United States - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 2 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.90 3 3 2.9 3 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.00 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade -43053.00 -42100 -55000 -52000 -34000 -53000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 105.40 108 108 108 108 109 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 94.46
 93.86 94.78 95.7 96 96
Stock Market 25058.12
points		 23360 22572 21813 21078 18378
Government Bond 10Y 2.89
percent		 2.98 3.14 3.31 3.48 4.28
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.00
percent		 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.3 2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.80
percent		 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6
GDP 19390.60
USD Billion		 19800 19800 20220 20220 20700
GDP Constant Prices 17371.85
USD Billion		 17593 17753 17806 17806 18725
Gross National Product 17551.88
USD Billion		 17787 17941 17991 17991 18923
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3028.87
USD Billion		 2989 3054 3105 3105 3221
GDP per capita 53128.54
USD		 53500 53500 54100 54100 54800
GDP per capita PPP 54225.45
USD		 55220 55220 56900 56900 58500
GDP From Agriculture 151.70
USD Billion		 156 156 155 155 164
GDP From Construction 660.50
USD Billion		 663 678 677 677 715
GDP From Manufacturing 1983.60
USD Billion		 2007 2037 2033 2033 2149
GDP From Mining 387.40
USD Billion		 388 398 397 397 420
GDP From Public Administration 2086.70
USD Billion		 2139 2143 2139 2139 2260
GDP From Services 11731.40
USD Billion		 11958 12048 12025 12025 12708
GDP From Transport 478.20
USD Billion		 484 491 490 490 518
GDP From Utilities 283.40
USD Billion		 284 291 290 290 307
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent		 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.2
Non Farm Payrolls 213.00
Thousand		 195 165 193 182 170
Government Payrolls 11.00
Thousand		 5 12 1 15 11
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 202.00
Thousand		 190 160 188 178 161
Manufacturing Payrolls 36.00
Thousand		 20 10 12 1 -2
Initial Jobless Claims 207.00
Thousand		 220 220 220 220 220
Continuing Jobless Claims 1751.00
Thousand		 1774 1788 1794 1796 1798
ADP Employment Change 177.00
Thousand		 193 160 181 181 150
Employed Persons 155576.00
Thousand		 156010 156392 156730 157031 154000
Unemployed Persons 6564.00
Thousand 		6454 6468 6469 6471 6475
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20
percent		 0.2 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22
Average Weekly Hours 34.50
Hours		 34.4 34.4 34.51 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90
percent		 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 0.74
percent		 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 8.90
percent		 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.4
Productivity 109.05
Index Points		 110 110 110 110 113
Labour Costs 110.16
Index Points		 111 111 111 112 114
Job Vacancies 6671.00
Thousand		 6687 6674 6717 6732 6717
Job Offers 6638.00
Thousand		 6913 6919 6917 6915 6911
Challenger Job Cuts 37202.00
Persons		 36375 62300 34132 33394 63500
Wages 22.62
USD/Hour		 23.35 23.8 24.11 24.49 25.9
Wages in Manufacturing 21.40
USD/Hour		 21.87 22.06 22.38 22.75 24.61
Wage Growth 4.89
percent		 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6
Minimum Wages 7.25
USD/Hour		 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.5
Employment Cost Index 0.80
percent		 0.66 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.68
Population 325.72
Million		 328 328 329 329 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00
 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
 66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled 2090.00
USD/Month		 2150 2150 2150 2150 2200
Wages High Skilled 4290.00
USD/Month		 4500 4500 4500 4550 4550
Employment Rate 60.40
percent		 60.5 60.5 60.5 60.6 60.7
Full Time Employment 128568.00
Thousand		 129148 129598 129979 130303 131779
Living Wage Family 2240.00
USD/Month		 2300 2300 2380 2380 2380
Living Wage Individual 1540.00
USD/Month		 1485 1492 1488 1484 1469
Part Time Employment 27028.00
Thousand		 27153 27139 27138 27139 27139
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.90
percent		 3 3 2.9 3 2.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent		 0.3 0.3 0.12 0.12 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI 250.86
Index Points		 254 255 257 258 269
Core Consumer Prices 257.31
Index Points		 259 260 262 263 272
Core Inflation Rate 2.30
percent		 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
