The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.45 in September 2019 from an upwardly revised +0.15 in the previous month and compared with market forecasts of -0.37. Production-related indicators contributed -0.37, down from +0.19 in August; sales, orders, and inventories contributed -0.02 from -0.01 in the prior month; and personal consumption and housing went down to -0.04 from a flat reading. Meantime, employment-related indicators contributed -0.02, up slightly from -0.03. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in September from 3.7 percent in August, but total nonfarm payrolls increased by 136,000 after rising by 168,000 in August. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.79 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.28 in December of 1974. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-07-22 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Jun -0.02 -0.03 0.10 -0.7
2019-08-26 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Jul -0.36 0.03 0.11
2019-09-23 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Aug 0.10 -0.41 -0.35 -0.06
2019-10-28 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Sep -0.45 0.15 -0.37 -0.21
2019-11-25 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Oct -0.45 -0.5
2019-12-23 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Nov -0.3


United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 48.30 47.80 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Services PMI 50.60 50.90 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 54.70 52.60 62.00 37.80 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.30 51.10 57.90 50.30 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.90 51.00 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.10 0.40 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.40 0.80 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.90 -0.40 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.50 77.90 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -1.10 0.30 23.20 -18.40 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.20 -0.90 25.50 -19.20 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.30 0.30 6.30 -10.20 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation -0.10 -0.20 4.60 -7.00 percent [+]
New Orders 496651.00 499585.00 549482.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.60 -0.10 10.40 -9.70 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.00 0.30 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.02 69.40 173.21 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories -0.40 0.10 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22910.00 22483.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1857.53 1791.42 1873.90 14.67 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 102.40 101.80 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 47.70 42.80 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 4.00 2.00 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 5.60 12.00 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 8.00 -9.00 27.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.45 0.15 2.79 -5.28 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index -5.10 1.50 47.60 -59.90 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 43.20 47.10 78.60 21.20 Index Points [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.20 17.00 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Car Production 2.57 2.60 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 421.79 428.44 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 7.93 5.70 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 34.00 89.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -2828.00 -3037.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 129.19 128.81 129.19 45.48 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 4.26 -0.71 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 684.00 691.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 83.67 85.64 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 2.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 6.00 8.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7072.00 7396.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index 8.00 11.00 37.00 -32.00 Index Points [+]
Mining Production 2.60 5.00 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.45 0.15 2.79 -5.28 1967 - 2019 Monthly




Country Last Previous
United States -0.45 Sep/19 0.15


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