The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-2.25 percent during its July meeting, the first rate cut since the financial crisis, as inflation remains subdued amid heightened concerns about the economic outlook and ongoing trade tensions with China. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.66 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.

Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in the United States to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Rate is projected to trend around 2.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Fed Funds Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-03-20 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-05-01 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-06-19 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-07-31 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2.5% 2.25% 2.25%
2019-09-18 06:00 PM FOMC Economic Projections
2019-09-18 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2% 2%
2019-10-09 06:00 PM FOMC Minutes



Fed to Act as Appropriate to Support Growth: Powell

The Federal Reserve will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion with a strong labor market and inflation near its 2 percent objective, Chair Jerome H. Powell said on Friday at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. The chairman noted that the US economy continues to perform well, but faces significant risks due to ongoing trade tensions; global economic slowdown, notably in Germany and China; and geopolitical uncertainty, including the growing possibility of a hard Brexit, rising tensions in Hong Kong, and the dissolution of the Italian government.

Excerpts from the speech at the “Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium:

We have much experience in addressing typical macroeconomic developments under this framework. But fitting trade policy uncertainty into this framework is a new challenge. Setting trade policy is the business of Congress and the Administration, not that of the Fed. Our assignment is to use monetary policy to foster our statutory goals. In principle, anything that affects the outlook for employment and inflation could also affect the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and that could include uncertainty about trade policy. There are, however, no recent precedents to guide any policy response to the current situation. Moreover, while monetary policy is a powerful tool that works to support consumer spending, business investment, and public confidence, it cannot provide a settled rulebook for international trade. We can, however, try to look through what may be passing events, focus on how trade developments are affecting the outlook, and adjust policy to promote our objectives.

This approach is illustrated by the way incoming data have shaped the likely path of policy this year. The outlook for the U.S. economy since the start of the year has continued to be a favorable one. Business investment and manufacturing have weakened, but solid job growth and rising wages have been driving robust consumption and supporting moderate growth overall.

As the year has progressed, we have been monitoring three factors that are weighing on this favorable outlook: slowing global growth, trade policy uncertainty, and muted inflation. The global growth outlook has been deteriorating since the middle of last year. Trade policy uncertainty seems to be playing a role in the global slowdown and in weak manufacturing and capital spending in the United States. Inflation fell below our objective at the start of the year. It appears to be moving back up closer to our symmetric 2 percent objective, but there are concerns about a more prolonged shortfall.

Committee participants have generally reacted to these developments and the risks they pose by shifting down their projections of the appropriate federal funds rate path. Along with July's rate cut, the shifts in the anticipated path of policy have eased financial conditions and help explain why the outlook for inflation and employment remains largely favorable.

Turning to the current context, we are carefully watching developments as we assess their implications for the U.S. outlook and the path of monetary policy. The three weeks since our July FOMC meeting have been eventful, beginning with the announcement of new tariffs on imports from China. We have seen further evidence of a global slowdown, notably in Germany and China. Geopolitical events have been much in the news, including the growing possibility of a hard Brexit, rising tensions in Hong Kong, and the dissolution of the Italian government. Financial markets have reacted strongly to this complex, turbulent picture. Equity markets have been volatile. Long-term bond rates around the world have moved down sharply to near post-crisis lows. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has continued to perform well overall, driven by consumer spending. Job creation has slowed from last year's pace but is still above overall labor force growth. Inflation seems to be moving up closer to 2 percent. Based on our assessment of the implications of these developments, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.


Federal Reserve | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
8/23/2019 2:29:45 PM



United States Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 2.25 2.25 20.00 0.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3271409.00 3260366.00 4075039.00 48362.00 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3839.50 3852.40 3852.40 138.90 USD Billion [+]
Interbank Rate 2.12 2.12 10.63 0.22 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 14952.80 14872.10 14952.80 286.60 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3744394.00 3741539.00 4473864.00 672444.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 17461045.00 17420201.00 17523056.00 697581.70 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 128845.00 128338.00 153075.00 12128.00 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2363.08 2356.33 2363.08 13.65 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment -7710.00 -32785.00 118012.00 -77351.00 USD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 196.70 201.80 212.90 156.20 percent [+]


United States Fed Funds Rate

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Fed Funds Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.25 2.25 20.00 0.25 1971 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 85.99 Sep/19
Turkey 16.50 Sep/19
Mexico 8.00 Aug/19
Russia 7.00 Sep/19
South Africa 6.50 Aug/19
Brazil 6.00 Aug/19
Indonesia 5.50 Aug/19
India 5.40 Aug/19
China 4.25 Sep/19
Saudi Arabia 2.75 Aug/19
United States 2.25 Aug/19
Canada 1.75 Sep/19
Singapore 1.74 Aug/19
South Korea 1.50 Aug/19
Australia 1.00 Sep/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Aug/19
Euro Area 0.00 Sep/19
France 0.00 Sep/19
Germany 0.00 Sep/19
Italy 0.00 Sep/19
Netherlands 0.00 Sep/19
Spain 0.00 Sep/19
Japan -0.10 Aug/19
Switzerland -0.75 Aug/19


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