Markets Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Currency 96.18 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 97.33
Stock Market (points) 34492.41 34243 33601 32969 32348 31145
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.39 1.54 1.6 1.66 1.72 1.85

Overview Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.10 4 3.1 2 1.8 2.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.90 3.8 2.1 2 3 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.20 5.2 5.2 5 5 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 210.00 550 350 500 400 280
Inflation Rate (%) 6.20 6.3 4.2 3 2.8 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.90 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.75
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -80934.00 -82000 -82000 -59000 -70000 -49000
Current Account (USD Million) -190282.00 -197000 -167000 -140000 -160000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -3.3 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 128.10 137 138 138 138 138
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.90 -10.2 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7
Business Confidence (points) 61.10 57.4 53 55 53 56
Services PMI (points) 58.00 55.5 52 53 52 50.8
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 69.10 67.5 58 52 52 52
Manufacturing PMI (points) 58.30 58 54.2 54 53 51
Consumer Confidence (points) 67.40 67 68 72 75 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.70 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 1
Building Permits (Thousand) 1650.00 1700 1550 1500 1450 1400
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37

GDP Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.10 4 3.1 2 1.8 2.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 4.90 3.8 2.1 2 3 2
GDP (USD Billion) 20936.60 21500 21500 21500 21500 22790
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 19469.40 19875 19456 19756 20053 19871
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19681.51 20131 19667 19959 20272 20104
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3582.93 3556 3639 3665 3690 3660
GDP per capita (USD) 58510.24 56200 56200 56200 56200 55000
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 60235.73 60500 60500 60500 60500 61100
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 243.00 225 263 248 250 282
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 690.70 684 699 705 711 713
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2329.20 2266 2318 2376 2399 2366
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 416.50 455 443 425 429 454
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2218.30 2310 2227 2263 2285 2308
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 13379.10 13580 13444 13647 13780 13685
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 490.70 578 521 501 505 531
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 290.20 297 293 296 299 306

Labour Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.20 5.2 5.2 5 5 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 210.00 550 350 500 400 280
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 235.00 505 280 450 500 400
Government Payrolls (Thousand) -25.00 2 2 2 15 60
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 31.00 20 40 35 20 20
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 222.00 250 230 215 200 270
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1956.00 2100 2000 1900 1850 2000
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 534.00 350 290 200 300 350
Employed Persons (Thousand) 155175.00 154600 15500 157500 159000 162000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 6877.00 7190 6900 6600 6300 6000
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.30 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.80 34.8 34.8 34.9 35 35
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.80 61.7 62 62.3 62.5 62.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.35 1.35 1.2 1.1 1 0.95
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 8.60 9.6 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.4
Productivity (points) 111.33 112 114 114 114 114
Labour Costs (points) 120.92 126 123 121 125 134
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 10507.00 11100 10600 10000 9800 9600
Job Offers (Thousand) 10438.00 10600 10000 9800 9600 9000
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 14875.00 20000 33000 35000 40000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 26.26 26.43 26.26 26.23 26.94 28.24
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 24.24 25.07 24.24 24.17 24.92 26.09
Wage Growth (%) 9.77 8.4 3.9 2 3 3.6
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 10 10 10 10
Employment Cost Index (%) 1.30 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
Population (Million) 329.48 333 333 333 333 335
Retirement Age Women 66.17 66.17 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33
Retirement Age Men 66.17 66.17 66.33 66.33 66.33 66.33
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 128306.00 129627 130627 132000 134500 135000
Employment Rate (%) 59.20 59 59.1 59.5 59.8 60
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 25906.00 26400 26500 26800 27000 26600
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 238.75 260 250 230 230 220

Prices Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 6.20 6.3 4.2 3 2.8 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.90 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 276.72 278 276 279 282 284
Core Consumer Prices (points) 281.70 282 282 286 287 287
Core Inflation Rate (%) 4.60 4.5 3.8 2.8 2.4 1.7
GDP Deflator (points) 119.10 122 121 121 122 124
Producer Prices (points) 129.80 125 130 130 133 134
Producer Prices Change (%) 8.60 8.8 5.6 3.5 3 3
Export Prices (points) 145.20 141 135 130 130 129
Import Prices (points) 136.50 132 131 132 130 130
Food Inflation (%) 5.30 5.2 5 3 1.8 2
Core Producer Prices (points) 127.70 131 132 136 138 140
Core Pce Price Index (points) 118.85 119 120 120 130 132
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 285.31 291 288 289 292 298
CPI Transportation (points) 241.04 242 244 245 245 247
Pce Price Index (points) 117.42 118 119 121 121 122
Inflation Expectations (%) 5.70 6 5.5 4 2.8 3

Money Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.17 0.17 0.2 0.45 0.45 0.7
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 41276.00 42215 42150 43150 43500 42150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 8681771.00 8586458 8400000 8200000 8000000 7800000
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 22397.10 22656 21600 21050 21000 20556
Loans to Private Sector (USD Billion) 2425.83 2400 2416 2420 2450 2400
Private Debt to GDP (%) 235.50 228 228 228 228 224
Repo Rate 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.17 0.17 0.23

