Markets Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Currency 102.09 100 99.68 99.24 99.24
Stock Market (points) 7670.05 7413 7252 7096 7096
Government Bond 10Y (%) 5.24 5.08 5.01 4.95 4.95

Overview Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.20 2 2.2 2.4 2.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.20 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.4
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 162.00 60 80 130 110
Inflation Rate (%) 3.40 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -88.58 -58 -50 -50 -66
Current Account (USD Billion) -246.00 -270 -280 -200 -220
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.40 52.9 52.9 54 53.6
Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.90 52 51 51.3 51.5
Business Confidence (points) 54.50 55 53 54 53
Services PMI (points) 58.70 52 52 51.2 51.6
Consumer Confidence (points) 48.10 54 55.9 57 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.20 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1403.00 1380 1410 1390 1340
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.9
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 123.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -6.6

GDP Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.20 2 2.2 2.4 2.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.20 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.4
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 24408.00 24512 24833 25018 24994
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 24423.00 24565 24834 25034 25009
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 4645.80 4565 4665 4762 4757
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 17905.60 17985 18203 18353 18335
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 870.00 878 883 892 891
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 704.00 737 741 722 721
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2470.60 2459 2507 2532 2530
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2588.70 2590 2648 2653 2651
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 389.60 410 407 399 399
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 395.70 389 397 406 405
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 187.50 195 189 192 192
GDP (USD Billion) 30769.70 31477
GDP per Capita (USD) 67945.61 69508
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 76931.31 78701
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.30 2.3

Labour Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 162.00 60 80 130 110
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 127.00 70 93 105 102
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 197.00 211 190 195 193
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1701.00 1800 1850 1920 1930
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 90.00 60 70 110 95
Employed Persons (Thousand) 162746.00 162700 162700 162100 162400
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 7031.00 7310 7360 7330 7350
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.30 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.40 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.60 61.5 61.3 61.3 61.6
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.14 1.18 1.18 1.21 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.10 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4
Labour Costs (points) 123.98 124 124 125 125
Productivity (points) 120.02 121 122 123 124
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 7067.00 7600 7490 7470 7410
Job Offers (Thousand) 7079.00 6850 6720 6700 6790
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 43281.00 73000 82000 89000 85000
Wages (USD/Hour) 32.53 33.04 33.31 33.51 33.7
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 30.37 30.63 31.08 31.37 31.46
Wage Growth (%) 4.17 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.90 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.70 7.9 7.9 8 8
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 3.10 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 28541.00 28100 28000 27900 28200
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 134288.00 133900 133800 133700 133900
Population (Million) 342.28 344

Prices Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Inflation Rate (%) 3.40 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 334.98 335 340 344 344
Core Consumer Prices (points) 337.77 341 343 345 346
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.40 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
GDP Deflator (points) 133.41 135 136 137 137
Producer Prices (points) 157.41 160 162 162 163
Producer Prices Change (%) 5.40 5.7 5 3.7 3.3
Export Prices (points) 166.20 169 169 160 158
Import Prices (points) 150.80 147 148 154 154
Food Inflation (%) 2.70 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 4.60 3.9 3.6 3.1 3
Import Prices YoY (%) 7.00 3.9 2.4 2.2 2
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.20 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.40 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 3.40 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 3.00 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5
CPI seasonally adjusted (points) 334.13 335 336 337 337
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 360.23 363 366 370 370
CPI Transportation (points) 290.78 292 293 293 294
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.60 3.4 3 2.7 2.8

Money Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 23342.80 23710 23900 24100 24150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6747704.00 6738000 67389000 6739000 6740000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 4.55 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
Private Debt to GDP (%) 142.20 142

Trade Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -88.58 -58 -50 -50 -66
Current Account (USD Billion) -246.00 -270 -280 -200 -220
Exports (USD Billion) 310.72 340 330 310 330
Imports (USD Billion) 399.30 398 380 360 396
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 13948.00 13700 13710 13750 13790
Tourist Arrivals 5415892.00 5780000 5780000 5310000 5690000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.9

Business Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.40 52.9 52.9 54 53.6
Manufacturing PMI (points) 55.90 52 51 51.3 51.5
Business Confidence (points) 54.50 55 53 54 53
Services PMI (points) 58.70 52 52 51.2 51.6
Composite PMI (points) 58.40 52 51.7 52 52.6
Industrial Production (%) 1.40 0.5 1 1.3 1.5
Manufacturing Production (%) 0.90 1 1.2 1.5 1.9
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.30 76.7 76.9 76.9 77
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.30 0.8 1 1.3 0.7
Durable Goods Orders (%) 0.00 0.7 1.2 1.7 1
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 0.10 1.3 1 2.2 0.8
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.60 1.3 1.6 2 1.2
Factory Orders (%) 0.90 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.1
Business Inventories (%) 0.80 0.2 0.9 1 0.4
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.70 0.5 0.8 1 0.9
Bankruptcies (Companies) 26941.00 27400 27600 28000 27800
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 3877.43 3900 3990 4020 4060
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 98.70 95 97 98 99
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 37.80 18 11 13 21
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 7.60 6 8 10 15
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -2.00 3 3 4 7
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.04 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Chicago PMI (points) 58.80 50 51 52 53
Car Production (Million Units) 10.43 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.80 16 16 14.9 14.8
Car Registrations (Thousand) 228.40 210 220 200 190
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 20.00 4 6 8 15

Consumer Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Consumer Confidence (points) 48.10 54 55.9 57 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.20 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 1.40 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Retail Sales YoY (%) 6.00 4 3 3.2 2.9
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 16788.70 16870 17017 17208 17192
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 24223.20 23710 23800 23900 23950
Personal Spending (%) 0.90 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3
Personal Income (%) 0.20 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 4.10 3 3.1 3.2 3
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 18.06 9 12 14 16
Bank Lending Rate (%) 6.75 7 7 7 7
Economic Optimism Index (points) 45.60 48 49 48 49
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 1.20 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.15 1.29 1.34 1.4 1.4

Housing Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Building Permits (Thousand) 1403.00 1380 1410 1390 1340
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1275.00 1320 1350 1320 1300
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 684.00 610 610 620 612
Pending Home Sales (%) -4.70 0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 3980.00 3700 3600 3500 3400
Construction Spending (%) 0.90 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 32.00 33 36 37 39
Mortgage Rate (%) 7.30 6.91 6.95 7 7
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 2.50 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 350.36 343 347 356 357

Energy Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Crude Oil Rigs 455.00 440 440 450 455

Government Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 123.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -6.6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 33.80 34.2