Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Currency 90.52 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 98.17
Stock Market (points) 34450.40 33798 33136 32485 31850 30582
Government Bond 10Y (%) 1.45 1.5 1.55 1.59 1.64 1.74

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.40 9 7.5 4 1.7 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.40 8.4 3.7 3.8 2.1 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.80 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.5 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 559.00 420 230 250 250 280
Inflation Rate (%) 5.00 5.7 4.2 2.7 2.2 1.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.60 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -68899.00 -63000 -60000 -63000 -52000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -188484.00 -117000 -99000 -117000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 107.60 115 115 115 118 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -8.7
Business Confidence (points) 61.20 58 56 53.4 53 53.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 62.10 54 52 51 51.2 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 64.00 61 55 50 52 52
Services PMI (points) 70.40 58 54 50.5 52 50.8
Consumer Confidence (points) 86.40 86.4 82 84 83 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.00 1.3 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1733.00 1510 1470 1400 1350 1300
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
GDP Growth Rate (%) 6.40 9 7.5 4 1.7 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 0.40 8.4 3.7 3.8 2.1 2
GDP (USD Billion) 21433.20 21500 21500 21500 21500 22790
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 19088.06 18756 19285 19509 19488 19899
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 19258.78 18908 19484 19706 19383 20100
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 3552.40 3356 3437 3590 3618 3662
GDP per capita (USD) 55809.00 56200 56200 56200 56200 55000
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 62682.80 60500 60500 60500 60500 61100
GDP From Agriculture (USD Billion) 266.20 256 272 276 272 282
GDP From Construction (USD Billion) 673.00 668 679 699 687 713
GDP From Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2234.40 2128 2295 2319 2281 2366
GDP From Mining (USD Billion) 428.50 475 437 445 438 454
GDP From Public Administration (USD Billion) 2179.80 2313 2267 2263 2226 2308
GDP From Services (USD Billion) 12925.10 12842 13245 13416 13197 13685
GDP From Transport (USD Billion) 501.80 476 516 521 512 531
GDP From Utilities (USD Billion) 289.30 321 307 300 295 306

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.80 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.5 5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 559.00 420 230 250 250 280
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 492.00 370 120 105 105 110
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 67.00 50 50 2 2 60
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 23.00 18 10 2 2 2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 376.00 400 350 300 300 270
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 3499.00 3500 3300 3100 3000 2500
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 978.00 850 220 250 190 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 151620.00 155000 157000 158000 158000 159000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 9316.00 9600 9300 8890 8000 7200
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.50 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.90 34.7 34.7 34.6 34.8 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.60 61.7 61.9 62.7 62.7 62.7
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 2.33 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.90 9.8 10 9.8 9.6 9.6
Productivity (points) 112.73 111 110 111 111 111
Labour Costs (points) 119.07 122 119 126 120 125
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 9982.00 7300 7000 7100 7000 6600
Job Offers (Thousand) 9286.00 8800 7000 6600 6600 5900
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 24586.00 25000 35000 55000 50000 55000
Wages (USD/Hour) 25.60 25.66 25.78 26.01 25.98 26.94
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 23.53 23.3 23.36 25.07 24.08 24.95
Wage Growth (%) 4.41 3.6 4 3.4 2.9 3.6
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 9.5 9.5 9.5 11 11
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.90 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6
Population (Million) 329.48 331 331 333 333 335
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Employment Rate (%) 58.00 58.9 60.9 60.8 61 61
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 126384.00 129000 131000 133627 133627 133627
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 25202.00 27500 27500 26500 26500 26500
Jobless Claims 4-week Average (Thousand) 402.50 500 450 350 350 300

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Inflation Rate (%) 5.00 5.7 4.2 2.7 2.2 1.6
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.60 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 268.55 272 271 269 271 273
Core Consumer Prices (points) 275.72 278 279 277 275 281
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.80 4.3 3.8 2.5 1.5 1.7
GDP Deflator (points) 115.58 119 119 117 118 119
Producer Prices (points) 123.80 124 124 123 125 125
Producer Prices Change (%) 6.20 5.5 4.4 2.8 1.6 1.8
Export Prices (points) 135.20 136 127 128 128 129
Import Prices (points) 130.70 126 127 128 128 128
Food Inflation (%) 2.20 2.7 2.5 2.3 2 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 278.65 287 285 281 282 286
CPI Transportation (points) 229.69 207 211 209 221 212
Core Pce Price Index (points) 115.97 115 116 116 116 119
Core Producer Prices (points) 122.80 123 125 126 128 130
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.40 3 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5
Pce Price Index (points) 114.08 113 114 114 114 116

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Interbank Rate (%) 0.12 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 141120.00 139700 138000 130150 130150 130150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 7935703.00 7585597 7592000 7506458 7450000 7309422
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 21389.00 21850 21000 20656 20600 20556
Private Debt to GDP (%) 235.50 228 228 228 228 224
Repo Rate 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.13

