The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas fell to 17.6 in November 2018 from 29.4 in the previous month. It was the lowest reading since August 2017. The production index moved down 9.2 points to 8.4 in November, and the new orders and growth rate of new orders indexes declined to 9.7 and 4.8, respectively, representing their lowest readings in 20 months. In addition, the capacity utilization index dropped 6.0 points to 9.4, and the shipments index fell 8.9 points to 7.7, both at their lowest levels in at least 20 months. Labor market measures suggested continued but slower employment growth and longer workweeks in November: the employment index retreated 8.0 points to 15.9; and the hours worked index edged down 1.6 points to 4.9. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 3.28 Index Points from 2004 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 47.10 Index Points in June of 2004 and a record low of -60.10 Index Points in February of 2009.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be 27.90 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 19.36 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 12.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.