Trade Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -80934.00 -82000 -82000 -59000 -70000 -49000
Current Account (USD Million) -190282.00 -197000 -167000 -140000 -160000 -137000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -3.3 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6
Imports (USD Million) 288492.00 290000 292000 274000 280000 269000
Exports (USD Million) 207558.00 208000 210000 215000 210000 220000
External Debt (USD Million) 22595448.00 22850000 22900000 219000000 219000000 21934407
Terms of Trade (points) 112.71 92.43 103 98.48 100 99.23
Capital Flows (USD Million) -26777.00 35000 35000 45000 50000 23000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 66844.00 53000 53000 50000 52000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11072.00 11350 11500 11650 11900 12200
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -82890.00 -93000 -95000 -88000 -75000 -74500
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 6169.00 9460 10460 11600 15000 18200
Tourist Arrivals 2002051.00 3000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 4760100

Government Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 128.10 137 138 138 138 138
Government Budget (% of GDP) -14.90 -10.2 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7 -7.7
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -165055.00 -62490 -100000 50000 70000 20000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3381.31 3377 3462 3441 3483 3553
Government Revenues (USD Million) 283927.00 355000 280000 390000 390000 340000
Government Debt (USD Million) 28908765.00 28500000 286000000 28620000 28620000 29000000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 448983.00 400000 380000 340000 320000 320000
Government Spending To GDP (% of GDP) 44.00 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 38.4

Taxes Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Business Confidence (points) 61.10 57.4 53 55 53 56
Services PMI (points) 58.00 55.5 52 53 52 50.8
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 69.10 67.5 58 52 52 52
Manufacturing PMI (points) 58.30 58 54.2 54 53 51
Composite PMI (points) 57.20 55.4 53 56 53 51.8
Industrial Production (%) 5.10 4 3.6 3 2 3.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 1.60 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2
Manufacturing Production (%) 4.50 3 3 0.5 2 1
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.40 75.8 76.2 77.4 77.5 77
Durable Goods Orders (%) -0.50 0.3 0.3 1 1.2 0.8
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 0.80 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.50 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 1.60 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.4
Factory Orders (%) 1.00 0.5 0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.2
Business Inventories (%) 0.70 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -73.15 33 25 100 90 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 2.20 1 1 0.4 0.5 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 16140.00 15300 185500 19000 16500 18000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2543.70 2470 2370 2400 2300 2270
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 98.20 97 99 95 96 102
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 39.00 18 12 10 7 5
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 30.90 31.5 18 10 6 6
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 11.00 12.5 8.5 5 6 5
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) 0.76 0.3 0.5 1 0.9 -0.2
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 11.80 13 17 12 10 10
Chicago PMI (points) 61.80 60 58 55 52 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 12.99 13.2 14.5 15.7 16 17.5
Car Production (Million Units) 1.43 1.2 1.4 1.8 2 2.7
Car Registrations (Thousand) 249.41 320 340 380 440 450
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -0.91 2 4 -3 -2 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 4029.00 -500 1000 -150 500 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) -59.00 -60 -120 100 100 20
Leading Economic Index (points) 130.70 127 127 125 122 128
Crude Oil Rigs 467.00 460 480 470 450 460
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -0.75 -2 4 4 4 2
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 7500.00 7310 7210 7200 7000 6500
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 17.00 10 18 9 6 5
Mining Production (%) 11.80 7.3 6.8 2 3 2

Consumer Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) 67.40 67 68 72 75 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.70 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 1
Retail Sales YoY (%) 16.30 10.8 10.8 1.5 2 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 1.70 0.8 0.8 0.5 1 1.2
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13723.73 13803 13562 13939 14135 13688
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 18108.28 17891 17500 17000 17200 17400
Personal Spending (%) 1.30 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 1
Personal Income (%) 0.50 0.6 0.6 1 1 0.6
Personal Savings (%) 7.30 9.5 9.5 9.5 8 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 29.91 16.27 19.8 38.95 30.81 11.6
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10514.73 10600 10700 10500 10000 10000
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.5 3.5 3.75
Economic Optimism Index 43.90 42 48 50 54 50
Redbook Index (%) 16.90 3 2.5 1.5 2 2.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 3088.00 4500 3000 2800 2700 4200
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.90 0.52 0.79 0.75 0.71 0.67
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 80.00 79 79 79 79 79

Housing Actual Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022
Building Permits (Thousand) 1650.00 1700 1550 1500 1450 1400
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1520.00 1470 1400 1400 1380 1370
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 745.00 720 770 750 720 700
Pending Home Sales (%) -1.40 -6.7 -10.7 5 6 7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 6340.00 6100 5800 5600 5600 5500
Construction Spending (%) 0.20 0.6 -0.2 0.8 0.3 0.2
Nahb Housing Market Index 83.00 78 73 75 76 63
Housing Index (points) 354.61 360 355 350 360 365
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.31 3.3 3.4 3.4 2.8 3.5
Mortgage Applications (%) -7.20 2.6 2.6 2 2 0.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 277.24 280 279 272 273 275
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.40 65.5 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.5


Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. United States Forecast - was last updated on Friday, December 3, 2021.