This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.

Overview	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	3.50	2.8	2.9	2.8	2.7	2	percent
Unemployment Rate	3.70	3.7	3.8	3.8	3.7	4.5	percent
Inflation Rate	2.50	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.4	2.3	percent
Interest Rate	2.25	2.5	2.5	2.75	3	3.5	percent
Balance of Trade	-54019.00	-45000	-52000	-44000	-56000	-53000	USD Million
Government Debt to GDP	105.40	108	108	108	108	109	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Currency	96.91	96.06	96.48	96.91	97.33	99.06
Stock Market	25303.19 points	26407	26103	25804	25507	24354
Government Bond 10Y	3.13 percent	3.1	3.15	3.21	3.26	3.47

GDP	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	3.50 percent	2.8	2.9	2.8	2.7	2
GDP Annual Growth Rate	3.00 percent	2.9	2.5	2.8	2.7	1.7
GDP	19390.60 USD Billion	19800	20220	20220	20220	20700
GDP Constant Prices	18671.50 USD Billion	18752	18782	19030	19176	19548
Gross National Product	18766.40 USD Billion	17976	17991	19292	19273	18738
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	3320.14 USD Billion	3302	3353	3415	3410	3442
GDP per capita	53128.54 USD	53500	54100	54100	54100	54800
GDP per capita PPP	54225.45 USD	55220	56900	56900	56900	58500
GDP From Agriculture	216.90 USD Billion	156	154	154	154	163
GDP From Construction	641.40 USD Billion	680	684	686	685	708
GDP From Manufacturing	2125.80 USD Billion	2041	2050	2056	2054	2128
GDP From Mining	429.80 USD Billion	399	402	403	403	416
GDP From Public Administration	2175.50 USD Billion	2147	2136	2142	2140	2238
GDP From Services	12700.80 USD Billion	12072	12080	12116	12104	12584
GDP From Transport	542.40 USD Billion	492	498	499	499	513
GDP From Utilities	284.30 USD Billion	292	286	286	286	304

LABOUR	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	3.70 percent	3.7	3.8	3.8	3.7	4.5
Non Farm Payrolls	250.00 Thousand	165	193	182	179	170
Government Payrolls	4.00 Thousand	12	1	15	6.87	11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private	246.00 Thousand	160	188	178	166	161
Manufacturing Payrolls	32.00 Thousand	10	12	1	6	-2
Initial Jobless Claims	216.00 Thousand	210	215	220	230	240
Continuing Jobless Claims	1676.00 Thousand	1600	1626	1610	1630	1700
ADP Employment Change	227.00 Thousand	160	220	219	219	150
Employed Persons	156562.00 Thousand	155964	156189	156389	156566	154000
Unemployed Persons	6075.00 Thousand	5970	5848	5756	5682	5417
Average Hourly Earnings	0.20 percent	0.28	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.3
Average Weekly Hours	34.50 Hours	34.4	34.5	34.5	34.5	34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate	62.90 percent	62.8	62.7	62.7	62.7	62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate	0.84 percent	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.1
Youth Unemployment Rate	8.30 percent	8.3	8.2	8.1	8	7.7
Productivity	105.67 Index Points	106	106	107	107	109
Labour Costs	109.66 Index Points	110	110	111	111	113
Job Vacancies	7070.00 Thousand	5450	5900	6732	6300	5200
Job Offers	7009.00 Thousand	5818	6300	6700	6600	5800
Challenger Job Cuts	75644.00 Persons	33300	55080	36000	42000	31000
Wages	22.89 USD/Hour	23.25	23.65	24.05	24.55	25.9
Wages in Manufacturing	21.68 USD/Hour	21.65	21.9	21.45	21.75	22.4
Wage Growth	4.79 percent	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8
Minimum Wages	7.25 USD/Hour	7.25	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5
Employment Cost Index	0.80 percent	0.6	0.8	0.6	0.7	0.6
Population	325.72 Million	328	329	329	330	335
Retirement Age Women	66.00	66	66	66	66	66
Retirement Age Men	66.00	66	66	66	66	66
Wages Low Skilled	1960.00 USD/Month	2150	2150	2150	2150	2200
Wages High Skilled	4520.00 USD/Month	4500	4500	4550	4550	4550
Employment Rate	60.60 percent	60.6	60.7	60.8	60.8	61
Full Time Employment	129212.00 Thousand	129484	129861	130179	130449	131628
Living Wage Family	2380.00 USD/Month	2300	2380	2380	2380	2380
Living Wage Individual	1660.00 USD/Month	1555	1583	1598	1612	1569
Part Time Employment	27297.00 Thousand	27002	26990	26700	26800	2750

