United States | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

In 2017, a resilient household spending and inventory building are expected to support growth in the United States. However, net trade is likely to drag the expansion down amid a strong dollar as the Fed continues to tighten. In addition, business sentiment is expected to soften and stocks to pull back on raising concerns over the delivery of promised fiscal stimulus. This page has economic forecasts for the United States including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the the United States economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.60 2 2 2.2 2.3 2.5 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -46507.00 -45000 -46700 -50000 -49300 -59000 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 106 108 108 109 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Stock Market 21732.97 21300 21000 20800 20600 18300 points [+]
Currency 93.91 97.21 98.18 99.14 100 111 [+]
Government Bond 10Y 2.32 2.37 2.4 2.42 2.44 2.7 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.6 percent [+]
GDP 18569.10 19200 19200 19800 19800 20700 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 16872.80 17080 17270 17350 17490 18500 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 17062.80 17183 17233 17271 17309 18300 USD Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2873.00 2924 2942 2961 2975 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP per capita 52194.90 52400 52800 53500 53500 54800 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53272.50 53060 53060 53220 53220 54500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 149.50 151 155 153 154 153 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 810.40 830 838 846 853 760 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 2208.50 2216 2220 2223 2225 2240 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 327.00 347 208 344 345 252 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 2439.40 2480 2497 2517 2536 2710 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Services 13092.20 13323 13600 13518 13616 15800 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 574.50 583 588 587 592 595 USD Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 288.00 291 271 289 290 302 USD Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 6 percent [+]
Non Farm Payrolls 222.00 165 160 190 170 170 Thousand [+]
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 187.00 176 176 175 175 175 Thousand [+]
Government Payrolls 35.00 11.86 13 11.43 11.4 11 Thousand [+]
Manufacturing Payrolls 1.00 8.81 10 9.57 11.62 -2 Thousand [+]
Initial Jobless Claims 244.00 243 243 243 243 243 Thousand [+]
Continuing Jobless Claims 1964.00 2010 2027 2033 2035 2036 Thousand [+]
ADP Employment Change 158.00 172 164 179 179 150 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 6977.00 6758 6622 6516 6434 6179 Thousand [+]
Employed Persons 153168.00 153451 153734 153989 154215 154000 Thousand [+]
Average Hourly Earnings 0.20 0.16 0.18 0.15 0.17 0.17 percent [+]
Average Weekly Hours 34.50 34.49 34.5 34.51 34.51 34.52 Hours [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.80 62.8 62.8 62.79 62.79 62.79 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.04 1.18 1.07 1.05 1.05 0.39 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.10 8.69 8.51 8.34 8.22 7.79 percent [+]
Productivity 107.50 108 108 108 109 111 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 110.04 110 111 111 111 114 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 5665.00 5613 5671 5710 5731 5767 Thousand [+]
Job Offers 5666.00 5854 5872 5888 5902 5960 Thousands [+]
Challenger Job Cuts 31105.00 32007 31190 31718 31438 63500 Persons [+]
Wages 22.03 22.45 22.72 22.79 22.87 26.5 USD/Hour [+]
Wage Growth 2.95 3.05 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 20.74 21.36 21.61 21.72 21.79 25.61 USD/Hour [+]
Minimum Wages 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.5 7.5 7.75 USD/Hour [+]
Employment Cost Index 0.80 0.59 0.66 0.63 0.63 0.63 percent [+]
Labor Market Conditions Index 1.50 2.7 2 1.7 1.9 0.5 Index Points [+]
Population 324.30 326 326 328 328 332 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66 [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1780.00 1827 1827 1827 1827 1827 USD/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 4130.00 3950 3968 4006 4053 3973 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 1496.20 1641 1640 1640 1640 1640 USD/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 1407.76 1373 1369 1366 1365 1362 USD/Month [+]
Part Time Employment 27142.00 27236 27240 27239 27239 27239 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 125975.00 126337 126659 126928 127151 128063 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 60.10 60.11 60.14 60.17 60.19 60.25 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60 2 2 2.2 2.3 2.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 243.79 245 246 247 248 268 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 251.63 253 254 255 256 265 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 1.74 1.73 1.74 1.74 1.74 percent [+]
