The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.20 in March 2026, its lowest level since November 2025, down from a revised +0.03 in February. Three of the four key categories declined, with production-related indicators contributing -0.20 (down from +0.13 in February), sales, orders, and inventories subtracting -0.01 (from +0.05), and personal consumption and housing also at -0.01 (from neutral). Only employment-related indicators improved, adding +0.02 compared to -0.15 in February. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States decreased to -0.20 points in March from 0.03 points in February of 2026. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0.00 points from 1967 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 6.31 points in June of 2020 and a record low of -18.28 points in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2026.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States decreased to -0.20 points in March from 0.03 points in February of 2026. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.10 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.40 points in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-03-23 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Feb -0.11 0.20 0.27
2026-04-23 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Mar -0.20 0.03 0.2
2026-05-25 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Apr -0.20



Components Last Previous Unit Reference
CFNAI Employment Index 0.02 -0.15 points Mar 2026
CFNAI Personal Consumption and Housing Index -0.01 0.00 points Mar 2026
CFNAI Production Index -0.20 0.13 points Mar 2026
CFNAI Sales Orders and Inventories Index -0.01 0.05 points Mar 2026

Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Building Permits 1363.00 1538.00 Thousand Mar 2026
ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.70 52.70 points Apr 2026
Business Inventories MoM 0.40 0.00 percent Feb 2026
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.20 0.03 points Mar 2026
Consumer Spending 16731.20 16665.20 USD Billion Mar 2026
Housing Starts 1502.00 1356.00 Thousand units Mar 2026
Industrial Production YoY 0.70 1.20 percent Mar 2026
Manufacturing Production YoY 0.50 1.10 percent Mar 2026
New Orders 630448.00 619304.00 USD Million Mar 2026
Non Farm Payrolls 115.00 185.00 Thousand Apr 2026
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 123.00 190.00 Thousand Apr 2026
Personal Spending MoM 0.90 0.60 percent Mar 2026
Retail Sales MoM 1.70 0.70 percent Mar 2026
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.30 percent Apr 2026


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.20 0.03 6.31 -18.28 1967 - 2026 points Monthly
NSA

News Stream
US Economic Activity Weakens in March
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped to -0.20 in March 2026, its lowest level since November 2025, down from a revised +0.03 in February. Three of the four key categories declined, with production-related indicators contributing -0.20 (down from +0.13 in February), sales, orders, and inventories subtracting -0.01 (from +0.05), and personal consumption and housing also at -0.01 (from neutral). Only employment-related indicators improved, adding +0.02 compared to -0.15 in February.
2026-04-23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls in February
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.11 in February 2026 from an upwardly revised +0.20 in January, suggesting economic growth decreased in the month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.01, down from +0.21 in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.01, unchanged from January. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.10, down from +0.02 in January. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution was +0.01, up from -0.02.
2026-03-23
Chicago Fed Activity Index Turns Positive in January
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.18 in January 2026 from -0.21 in December, marking its highest level since February 2025 and signaling a pickup in US economic activity at the start of the year. Production-related indicators drove the improvement, contributing +0.19 compared with -0.03 previously, while employment indicators edged up to +0.01 from -0.11. The sales, orders, and inventories category remained slightly negative at -0.02, though improved from -0.04, and personal consumption and housing made a neutral contribution after subtracting -0.04 in December.
2026-02-23