The Chicago Fed National Activity Index jumped to a 3-month high +0.76 in October of 2021 from -0.18 in September, pointing to a pickup in economic growth, led by improvements in production related indicators (contribution of +0.44, up from -0.35 in September), as industrial production surged 1.6%, rebounding from a 1.3% drop in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved up to +0.05 from +0.01; employment-related indicators contributed +0.24, up from +0.16; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked up to +0.03 from +0.01. On the other hand, the index’s three-month moving average edged down to +0.21 from +0.22. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 5.99 in June of 2020 and a record low of -17.74 in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2021.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.20 in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2021-10-25 12:30 PM Sep -0.13 0.05 0.18
2021-11-22 01:30 PM Oct 0.76 -0.18 0.9
2021-12-22 01:30 PM Nov 0.76


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.76 -0.18 points Oct/21

News Stream
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Jumps in October
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index jumped to a 3-month high +0.76 in October of 2021 from -0.18 in September, pointing to a pickup in economic growth, led by improvements in production related indicators (contribution of +0.44, up from -0.35 in September), as industrial production surged 1.6%, rebounding from a 1.3% drop in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved up to +0.05 from +0.01; employment-related indicators contributed +0.24, up from +0.16; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked up to +0.03 from +0.01. On the other hand, the index’s three-month moving average edged down to +0.21 from +0.22.
2021-11-22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 7-Month Low
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to -0.13 in September of 2021 from 0.05 in August, the lowest since April and showing economic growth in the US lost momentum for a second consecutive month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.37, down from -0.08 in August, as industrial production declined 1.3%. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to moved up to +0.07 from +0.01 and employment-related indicators contributed +0.16, up from +0.09. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category was unchanged at +0.02. Also, the index’s three-month moving average moved down to +0.25 in September from +0.38 in August.
2021-10-25
US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Edges Down
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.29 in August of 2021 from an upwardly revised 0.75 in July, pointing to slower, but still above-average growth. Production-related indicators contributed +0.11, down from +0.40 in July. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category moved down to +0.03 from +0.07 in July; and the contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category to the CFNAI decreased to +0.12 in August from +0.38 in July. Meanwhile, the personal consumption and housing category contributed +0.03, up from –0.09 in July. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to +0.43 in August from +0.36 in July.
2021-09-23

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.