United States - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.30 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.4 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.90 4 4 3.9 3.8 4.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 2 2 2.25 2.5 3 percent
Balance of Trade -48956.00 -48000 -51000 -55000 -52000 -53000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 93.92
 92.94 93.86 94.78 95.7 97
Stock Market 24715.09
points		 22844 22146 21472 20817 18392
Government Bond 10Y 3.07
percent		 2.92 3.08 3.25 3.43 4.24
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.30
percent		 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.4 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90
percent		 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.6
GDP 18624.48
USD Billion		 19800 19800 19800 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices 17385.83
USD Billion		 17474 17593 17753 17719 18725
Gross National Product 17469.21
USD Billion		 17645 17787 17941 17906 18923
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3007.49
USD Billion		 2974 2989 3054 3048 3221
GDP per capita 52194.90
USD		 53500 53500 53500 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP 53272.50
USD		 53220 53220 53220 53900 54500
GDP From Agriculture 151.70
USD Billion		 157 156 179 156 188
GDP From Construction 660.50
USD Billion		 666 663 679 663 717
GDP From Manufacturing 1983.60
USD Billion		 1999 2007 2011 2007 2121
GDP From Mining 387.40
USD Billion		 379 388 354 388 374
GDP From Public Administration 2086.70
USD Billion		 2138 2139 2186 2139 2306
GDP From Services 11731.40
USD Billion		 11844 11958 12016 11958 12674
GDP From Transport 478.20
USD Billion		 483 484 487 484 514
GDP From Utilities 283.40
USD Billion		 289 284 295 284 311
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.90
percent		 4 4 3.9 3.8 4.2
Non Farm Payrolls 164.00
Thousand		 178 195 165 193 170
Government Payrolls -4.00
Thousand		 1 5 12 1 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 168.00
Thousand		 168 190 160 188 161
Manufacturing Payrolls 24.00
Thousand		 19 12.73 10 4.11 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 222.00
Thousand		 220 220 220 220 220
Continuing Jobless Claims 1707.00
Thousand		 1798 1778 1770 1766 1763
ADP Employment Change 204.00
Thousand		 212 193 160 163 150
Employed Persons 155181.00
Thousand		 156013 156270 156357 156371 154000
Unemployed Persons 6346.00
Thousand 		6846 6938 7023 7102 7758
Average Hourly Earnings 0.10
percent		 0.23 0.21 0.2 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours 34.50
Hours		 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.4 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.80
percent		 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.80
percent		 1.05 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.40
percent		 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3 10
Productivity 109.13
Index Points		 109 109 109 109 109
Labour Costs 109.97
Index Points		 109 109 109 109 108
Job Vacancies 6469.00
Thousand		 5353 5280 5201 5122 4470
Job Offers 6550.00
Thousand		 6010 5976 5923 5869 5396
Challenger Job Cuts 36081.00
Persons		 47622 52487 62300 58521 63500
Wages 22.51
USD/Hour		 22.77 23.35 23.8 24.11 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing 21.49
USD/Hour		 21.74 21.87 22.06 22.38 24.61
Wage Growth 4.45
percent		 4.52 4.51 4.51 4.51 4.51
Minimum Wages 7.25
USD/Hour		 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.80
percent		 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.71
Population 325.72
Million		 328 327 328 328 334
Retirement Age Women 66.00
 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
 66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 2090.00
USD/Month		 2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4290.00
USD/Month		 4500 4500 4500 4550 4550
Employment Rate 60.30
percent		 60.5 60.6 60.6 60.7 60.9
Full Time Employment 127753.00
Thousand		 128283 128393 128387 128338 127556
Living Wage Family 2240.00
USD/Month		 2300 2300 2300 2380 2380
Living Wage Individual 1540.00
USD/Month		 1478 1485 1492 1488 1469
Part Time Employment 27508.00
Thousand		 27434 27418 27403 27388 27230
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent		 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent		 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.12 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 250.01
Index Points		 250 252 254 256 267
Core Consumer Prices 256.45
Index Points		 257 258 260 261 272
Core Inflation Rate 2.10
percent		 2 2 2.1 1.92 2.2
GDP Deflator 114.84
Index Points		 115 115 116 116 124
