United States | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

After growing the most since 2015 in the second quarter of 2017, we expect the US economy to slow down in Q3 due to effects of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. The expansion is likely to gain speed in Q4, as rebuilding activity takes place, and continue throughout 2018. Consumer spending will continue to benefit from employment gains, stronger wage growth and expected personal tax cuts. Also, corporate income taxes are likely to bring further improvement in investment activity and growing external demand and abetting effects of dollar appreciation should boost exports. Lastly, as inflation remains close to its 2 percent target and labour situation continues to improve, the Fed funds rate is projected to rise gradually. This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.10 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.6 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.20 2 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -42395.00 -46700 -50000 -49300 -50500 -59000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 108 108 108 109 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Stock Market 23163.04 22500 22300 22100 21800 19300 points [+]
Currency 93.43 95.03 95.97 96.91 97.85 108 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.36 2.41 2.44 2.46 2.49 2.75 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.10 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.6 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18569.10 19200 19800 19800 19800 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 17031.10 17270 17350 17490 17600 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 17198.00 17321 17370 17409 17440 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2898.50 2917 2917 2912 2903 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 52194.90 52800 53500 53500 53500 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53272.50 53060 53220 53220 53220 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 149.50 150 151 152 152 156 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 810.40 810 803 794 783 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2208.50 2205 2200 2195 2190 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 327.00 208 349 346 343 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2439.40 2488 2501 2513 2524 2567 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 13092.20 13600 13429 13491 13543 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 574.50 575 574 573 572 559 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 288.00 271 287 286 286 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.20 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls -33.00 160 190 170 145 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private -40.00 59.11 71.96 79 84.69 106 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 7.00 13 13.63 13.59 13.59 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls -1.00 10 9.57 11.62 -11.48 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 222.00 246 257 267 276 330 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 1888.00 1909 1940 1970 2000 2226 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 135.00 164 124 114 104 150 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 6801.00 6749 6772 6836 6918 7593 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 154345.00 154929 155234 155375 155430 154000 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.50 0.31 0.24 0.21 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.38 34.38 34.37 34.37 34.34 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.10 63.08 63.08 63.09 63.1 63.19 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.2 1.4 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.10 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 10.2 percent [+]
Productivity 108.08 108 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 108.81 109 109 109 109 109 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 6200.00 6281 6133 5981 5836 4914 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 6082.00 6137 6073 6016 5964 5564 Thousand [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 32346.00 41467 48298 53186 56704 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 22.23 22.52 22.79 22.87 23.35 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 2.95 3.58 3.78 3.96 4.12 4.94 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.96 21.32 21.64 21.76 21.87 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.50 0.66 0.62 0.62 0.66 0.71 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.50 2 1.7 0.9 -0.2 0.5 Index Points [+]
Population 324.30 326 328 328 328 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1668 1663 1660 1657 1650 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 3968 4006 4053 4098 3973 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1496.20 1476 1475 1474 1474 1473 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1407.76 1369 1366 1365 1364 1362 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27650.00 27591 27585 27576 27568 27490 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 126690.00 127095 127285 127350 127354 127011 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 60.40 60.5 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.7 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20 2 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 246.37 248 249 249 250 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 252.86 254 255 256 257 261 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.8 1.9 2 2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 113.03 115 114 114 115 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 113.40 114 115 116 118 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.60 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.85 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 124.00 125 125 125 125 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 123.80 124 124 123 123 120 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.20 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 112.62 114 113 113 113 121 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.54 2.51 2.64 2.68 2.71 2.82 percent [+]
Core Pce Price Index 113.20 114 114 114 114 120 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 252.98 254 254 254 254 253 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 204.78 203 205 206 206 204 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 1.75 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.36 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3874483.00 3860232 3850425 3843807 3837624 3782638 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3553.10 3585 3601 3610 3614 3603 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13692.40 13824 13930 14016 14085 14296 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 124516.00 124505 123985 123387 122780 117647 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4440435.00 4437974 4426050 4414162 4402337 4298761 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16313900.00 16294075 16292840 16291606 16290371 16279174 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2125.34 2150 2169 2184 2195 2194 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 199.60 199 199 198 198 195 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 11494.00 11797 10992 10873 10786 10552 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -42395.00 -46700 -50000 -49300 -50500 -59000 USD Million [+]
Exports 195320.00 194300 195000 196200 196500 200000 USD Million [+]
