The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.36 in July 2019, the lowest since April, from a revised 0.03 in the previous month. Production-related indicators contributed –0.25 to the CFNAI, down from +0.09 in June, and the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category decreased to –0.05 from –0.01. Also, the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category ticked down to –0.06 from –0.05 in June; and employment-related indicators contributed –0.01, down slightly from a neutral value in June. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.79 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.28 in December of 1974.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be -0.30 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at -0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around -0.50 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-05-20 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Apr -0.45 0.05 -0.33 -0.1
2019-06-24 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index May -0.05 -0.48 0.10 0
2019-07-22 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Jun -0.02 -0.03 0.10 -0.7
2019-08-26 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Jul -0.36 0.03 0.11
2019-09-23 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Aug -0.36 -0.35 -0.06
2019-10-28 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Sep 0.21
2019-11-25 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index Oct -0.5


United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 49.10 51.20 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.30 50.40 57.90 50.30 [+]
Services PMI 50.70 53.00 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 56.40 53.70 62.00 37.80 [+]
Composite Pmi 50.70 52.60 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 0.40 0.50 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.60 -0.10 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.40 -0.50 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.88 77.52 89.39 66.69 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders 2.10 1.80 23.20 -18.40 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense 1.40 3.10 25.50 -19.20 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation -0.40 0.80 6.30 -10.20 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 -0.10 4.60 -7.00 percent [+]
New Orders 500278.00 493817.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders 1.40 0.50 10.40 -9.70 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.40 0.00 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 69.03 116.00 173.21 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.20 -0.10 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22483.00 22157.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 1882.97 1791.42 1882.97 14.67 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 103.10 104.70 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 2.00 4.80 39.00 -34.40 Index Points [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 12.00 16.80 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 1.00 -12.00 27.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 50.30 43.50 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.36 0.03 2.79 -5.28 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 2.70 -6.30 47.60 -59.90 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 50.40 44.40 78.60 21.20 Index Points [+]
Car Production 2.55 2.67 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 428.44 417.60 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 16.90 16.80 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change 1.06 -6.91 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change 84.00 78.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 781.00 -682.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 128.31 128.29 128.31 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 0.59 -7.20 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 719.00 733.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 71.00 75.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 22.00 16.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7514.00 7276.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index -2.00 -6.00 37.00 -32.00 Index Points [+]
Mining Production 5.10 5.90 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.36 0.03 2.79 -5.28 1967 - 2019 Monthly




Country Last Previous
United States -0.36 Jul/19


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