United States | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

In 2017, a resilient household spending and inventory building are expected to support growth in the United States. However, net trade is likely to drag the expansion down amid a strong dollar as the Fed continues to tighten. In addition, business sentiment is expected to soften and stocks to pull back on raising concerns over the delivery of promised fiscal stimulus. This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 2.1 2 1.9 2.2 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.1 2.1 2 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -43706.00 -44200 -45000 -46700 -50000 -59000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 108 112 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 97.39 107 109 112 113 115 [+]
Stock Market 21080.28 20500 20200 19600 19800 16500 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.25 2.41 2.44 2.46 2.49 2.87 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 2.1 2 1.9 2.2 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18036.65 19200 19200 19200 19800 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16861.60 17000 17080 17270 17350 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 17059.40 17123 17177 17226 17263 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2879.00 2911 2934 2953 2974 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51638.10 52400 52400 52800 53500 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52704.20 53060 53060 53060 53220 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 152.50 157 156 159 157 157 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 798.10 821 829 837 845 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2193.70 2197 2199 2202 2203 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 293.30 196 287 208 288 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2415.30 2448 2467 2482 2497 2658 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 13016.50 13100 13425 13600 13678 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 572.10 582 581 586 584 592 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 292.50 264 294 271 293 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 211.00 145 165 160 190 170 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 17.00 10 12.15 13 12.08 11 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 194.00 157 160 159 159 159 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 6.00 5 8.81 10 9.57 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 234.00 235 235 235 235 235 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 1923.00 1851 1787 1766 1759 1755 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 177.00 190 193 164 194 150 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 153156.00 153552 154021 154437 154808 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7056.00 6906 6677 6503 6369 5943 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.30 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.2 0.21 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.34 34.34 34.34 34.34 34.34 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90 62.88 62.88 62.89 62.89 62.89 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.01 0.97 1.18 1.07 1.05 0.14 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.40 9.22 8.98 8.81 8.68 8.24 percent [+]
Productivity 107.30 106 108 108 108 110 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 111.90 112 113 113 113 117 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5684.00 5741 5699 5711 5728 5751 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5743.00 5759 5779 5798 5814 5875 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 36602.00 38316 38998 37895 38272 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 21.96 22.25 22.45 22.72 22.79 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.76 21.11 21.36 21.61 21.72 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 5.53 5.44 5.45 5.45 5.45 5.45 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.80 0.63 0.59 0.66 0.63 0.63 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 3.50 0.6 0.7 1 2.81 0.5 Index Points [+]
Population 324.30 325 325 326 326 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1827 1827 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 3956 3950 3968 4006 3973 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1496.20 1633 1641 1640 1640 1640 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1407.76 1380 1373 1369 1366 1362 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27233.00 27344 27367 27365 27365 27365 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 125987.00 126434 127005 127471 127858 129521 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 60.20 60.29 60.4 60.49 60.56 60.77 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.1 2.1 2 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 244.16 245 246 247 248 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 251.17 252 253 254 255 267 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.90 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 112.85 113 114 115 115 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 112.70 112 113 114 115 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.50 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 122.30 123 123 123 123 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 123.40 124 124 124 123 124 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.50 0.5 1 1.2 1.2 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 112.01 112 112 114 113 121 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.79 2.84 2.81 2.81 2.81 2.81 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 249.51 250 252 253 255 270 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 112.51 113 113 114 114 120 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 202.39 199 198 197 196 194 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.20 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3821650.00 3841000 3844790 3848308 3848200 3848978 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3434.00 3476 3530 3584 3639 4196 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13435.60 13550 13725 13901 14078 16002 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 120026.00 120134 120225 120217 120213 120211 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4433990.00 4434442 4432930 4432770 4432739 4432732 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16196800.00 16185285 16180336 16178577 16178005 16177728 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2093.47 2094 2097 2098 2100 2106 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 198.49 200 201 201 201 201 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 24385.00 -15127 -14012 -14474 -14429 -14428 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -43706.00 -44200 -45000 -46700 -50000 -59000 USD Million [+]
Exports 190986.00 193800 194000 194300 195000 200000 USD Million [+]