GDP Deflator 112.77 114 115 115 115 134 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 112.80 113 114 115 116 130 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 2.00 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 121.60 121 121 121 121 119 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 122.50 122 122 122 122 122 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 0.90 1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.9 percent [+]
Pce Price Index 112.13 112 114 113 113 121 Index Points [+]
Inflation Expectations 2.54 2.42 2.51 2.64 2.64 2.64 percent [+]
Core Pce Price Index 112.73 113 114 114 114 120 Index Points [+]
CPI Housing Utilities 251.63 253 255 257 258 274 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 201.26 203 203 205 206 204 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.31 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3762757.00 3743507 3739027 3737247 3737222 3736975 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3497.60 3566 3627 3688 3748 4316 USD Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 13519.30 13673 13839 14008 14177 15856 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 121706.00 122597 122619 122624 122625 122625 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4431070.00 4444105 4446403 4446811 4446885 4446901 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16167100.00 16165054 16151934 16147552 16146099 16145378 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2103.46 2115 2125 2134 2141 2178 USD Billion [+]
Private Debt to GDP 199.60 199 199 199 199 198 percent [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 46367.00 -6745 -4598 -4604 -4584 -4585 USD Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -46507.00 -45000 -46700 -50000 -49300 -59000 USD Million [+]
Exports 192028.00 194000 194300 195000 196200 200000 USD Million [+]
Imports 238535.00 239000 241000 245000 245500 259000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -116781.00 -119000 -117000 -118200 -118000 -145000 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -2.60 -2.8 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 -3 percent [+]
External Debt -8217356.00 -8091195 -8072917 -7997614 -8044462 -8042720 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 99.25 99.24 99.34 99.45 99.51 99.42 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 57271.00 -4929 6365 8690 10456 12168 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 37539.00 37692 30649 37396 37300 35618 USD Million [+]
Net Long Term Tic Flows 91926.00 39048 33690 33699 33780 33757 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 8133.46 8133 8133 8133 8133 8133 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 9083.00 8930 9180 9091 9091 9150 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourism Revenues 20828.00 20845 20881 20855 20874 20866 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 6507601.00 6926394 6945690 6942028 6938756 6939692 [+]
Terrorism Index 4.88 4.61 4.96 4.97 4.98 5.03 [+]
Weapons Sales 9894.00 9508 9467 9372 9277 9574 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 106.10 106 106 108 108 109 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.20 -2.9 -2.9 -3.9 -3.9 -7.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -90233.00 -26922 -47471 -54229 -54768 -55998 USD Million [+]
Government Spending 2901.20 2900 2898 2896 2895 2888 USD Billion [+]
Government Revenues 338660.00 322304 296799 291835 291218 290893 USD Million [+]
Government Debt 19844554.00 19981502 20109181 20235383 20359620 21501417 USD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 428894.00 363866 347070 343446 342993 343269 USD Million [+]
Military Expenditure 606232.60 659261 651485 702472 703459 771394 USD Million [+]
Government Spending To Gdp 34.00 32.82 31.22 31.13 31.04 30.87 percent [+]
Asylum Applications 12026.00 12201 12218 12226 12228 12229 Persons [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Services PMI 54.20 52.4 52.7 52.9 53 54.8 Index Points [+]
Business Confidence 57.80 52.4 51.5 52 52.3 52 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 53.20 53.8 53 52.7 52.9 53 [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 57.40 57.5 57.41 57.2 57.3 57.37 percent [+]
Composite Pmi 54.20 53.8 52 52.4 52.7 55.1 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.00 2 3 2.4 1.9 1.1 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.40 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.20 2.1 2 1.7 1.7 1.9 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 76.60 75.9 76 76.4 76.6 78 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 6.50 0.3 -1.2 0.33 0.32 0.4 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 6.70 0.28 0.33 0.31 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.20 0.2 0.1 0.19 0.19 0.1 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation -0.30 0.22 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.26 percent [+]
