Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Currency 91.54 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 98.17
Stock Market (points) 34163.03 33337 32684 32042 31416 30164
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.58 1.63 1.68 1.73 1.78 1.89

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.30 2.5 2.9 1.7 1.7 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -2.40 3.4 3.7 3.8 2.1 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.00 6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 916.00 380 230 250 250 280
Inflation Rate (%) 2.60 3 2.2 1.7 2.2 1.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -71078.00 -63000 -60000 -63000 -52000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -188484.00 -117000 -99000 -117000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.10 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Government Debt to GDP (%) 107.60 125 125 125 125 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -8.7
Business Confidence (points) 64.70 58 56 53.4 53 53.4
Services PMI (points) 60.40 55 52 50.5 52 50.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 59.10 54 52 51 51.2 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 63.70 51 51 50 52 52
Consumer Confidence (points) 86.50 85 82 84 83 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 9.80 1.3 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1766.00 1510 1470 1400 1350 1300
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4.30 2.5 2.9 1.7 1.7 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -2.40 3.4 3.7 3.8 2.1 2
GDP (USD Billion) 21433.20 21500 21500 21500 21500 22790
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 18794.40 19049 17891 19875 19498 19888
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 18984.50 19271 18036 20131 19468 19857
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3458.90 3382 3202 3556 3594 3666
GDP per capita (USD) 55809.00 54200 54200 54200 54200 55000
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 62682.80 60500 60500 60500 60500 61100
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 266.20 265 244 225 272 278
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 673.00 666 637 684 679 693
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2234.40 2204 2030 2266 2297 2343
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 428.50 501 453 455 438 447
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2179.80 2237 2206 2310 2269 2314
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 12925.10 13124 12250 13580 13257 13523
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 501.80 571 454 578 517 527
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 289.30 303 306 297 308 314

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.00 6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 916.00 380 230 250 250 280
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 780.00 270 120 105 105 110
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 136.00 10 50 2 2 60
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 53.00 20 10 2 2 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 576.00 500 350 300 300 270
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 3731.00 4500 4500 3900 3900 2700
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 517.00 350 220 250 190 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 150848.00 155000 157000 158000 158000 159000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 9710.00 9000 8000 6890 6700 6200
Average Hourly Earnings (%) -0.10 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.90 34.7 34.7 34.6 34.8 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.50 61.7 61.9 62.7 62.7 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 2.59 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 11.10 10.7 10.7 8.6 10 9.7
Productivity (points) 111.09 111 110 111 111 111
Labour Costs (points) 116.42 118 122 126 126 126
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 7151.00 6800 7000 7100 7000 6600
Job Offers (Thousand) 7367.00 7200 6500 6600 6600 5900
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 30603.00 35000 45000 55000 50000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 25.21 24.92 25.66 26.43 26.01 26.94
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 23.29 23.3 23.36 25.07 24.08 24.95
Wage Growth (%) -0.01 3.6 4 3.4 2.9 3.6
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 9.5 9.5 9.5 11 11
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.70 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6
Population (Million) 329.48 331 331 333 333 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate (%) 57.80 58.9 60.9 60.8 61 61
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 683.00 500 450 350 350 300
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 125803.00 129000 131000 133627 133627 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 25078.00 27500 27500 26500 26500 26500

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 2.60 3 2.2 1.7 2.2 1.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.60 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 264.79 265 266 266 271 270
Core Consumer Prices (points) 271.21 271 274 274 275 279
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.60 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7
GDP Deflator (points) 114.40 116 116 116 117 118
Producer Prices (points) 123.10 120 120 122 125 124
Producer Prices Change (%) 4.20 2.5 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.8
Export Prices (points) 133.70 126 127 128 128 129
Import Prices (points) 129.70 126 127 128 128 128
Food Inflation (%) 3.60 2.7 2.5 2.3 2 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 276.03 280 279 278 281 283
CPI Transportation (points) 215.76 201 207 207 214 210
Core Pce Price Index (points) 114.72 115 116 116 116 119
Core Producer Prices (points) 122.00 121 121 121 121 121
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.20 3 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5
Pce Price Index (points) 112.74 113 114 114 114 116

