The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.24 in April of 2021 from an 8-month high of 1.71 in March, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth. Production-related indicators contributed +0.18, down from +0.92 in March. The contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category decreased to +0.05 from +0.38. Also, the personal consumption and housing category contributed –0.06, down from +0.50 in March. In contrast, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories moved up to +0.07 from -0.09. The index’s three-month moving average decreased to +0.07 in April from +0.35 in March. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 5.99 in June of 2020 and a record low of -17.66 in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2021.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 1.20 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.20 in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.24 1.71 5.99 -17.66 1967 - 2021 Monthly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2021-02-22 01:30 PM Jan 0.66 0.41 0.39
2021-03-22 12:30 PM Feb -1.09 0.75 0.78
2021-04-22 12:30 PM Mar 1.71 -1.2 0.97
2021-05-24 12:30 PM Apr 0.24 1.71 2.5
2021-06-21 12:30 PM May 0.24
2021-07-22 12:30 PM Jun
2021-08-23 12:30 PM Jul
2021-09-23 12:30 PM Aug


News Stream
Chicago Fed Index Points to Slow Down in Growth
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to 0.24 in April of 2021 from an 8-month high of 1.71 in March, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth. Production-related indicators contributed +0.18, down from +0.92 in March. The contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category decreased to +0.05 from +0.38. Also, the personal consumption and housing category contributed –0.06, down from +0.50 in March. In contrast, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories moved up to +0.07 from -0.09. The index’s three-month moving average decreased to +0.07 in April from +0.35 in March.
2021-05-24
Chicago Fed Activity Index Rebounds to 8-Month High
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index jumped to 1.71 in March of 2021, the highest in 8 months, from a downwardly revised -1.2 in February. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in March, and all four categories improved from February: production related indicators (0.63 vs -1.04); sales, orders and inventories (0.11 vs -0.06); personal consumption and housing (0.63 vs -0.21); employment, unemployment, and hours (0.34 vs 0.12). Also, the index’s three-month moving average increased to 0.54 from 0.07.
2021-04-22
Chicago Fed Activity Index Plunges to 10-Month Low
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index sank to -1.09 in February of 2021 from an upwardly revised 0.75 in January. It is the lowest reading since April as indicators related to production declined sharply (-0.85 vs 0.37) as adverse weather weighed on activity. Also, there was a negative contribution from personal consumption and housing indicators (-0.29 vs 0.27). Meanwhile, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories fell to 0.03 from 0.06 while the contribution of the employment, unemployment, and hours category was down to 0.02 from 0.04. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to -0.02 in February from 0.46 in January.
2021-03-22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 3-Month High
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US increased to 0.66 in January of 2021 from a downwardly revised 0.41 in December. The reading pointed to the strongest activity growth in 3 months, led by improvements in personal consumption-related indicators (+0.35 from -0.06). Meanwhile, production-related indicators contributed +0.28, down from +0.37 in December. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category edged down to +0.02 from +0.05 and employment-related indicators contributed +0.01, down slightly from +0.05 in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.47 in January from +0.60 in December.
2021-02-22

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.