The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-2.25 percent during its July meeting, the first rate cut since the financial crisis, as inflation remains subdued amid heightened concerns about the economic outlook and ongoing trade tensions with China. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.66 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.

Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 2.25 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in the United States to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Rate is projected to trend around 2.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Fed Funds Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-20 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-05-01 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-06-19 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-07-31 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2.5% 2.25% 2.25%
2019-08-20 10:00 PM Fed Quarles Speech
2019-08-21 06:00 PM FOMC Minutes
2019-08-22 02:00 PM Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium



Fed Lowers Rates, Leaves Door Open to Further Cuts

The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-2.25 percent during its July meeting, the first rate cut since the financial crisis, as inflation remains subdued amid heightened concerns about the economic outlook and ongoing trade tensions with China. The central bank also said it "will act as appropriate to sustain" growth but during the press conference Chairman Powell said he did not view the move as the start of a lengthy series of rate cuts.

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.


Federal Reserve | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
7/31/2019 8:23:52 PM



United States Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 2.25 2.50 20.00 0.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3260366.00 3274900.00 4075039.00 48362.00 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3852.40 3831.70 3852.40 138.90 USD Billion [+]
Interbank Rate 2.14 2.12 10.63 0.22 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 14872.10 14755.10 14872.10 286.60 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3773459.00 3775166.00 4473864.00 672444.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 17215637.00 17129807.00 17262875.00 697581.70 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 128338.00 126967.00 153075.00 12128.00 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2356.33 2346.38 2356.33 13.65 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -7710.00 -32785.00 118012.00 -77351.00 USD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 196.70 201.80 212.90 156.20 percent [+]


United States Fed Funds Rate

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Fed Funds Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.25 2.50 20.00 0.25 1971 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 74.97 Aug/19
Turkey 19.75 Jul/19
Mexico 8.00 Aug/19
Russia 7.25 Jul/19
South Africa 6.50 Jul/19
Brazil 6.00 Jul/19
Indonesia 5.75 Jul/19
India 5.40 Aug/19
China 4.35 Jul/19
Saudi Arabia 2.75 Aug/19
United States 2.25 Jul/19
Singapore 1.94 Jul/19
Canada 1.75 Aug/19
South Korea 1.50 Jul/19
Australia 1.00 Aug/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Aug/19
Euro Area 0.00 Jul/19
France 0.00 Jul/19
Germany 0.00 Jul/19
Italy 0.00 Jul/19
Netherlands 0.00 Jul/19
Spain 0.00 Jul/19
Japan -0.10 Aug/19
Switzerland -0.75 Jun/19


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