The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' general business activity index for manufacturing in Texas rose to -6.3 in July 2019 from a three-year low of -12.1 in June and compared with market expectations of -5. The production index increased to 9.3 from 8.9 in June and the growth rate of orders index rebounded into positive territory, rising nine points to 2.7. Additionally, the shipments index jumped nine points to 10.2; and the capacity utilization index advanced to 11.2. Labor market measures suggested robust growth in employment and work hours: the employment index went up seven points to 16.0, and the hours worked index pushed further above average with a reading of 6.6. Looking ahead, expectations regarding future business conditions improved in July, as the index of future general business activity returned to positive territory, increasing nine points to 6.0 and the future company outlook index moved up six points to 9.1. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 3.05 Index Points from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 47.60 Index Points in June of 2004 and a record low of -59.90 Index Points in February of 2009.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States is expected to be -4.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States to stand at 10.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is projected to trend around 5.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.