PRICES	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Inflation Rate	2.50 percent	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.4	2.3
Inflation Rate Mom	0.30 percent	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI	252.83 Index Points	254	255	257	258	266
Core Consumer Prices	258.94 Index Points	260	262	263	264	272
Core Inflation Rate	2.10 percent	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.2
GDP Deflator	110.65 Index Points	116	116	117	113	124
Producer Prices	117.20 Index Points	118	119	120	120	125
Producer Prices Change	2.90 percent	3	2.8	3.1	3.2	3.2
Export Prices	127.80 Index Points	128	128	128	128	119
Import Prices	128.40 Index Points	129	129	129	129	129
Food Inflation	1.20 percent	1.6	1.5	1.7	1.9	2.1
Core Pce Price Index	110.37 Index Points	111	111	112	112	120
Core Producer Prices	116.10 Index Points	116	117	118	118	123
CPI Housing Utilities	260.27 Index Points	260	262	265	266	273
CPI Transportation	213.48 Index Points	208	213	220	218	218
Pce Price Index	108.60 Index Points	117	109	110	110	121
Inflation Expectations	3.00 percent	2.9	3.1	3.1	3	3.2

MONEY	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Interest Rate	2.25 percent	2.5	2.5	2.75	3	3.5
Interbank Rate	2.63 percent	2.62	2.62	2.87	3.12	3.62
Money Supply M0	3520960.00 USD Million	3494439	3478880	3475540	3474523	3474254
Money Supply M1	3731.10 USD Billion	3782	3831	3879	3926	4324
Money Supply M2	14253.70 USD Billion	14405	14561	14718	14875	16266
Foreign Exchange Reserves	123729.00 USD Million	123171	123186	123197	123199	123199
Central Bank Balance Sheet	4102109.00 USD Million	4358306	4352601	4350218	4036945	4200000
Banks Balance Sheet	16821077.00 USD Million	16836988	16851465	16855326	16856348	16856716
Loans to Private Sector	2236.67 USD Billion	2250	2272	2289	2305	2373
Private Debt to GDP	202.80 percent	198	195	195	205	191
Foreign Bond Investment	63131.00 USD Million	7354	11102	11072	11121	11116

TRADE	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-54019.00 USD Million	-45000	-52000	-44000	-56000	-53000
Exports	212565.00 USD Million	215000	207000	213000	213000	206000
Imports	266584.00 USD Million	260000	259000	257000	269000	259000
Current Account	-101460.00 USD Million	-102000	-109000	-103000	-101000	-125000
Current Account to GDP	-2.40 percent	-2.3	-2.2	-2.2	-2.2	-2.5
External Debt	19306582.00 USD Million	19639250	19814326	19990976	20168568	21763606
Terms of Trade	106.98 Index Points	99.55	99.45	99.65	99.74	92.43
Capital Flows	108188.00 USD Million	90963	80725	74376	72936	75040
Foreign Direct Investment	47253.00 USD Million	47576	46773	47180	47032	47123
Net Long Term Tic Flows	131823.00 USD Million	60337	53271	52948	53163	53164
Gold Reserves	8133.46 Tonnes	8134	8133	8133	8133	8134
Crude Oil Production	11346.00 BBL/D/1K	12000	12500	12730	12800	12500
Terrorism Index	5.43	5.2	5.6	5.6	5.6	5.8
Tourism Revenues	21283.00 USD Million	21274	21254	21269	21259	21263
Tourist Arrivals	6734056.00	6791500	6764000	6755000	6759100	6760100
Weapons Sales	12394.00 USD Million	12283	12241	12200	12158	11141

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	105.40 percent	108	108	108	108	109
Government Budget	-3.50 percent of GDP	-5	-5	-5	-5	-6
Government Budget Value	-100000.00 USD Million	-33824	-45667	-58601	-62101	-62490
Government Spending	3197.46 USD Billion	3231	3231	3261	3284	3368
Government Revenues	252692.00 USD Million	293184	279794	276893	276223	276053
Government Debt	21702370.00 USD Million	21886629	22155110	22426134	22694427	24997174
Fiscal Expenditure	353183.00 USD Million	298094	325461	335494	338324	338542
Asylum Applications	6901.00 Persons	6966	6975	6983	6984	6982
Military Expenditure	597177.90 USD Million	752325	599577	599947	600317	771394
Government Spending To GDP	37.70 percent	37.8	37.8	37.8	37.8	37.8

