China's benchmark 10-year bond yield dropped back below 3% in late October, down from a three-month high of 3.06% touched earlier in the month, after the FX regulator signaled willingness to act if the currency market is hit by greater fluctuations, suggesting the pace of the yuan appreciation remains a concern for the Chinese authorities. Meanwhile, a surprise interest payment by highly-indebted China Evergrande Group supported overall sentiment. Looking ahead, the yield is seen falling to 2.5% by the end of next year, due to slowing growth and anticipated easing from the central bank.
Historically, the China Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 4.80 in September of 2007. China Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on October of 2021.
The China Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 3.04 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 3.12 in 12 months time.