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.18 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 143407.00 139700 138000 130150 130150 130150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 7692317.00 7585597 7592000 7506458 7450000 7309422
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 21041.90 20850 20700 20656 20600 20556
Private Debt to GDP (%) 220.20 228 228 228 228 224
Repo Rate 0.02 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -71078.00 -63000 -60000 -63000 -52000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -188484.00 -117000 -99000 -117000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (%) -3.10 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Imports (USD Million) 258329.00 263000 263000 269000 262000 269000
Exports (USD Million) 187250.00 200000 203000 206000 210000 206000
External Debt (USD Million) 21358343.00 22386165 22406171 22500000 22500000 22934407
Terms of Trade (points) 105.06 100 100 100 100 101
Capital Flows (USD Million) 72638.00 40200 47000 35000 35000 23000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 45262.00 50000 52000 53000 53000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11080.00 11000 11200 11000 11000 12000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -86720.00 -73000 -74000 -73000 -73000 -74500
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 4881.00 7840 8920 9460 9460 21200
Tourist Arrivals 1046703.00 1800000 2000000 2000100 2000100 4760100

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Government Debt to GDP (%) 107.60 125 125 125 125 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -8.7
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -660000.00 -315000 -95000 -62490 -10000 -10000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3320.40 3355 3483 3377 3444 3513
Government Revenues (USD Million) 267614.00 360000 350000 340000 340000 340000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 927206.00 455000 455000 350000 350000 350000
Government Spending To GDP (%) 44.00 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 38.4
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 718689.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Business Confidence (points) 64.70 58 56 53.4 53 53.4
Services PMI (points) 60.40 55 52 50.5 52 50.8
Manufacturing PMI (points) 59.10 54 52 51 51.2 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 63.70 51 51 50 52 52
Composite PMI (points) 59.70 56 53 50.4 53 50.8
Industrial Production (%) 1.00 12.2 6.5 4 3.6 3.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 1.40 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 3.10 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 74.39 76.3 77 77.4 77.2 78.4
Durable Goods Orders (%) -1.10 6 3.7 0.3 0.3 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -0.70 1.8 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.90 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.60 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.3
Factory Orders (%) -0.80 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
Business Inventories (%) 0.50 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) 62.10 20 47 33 25 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.60 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 21655.00 22000 22000 22300 22500 22000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1951.40 1900 1950 1870 1870 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 98.20 104 100 99 99 102
Ism New York Index (%) 37.20 52 53 52 52 52
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 28.90 8 6 3 3 3
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -1.09 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.5 -0.2
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 26.30 7 12 4 4 4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 50.20 12 15 5 5 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 17.00 4 3 2.5 2.5 2.5
Chicago PMI (points) 66.30 50 51 52 52 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 17.70 16.5 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.3
Car Production (Million Units) 1.42 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5
Car Registrations (Thousand) 286.74 290 310 330 330 350
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -5.89 10 -5 -5 -5 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 309.00 430 -15 -15 -15 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 61.00 80 -40 20 20 20
Leading Economic Index (points) 124.82 129 131 127 127 128
Crude Oil Rigs 344.00 310 320 300 300 290
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -3.61 3.5 -5 -2 4 2
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 23.00 12 8 4 4 5
Mining Production (%) -8.80 3.8 4 2.3 2.3 2.3
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 6300.00 6750 6810 6810 6810 7350

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) 86.50 85 82 84 83 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 9.80 1.3 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 27.70 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 8.40 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 12999.10 13145 12263 13803 13494 13764
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 17678.20 20451 18508 17891 18500 18357
Personal Spending (%) -1.00 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 1
Personal Income (%) -7.10 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 13.60 10 8 9.5 9.5 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 27.58 19.18 17.77 9.4 28.16 9.59
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10375.33 10600 107000 9900 9900 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Economic Optimism Index 56.40 50 53 53 53 49
Redbook Index (%) 10.60 1.7 2 3 0.5 2.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 1579.00 2600 2500 6000 6000 6000
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 78.00 79 79 79 79 79
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.74 0.59 0.56 0.52 0.51 0.48

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Building Permits (Thousand) 1766.00 1510 1470 1400 1350 1300
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1739.00 1410 1350 1270 1300 1270
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 775.00 840 820 860 800 650
Pending Home Sales (%) -0.50 3.8 4 1.7 1.7 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 6220.00 6400 6000 5600 5400 4700
Construction Spending (%) -0.80 1.2 0.6 0.6 -0.2 0.4
Housing Index (%) 1.00 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 83.00 78 76 75 73 63
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.27 3.4 3.35 3.3 3.4 3.5
Mortgage Applications (%) -3.70 -0.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 242.98 235 237 245 235 250
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.80 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.