United States | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

In 2017, a resilient household spending and inventory building are expected to support growth in the United States. However, net trade is likely to drag the expansion down amid a strong dollar as the Fed continues to tighten. In addition, business sentiment is expected to soften and stocks to pull back on raising concerns over the delivery of promised fiscal stimulus. This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.00 2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2 2.2 2.3 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 3 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -43689.00 -45000 -46700 -50000 -49300 -59000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 106 108 108 109 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Stock Market 22296.32 21300 21000 20800 20600 18300 points [+]
Currency 93.01 93.06 93.98 94.9 95.83 106 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.23 2.37 2.4 2.42 2.44 2.7 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 3.00 2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18569.10 19200 19200 19800 19800 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 17030.00 17080 17270 17350 17490 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 17199.40 17187 17231 17264 17296 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2901.00 2907 2919 2932 2940 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 52194.90 52400 52800 53500 53500 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53272.50 53060 53060 53220 53220 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 149.50 151 155 153 154 153 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 810.40 830 838 846 853 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2208.50 2216 2220 2223 2225 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 327.00 350 208 349 346 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2439.40 2480 2497 2517 2536 2710 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 13092.20 13323 13600 13518 13616 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 574.50 583 588 587 592 595 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 288.00 291 271 289 290 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 156.00 165 160 190 170 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 165.00 180 164 154 146 115 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls -9.00 11.03 13 11.04 11.12 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 36.00 8.81 10 9.57 11.62 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 259.00 277 285 293 300 345 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 1980.00 1949 1980 2009 2038 2280 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 237.00 186 164 191 191 150 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 7132.00 6876 6787 6716 6661 6492 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 153439.00 153767 154157 154498 154801 154000 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.10 0 0.2 0.18 0.2 0.19 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.45 34.42 34.41 34.4 34.35 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90 62.9 62.92 62.93 62.94 63.04 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.08 1.18 1.07 1.05 1.05 1.5 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90 9 9.1 9.2 9.3 10.2 percent [+]
Productivity 108.08 108 108 108 108 108 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 108.81 109 109 109 109 109 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 6502.00 6092 5947 5788 5637 4650 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 6170.00 6088 5993 5918 5858 5408 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 33825.00 32400 32267 32216 32149 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 22.12 22.45 22.72 22.79 22.87 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 2.95 3.05 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.85 21.36 21.61 21.72 21.79 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.50 0.56 0.63 0.57 0.59 0.59 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.50 2.7 2 1.7 1.9 0.5 Index Points [+]
Population 324.30 326 326 328 328 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1676 1668 1663 1660 1650 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 3950 3968 4006 4053 3973 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1496.20 1490 1488 1487 1486 1482 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1407.76 1373 1369 1366 1365 1362 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27569.00 27540 27508 27510 27510 27510 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 125755.00 125792 125689 125626 125576 125156 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 60.10 60.23 60.3 60.35 60.39 60.51 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2 2 2.2 2.3 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 245.03 244 244 244 244 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 252.54 253 254 255 256 265 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.8 1.8 1.9 2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 113.02 113 115 114 114 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 112.90 113 114 115 116 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.40 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 122.90 122 122 122 122 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 123.00 122 122 122 122 122 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.10 1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 112.38 112 114 113 113 121 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.49 2.42 2.51 2.64 2.68 2.82 percent [+]
Core Pce Price Index 113.08 113 114 114 114 120 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 252.62 253 255 257 258 274 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 200.65 203 203 205 206 204 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 3 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.33 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3910028.00 3797662 3799175 3794286 3788247 3724874 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3560.10 3566 3627 3688 3748 4316 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13647.00 13673 13839 14008 14177 15856 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 123690.00 122279 122305 122311 122313 122313 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4440435.00 4459696 4466364 4467559 4467773 4467819 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16313900.00 16331420 16353705 16361247 16363809 16365128 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2108.03 2115 2125 2134 2141 2178 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 199.60 199 199 199 199 198 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -490.00 -6745 -4598 -4604 -4584 -4585 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -43689.00 -45000 -46700 -50000 -49300 -59000 USD Million [+]
Exports 194381.00 194000 194300 195000 196200 200000 USD Million [+]