Imports 237715.00 241000 245000 245500 247000 259000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -123137.00 -117000 -118200 -118000 -120923 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -7934901.00 -7777101 -7658935 -7549856 -7459765 -6701967 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.01 99.65 99.85 100 100 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 124951.00 17188 17201 18807 20223 22576 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 46199.00 41576 41172 42108 41918 39710 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 1304.00 27353 25093 25713 25544 24428 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8134 8134 8135 8135 8135 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9238.00 9180 9183 9167 9151 9150 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourism Revenues 20828.00 20663 20617 20571 20525 20128 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6507601.00 5427600 5258600 5113700 4989500 4429100 [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 5.16 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.36 [+]
Weapons Sales 9894.00 9406 9412 9417 9423 9994 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 108 108 108 109 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -7.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -107689.00 -60477 -51723 -44274 -38632 -28064 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2895.20 2891 2889 2888 2886 2868 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 226311.00 262264 244964 236607 232281 201224 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 20244900.00 20596971 20805030 20917727 20975792 20973433 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 334000.00 355124 344682 339703 337158 330419 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 606232.60 651485 702472 703459 589945 771394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00 31.14 31.23 31.32 31.41 35 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 12026.00 11947 11892 11836 11780 11305 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Services PMI 55.30 53.7 52.9 53 54.6 54.8 Index Points [+]
Business Confidence 60.80 55 54 54.3 52 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.10 53 52.7 52.9 53.6 53 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.80 58 55.2 56 54 54.88 percent [+]
Composite Pmi 54.80 54 52.4 52.7 55 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.60 3 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.00 2 1.7 1.7 2 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.00 76 76.4 76.6 76.68 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 1.70 -1.2 0.39 0.33 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 2.20 0.82 0.43 0.33 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.20 0.1 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.40 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 471684.00 470018 468286 466774 465295 452911 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.20 -0.5 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.70 -0.8 0.39 0.2 0.32 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 5.50 65.2 14 7.5 19.5 75 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.90 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.43 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 23443.00 24372 25248 26281 27410 37180 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1643.80 1636 1634 1631 1628 1605 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 103.00 106 104 100 102 97 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 30.20 25 19 12 11 5 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 49.70 54.39 54.83 55.11 55.28 55.53 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 21.30 14 15 14.5 11.65 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.31 0.05 0.2 0.2 -0.11 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 27.90 19 15 10 13 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 19.00 14 15 11 10 3 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 65.20 54 53 53.5 57.1 54.43 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 18.57 14 18 18 17.03 18.7 Million [+]
Car Production 3.02 3.61 3.89 3.89 3.52 4.04 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 501.98 593 631 655 668 683 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -5.73 -0.5 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 51.00 25.14 10.02 4.4 2.32 1.09 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 908.00 10.49 7.82 7.81 7.81 7.81 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 182.50 184 184 185 186 189 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 52.53 53.49 54.78 55.54 54.76 [+]
Steel Production 7064.00 6470 7314 7319 7317 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 9.80 2 7 6.4 3.21 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 6 6 7 6 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.85 5.7 5.73 5.73 5.77 5.86 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 2.00 3 3 3 2 3 [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 16 16 16 18 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM 1.60 0.2 0.36 0.35 0.35 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Confidence 101.10 94 94 94.5 93 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 4.40 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.1 4 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 1.00 0.4 0.36 0.4 0.35 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11853.00 11989 12057 12118 12175 12541 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14417.40 14408 14407 14405 14403 14384 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.10 0.4 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.20 0.6 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 percent [+]
Personal Savings 3.60 3.97 4.15 4.24 4.34 5.05 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 9369.63 9441 9479 9497 9505 9477 USD Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 13.10 11.27 10.26 9.46 8.93 7.85 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.25 4.15 4.15 4.25 4.6 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 50.30 50.55 50.31 50.12 49.97 49.55 [+]
Redbook Index 3.60 3.09 2.74 2.55 2.44 2.3 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.68 0.63 0.57 0.56 0.56 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 78.70 80 80.2 80.3 77.14 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4100.00 5966 6343 6464 6503 6529 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Building Permits 1215.00 1141 1231 1236 1242 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1127.00 1160 1100 1090 1170 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 560.00 570 610 560 584 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales -2.60 3 -0.6 0.5 0.51 1.2 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5350.00 5300 5220 5190 5200 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 0.50 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.4 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 68.00 62 60 61 59 53 [+]
Housing Index 0.20 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.14 4.18 4.23 4.28 4.32 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 3.60 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.70 63.72 63.74 63.75 63.77 63.88 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 201.99 197 198 199 203 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 35.00 35 20 20 20 20 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.63 13.62 13.61 13.6 13.5 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]