66.00	66	66	66	66	66
Wages Low Skilled	2090.00 USD/Month	2150	2150	2150	2150	2200
Wages High Skilled	4290.00 USD/Month	4500	4500	4500	4550	4550
Employment Rate	60.40 percent	60.5	60.5	60.5	60.6	60.7
Full Time Employment	128568.00 Thousand	129148	129598	129979	130303	131779
Living Wage Family	2240.00 USD/Month	2300	2300	2380	2380	2380
Living Wage Individual	1540.00 USD/Month	1485	1492	1488	1484	1469
Part Time Employment	27028.00 Thousand	27153	27139	27138	27139	27139

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	2.90 percent	3	3	2.9	3	2.5
Inflation Rate Mom	0.10 percent	0.3	0.3	0.12	0.12	0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI	250.86 Index Points	254	255	257	258	269
Core Consumer Prices	257.31 Index Points	259	260	262	263	272
Core Inflation Rate	2.30 percent	2.5	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.2
GDP Deflator	114.90 Index Points	115	116	116	117	124
Producer Prices	116.40 Index Points	117	118	119	120	125
Producer Prices Change	3.40 percent	3	2.8	2.8	3.1	3.2
Export Prices	128.10 Index Points	129	129	129	129	119
Import Prices	127.70 Index Points	127	126	126	126	126
Food Inflation	1.40 percent	1.7	1.8	2.2	2.1	2.1
Core Pce Price Index	115.03 Index Points	116	116	117	117	120
Core Producer Prices	115.30 Index Points	116	117	117	118	124
CPI Housing Utilities	258.71 Index Points	261	261	264	266	276
CPI Transportation	214.68 Index Points	211	209	214	221	220
Pce Price Index	114.76 Index Points	115	117	116	117	121
Inflation Expectations	2.98 percent	2.89	2.89	2.89	2.89	2.89

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	2.00 percent	2.25	2.5	2.5	2.75	3
Interbank Rate	2.34 percent	2.59	2.84	2.84	3.09	3.34
Money Supply M0	3650554.00 USD Million	3620475	3612695	3610632	3610182	3610007
Money Supply M1	3658.00 USD Billion	3711	3753	3795	3836	4217
Money Supply M2	14112.30 USD Billion	14244	14403	14562	14719	16271
Foreign Exchange Reserves	122844.00 USD Million	122491	122461	122454	122454	122455
Central Bank Balance Sheet	4259935.00 USD Million	4360790	4358306	4352601	4350218	4200000
Banks Balance Sheet	16739100.00 USD Million	16818988	16833988	16837697	16838631	16838945
Loans to Private Sector	2209.53 USD Billion	2276	2337	2389	2434	2653
Private Debt to GDP	202.80 percent	198	198	195	195	191
Foreign Bond Investment	-4776.00 USD Million	2129	2132	2156	2155	2155

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-43053.00 USD Million	-42100	-55000	-52000	-34000	-53000
Exports	215328.00 USD Million	206000	205000	207000	223000	206000
Imports	258381.00 USD Million	257000	260000	259000	257000	259000
Current Account	-124105.00 USD Million	-131000	-132000	-129000	-124383	-145000
Current Account to GDP	-2.40 percent	-2.7	-2.7	-2.7	-2.7	-3
External Debt	-7888082.00 USD Million	-7980634	-7977962	-7966377	-7965937	-7954592
Terms of Trade	98.39 Index Points	102	102	102	102	94.09
Capital Flows	138700.00 USD Million	6954	21927	27532	29945	28900
Foreign Direct Investment	45701.00 USD Million	45716	46414	46098	46203	46174
Net Long Term Tic Flows	93900.00 USD Million	51136	51085	50828	50813	50819
Gold Reserves	8134.00 Tonnes	8134	8134	8134	8134	8134
Crude Oil Production	10467.00 BBL/D/1K	9806	9980	9809	10030	11500
Terrorism Index	5.43	5.2	5.2	5.6	5.6	5.8
Tourism Revenues	21465.00 USD Million	21414	21440	21422	21435	21430
Tourist Arrivals	6145476.00	6572800	6594500	6591200	6587400	6588300
Weapons Sales	12394.00 USD Million	11923	12283	12241	12200	11141

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	105.40 percent	108	108	108	108	109
Government Budget	-3.50 percent of GDP	-3.9	-5	-5	-5	-6
Government Budget Value	-74858.00 USD Million	-47267	-58790	-59598	-59958	-60423
Government Spending	2930.69 USD Billion	2972	3000	3004	3004	3165
Government Revenues	316278.00 USD Million	316273	299086	295111	294542	294258
Government Debt	21195070.00 USD Million	21446371	21686156	21924466	22160251	24389754
Fiscal Expenditure	391136.00 USD Million	363540	356324	354709	354501	354681
Asylum Applications	6901.00 Persons	6929	6963	6978	6982	6981
Military Expenditure	597177.90 USD Million	600321	752325	599577	599947	771394
Government Spending To Gdp	37.80 percent	37.89	38.06	38.09	38.11	37.73

