United States Durable Goods Orders

New orders for US manufactured durable goods surged 0.8 percent from a month earlier in November 2018, following a downwardly revised 4.3 percent plunge in October and missing market expectations of a 1.6 percent advance. Transportation equipment drove the increase. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.6 percent in November, after a 0.5 percent gain in the previous month. Durable Goods Orders in the United States averaged 0.33 percent from 1992 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 23.50 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -19 percent in August of 2014.

Durable Goods Orders in the United States is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Durable Goods Orders in the United States to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Durable Goods Orders is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Calendar	GMT		Actual	Previous	Consensus	TEForecast
2018-09-27	12:30 PM	Durable Goods Orders MoM	4.5%	-1.2%	2%	1.2%
2018-10-25	12:30 PM	Durable Goods Orders MoM	0.8%	4.6%	-1%	-1.8%
2018-11-21	01:30 PM	Durable Goods Orders MoM	-4.4%	-0.1%	-2.5%	-1.2%
2018-12-21	01:30 PM	Durable Goods Orders MoM	0.8%	-4.3%	1.6%	0.8%
2019-01-28	01:30 PM	Durable Goods Orders MoM		0.8%	1.8%	2.5%
2019-02-27	01:30 PM	Durable Goods Orders MoM
2019-03-26	12:30 PM	Durable Goods Orders MoM

US Durable Goods Orders Rebound Weaker than Expected

New orders for US manufactured durable goods surged 0.8 percent from a month earlier in November 2018, following a downwardly revised 4.3 percent plunge in October and missing market expectations of a 1.6 percent advance. Transportation equipment drove the increase.

Demand for transport equipment jumped 2.9 percent in November (vs -12.3 percent in October), led by defense aircraft and parts (31.5 percent vs -55.3 percent) and civilian aircraft (6.7 percent vs -28.7 percent), while orders for motor vehicles and parts fell slightly (-0.2 percent vs 0.5 percent). Demand also rose for both primary metals (1 percent vs -2.7 percent) and fabricated metal products (0.5 percent vs 1.6 percent). Meanwhile, orders for computers and electronic products were unchanged (vs 2.9 percent in October) while decreases were recorded in demand for machinery (-1.7 percent vs 0.2 percent) and electrical equipment, appliances, and components (-0.7 percent vs 1.1 percent).

Excluding transportation, new orders fell 0.3 percent (vs 0.4 percent in October). Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.1 percent (vs -1.4 percent in October).

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in November, up three of the last four months, increased $1.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $256.7 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $1.8 billion or 2.0 percent to $89.5 billion.

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.7 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,181.7 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent October decrease. Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $812.4 billion.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in November, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $412.8 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent October increase. Primary metals, up twenty-four of the last twenty-five months, led the increase, $0.3 billion or 0.9 percent to $36.1 billion.

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in November increased $0.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $75.4 billion. Shipments increased $1.9 billion or 2.4 percent to $79.6 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $4.2 billion or 0.6 percent to $710.6 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $180.5 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in November increased $1.8 billion or 15.4 percent to $13.9 billion. Shipments decreased $0.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $11.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $2.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $156.0 billion. Inventories decreased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $22.8 billio

US Census Bureau | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
12/21/2018 1:45:38 PM

News

US Durable Goods Orders Post Biggest Fall in Over a Year
New orders for US manufactured durable goods slumped 4.4 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent decline in September and worse than market expectations of a 2.5 percent drop. It was the largest fall in durable goods orders since July 2017.
Published on 2018-11-21

US Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Increase
New orders for US manufactured durable goods unexpectedly rose 0.8 percent month-over-month in September of 2018, following an upwardly revised 4.6 percent rise in August and beating market expectations of a 1 percent drop. Transportation equipment drove the increase as orders for motor vehicles and parts went up 1.3 percent and orders for defense capital jumped 119.1 percent. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, seen as a proxy for business spending plans, edged down 0.1 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in August.
Published on 2018-10-25

US Durable Goods Orders Jump 4.5%
New orders for US manufactured durable goods surged 4.5 percent from a month earlier in August 2018, following a downwardly revised 1.2 percent drop in July and easily beating market expectations of a 2 percent growth. Transportation equipment drove the increase as volatile demand for civilian aircraft rose.
Published on 2018-09-27