Producer Prices 115.50
Index Points		 116 117 118 118 125
Producer Prices Change 2.60
percent		 2.9 3 2.8 2.8 3.2
Export Prices 127.00
Index Points		 126 126 126 126 119
Import Prices 126.90
Index Points		 127 126 126 125 120
Food Inflation 1.40
percent		 1.8 2 2.2 2.2 2.1
Core Pce Price Index 114.65
Index Points		 115 116 116 117 120
Core Producer Prices 114.60
Index Points		 115 115 115 115 114
CPI Housing Utilities 256.97
Index Points		 257 259 260 263 274
CPI Transportation 210.73
Index Points		 206 210 208 213 219
Pce Price Index 114.31
Index Points		 115 115 117 116 121
Inflation Expectations 2.98
percent		 2.82 2.83 2.84 2.84 2.87
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent		 2 2 2.25 2.5 3
Interbank Rate 2.33
percent		 2.19 2.19 1.8 2.2 2.5
Money Supply M0 3727183.00
USD Million		 3850941 3842774 3834408 3825823 3732024
Money Supply M1 3659.30
USD Billion		 3617 3610 3604 3600 3557
Money Supply M2 13950.90
USD Billion		 13918 13947 13969 13983 13911
Foreign Exchange Reserves 126510.00
USD Million		 125764 124751 123686 122642 113216
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4317537.00
USD Million		 4363851 4360790 4358306 4352601 4200000
Banks Balance Sheet 16588300.00
USD Million		 16721171 16719418 16717666 16715913 16696528
Loans to Private Sector 2162.81
USD Billion		 2144 2149 2149 2148 2048
Private Debt to GDP 200.20
percent		 198 198 198 195 191
Foreign Bond Investment -4900.00
USD Million		 4735 8118 9951 11141 13321
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -48956.00
USD Million		 -48000 -51000 -55000 -52000 -53000
Exports 208526.00
USD Million		 205000 206000 205000 207000 206000
Imports 257482.00
USD Million		 253000 257000 260000 259000 259000
Current Account -128158.00
USD Million		 -125400 -131000 -132000 -129000 -145000
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent		 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3
External Debt -7845809.00
USD Million		 -7829630 -7891934 -7879571 -7878778 -7873842
Terms of Trade 98.39
Index Points		 99.68 100 101 101 99.13
Capital Flows -38500.00
USD Million		 -6458 11719 20746 25172 28944
Foreign Direct Investment 46429.00
USD Million		 44059 43609 43811 43443 41095
Net Long Term Tic Flows 61838.00
USD Million		 39307 37127 35117 34114 32269
Gold Reserves 8134.00
Tonnes		 8134 8134 8134 8134 8134
Crude Oil Production 10264.00
BBL/D/1K		 10000 9806 9980 9809 11500
Terrorism Index 5.43
 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.62 5.4
Tourism Revenues 20649.00
USD Million		 20221 20178 20135 20092 19643
Tourist Arrivals 6145476.00
 5647000 5459700 5295900 5155300 4474900
Weapons Sales 12394.00
USD Million		 11546 12219 12892 12672 10321
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40
percent		 108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP		 -3.9 -3.9 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value 214255.00
USD Million		 -101819 -110600 -111720 -107570 -132777
Government Spending 2929.98
USD Billion		 2971 2972 3000 2995 3165
Government Revenues 510447.00
USD Million		 236569 227980 228175 229674 193819
Government Debt 21068200.00
USD Million		 21192937 21313078 21368833 21391210 21291006
Fiscal Expenditure 296192.00
USD Million		 338388 338579 338099 337244 326596
Asylum Applications 12145.00
Persons		 10765 10656 10528 10422 9469
Military Expenditure 597177.90
USD Million		 703459 600434 752325 602027 771394
Government Spending To Gdp 37.80
percent		 37.67 37.71 37.75 37.74 37.64
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 57.30
Index Points		 57 55 54 53 52
Manufacturing PMI 56.50
 52.9 53.8 53 52.1 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.80
 56 54 54.6 54 52
Services PMI 54.60
Index Points		 54 53.6 53.4 53.1 54.8
Composite Pmi 54.90
Index Points		 54 53.8 53.3 55.2 55.1
Industrial Production 3.50
percent		 4.9 3.5 3 2.9 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.70
percent		 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.80
percent		 3 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.9
Capacity Utilization 77.99
percent		 78.2 78.6 78.3 78.5 78
Durable Goods Orders 2.60
percent		 0.3 0.32 -0.3 0.32 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 2.80
percent		 0.48 0.37 0.34 0.32 0.32
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.00
percent		 0.2 0.22 0.24 0.24 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30
percent		 0.32 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27
Factory Orders 1.60
percent		 0.31 0.28 0.1 0.28 0.2
New Orders 507690.00
USD Million		 494174 492526 490898 489277 472770
Business Inventories 0.00
