The yield on the German 10-year Bund fell below 1% in May, as concerns of economic contraction dampened risk sentiment and strengthened the demand for safer securities. Investors continue to reassess the magnitude of tighter monetary policy by the ECB, with lower bond yields in Europe pointing to markets pricing 105bps in rate hikes this year compared to previous expectations of 110bps. ECB policymakers have widely signaled a 25bps increase in the benchmark rate in July, while governing council member Knot stated the central bank should not rule out a 50bps hike. Such a hiking path reinforces concerns about the Euro Area growth outlook, as the war in Ukraine will soon take a big toll on the economy. The European Commission cut its growth forecast for the bloc to 2.7% this year from 4.0% predicted in February, and raised its inflation projection to 6.1% this year and to 2.7% in 2023, well above the European Central Bank target of 2.0%.
Historically, the Germany Government Bond 10Y reached an all time high of 9.13 in September of 1990. Germany Government Bond 10Y - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May of 2022.
The Germany Government Bond 10Y is expected to trade at 1.04 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 1.39 in 12 months time.