United States | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

In 2017, a resilient household spending and inventory building are expected to support growth in the United States. However, net trade is likely to drag the expansion down amid a strong dollar as the Fed continues to tighten. In addition, business sentiment is expected to soften and stocks to pull back on raising concerns over the delivery of promised fiscal stimulus. This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 2.1 2 1.9 2.2 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.8 2.1 2 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -47617.00 -44200 -45000 -46700 -50000 -59000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 106 106 108 109 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 97.29 107 109 112 113 115 [+]
Stock Market 21394.76 21100 20900 20300 20500 17100 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.14 2.18 2.2 2.22 2.25 2.59 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 2.1 2 1.9 2.2 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18036.65 19200 19200 19200 19800 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16861.60 17000 17080 17270 17350 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 17059.40 17123 17177 17226 17263 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2879.00 2911 2934 2953 2974 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 51638.10 52400 52400 52800 53500 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 52704.20 53060 53060 53060 53220 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 152.50 157 156 159 157 157 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 798.10 821 829 837 845 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2193.70 2197 2199 2202 2203 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 293.30 196 287 208 288 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2415.30 2448 2467 2482 2497 2658 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 13016.50 13100 13425 13600 13678 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 572.10 582 581 586 584 592 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 292.50 264 294 271 293 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 138.00 145 165 160 190 170 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls -9.00 10 11.44 13 9.43 11 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 147.00 143 148 148 148 148 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls -1.00 5 8.81 10 9.57 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 241.00 243 242 242 242 242 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 1944.00 1941 1956 1961 1962 1963 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 253.00 230 232 164 234 150 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 152923.00 153107 153370 153632 153868 154000 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 6861.00 6769 6479 6254 6081 5528 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.2 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.19 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.40 34.37 34.39 34.39 34.39 34.4 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70 62.73 62.75 62.75 62.75 62.75 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.01 0.97 1.18 1.07 1.05 0.14 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.80 8.85 8.49 8.25 8.05 7.38 percent [+]
Productivity 107.50 106 108 108 108 111 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 110.04 110 110 111 111 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 6371.00 5938 5869 5886 5927 6007 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 6044.00 5979 6073 6137 6186 6373 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 51692.00 45335 48049 46550 47359 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 22.00 22.25 22.45 22.72 22.79 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.78 21.11 21.36 21.61 21.72 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 3.67 3.64 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.80 0.63 0.59 0.66 0.63 0.63 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 2.30 0.6 0.7 1 1.66 0.5 Index Points [+]
Population 324.30 325 325 326 326 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1827 1827 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 3956 3950 3968 4006 3973 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1496.20 1633 1641 1640 1640 1640 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1407.76 1380 1373 1369 1366 1362 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27366.00 27375 27392 27391 27391 27391 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 125620.00 125821 126123 126391 126615 127554 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 60.00 60.06 60.07 60.1 60.11 60.17 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 1.8 2.1 2 2.2 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 243.85 244 245 246 247 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 251.33 252 253 254 255 266 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 112.85 113 114 115 115 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 112.70 112 113 114 115 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.40 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 121.70 121 121 121 121 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 122.40 122 121 121 121 121 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.90 0.5 1 1.2 1.2 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 112.24 113 113 114 114 121 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.59 2.68 2.72 2.71 2.71 2.71 percent [+]
Cpi Housing Utilities 250.38 251 252 254 255 272 Index Points [+]
Core Pce Price Index 112.70 113 113 114 114 120 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 202.21 199 198 197 196 194 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.30 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3774390.00 3776444 3766360 3764327 3763486 3763282 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3504.20 3520 3591 3658 3724 4409 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13495.50 13556 13733 13911 14089 16024 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 120026.00 120134 120225 120217 120213 120211 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4422270.00 4421568 4408288 4406544 4406221 4406151 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16321100.00 16317014 16390991 16412585 16419772 16423358 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2097.42 2097 2101 2104 2107 2121 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 199.60 200 199 199 199 198 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -22500.00 -15775 -15026 -15458 -15401 -15400 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -47617.00 -44200 -45000 -46700 -50000 -59000 USD Million [+]
Exports 190975.00 193800 194000 194300 195000 200000 USD Million [+]