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -68899.00 -63000 -60000 -63000 -52000 -63000
Current Account (USD Million) -188484.00 -117000 -99000 -117000 -117000 -117000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.10 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6
Imports (USD Million) 273891.00 263000 263000 269000 262000 269000
Exports (USD Million) 204992.00 200000 203000 206000 210000 206000
External Debt (USD Million) 21358343.00 22386165 22406171 22500000 22500000 22934407
Terms of Trade (points) 107.64 108 100 100 100 101
Capital Flows (USD Million) 146400.00 40200 47000 35000 35000 23000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 45262.00 50000 52000 53000 53000 54000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 11184.00 11000 11200 11000 11000 12000
Goods Trade Balance (USD Million) -85727.00 -85000 -80000 -73000 -73000 -74500
Tourism Revenues (USD Million) 4881.00 7840 8920 9460 9460 21200
Tourist Arrivals 1046703.00 1800000 2000000 2000100 2000100 4760100

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 107.60 115 115 115 118 122
Government Budget (% of GDP) -4.60 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -8.7
Government Budget Value (USD Million) -131953.00 -145000 -125000 -62490 -10000 -10000
Government Spending (USD Billion) 3367.14 3652 3450 3447 3442 3515
Government Revenues (USD Million) 463745.00 310000 330000 310000 340000 340000
Government Debt (USD Million) 28199008.00 28200000 28300000 28500000 286000000 29000000
Fiscal Expenditure (USD Million) 595698.00 455000 455000 350000 350000 350000
Government Spending To GDP (% of GDP) 44.00 40.3 40.3 40.3 40.3 38.4
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 766583.00 771394 771394 771394 771394 771394

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Sales Tax Rate (%) 0.00 0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate (%) 15.30 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Business Confidence (points) 61.20 58 56 53.4 53 53.4
Manufacturing PMI (points) 62.10 54 52 51 51.2 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 64.00 61 55 50 52 52
Services PMI (points) 70.40 58 54 50.5 52 50.8
Composite PMI (points) 68.70 56 53 50.4 53 50.8
Industrial Production (%) 16.50 12.2 6.5 4 3.6 3.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) 0.70 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 23.00 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.7 0.7
Capacity Utilization (%) 74.90 76.3 77 77.4 77.2 78.4
Durable Goods Orders (%) -1.30 2 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 0.00 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 1.00 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.5 0.2
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.50 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.3
Factory Orders (%) -0.60 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
Business Inventories (%) 0.30 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Changes in Inventories (USD Billion) -92.88 20 47 33 25 45
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.80 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 19911.00 18000 19000 20300 22500 22000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 1936.00 1900 1950 1870 1870 1870
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 99.60 100 100 99 99 102
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 24.30 23 12 4 4 4
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 31.50 30 15 5 5 5
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 18.00 4 3 2.5 2.5 2.5
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 34.90 28 16 13 17 10
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.24 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.5 -0.2
Chicago PMI (points) 75.20 58 51 52 52 54
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 17.00 16.5 17.1 17.1 17.5 17.5
Car Production (Million Units) 1.64 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5
Car Registrations (Thousand) 412.61 290 310 330 330 350
Crude Oil Stocks Change (BBL/1Million) -5.24 10 -5 -5 -5 2.6
Gasoline Stocks Change (Thousand Barrels) 7046.00 430 -15 -15 -15 2000
Natural Gas Stocks Change (Billion cf) 98.00 95 75 -60 -120 20
Leading Economic Index (points) 126.27 129 131 127 127 128
Crude Oil Rigs 365.00 310 320 300 300 290
API Crude Oil Stock Change (BBL/1Million) -2.11 3.5 -5 -2 4 2
Mining Production (%) -2.40 3.8 4 2.3 2.3 2.3
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 32.00 29 8 4 4 5
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 6900.00 7200 7110 7010 6810 7350

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Consumer Confidence (points) 86.40 86.4 82 84 83 84
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.00 1.3 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) 51.20 4.1 3.4 2.8 1.8 1.8
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) -0.80 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 13352.15 12857 13403 13493 13614 13763
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 18844.55 20451 18508 17891 18500 18357
Personal Spending (%) 0.50 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 1
Personal Income (%) -13.10 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 14.90 12 10 9.5 9.5 9.5
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 18.61 20.11 17.77 16.27 26.38 9.59
Private Sector Credit (USD Billion) 10343.52 10600 107000 9900 9900 9900
Bank Lending Rate (%) 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Economic Optimism Index 56.40 54 53 53 53 49
Redbook Index (%) 14.50 1.7 2 3 0.5 2.1
Chain Store Sales (USD Million) 2056.00 2600 2500 6000 6000 6000
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 79.50 79 79 79 79 79
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.79 0.71 0.68 0.64 0.61 0.58

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2022
Building Permits (Thousand) 1733.00 1510 1470 1400 1350 1300
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1569.00 1410 1350 1270 1300 1270
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 863.00 940 820 860 800 650
Pending Home Sales (%) 51.70 3.8 4 1.7 1.7 1.7
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 5850.00 6000 5800 5600 5400 4700
Construction Spending (%) 0.20 1.2 0.6 0.6 -0.2 0.4
Housing Index (%) 1.40 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index 83.00 83 76 75 73 63
Mortgage Rate (%) 3.15 3.25 3.35 3.3 3.4 3.5
Mortgage Applications (%) -3.10 -0.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 0.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 251.57 245 237 245 235 250
Home Ownership Rate (%) 65.60 65.5 64.5 64.5 64.5 64.5


This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.