The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.29 in February 2019, the lowest since last May, from an upwardly revised -0.25 in the previous month and below market expectations of -0.25. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.10 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.07 in January; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category edged down to -0.06 from -0.03. In addition, the contribution from production-related indicators moved up to -0.16 in February from -0.29 in January; and the sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.03, up slightly from +0.01 in the previous month. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.78 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.25 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.15 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.