GDP Deflator 114.90
Index Points		 115 116 116 117 124
Producer Prices 116.40
Index Points		 117 118 119 120 125
Producer Prices Change 3.40
percent		 3 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.2
Export Prices 128.10
Index Points		 129 129 129 129 119
Import Prices 127.70
Index Points		 127 126 126 126 126
Food Inflation 1.40
percent		 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.1
Core Pce Price Index 115.03
Index Points		 116 116 117 117 120
Core Producer Prices 115.30
Index Points		 116 117 117 118 124
CPI Housing Utilities 258.71
Index Points		 261 261 264 266 276
CPI Transportation 214.68
Index Points		 211 209 214 221 220
Pce Price Index 114.76
Index Points		 115 117 116 117 121
Inflation Expectations 2.98
percent		 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.00
percent		 2.25 2.5 2.5 2.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.35
percent		 2.6 2.85 2.85 3.1 3.35
Money Supply M0 3650554.00
USD Million		 3620475 3612695 3610632 3610182 3610007
Money Supply M1 3658.00
USD Billion		 3711 3753 3795 3836 4217
Money Supply M2 14112.30
USD Billion		 14244 14403 14562 14719 16271
Foreign Exchange Reserves 122844.00
USD Million		 122491 122461 122454 122454 122455
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4259935.00
USD Million		 4360790 4358306 4352601 4350218 4200000
Banks Balance Sheet 16739100.00
USD Million		 16818988 16833988 16837697 16838631 16838945
Loans to Private Sector 2209.53
USD Billion		 2276 2337 2389 2434 2653
Private Debt to GDP 202.80
percent		 198 198 195 195 191
Foreign Bond Investment 26699.00
USD Million		 2129 2132 2156 2155 2155
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -43053.00
USD Million		 -42100 -55000 -52000 -34000 -53000
Exports 215328.00
USD Million		 206000 205000 207000 223000 206000
Imports 258381.00
USD Million		 257000 260000 259000 257000 259000
Current Account -124105.00
USD Million		 -131000 -132000 -129000 -124383 -145000
Current Account to GDP -2.40
percent		 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3
External Debt -7888082.00
USD Million		 -7980634 -7977962 -7966377 -7965937 -7954592
Terms of Trade 98.39
Index Points		 102 102 102 102 94.09
Capital Flows 69902.00
USD Million		 6954 21927 27532 29945 28900
Foreign Direct Investment 45701.00
USD Million		 45716 46414 46098 46203 46174
Net Long Term Tic Flows 45575.00
USD Million		 51136 51085 50828 50813 50819
Gold Reserves 8134.00
Tonnes		 8134 8134 8134 8134 8134
Crude Oil Production 10467.00
BBL/D/1K		 9806 9980 9809 10030 11500
Terrorism Index 5.43
 5.2 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.8
Tourism Revenues 21547.00
USD Million		 21414 21440 21422 21435 21430
Tourist Arrivals 6145476.00
 6572800 6594500 6591200 6587400 6588300
Weapons Sales 12394.00
USD Million		 11923 12283 12241 12200 11141
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 105.40
percent		 108 108 108 108 109
Government Budget -3.50
percent of GDP		 -3.9 -5 -5 -5 -6
Government Budget Value -74858.00
USD Million		 -47267 -58790 -59598 -59958 -60423
Government Spending 2930.69
USD Billion		 2972 3000 3004 3004 3165
Government Revenues 316278.00
USD Million		 316273 299086 295111 294542 294258
Government Debt 21195070.00
USD Million		 21446371 21686156 21924466 22160251 24389754
Fiscal Expenditure 391136.00
USD Million		 363540 356324 354709 354501 354681
Asylum Applications 6901.00
Persons		 6929 6963 6978 6982 6981
Military Expenditure 597177.90
USD Million		 600321 752325 599577 599947 771394
Government Spending To Gdp 37.80
percent		 37.89 38.06 38.09 38.11 37.73
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 60.20
Index Points		 55 54 53 55 52
Manufacturing PMI 55.40
 53.8 53 52.1 52.8 53
Non Manufacturing PMI 59.10
 54 54.6 54 54.2 52
Services PMI 56.50
Index Points		 53.6 53.4 53.1 54 54.8
Composite Pmi 56.20
Index Points		 53.8 53.3 55.2 55.4 55.1
Industrial Production 3.80
percent		 3.5 3 2.9 3 1.1
Industrial Production Mom 0.60
percent		 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.90
percent		 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.23 1.9
Capacity Utilization 78.00
percent		 78.6 78.3 78.5 78.6 78
Durable Goods Orders -0.60
percent		 0.61 -0.3 0.35 0.34 0.4
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.50
percent		 0.64 0.39 0.34 0.33 0.33
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30
percent		 0.33 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.70
percent		 0.35 0.3 0.28 0.27 0.27
Factory Orders 0.40
percent		 0.3 0.1 0.29 0.29 0.2
New Orders 498174.00
USD Million		 498178 497715 497591 497556 497539
Business Inventories 0.40