Imports 234692.00 238000 239000 241000 245000 259000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -112382.00 -109000 -111000 -112000 -110722 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.7 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -8109652.00 -8121829 -8186204 -8181299 -8092926 -8131045 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.25 99.09 99.24 99.34 99.45 99.42 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -701.00 -14452 359 1938 2139 -24.99 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 22963.00 32283 32177 26992 29280 29549 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 59767.00 27830 24361 24933 24968 24932 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9031.00 8930 8930 9180 8998 9150 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourism Revenues 20828.00 20894 20845 20881 20855 20866 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 7958601.00 7693201 7711007 7718037 7715267 7714597 [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 4.79 4.61 4.96 4.97 5.03 [+]
Weapons Sales 10484.00 10854 10407 9959 9785 9661 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 104.17 105 105 105 108 112 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -3.7 -7.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 182428.00 -169116 -78782 -64707 -71765 -74890 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2899.30 2897 2897 2896 2893 2881 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 455605.00 215101 257103 272101 273976 274190 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19846129.00 19974227 20132177 20288654 20442865 22005706 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 273177.00 341495 332124 332562 333758 334648 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 595472.10 657037 659261 651485 702472 771394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00 34.42 32.82 31.22 31.13 30.87 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 12026.00 12168 12201 12218 12226 12229 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 54.80 53.1 52.4 51.5 52 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.50 53.7 53.8 53 52.7 53 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.50 57.3 57.5 57.07 57.2 57.04 percent [+]
Services PMI 54.00 53.6 52.4 52.7 52.9 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 53.90 53.8 53.8 52 52.4 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.20 1.5 2 3 2.4 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.00 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.70 1.8 2.1 2 2.73 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.70 75.8 75.9 76 77.67 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -0.70 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.80 0.45 0.28 0.34 0.32 0.31 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.40 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.23 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.00 0.17 0.23 0.26 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 478185.00 483180 485033 485742 486016 486188 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 0.50 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.28 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.20 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.22 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 4.30 69.32 33.6 70.07 29.83 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.30 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.01 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 23591.00 23120 22994 22746 22761 22830 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1571.20 1599 1574 1593 1579 1585 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104.50 106 101 95 94 97 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 38.80 16 12 9 8 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1.00 10 6 4 3 3 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 55.80 55.08 55.78 55.75 55.65 55.7 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index -1.00 12 9 8 7 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 16.80 15 14.3 14 15 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.49 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.2 0.05 [+]
Chicago Pmi 58.30 57.4 55 54 53 58.12 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.88 19 15 14 18 18.7 Million [+]
Car Production 3.54 3.92 3.86 3.61 3.89 4.04 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 569.19 588 560 543 547 545 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -4.43 1.5 1 -0.5 0.23 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 75.00 79.67 82.41 82.51 82.52 82.52 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -787.00 20.44 22.53 22.53 22.53 22.53 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 181.22 180 178 176 174 165 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 54.03 52.71 52.53 53.49 54.76 [+]
Steel Production 6717.00 6320 6400 6470 6910 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 7.30 7.68 8.48 2 8.82 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 7 7 6 6 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.70 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.73 5.69 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.10 95.3 95 94 94 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.40 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.29 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.50 3 3.1 4.79 4.78 4.78 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.31 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11688.50 11745 11796 11832 11877 12209 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14428.50 14539 14650 14762 14873 16091 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.00 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.32 0.32 0.6 0.32 0.32 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.90 5.64 5.7 5.69 5.69 5.69 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 16.43 16.75 16.92 16.96 16.96 16.96 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9177.64 9237 9310 9381 9447 9982 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.00 4 3.94 4.25 3.96 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 51.30 50.95 50.34 50.11 50.03 49.97 [+]
Redbook Index 2.00 1.97 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.64 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.40 79.5 79.5 80 80.26 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4223.00 4978 4810 4848 4840 4842 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Building Permits 1228.00 1178 1150 1141 1231 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1172.00 1230 1190 1160 1189 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 569.00 510 530 570 584 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales 0.80 0.65 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.75 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5570.00 4800 5000 5300 5561 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -0.20 0.9 2 1.9 1.5 0.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.60 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.54 0.54 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 70.00 69 62 56 60 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 4.40 0.42 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.60 63.29 63.59 63.72 63.63 63.73 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 193.49 193 194 194 195 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 35 35 32 30 26 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.12 20.92 20.95 20.97 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.64 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]