Imports 238071.00 239000 241000 245000 245500 259000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -123137.00 -119000 -117000 -118200 -118000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.8 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -8217356.00 -8091195 -8072917 -7997614 -8044462 -8042720 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.01 99.32 99.65 99.85 100 101 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -7271.00 -4929 6365 8690 10456 12168 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 46199.00 37692 30649 37396 37300 35618 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 1304.00 39048 33690 33699 33780 33757 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9097.00 8930 9180 9159 9159 9150 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourism Revenues 20828.00 20845 20881 20855 20874 20866 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6507601.00 5624323 5427618 5258557 5113728 4429090 [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 4.61 5.16 5.2 5.23 5.03 [+]
Weapons Sales 9894.00 9508 9467 9372 9277 9574 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 106 108 108 109 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.9 -2.9 -3.9 -3.9 -7.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -107689.00 -26922 -47471 -54229 -54768 -55998 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2894.30 2903 2903 2903 2904 2908 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 226311.00 322304 296799 291835 291218 290893 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19844533.00 19843135 19837934 19830825 19822693 19730734 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 334000.00 363866 347070 343446 342993 343269 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 606232.60 659261 651485 702472 703459 771394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00 32.82 31.22 31.13 31.04 30.87 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 12026.00 12201 12218 12226 12228 12229 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Services PMI 55.10 52.4 52.7 52.9 53 54.8 Index Points [+]
Business Confidence 58.80 52.4 51.5 52 52.3 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.00 53.8 53 52.7 52.9 53 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.30 57.5 54.9 57.2 57.3 54.51 percent [+]
Composite Pmi 54.60 53.8 52 52.4 52.7 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 1.50 2 3 2.4 1.9 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.90 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.50 2.1 2 1.7 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.12 75.9 76 76.4 76.6 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -6.80 0.3 -1.2 0.38 0.33 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -7.80 0.28 0.62 0.36 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.50 0.2 0.1 0.19 0.19 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.50 0.25 0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 466360.00 470791 467232 465336 463794 450116 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -3.30 0.4 -0.5 0.32 0.28 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.20 0.1 -0.8 0.15 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 1.80 21.2 65.2 14 7.5 75 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.60 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 23443.00 23547 23480 23666 23672 23784 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1655.60 1571 1589 1576 1584 1581 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 105.30 101 95 94 97 97 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 24.40 9 8 7 9 5 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 56.60 57.16 57.3 57.49 57.52 57.47 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 21.30 14.3 14 15 14.5 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.31 0.09 0.05 0.2 0.2 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 23.80 12 9 8 10 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 19.00 6 14 15 11 3 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 58.90 55 54 53 53.5 54.21 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.14 15 14 18 18 18.7 Million [+]
Car Production 3.02 3.86 3.61 3.89 3.89 4.04 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 501.98 563 543 551 554 549 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 4.59 1 -0.5 0.07 0.07 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 97.00 42.75 16.26 6.49 2.87 0.75 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -2125.00 -1308 3.73 5.05 5.05 5.05 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 182.28 182 183 183 183 185 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 52.71 52.53 53.49 54.78 54.76 [+]
Steel Production 7064.00 6400 6470 6675 6637 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 9.70 10.8 2 7 6.4 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 7 6 6 6 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.70 5.7 5.7 5.71 5.73 5.69 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.3 0.2 0.29 0.29 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Confidence 95.30 95.3 94 94 94.5 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.20 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.7 4 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.20 0.2 0.34 0.35 0.4 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11854.40 11908 11969 12034 12092 12545 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14410.40 14506 14603 14707 14811 15842 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.30 0.3 0.4 0.31 0.31 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.29 0.6 0.29 0.29 0.29 percent [+]
Personal Savings 3.50 4.36 4.19 4.34 4.44 5.19 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 9324.53 9328 9403 9474 9541 10049 USD Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 18.50 13.25 11.38 10.36 9.53 7.87 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.25 4 4.15 4.15 4.25 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 53.40 51.6 52.04 51.46 51.01 49.7 [+]
Redbook Index 4.00 3.45 2.93 2.65 2.49 2.28 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.63 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 78.70 79.5 80 80.2 80.3 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4162.00 4757 4790 4782 4784 4783 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Building Permits 1300.00 1150 1141 1266 1266 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1180.00 1190 1160 1100 1090 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 560.00 550 570 610 560 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales -1.30 -1.9 3 -0.6 0.5 1.2 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5350.00 5290 5300 5220 5190 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -0.60 2 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 64.00 62 56 60 61 53 [+]
Housing Index 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.04 4.07 4.12 4.16 4.21 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications -9.70 0.28 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.70 63.93 64.02 63.97 64.03 64.35 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 201.99 196 197 198 199 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 38.59 38.32 38.06 39.6 35.65 percent [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 38.9 38.9 34 34 28 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.64 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]