percent		 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.27 0.2
Changes in Inventories 13.86
USD Billion		 19.5 69 17.73 16.35 75
Wholesale Inventories 0.60
percent		 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2
Bankruptcies 23106.00
Companies		 23013 22896 22926 22911 22907
Corporate Profits 1920.00
USD Billion		 1935 1947 1959 1971 2088
NFIB Business Optimism Index 107.20
Index Points		 102 103 107 105 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 25.70
Index Points		 21 21 25 9.39 16
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 20.00
Index Points		 20 5 10 5.57 3
Ism New York Index 55.00
percent		 56.8 55 56 53.9 55.9
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 22.60
Index Points		 18 21 19 17 10
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 36.50
Index Points		 31.4 27.9 20.1 34.15 12
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.15
 0.15 0.9 0.7 0.12 0.05
Chicago Pmi 64.10
Index Points		 59 59.1 61 58 56
Total Vehicle Sales 17.47
Million		 17.23 19.4 17.28 17.28 18.7
Car Production 2.70
Million Units		 2.87 3.97 2.91 2.91 4.04
Car Registrations 461.17
Thousand		 521 495 495 501 496
Crude Oil Stocks Change 5.84
BBL/1Million		 0.03 -2 0.05 0.05 0.1
Gasoline Stocks Change -3165.00
Thousand Barrels		 -500 1000 21.93 21.93 500
Natural Gas Stocks Change 46.00
Billion cf		 46.62 45.97 45.95 45.95 45.95
Leading Economic Index 123.07
Index Points		 123 123 123 123 123
Internet Speed 18747.58
KBps		 22628 23553 24392 24867 29875
IP Addresses 128949703.00
IP		 129480480 129684171 129654649 129670238 129691461
Crude Oil Rigs 858.00
 869 871 872 872 872
API Crude Oil Stock Change 0.63
BBL/1Million		 -0.17 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.3
Steel Production 7107.00
Thousand Tonnes		 6882 6870 7040 7001 7150
Competitiveness Index 5.85
Points		 5.85 5.85 5.9 5.9 5.85
Competitiveness Rank 2.00
 3 3 2 2 3
Corruption Index 75.00
Points		 74 74 75 75 76
Corruption Rank 16.00
 17 16 16 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 6.00
 7 6 7 7 6
Mining Production 12.90
percent		 12.5 11 9 11 4
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.10
Index Points		 97 93 95 96 86.7
Retail Sales MoM 0.50
percent		 0.36 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 6.60
percent		 5.2 4 4.2 5.75 4
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.40
percent		 0.38 0.34 0.33 0.33 0.4
Consumer Spending 12061.04
USD Billion		 12214 12360 12363 12363 13037
Disposable Personal Income 14929.76
USD Billion		 15062 15170 15278 15385 16460
Personal Spending 0.20
percent		 0.33 0.7 0.33 0.33 0.5
Personal Income 0.40
percent		 0.32 0.4 0.31 0.31 0.31
Personal Savings 3.20
percent		 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.14 4.2
Consumer Credit 24.60
USD Billion		 15.52 15.05 15.05 15.04 15.04
Private Sector Credit 9347.40
USD Billion		 9406 9451 9495 9536 9843
Bank Lending Rate 4.89
percent		 5.14 5.39 5.39 5.64 5.89
Economic Optimism Index 56.40
 52.9 52.3 52 51.3 50
Redbook Index 3.30
percent		 3.8 3.81 3.81 3.81 3.81
Chain Store Sales 4410.00
USD Million		 4678 4737 4725 4727 4727
Gasoline Prices 0.75
USD/Liter		 0.71 0.67 0.63 0.6 0.34
Households Debt To Gdp 78.70
percent of GDP		 78.68 81.2 78.76 78.79 82.6
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 1273.00
Thousand		 1280 1230 1320 1309 1315
Housing Starts 1173.00
Thousand		 1270 1330 1300 1388 1280
New Home Sales 689.00
Thousand		 580 600 615 679 590
Pending Home Sales -2.20
percent		 -0.4 0.1 1.1 1.3 1.2
Existing Home Sales 5430.00
Thousand		 5500 5600 5500 5444 5000
Construction Spending 0.40
percent		 0.3 1 0.54 0.54 0.4
Housing Index 0.10
percent		 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.42 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index 68.00
 70 68 66 67.96 53
Mortgage Rate 4.77
percent		 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 6.5
Mortgage Applications -2.50
percent		 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Case Shiller Home Price Index 210.17
Index Points		 212 213 215 2016 230
Home Ownership Rate 64.20
percent		 64.36 64.51 64.52 64.53 64.86
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 21.00
percent		 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate 37.00
percent		 37 37 37 37 35
Sales Tax Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 12.40
percent		 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.20
percent		 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.20
percent		 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -1.42
celsius		 19.24 3.01 -1.15 18.73 8.8
Precipitation 75.78
mm		 63.34 48.58 46.48 56.22 55.37