The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.18 in January 2026 from -0.21 in December, marking its highest level since February 2025 and signaling a pickup in US economic activity at the start of the year. Production-related indicators drove the improvement, contributing +0.19 compared with -0.03 previously, while employment indicators edged up to +0.01 from -0.11. The sales, orders, and inventories category remained slightly negative at -0.02, though improved from -0.04, and personal consumption and housing made a neutral contribution after subtracting -0.04 in December. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to 0.18 points in January from -0.21 points in December of 2025. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0.00 points from 1967 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 6.30 points in June of 2020 and a record low of -18.26 points in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2026.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to 0.18 points in January from -0.21 points in December of 2025. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.20 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.40 points in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-02-23 01:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Dec -0.21 -0.15 0.1
2026-02-23 01:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Jan 0.18 -0.21 0.3
2026-03-23 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Feb 0.18

Components Last Previous Unit Reference
CFNAI Employment Index 0.01 -0.11 points Jan 2026
CFNAI Personal Consumption and Housing Index 0.00 -0.04 points Jan 2026
CFNAI Production Index 0.19 -0.03 points Jan 2026
CFNAI Sales Orders and Inventories Index -0.02 -0.04 points Jan 2026

Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Building Permits 1455.00 1388.00 Thousand Dec 2025
ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.40 52.60 points Feb 2026
Business Inventories MoM 0.10 0.00 percent Dec 2025
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.18 -0.21 points Jan 2026
Consumer Spending 16682.50 16585.90 USD Billion Dec 2025
Housing Starts 1404.00 1322.00 Thousand units Dec 2025
Industrial Production YoY 2.30 1.30 percent Jan 2026
Manufacturing Production YoY 2.40 1.50 percent Jan 2026
New Orders 617527.00 621859.00 USD Million Dec 2025
Non Farm Payrolls -92.00 126.00 Thousand Feb 2026
Nonfarm Payrolls Private -86.00 146.00 Thousand Feb 2026
Personal Spending MoM 0.40 0.40 percent Dec 2025
Retail Sales MoM -0.20 0.00 percent Jan 2026
Unemployment Rate 4.40 4.30 percent Feb 2026


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.18 -0.21 6.30 -18.26 1967 - 2026 points Monthly
NSA

News Stream
Chicago Fed Activity Index Turns Positive in January
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.18 in January 2026 from -0.21 in December, marking its highest level since February 2025 and signaling a pickup in US economic activity at the start of the year. Production-related indicators drove the improvement, contributing +0.19 compared with -0.03 previously, while employment indicators edged up to +0.01 from -0.11. The sales, orders, and inventories category remained slightly negative at -0.02, though improved from -0.04, and personal consumption and housing made a neutral contribution after subtracting -0.04 in December.
2026-02-23
CFNAI Increases in November
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in the US rose to -0.04 in November 2025 from -0.42 in October which was the lowest in ten months, signalling that economic growth increased on the month. Production-related indicators contributed +0.08, up from -0.26 in October. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.03 in November, unchanged from October. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.07, up from -0.11 in October and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.02, up from -0.03 in October. Meanwhile, the CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to -0.24 in November from -0.43 in October.
2026-01-26
CFNAI Slightly Up in September
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.21 in September 2025 from -0.31 in August, according to delayed data, signaling a milder contraction in economic activity. Despite the improvement, the index remained in negative territory for a sixth consecutive month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.10 to the index, improving from -0.13 in August. The sales, orders, and inventories component weakened slightly, contributing -0.07 compared with -0.05 previously, while the personal consumption and housing category also deteriorated to -0.06 from -0.03. In contrast, employment-related indicators turned positive, contributing +0.01 in September after -0.11 in August, providing a modest offset to broader economic softness.
2025-12-22