percent		 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.2
Changes in Inventories 33.07
USD Billion		 7.5 19.5 69 25.49 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.30
percent		 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2
Bankruptcies 23106.00
Companies		 24211 25056 26033 27097 37893
Corporate Profits 1767.00
USD Billion		 1778 1775 1774 1771 1733
NFIB Business Optimism Index 104.80
Index Points		 105 102 103 104 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 34.40
Index Points		 20 21 21 25 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -3.00
Index Points		 11 20 5 10 3
Ism New York Index 64.30
percent		 59.4 56.8 55 56 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 20.10
Index Points		 20 18 21 19 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 21.80
Index Points		 33.6 31.4 27.9 20.1 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.10
 0.4 0.15 0.9 0.7 0.05
Chicago Pmi 57.60
Index Points		 58.6 59 59.1 61 56
Total Vehicle Sales 17.15
Million		 18 16.98 19.4 16.79 18.7
Car Production 3.08
Million Units		 3.89 3.3 3.97 3.46 4.04
Car Registrations 522.69
Thousand		 580 631 648 647 635
Crude Oil Stocks Change -1.40
BBL/1Million		 0.08 0.07 -2 0.07 0.1
Gasoline Stocks Change -3790.00
Thousand Barrels		 201 -500 1000 22.67 500
Natural Gas Stocks Change 106.00
Billion cf		 -54.85 -54.43 -54.41 -54.41 -54.41
Leading Economic Index 122.63
Index Points		 186 187 187 188 189
Internet Speed 18747.58
KBps		 21703 21935 22058 22112 20025
IP Addresses 128949703.00
IP		 129416277 129348765 129285167 129225110 128764224
Crude Oil Rigs 844.00
 801 802 802 802 802
API Crude Oil Stock Change 4.85
BBL/1Million		 0.35 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.3
Steel Production 7261.00
Thousand Tonnes		 6551 6491 6870 6556 7150
Competitiveness Index 5.85
Points		 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.9 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2.00
 3 2 3 2 3
Corruption Index 75.00
Points		 74 74 74 75 76
Corruption Rank 16.00
 16 17 16 17 16
Ease of Doing Business 6.00
 6 6 6 6 6
Mining Production 10.60
percent		 6.4 6.5 4 7 1
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 98.80
Index Points		 99 97 93 95 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.30
percent		 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.70
percent		 3.7 5.2 4 4.2 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.30
percent		 0.4 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.4
Consumer Spending 12066.82
USD Billion		 12161 12214 12360 12336 13037
Disposable Personal Income 14809.91
USD Billion		 14912 15017 15124 15230 16392
Personal Spending 0.40
percent		 0.33 0.33 0.7 0.33 0.5
Personal Income 0.30
percent		 0.32 0.31 0.4 0.31 0.31
Personal Savings 3.10
percent		 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.2
Consumer Credit 11.60
USD Billion		 11.08 9.95 9.49 9.27 9.1
Private Sector Credit 9246.46
USD Billion		 9059 9038 9024 9015 8943
Bank Lending Rate 4.75
percent		 4.25 4.75 4.75 4.94 5.25
Economic Optimism Index 53.60
 53 52.9 52.3 52 50
Redbook Index 4.90
percent		 2.93 2.67 2.53 2.44 2.33
Chain Store Sales 4245.00
USD Million		 6178 6390 6481 6494 6505
Gasoline Prices 0.75
USD/Liter		 0.63 0.6 0.56 0.53 0.37
Households Debt To Gdp 78.50
percent of GDP		 80.3 78.36 81.2 78.24 82.6
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Building Permits 1352.00
Thousand		 1300 1280 1230 1320 1315
Housing Starts 1287.00
Thousand		 1290 1270 1330 1300 1280
New Home Sales 694.00
Thousand		 590 580 600 615 590
Pending Home Sales -3.00
percent		 -1.1 -3.03 0.1 -3.01 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5600.00
Thousand		 5390 5500 5600 5500 5000
Construction Spending -1.70
percent		 0.8 0.3 1 0.43 0.4
Housing Index 0.60
percent		 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 70.00
 68 70 68 66 53
Mortgage Rate 4.77
percent		 4.69 4.69 4.69 4.69 6.5
Mortgage Applications -2.70
percent		 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43
Case Shiller Home Price Index 206.67
Index Points		 208 210 211 213 230
Home Ownership Rate 64.20
percent		 64.15 64.18 64.19 64.19 64.27
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent		 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00
percent		 37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 12.40
percent		 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.20
percent		 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.20
percent		 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature -1.42
celsius		 13.55 19.24 3.01 -1.15 8.8
Precipitation 75.78
mm		 58.37 63.34 48.58 46.48 55.37