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	60.20 Index Points	55	54	53	55	52
Manufacturing PMI	55.40	53.8	53	52.1	52.8	53
Non Manufacturing PMI	59.10	54	54.6	54	54.2	52
Services PMI	56.50 Index Points	53.6	53.4	53.1	54	54.8
Composite Pmi	56.20 Index Points	53.8	53.3	55.2	55.4	55.1
Industrial Production	3.50 percent	3.5	3	2.9	3	1.1
Industrial Production Mom	-0.10 percent	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2
Manufacturing Production	1.70 percent	2.8	2.1	1.8	1.23	1.9
Capacity Utilization	77.90 percent	78.6	78.3	78.5	78.6	78
Durable Goods Orders	-0.60 percent	0.61	-0.3	0.35	0.34	0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense	-1.50 percent	0.64	0.39	0.34	0.33	0.33
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation	-0.30 percent	0.33	0.28	0.26	0.26	0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation	0.70 percent	0.35	0.3	0.28	0.27	0.27
Factory Orders	0.40 percent	0.3	0.1	0.29	0.29	0.2
New Orders	498174.00 USD Million	498178	497715	497591	497556	497539
Business Inventories	0.40 percent	0.3	-0.2	0.4	0.27	0.2
Changes in Inventories	13.86 USD Billion	19.5	69	17.73	16.35	75
Wholesale Inventories	0.60 percent	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.2
Bankruptcies	23106.00 Companies	23013	22896	22926	22911	22907
Corporate Profits	1920.00 USD Billion	1935	1947	1959	1971	2088
NFIB Business Optimism Index	107.20 Index Points	102	103	107	105	97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	19.90 Index Points	21	21	25	9.39	16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	20.00 Index Points	20	5	10	5.57	3
Ism New York Index	55.00 percent	56.8	55	56	53.9	55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	22.60 Index Points	18	21	19	17	10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	36.50 Index Points	31.4	27.9	20.1	34.15	12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	-0.15	0.15	0.9	0.7	0.12	0.05
Chicago Pmi	64.10 Index Points	59	59.1	61	58	56
Total Vehicle Sales	17.47 Million	17.23	19.4	17.28	17.28	18.7
Car Production	2.70 Million Units	2.87	3.97	2.91	2.91	4.04
Car Registrations	461.17 Thousand	521	495	495	501	496
Crude Oil Stocks Change	-12.63 BBL/1Million	0.01	-2	0.06	0.06	0.1
Gasoline Stocks Change	-694.00 Thousand Barrels	-500	1000	21.93	21.93	500
Natural Gas Stocks Change	51.00 Billion cf	46.62	45.97	45.95	45.95	45.95
Leading Economic Index	123.07 Index Points	123	123	123	123	123
Internet Speed	18747.58 KBps	22628	23553	24392	24867	29875
IP Addresses	128949703.00 IP	129480480	129684171	129654649	129670238	129691461
Crude Oil Rigs	863.00	869	871	872	872	872
API Crude Oil Stock Change	-6.80 BBL/1Million	-0.17	0.15	0.17	0.17	0.3
Steel Production	7107.00 Thousand Tonnes	6882	6870	7040	7001	7150
Competitiveness Index	5.85 Points	5.85	5.85	5.9	5.9	5.85
Competitiveness Rank	2.00	3	3	2	2	3
Corruption Index	75.00 Points	74	74	75	75	76
Corruption Rank	16.00	17	16	16	16	16
Ease of Doing Business	6.00	7	6	7	7	6
Mining Production	12.60 percent	12.5	11	9	11	4

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	97.10 Index Points	97	93	95	96	86.7
Retail Sales MoM	0.50 percent	0.36	0.32	0.32	0.32	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	6.60 percent	5.2	4	4.2	5.75	4
Retail Sales Ex Autos	0.40 percent	0.38	0.34	0.33	0.33	0.4
Consumer Spending	12061.04 USD Billion	12214	12360	12363	12363	13037
Disposable Personal Income	14929.76 USD Billion	15062	15170	15278	15385	16460
Personal Spending	0.20 percent	0.33	0.7	0.33	0.33	0.5
Personal Income	0.40 percent	0.32	0.4	0.31	0.31	0.31
Personal Savings	3.20 percent	3.5	3.6	3.7	3.14	4.2
Consumer Credit	24.60 USD Billion	15.52	15.05	15.05	15.04	15.04
Private Sector Credit	9347.40 USD Billion	9406	9451	9495	9536	9843
Bank Lending Rate	4.89 percent	5.14	5.39	5.39	5.64	5.89
Economic Optimism Index	56.40	52.9	52.3	52	51.3	50
Redbook Index	5.20 percent	4.7	4.71	4.71	4.71	4.71
Chain Store Sales	4115.00 USD Million	4678	4737	4725	4727	4727
Gasoline Prices	0.75 USD/Liter	0.71	0.67	0.63	0.6	0.34
Households Debt To Gdp	78.70 percent of GDP	78.68	81.2	78.76	78.79	82.6

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Building Permits	1301.00 Thousand	1280	1230	1320	1309	1315
Housing Starts	1350.00 Thousand	1270	1330	1300	1388	1280
New Home Sales	689.00 Thousand	580	600	615	679	590
Pending Home Sales	-2.20 percent	-0.4	0.1	1.1	1.3	1.2
Existing Home Sales	5430.00 Thousand	5500	5600	5500	5444	5000
Construction Spending	0.40 percent	0.3	1	0.54	0.54	0.4
Housing Index	0.10 percent	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.42	0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index	68.00	70	68	66	67.96	53
Mortgage Rate	4.76 percent	4.75	4.75	4.75	4.75	6.5
Mortgage Applications	2.50 percent	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.4
Case Shiller Home Price Index	210.17 Index Points	212	213	215	2016	230
Home Ownership Rate	64.20 percent	64.36	64.51	64.52	64.53	64.86

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	21.00 percent	21	21	21	21	21
Personal Income Tax Rate	37.00 percent	37	37	37	37	35
Sales Tax Rate	0.00 percent	0	0	0	0	0
Social Security Rate	12.40 percent	12.4	12.4	12.4	12.4	12.4
Social Security Rate For Companies	6.20 percent	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2
Social Security Rate For Employees	6.20 percent	7.65	7.65	7.65	7.65	7.65

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Temperature	-1.42 celsius	19.24	3.01	-1.15	18.73	8.8
Precipitation	75.78 mm	63.34	48.58	46.48	56.22	55.37

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