Markets Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Currency 100.92 101 100 99.57 99.1
Stock Market (points) 7553.32 7433 7262 7110 6962
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.58 4.51 4.45 4.39 4.33

Overview Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.10 0.9 2 2.2 2.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.70 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.9
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.20 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 57.00 120 60 60 130
Inflation Rate (%) 4.20 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.9
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.50 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 4 4 4.25
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -77.59 -60 -58 -50 -50
Current Account (USD Billion) -226.83 -190 -170 -180 -200
Business Confidence (points) 53.30 54 50 48 51
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.90 50.7 52 51 51.3
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.00 51 52 52 54
Services PMI (points) 51.20 50.6 51 51 51.2
Consumer Confidence (points) 49.50 52 54 55.9 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.90 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5
Building Permits (Thousand) 1410.00 1360 1380 1410 1390
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.9
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 123.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -6.6

GDP Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.10 0.9 2 2.2 2.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.70 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.9
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 24180.40 24459 24441 24737 24882
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 24246.70 24497 24560 24804 24950
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 4475.10 4468 4476 4578 4605
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2448.90 2478 2447 2505 2520
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2595.50 2648 2590 2655 2671
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 17664.60 17845 17913 18071 18177
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 889.20 905 899 910 915
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 747.00 770 761 764 769
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 357.20 360 356 365 368
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 375.30 376 381 384 386
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 207.60 204 212 212 214
GDP (USD Billion) 30769.70 31477
GDP per Capita (USD) 67945.61 69508
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 75489.27 77226
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.10 2.3

Labour Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.20 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 57.00 120 60 60 130
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 49.00 95 80 93 105
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 215.00 227 218 190 195
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1814.00 1890 1900 1850 1920
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 98.00 75 60 70 110
Employed Persons (Thousand) 162264.00 162800 162700 162700 162100
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 7094.00 7390 7440 7460 7430
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.30 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.30 34.2 34.3 34.3 34.3
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.50 61.4 61.5 61.2 61.3
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.14 1.15 1.18 1.18 1.21
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.20 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.4
Productivity (points) 119.40 117 116 117 116
Labour Costs (points) 123.78 123 124 124 124
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 7508.00 6630 6600 6590 6570
Job Offers (Thousand) 7594.00 6700 6650 6620 6600
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 45849.00 78000 73000 82000 89000
Wages (USD/Hour) 32.38 32.79 33.04 33.31 33.58
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 30.27 30.36 30.63 31.08 31.39
Wage Growth (%) 3.82 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.90 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.90 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.1
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 3.50 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 133659.00 134000 133900 133800 133700
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 28626.00 28500 28100 28000 27900
Population (Million) 342.28 344

Prices Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Inflation Rate (%) 4.20 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.9
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.50 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 335.12 337 335 340 345
Core Consumer Prices (points) 336.12 340 341 343 345
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.90 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6
GDP Deflator (points) 131.78 134 135 136 136
Producer Prices (points) 157.66 159 159 161 163
Producer Prices Change (%) 6.50 5.9 4.7 4 3.7
Export Prices (points) 168.60 180 175 169 160
Import Prices (points) 150.50 150 147 148 154
Food Inflation (%) 3.10 3 2.8 2.6 2.4
Import Prices YoY (%) 6.70 6.5 3.9 2.4 2.2
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 4.10 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 4.90 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.1
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.20 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 3.40 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.5
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 1.10 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3
CPI seasonally adjusted (points) 333.98 336 337 338 339
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 358.39 363 363 366 369
CPI Transportation (points) 298.41 300 301 302 303
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.70 3.1 3 2.9 2.7

Money Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 4 4 4.25
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 22804.50 22870 22650 22640 22000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6735609.00 6630000 6600000 6580000 6650000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 4.33 4.33 4.58 4.58 4.83
Private Debt to GDP (%) 142.20 142

Trade Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -77.59 -60 -58 -50 -50
Current Account (USD Billion) -226.83 -190 -170 -180 -200
Exports (USD Billion) 317.68 325 340 330 310
Imports (USD Billion) 395.26 385 398 380 360
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 13934.00 13470 13500 13400 13500
Tourist Arrivals 5537310.00 5521000 5780000 5780000 5310000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.9

Business Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Business Confidence (points) 53.30 54 50 48 51
Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.90 50.7 52 51 51.3
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.00 51 52 52 54
Services PMI (points) 51.20 50.6 51 51 51.2
Composite PMI (points) 51.90 50.5 51.6 51.6 52
Industrial Production (%) 1.70 0.6 0.5 1 1.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 1.40 1.3 1 1.2 1.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.20 77 77.2 77.1 76.9
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -4.60 0 1.3 1 2.2
Durable Goods Orders (%) -4.50 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 1.30 0.3 0.8 1 1.3
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 1.90 0.4 1.3 1.6 2
Factory Orders (%) -1.30 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.8
Business Inventories (%) 0.50 0.2 0.2 0.9 1
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.10 0.1 0.5 0.8 1
Bankruptcies (Companies) 25960.00 25100 25400 25600 27000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 3623.72 3600 3700 3790 3820
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 95.30 94 92 95 97
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 10.30 7 8 11 13
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 5.70 -9 6 8 10
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 4.00 -1 3 3 4
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3
Chicago PMI (points) 56.70 48 49 51 52
Car Production (Million Units) 10.63 10.8 10.5 10.4 10.4
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.50 14.7 15 15 14.9
Car Registrations (Thousand) 226.80 220 210 220 200
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 19.00 -1 4 6 8

Consumer Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Consumer Confidence (points) 49.50 52 54 55.9 57
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.90 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.80 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3
Retail Sales YoY (%) 6.90 2.2 2.5 3 3.2
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 16687.70 16884 16932 17072 17172
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 23472.20 23700 23710 23800 23900
Personal Spending (%) 0.70 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4
Personal Income (%) 0.70 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2
Personal Savings (%) 3.00 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.4
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) -0.18 5 9 12 14
Bank Lending Rate (%) 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
Economic Optimism Index (points) 45.50 50 54 51 52
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 0.50 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.07 0.92 0.77 0.77 0.77

Housing Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Building Permits (Thousand) 1410.00 1360 1380 1410 1390
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1177.00 1300 1320 1350 1320
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 580.00 620 610 610 620
Pending Home Sales (%) 4.80 1 0.8 -0.3 0.2
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4090.00 3900 3700 3600 3500
Construction Spending (%) 0.10 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 35.00 42 43 48 51
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.58 6.4 6.3 6.1 6
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 1.10 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 345.43 342 341 347 351

Energy Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Crude Oil Rigs 445.00 435 440 440 450

Government Actual Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27 Q2/27
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 123.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -6.6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 33.80 34.2