The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States plummeted 26.4 points from the previous month to -8.6 in June 2019, missing market expectations of +10. That was the largest monthly decline on record, due to declines in both new orders (-21.7 points to -12.0) and employment (-8.2 points to -3.5), while shipments increased at a slower pace (-6.6 points to +9.7). In addition, unfilled orders fell, and delivery times and inventories moved slightly lower. On the price front, input cost inflation was little changed, while selling price inflation slowed. Looking ahead, indexes assessing the six-month outlook indicated that firms were less optimistic about future conditions than they were last month. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 8.76 Index Points from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 39 Index Points in April of 2004 and a record low of -34.40 Index Points in February of 2009.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be 7.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 8.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 4.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.