The MNI Chicago Business Barometer for the US fell to 58.7 in March of 2019 from 64.7 in February, below market expectations of 61. The March fall was led by three of the five components, with employment and supplier deliveries both increasing, albeit marginally. Production and new orders pulled back from last month. Also, the prices paid indicator saw the biggest monthly fall in 17 months, hitting the lowest level since August 2017. Considering Q1, the MNI Chicago PMI averaged 60, down 3.5 percent from Q4 2018 and 3.3 percent from Q1 2018. Chicago Pmi in the United States averaged 54.84 Index Points from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 78.60 Index Points in January of 1973 and a record low of 21.20 Index Points in June of 1980.
Chicago Pmi in the United States is expected to be 59.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Pmi in the United States to stand at 51.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago PMI is projected to trend around 56.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.