The yield on China's 10-year government bond hovered around 2.8% since mid-February, after touching two-year lows of 2.67% in January, as investors weigh signs of a slowing economy and prospects of a more aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. Partial or full lockdowns in several cities, including Beijing and Shanghai severely hurt consumer spending and disrupted industrial production. An ongoing property debt crisis and several defaults at developers including the Evergrande Group also added to concerns about the economic recovery, despite pledges for sustained support from the PBoC. At the same time, the Fed is set to tight monetary policy faster and the interest differential on Chinese and US government debt yields has narrowed, decreasing the appeal of buying riskier Chinese assets.
Historically, the China Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 4.80 in September of 2007. China Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May of 2022.
The China Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 2.85 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 2.93 in 12 months time.