BUSINESS	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Business Confidence	57.70 Index Points	56	53	55	57	52
Manufacturing PMI	55.70	53	52.1	52.8	53.2	51
Non Manufacturing PMI	60.30	54.6	54	54.2	56	52
Services PMI	54.80 Index Points	53.4	53.1	54	55.3	54.8
Composite Pmi	54.90 Index Points	53.3	55.2	55.4	54.2	55.1
Industrial Production	5.10 percent	3	2.9	3	2.6	1.1
Industrial Production Mom	0.30 percent	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.2
Manufacturing Production	3.50 percent	2.1	1.8	5.01	5.15	1.9
Capacity Utilization	78.10 percent	78.3	78.5	78.6	78.52	78
Durable Goods Orders	0.80 percent	2.5	-1.5	2.2	1.5	2.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense	-0.60 percent	2	-0.8	1.8	1.2	1.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation	0.10 percent	0.7	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation	0.40 percent	0.8	0.3	1.2	0.5	1
Factory Orders	0.70 percent	1.5	-0.9	2.2	1.8	0.8
New Orders	515334.00 USD Million	519608	521513	522309	522632	522844
Business Inventories	0.30 percent	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.2
Changes in Inventories	76.33 USD Billion	69	52.68	74.01	47.79	75
Wholesale Inventories	0.40 percent	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.55	0.2
Bankruptcies	22103.00 Companies	21769	21569	21575	21436	21498
Corporate Profits	2007.53 USD Billion	2058	2074	2088	2102	2219
NFIB Business Optimism Index	107.40 Index Points	105	107	105	102	97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	12.90 Index Points	21	25	9.41	10	16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	15.00 Index Points	5	10	11	7	3
Ism New York Index	69.80 percent	55	56	53.9	60	55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	23.30 Index Points	21	19	17	22	10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	29.40 Index Points	27.9	20.1	28.6	29.16	12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	0.17	0.9	0.7	0.25	0.23	0.05
Chicago Pmi	58.40 Index Points	59.1	61	58	56	56
Total Vehicle Sales	17.57 Million	17.4	16.9	17	18	17.3
Car Production	2.78 Million Units	2.97	3.1	3.2	3.1	3.54
Car Registrations	443.14 Thousand	466	484	469	463	471
Crude Oil Stocks Change	10.27 BBL/1Million	-2	2.5	4.5	3.8	2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change	-1411.00 Thousand Barrels	1000	2200	-1600	-1200	2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change	39.00 Billion cf	-180	-55	75	55	-200
Leading Economic Index	124.26 Index Points	125	126	127	128	134
Internet Speed	18747.58 KBps	23553	24392	24867	25327	29875
IP Addresses	128949703.00 IP	129684171	129654649	129670238	129654406	129691461
Crude Oil Rigs	886.00	903	917	921	923	923
API Crude Oil Stock Change	8.79 BBL/1Million	6.2	4.8	-3.2	5.2	2
Steel Production	7251.00 Thousand Tonnes	6870	7352	7279	7285	7150
Competitiveness Index	85.64 Points	86.14	86.14	86.14	86.14	88.64
Competitiveness Rank	1.00	1	1	1	1	1
Corruption Index	75.00 Points	75	75	75	75	75
Corruption Rank	16.00	16	16	16	16	16
Ease of Doing Business	8.00	6	7	8	8	6
Mining Production	13.40 percent	11	9	11	13.89	4

CONSUMER	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	98.30 Index Points	93	95	96	97	86.7
Retail Sales MoM	0.80 percent	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	4.60 percent	4	4.2	4	5.2	4
Retail Sales Ex Autos	0.70 percent	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.7	0.4
Consumer Spending	12968.54 USD Billion	13075	13041	13202	13319	13630
Disposable Personal Income	15650.96 USD Billion	15674	15676	15673	15670	15637
Personal Spending	0.40 percent	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.35	0.5
Personal Income	0.20 percent	0.4	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.3
Personal Savings	6.20 percent	6.6	6.7	6.8	7	5.2
Consumer Credit	10.92 USD Billion	15.1	13	14	10.5	8
Private Sector Credit	9446.76 USD Billion	9487	9537	9586	9632	9952
Bank Lending Rate	5.25 percent	5.25	5.25	5.5	5.75	6.25
Economic Optimism Index	56.40	52.3	52	51.3	53.9	50
Redbook Index	6.10 percent	5.8	5.2	4.8	4	4
Chain Store Sales	3979.00 USD Million	9100	4200	4000	4050	9200
Gasoline Prices	0.74 USD/Liter	0.73	0.71	0.7	0.69	0.64
Households Debt To GDP	77.30 percent of GDP	77.5	78	78	78	79

HOUSING	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Building Permits	1241.00 Thousand	1230	1320	1202	1192	1315
Housing Starts	1201.00 Thousand units	1330	1300	1195	1190	1280
New Home Sales	553.00 Thousand	600	615	635	595	590
Pending Home Sales	-1.00 percent	0.1	1.1	1.3	-1.4	1.2
Existing Home Sales	5150.00 Thousand	5600	5500	5196	5197	5000
Construction Spending	0.00 percent	1	0.4	-0.3	0.8	0.4
Housing Index	0.30 percent	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index	68.00	68	66	65.3	65	53
Mortgage Rate	5.17 percent	5.17	5.17	5.42	5.67	6.17
Mortgage Applications	-3.20 percent	1.2	3.4	-0.8	3.5	0.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index	213.72 Index Points	213	215	218	221	230
Home Ownership Rate	64.40 percent	64.5	64.6	65	64.8	64.5

TAXES	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	21.00 percent	21	21	21	21	21
Personal Income Tax Rate	37.00 percent	37	37	37	37	35
Sales Tax Rate	0.00 percent	0	0	0	0	0
Social Security Rate	15.30 percent	15.3	15.3	15.3	15.3	15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies	7.65 percent	7.65	7.65	7.65	7.65	7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees	7.65 percent	7.65	7.65	7.65	7.65	7.65

CLIMATE	Actual	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	Q3/19	2020
Temperature	-1.42 celsius	3.01	-1.15	18.73	13.63	8.8
Precipitation	75.78 mm	48.58	46.48	56.22	56.22	55.37

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United States - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

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