New Orders 464862.00 462493 461235 460802 460645 460552 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.80 0.4 -0.5 0.28 0.28 0.2 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.30 0.1 -0.8 0.15 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 2.60 32.4 70.07 29.09 25.8 72.03 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.60 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.2 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 23591.00 22994 22746 22761 22726 22830 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1567.40 1571 1589 1576 1584 1581 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 103.60 101 95 94 97 97 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 9.80 9 8 7 9 5 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 55.50 52.98 52.55 53.54 52.94 53.12 percent [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 15.00 14.3 14 15 14.5 2 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.2 0.2 0.05 [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 19.50 12 9 8 10 6.3 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14.00 6 4 3 6 3 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 65.70 55 54 53 53.5 64.46 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.51 15 14 18 18 18.7 Million [+]
Car Production 3.15 3.86 3.61 3.89 3.89 4.04 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 580.98 563 543 551 554 549 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -7.21 1 -0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 17.00 10.17 8.71 8.66 8.65 8.65 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -1015.00 5.77 14.49 14.5 14.5 14.5 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 181.55 180 179 178 177 173 Index Points [+]
Small Business Sentiment 51.67 52.71 52.53 53.49 54.78 54.76 [+]
Steel Production 6707.00 6400 6470 6675 6637 7150 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 9.90 10.8 2 7 6.4 1 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 7 7 6 6 6 [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.70 5.7 5.7 5.71 5.73 5.69 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 3.00 3 3 3 3 3 [+]
Corruption Index 74.00 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 75.5 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 18.00 16 16 16 16 16 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.3 0.2 0.28 0.28 0.4 percent [+]
Consumer Confidence 93.10 95 94 94 94.5 86.7 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.80 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.7 4 percent [+]
Retail Sales Ex Autos -0.20 0.21 0.29 0.29 0.3 0.3 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 11701.30 11819 11862 11912 11956 12292 USD Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 14490.10 14636 14747 14858 14968 16068 USD Billion [+]
Personal Spending 0.10 0.32 0.4 0.31 0.31 0.5 percent [+]
Personal Income 0.40 0.32 0.6 0.31 0.31 0.31 percent [+]
Personal Savings 5.50 5.36 5.36 5.37 5.37 5.37 percent [+]
Private Sector Credit 9250.51 9328 9403 9474 9541 10049 USD Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 18.40 17.17 17.13 17.14 17.14 17.14 USD Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 4.13 4 4.15 4.15 4.25 5.25 percent [+]
Economic Optimism Index 50.20 50.09 49.95 49.9 49.88 49.87 [+]
Redbook Index 2.10 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.54 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 79.50 79.5 80 80.2 80.3 82.6 percent of GDP [+]
Chain Store Sales 4514.00 4757 4790 4782 4784 4783 USD Million [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Building Permits 1275.00 1150 1141 1266 1266 1315 Thousand [+]
Housing Starts 1215.00 1190 1160 1100 1090 1280 Thousand [+]
New Home Sales 610.00 550 570 610 560 590 Thousand [+]
Pending Home Sales -1.70 -1.9 3 -0.6 0.5 1.2 percent [+]
Existing Home Sales 5520.00 5500 5300 5220 5190 5000 Thousand [+]
Construction Spending 0.00 2 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 percent [+]
Nahb Housing Market Index 64.00 62 56 60 61 53 [+]
Housing Index 0.40 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Rate 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17 4.17 6.5 percent [+]
Mortgage Applications 0.40 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 percent [+]
Home Ownership Rate 63.60 63.59 63.72 63.63 63.5 63.73 percent [+]
Case Shiller Home Price Index 198.97 196 197 198 199 211 Index Points [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Personal Income Tax Rate 39.60 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 percent [+]
Corporate Tax Rate 38.90 38.9 38.9 34 34 28 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 21.30 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 13.65 13.64 13.65 13.65 13.65 13.65 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 7.65 percent [+]