The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.17 in September of 2018 from an upwardly revised 0.27 in August. The contribution from production-related indicators decreased to +0.11 in September from +0.16 in August; and the sales, orders, and inventories category went down to +0.05 from +0.10. On the other hand, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category edged up to –0.05 in September from –0.06 in August and the employment-related indicators contributed +0.07, up slightly from +0.06 in the previous month. The index’s three-month moving average declined to +0.21 in September from +0.27 in August. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.77 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.22 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.90 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.23 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.05 in 2020, according to our econometric models.