The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.36 in July 2019, the lowest since April, from a revised 0.03 in the previous month. Production-related indicators contributed –0.25 to the CFNAI, down from +0.09 in June, and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category decreased to –0.05 from –0.01. Also, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked down to –0.06 from –0.05 in June; and employment-related indicators contributed –0.01, down slightly from a neutral value in June. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.79 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.28 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.