Imports 238592.00 238000 239000 241000 245000 259000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -116781.00 -109000 -111000 -112000 -118219 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.7 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -8109652.00 -8121829 -8186204 -8181299 -8092926 -8131045 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.25 99.09 99.24 99.34 99.45 99.42 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 65766.00 -11646 3628 6322 6238 3556 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 37539.00 39262 37692 30649 37396 35618 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 1836.00 27562 21492 22356 22582 22537 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9098.00 8930 8930 9180 9086 9150 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourism Revenues 20828.00 20894 20845 20881 20855 20866 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6507601.00 6901950 6926394 6945690 6942028 6939692 [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 4.79 4.61 4.96 4.97 5.03 [+]
Weapons Sales 9894.00 9549 9508 9467 9372 9574 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 106 106 108 109 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -3.7 -7.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -88426.00 -195675 -76308 -61301 -66953 -67436 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2899.30 2897 2897 2896 2893 2881 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 240418.00 200361 258670 275624 277221 277483 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19845942.00 19898738 20047714 20188670 20327757 21729897 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 328844.00 349476 332347 329284 329249 329763 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 606232.60 657037 659261 651485 702472 771394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00 34.42 32.82 31.22 31.13 30.87 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 12026.00 12168 12201 12218 12226 12229 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 54.90 53.1 52.4 51.5 52 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.10 53 53.8 53 52.7 53 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.90 57.3 57.5 56.85 57.2 56.82 percent [+]
Services PMI 53.00 53 52.4 52.7 52.9 54.8 Index Points [+]
Composite Pmi 53.00 53 53.8 52 52.4 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.20 1.5 2 3 2.4 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.00 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.40 1.8 2.1 2 1.89 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.60 75.8 75.9 76 77.22 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -0.70 0.4 0.3 -1.2 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -0.80 0.45 0.28 0.34 0.32 0.31 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.40 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.23 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.10 0.21 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 469030.00 473289 472187 471828 471721 471670 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.20 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 0.28 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories -0.20 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 4.30 69.32 33.6 70.07 29.83 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.50 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.09 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 23591.00 23120 22994 22746 22761 22830 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1571.20 1599 1574 1593 1579 1585 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104.50 104 101 95 94 97 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 27.60 26 12 9 8 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1.00 10 6 4 3 3 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 46.70 51.09 51.01 50.64 51.25 50.99 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 19.80 5 9 8 7 5 Index Points [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 17.20 15 14.3 14 15 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.49 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.2 0.05 [+]
Chicago Pmi 59.40 57.4 55 54 53 58.65 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.66 19 15 14 18 18.7 Million [+]
Car Production 3.48 3.92 3.86 3.61 3.89 4.04 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 524.96 591 560 543 548 547 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -2.45 1.5 1 -0.5 0.21 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 61.00 66.69 66.74 66.74 66.74 66.74 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -578.00 -26.8 27.89 27.89 27.89 27.89 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 181.55 181 180 179 178 173 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 54.03 52.71 52.53 53.49 54.76 [+]
Steel Production 6995.00 6320 6400 6470 6932 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 8.30 8.35 9.25 2 9.66 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 7 7 6 6 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.70 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.73 5.69 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 94.50 2.6 95 94 94 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales MoM -0.30 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.28 0.4 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.80 3 3.1 3.89 3.89 3.89 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.30 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11688.50 11745 11796 11832 11877 12209 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14432.50 14519 14628 14739 14849 16054 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.40 0.1 0.31 0.4 0.31 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.32 0.31 0.6 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.30 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 8.20 15.64 16.05 16.09 16.12 16.12 USD Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 9220.64 9253 9333 9409 9481 10068 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.00 4 3.89 4.25 3.91 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 51.30 50.9 50.53 50.24 50.13 50.05 [+]
Redbook Index 2.80 2.51 2.49 2.49 2.49 2.49 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.50 79.5 79.5 80 79.7 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4254.00 5072 4760 4821 4808 4810 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Building Permits 1168.00 1178 1150 1141 1172 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1092.00 1230 1190 1160 1097 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 610.00 510 530 570 613 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales -3.30 -2.2 -1.88 -1.94 -1.93 -1.93 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5620.00 4800 5000 5300 5624 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending -1.40 0.9 2 1.9 1.5 0.4 percent [+]
Housing Index 0.70 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.61 0.61 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 67.00 70 62 56 60 53 [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.13 4.12 4.12 4.12 4.12 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 0.60 -0.14 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.60 63.29 63.59 63.72 63.63 63.73 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 195.39 193 194 194 195 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 35 35 32 30 26 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.12 20.92 20.95 20.97 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.65 13.64 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]