The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.29 in February 2019, the lowest since last May, from an upwardly revised -0.25 in the previous month and below market expectations of -0.25. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.10 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.07 in January; and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category edged down to -0.06 from -0.03. In addition, the contribution from production-related indicators moved up to -0.16 in February from -0.29 in January; and the sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.03, up slightly from +0.01 in the previous month. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.78 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.25 in December of 1974.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.15 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-24 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.22 0.00 0.91
2019-01-28 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.27 0.21 0.15
2019-02-25 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.43 0.05 0.11
2019-03-25 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.29 -0.25 -0.25 0.3
2019-04-22 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.29 2.55 -0.15
2019-05-20 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.3
2019-06-24 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.1


United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 55.30 54.20 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 52.40 52.40 57.90 50.70 [+]
Services PMI 52.90 55.30 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.10 59.70 62.00 37.80 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.80 54.60 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 2.80 3.50 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -0.10 0.10 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.00 1.10 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.80 79.00 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -1.60 0.10 23.50 -19.00 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.90 0.40 26.00 -19.70 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.10 -0.10 7.50 -6.80 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 -0.10 4.60 -7.20 percent [+]
New Orders 497474.00 500479.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -0.50 0.00 10.60 -10.00 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.30 0.90 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 96.80 89.77 166.37 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.20 1.20 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22232.00 22103.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 2076.20 2076.82 2076.82 14.70 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 101.80 101.70 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 66.90 61.10 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 8.50 13.70 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 10.10 3.70 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 10.00 16.00 29.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.29 -0.25 2.78 -5.25 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 8.30 13.10 47.10 -60.10 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 58.70 64.70 78.60 21.20 Index Points [+]
Car Production 2.46 2.64 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 389.93 445.50 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.45 16.57 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -1.40 7.03 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 92.00 25.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change -1174.00 -7710.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 125.56 125.17 125.56 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change -3.10 4.09 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 825.00 833.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 6896.00 7647.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 10.50 12.70 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.29 -0.25 2.78 -5.25 1967 - 2019 Monthly




Country Last Previous
United States -0.29 Feb/19


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