Markets Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Currency 101.65 101 101 101 100
Stock Market (points) 7623.68 7502 7303 7149 6998
Government Bond 10Y (%) 5.00 4.95 4.87 4.81 4.75

Overview Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.20 2 2.2 2.4 2.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.20 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.4
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.20 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 29.00 60 80 130 110
Inflation Rate (%) 3.70 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.60 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -105.57 -109 -109 -116 -115
Current Account (USD Billion) -246.00 -270 -280 -200 -220
Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.00 54 51 51.3 51.5
Business Confidence (points) 54.50 55 53 54 53
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.90 52.9 52.9 54 53.6
Services PMI (points) 57.90 55.9 52 51.2 51.6
Consumer Confidence (points) 48.00 49 55.9 57 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.80 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1400.00 1380 1410 1390 1340
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.9
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 123.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -6.6

GDP Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.20 2 2.2 2.4 2.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.20 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.4
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 24408.00 24512 24833 25018 24994
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 24423.00 24565 24834 25034 25009
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 4645.80 4565 4665 4762 4757
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 17905.60 17985 18203 18353 18335
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2470.60 2459 2507 2532 2530
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2588.70 2590 2648 2653 2651
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 870.00 878 883 892 891
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 704.00 737 741 722 721
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 389.60 410 407 399 399
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 395.70 389 397 406 405
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 187.50 195 189 192 192
GDP (USD Billion) 30769.70 31477
GDP per Capita (USD) 67945.61 69508
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 76931.31 78701
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.30 2.3

Labour Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.20 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 29.00 60 80 130 110
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 46.00 70 93 105 102
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 194.00 211 190 195 193
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1728.00 1800 1850 1920 1930
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 90.00 60 70 110 95
Employed Persons (Thousand) 163152.00 162700 162700 162100 162400
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 7109.00 7310 7360 7330 7350
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.40 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.80 61.5 61.3 61.3 61.6
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.14 1.18 1.18 1.21 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.90 10 10 10.1 10.1
Productivity (points) 120.02 121 122 123 124
Labour Costs (points) 123.98 124 124 125 125
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 7067.00 7600 7490 7470 7410
Job Offers (Thousand) 7079.00 6850 6720 6700 6790
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 43281.00 73000 82000 89000 85000
Wages (USD/Hour) 32.60 33.04 33.31 33.51 33.77
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 30.21 30.63 31.07 31.37 31.3
Wage Growth (%) 4.17 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.90 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.60 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 3.00 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 134376.00 133900 133800 133700 133900
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 28746.00 28100 28000 27900 28200
Population (Million) 342.28 344

Prices Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Inflation Rate (%) 3.70 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.60 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 336.94 335 340 344 346
Core Consumer Prices (points) 338.90 341 343 345 347
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.60 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
GDP Deflator (points) 133.41 135 136 137 137
Producer Prices (points) 159.78 160 162 162 165
Producer Prices Change (%) 6.30 5.7 5 3.7 3.3
Export Prices (points) 170.80 169 169 160 158
Import Prices (points) 152.20 147 148 154 155
Food Inflation (%) 2.50 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4
CPI seasonally adjusted (points) 336.30 337 339 339 340
Import Prices YoY (%) 8.10 3.9 2.4 2.2 2
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 5.00 3.9 3.6 3.1 3
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.20 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.30 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 1.30 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 3.00 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 3.40 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 361.39 363 366 370 371
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.90 3.4 3 2.7 2.8
CPI Transportation (points) 295.86 297 298 299 299

Money Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Interest Rate (%) 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 23342.80 23710 23900 24100 24150
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6753604.00 6738000 67389000 6739000 6740000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 4.49 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74
Private Debt to GDP (%) 142.20 142

Trade Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -105.57 -109 -109 -116 -115
Current Account (USD Billion) -246.00 -270 -280 -200 -220
Imports (USD Billion) 420.75 425 420 426 429
Exports (USD Billion) 315.18 316 311 310 314
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 13948.00 13700 13710 13750 13790
Tourist Arrivals 6248242.00 5780000 5780000 5310000 5690000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.9

Business Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Manufacturing PMI (points) 56.00 54 51 51.3 51.5
Business Confidence (points) 54.50 55 53 54 53
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.90 52.9 52.9 54 53.6
Services PMI (points) 57.90 55.9 52 51.2 51.6
Composite PMI (points) 57.60 54 51.7 52 52.6
Industrial Production (%) 2.20 0.5 1 1.3 1.5
Manufacturing Production (%) 1.10 1 1.2 1.5 1.9
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.90 76.7 76.9 76.9 77
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 0.10 1.3 1 2.2 0.8
Durable Goods Orders (%) 0.00 0.7 1.2 1.7 1
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.30 0.8 1 1.3 0.7
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.30 1.3 1.6 2 1.2
Factory Orders (%) 0.10 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.1
Business Inventories (%) 0.40 0.2 0.9 1 0.4
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.50 0.5 0.8 1 0.9
Bankruptcies (Companies) 26941.00 27400 27600 28000 27800
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 3877.43 3900 3990 4020 4060
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 97.90 95 97 98 99
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 25.50 6 8 10 15
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 20.90 18 11 13 21
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -2.00 3 3 4 7
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.04 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2
Chicago PMI (points) 58.80 50 51 52 53
Car Registrations (Thousand) 209.30 210 220 200 190
Car Production (Million Units) 10.21 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.00 16 16 14.9 14.8
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 16.00 4 6 8 15

Consumer Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Consumer Confidence (points) 48.00 49 55.9 57 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.80 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.90 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3
Retail Sales YoY (%) 6.30 4 3 3.2 2.9
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 16788.70 16870 17017 17208 17192
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 24223.20 23710 23800 23900 23950
Personal Spending (%) 0.90 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3
Personal Income (%) 0.20 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 4.10 3 3.1 3.2 3
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 8.28 9 12 14 16
Bank Lending Rate (%) 7.00 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25
Economic Optimism Index (points) 46.80 48 49 48 49
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.15 1.19 1.25 1.31 1.37

Housing Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Building Permits (Thousand) 1400.00 1380 1410 1390 1340
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1221.00 1320 1350 1320 1300
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 684.00 610 610 620 612
Pending Home Sales (%) -11.30 0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 3990.00 3700 3600 3500 3400
Construction Spending (%) 0.90 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 29.00 33 36 37 39
Mortgage Rate (%) 7.41 6.91 6.95 7 7
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 2.50 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 350.36 343 347 356 357

Energy Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Crude Oil Rigs 460.00 440 440 450 455

Government Actual Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27 Q3/27
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 123.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -6.6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 33.80 34.2