The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 2.25-2.5 percent during its December meeting and lowered forecasts for interest rate hikes in 2019 amid recent volatility in financial markets and slowing global growth. It is the fourth hike this year on the back of solid economic growth and strong labor market and despite heavy criticism from President Donald Trump. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.69 percent from 1971 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.

Interest Rate in the United States is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in the United States to stand at 2.75 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Fed Funds Rate is projected to trend around 3.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Fed Funds Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-08-01 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2% 2% 2% 2%
2018-09-26 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2% 2.25% 2.25%
2018-11-08 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
2018-12-19 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.25% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-01-30 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5%
2019-03-20 06:00 PM FOMC Economic Projections
2019-03-20 06:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 2.5%



Fed Cautious on Future Rate Hikes

Federal Reserve officials revised down their assessments of the appropriate path for monetary policy amid growing concerns about volatility in financial markets, trade tensions and uncertain global growth, minutes from the last FOMC meeting showed. Policymakers also noted that the central bank could afford to be patient about further policy firming as inflation remains muted.

Excerpts from the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 18-19, 2018:

In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants generally judged that the economy was evolving about as anticipated, with real economic activity rising at a strong rate, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation near the Committee's objective. Based on their current assessments, most participants expressed the view that it would be appropriate for the Committee to raise the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points at this meeting. A few participants, however, favored no change in the target range at this meeting, judging that the absence of signs of upward inflation pressure afforded the Committee some latitude to wait and see how the data would develop amid the recent rise in financial market volatility and increased uncertainty about the global economic growth outlook.

With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants generally judged that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would most likely be consistent with a sustained economic expansion, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near 2 percent over the medium term. With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier. Against this backdrop, many participants expressed the view that, especially in an environment of muted inflation pressures, the Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming. A number of participants noted that, before making further changes to the stance of policy, it was important for the Committee to assess factors such as how the risks that had become more pronounced in recent months might unfold and to what extent they would affect economic activity, and the effects of past actions to remove policy accommodation, which were likely still working their way through the economy.

Participants emphasized that the Committee's approach to setting the stance of policy should be importantly guided by the implications of incoming data for the economic outlook. They noted that their expectations for the path of the federal funds rate were based on their current assessment of the economic outlook. Monetary policy was not on a preset course; neither the pace nor the ultimate endpoint of future rate increases was known. If incoming information prompted meaningful reassessments of the economic outlook and attendant risks, either to the upside or the downside, their policy outlook would change. Various factors, such as the recent tightening in financial conditions and risks to the global outlook, on the one hand, and further indicators of tightness in labor markets and possible risks to financial stability from a prolonged period of tight resource utilization, on the other hand, were noted in this context.

Participants discussed ideas for effectively communicating to the public the Committee's data-dependent approach, including options for transitioning away from forward guidance language in future postmeeting statements. Several participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate over upcoming meetings to remove forward guidance entirely and replace it with language emphasizing the data-dependent nature of policy decisions.


Federal Reserve | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
1/9/2019 7:31:11 PM



United States Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 2.50 2.25 20.00 0.25 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 3400839.00 3476418.00 4075024.00 48362.00 USD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 3780.90 3716.30 3780.90 138.90 USD Billion [+]
Interbank Rate 2.76 2.78 10.63 0.22 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 14454.90 14317.60 14454.90 286.60 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4102109.00 4121289.00 4473864.00 672444.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 16821077.00 16821077.00 16853914.00 697581.70 USD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 123503.00 123572.00 153075.00 12128.00 USD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 2316.85 2276.93 2316.85 13.65 USD Billion [+]
Foreign Bond Investment 1720.00 -11539.00 118012.00 -74329.00 USD Million [+]
Private Debt to GDP 202.80 202.00 213.50 155.70 percent [+]


United States Fed Funds Rate

In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Fed Funds Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.50 2.25 20.00 0.25 1971 - 2018 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 57.25 Jan/19
Turkey 24.00 Jan/19
Mexico 8.25 Dec/18
Russia 7.75 Dec/18
South Africa 6.75 Dec/18
Brazil 6.50 Dec/18
India 6.50 Dec/18
Indonesia 6.00 Jan/19
China 4.35 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Dec/18
United States 2.50 Dec/18
Singapore 1.76 Dec/18
Canada 1.75 Jan/19
South Korea 1.75 Dec/18
Australia 1.50 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.75 Dec/18
Euro Area 0.00 Dec/18
France 0.00 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Italy 0.00 Dec/18
Netherlands 0.00 Dec/18
Spain 0.00 Dec/18
Japan -0.10 Dec/18
Switzerland -0.75 Dec/18


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