US Durable Goods Orders Fall More than Expected
New orders for US manufactured durable goods declined 1.7 percent from a month earlier in July 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.7 percent advance in June and compared with market expectations of a 0.5 percent drop. Transportation equipment drove the decrease as volatile demand for civilian aircraft fell.
Published on 2018-08-24

United States Business	Last	Previous	Highest	Lowest	Unit
Business Confidence	54.10	59.30	77.50	29.40	Index Points	[+]
Manufacturing PMI	53.80	55.30	57.90	50.70		[+]
Services PMI	54.40	54.70	61.00	49.30	Index Points	[+]
Non Manufacturing PMI	57.60	60.70	62.00	37.60		[+]
Composite Pmi	54.40	54.70	61.00	50.00	Index Points	[+]
Industrial Production	4.00	4.10	62.00	-33.70	percent	[+]
Industrial Production Mom	0.30	0.40	16.60	-10.40	percent	[+]
Manufacturing Production	3.20	2.10	67.90	-39.40	percent	[+]
Capacity Utilization	78.73	78.60	89.39	66.71	percent	[+]
Durable Goods Orders	0.80	-4.30	23.50	-19.00	percent	[+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense	-0.10	-1.40	26.00	-19.70	percent	[+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation	-0.30	0.40	7.50	-6.80	percent	[+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation	0.30	0.10	4.60	-7.20	percent	[+]
New Orders	502677.00	515334.00	565232.00	223500.00	USD Million	[+]
Factory Orders	-2.10	0.20	10.60	-10.00	percent	[+]
Business Inventories	0.60	0.50	1.30	-2.00	percent	[+]
Changes in Inventories	89.77	-36.81	166.37	-245.13	USD Billion	[+]
Wholesale Inventories	0.80	0.70	2.10	-2.00	percent	[+]
Bankruptcies	22103.00	22245.00	82446.00	19695.00	Companies	[+]
Corporate Profits	2076.82	2007.53	2076.82	14.70	USD Billion	[+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index	104.40	104.80	108.80	80.10	Index Points	[+]
Ism New York Index	65.40	67.80	88.80	23.40	percent	[+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index	17.00	9.10	58.50	-57.90	Index Points	[+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	3.90	11.50	39.00	-34.40	Index Points	[+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	-8.00	14.00	29.00	-44.00	Index Points	[+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index	0.22	0.00	2.77	-5.22		[+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	-5.10	17.60	47.10	-60.10	Index Points	[+]
Chicago Pmi	65.40	66.40	81.00	20.70	Index Points	[+]
Car Production	3.00	2.71	9.92	1.29	Million Units	[+]
Car Registrations	431.72	436.69	1149.00	331.50	Thousand	[+]
Total Vehicle Sales	17.55	17.49	21.77	9.05	Million	[+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change	-2.68	-1.68	14.42	-15.22	BBL/1Million	[+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change	-81.00	-91.00	147.00	-359.00	Billion cf	[+]
Gasoline Stocks Change	7503.00	8066.00	11456.00	-8428.00	Thousand Barrels	[+]
Leading Economic Index	124.80	124.54	124.80	46.91	Index Points	[+]
Internet Speed	18747.58	17235.62	18747.58	3609.31	KBps	[+]
IP Addresses	128949703.00	127873899.00	146874246.00	89399946.00	IP	[+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change	-0.56	-6.27	14.30	-12.40	BBL/1Million	[+]
Crude Oil Rigs	852.00	873.00	1609.00	98.00		[+]
Corruption Index	75.00	74.00	78.00	71.00	Points	[+]
Corruption Rank	16.00	18.00	24.00	14.00		[+]
Competitiveness Index	85.64	84.84	85.64	5.42	Points	[+]
Competitiveness Rank	1.00	1.00	7.00	1.00		[+]
Ease of Doing Business	8.00	6.00	8.00	4.00		[+]
Steel Production	7425.00	7571.00	11951.00	3799.00	Thousand Tonnes	[+]
Mining Production	13.40	12.90	108.20	-28.80	percent	[+]

Durable Goods Orders refer to new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of hard goods which meant to last at least three years. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Durable Goods Orders - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Durable Goods Orders - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.