The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in the US rose to -0.04 in November 2025 from -0.42 in October which was the lowest in ten months, signalling that economic growth increased on the month. Production-related indicators contributed +0.08, up from -0.26 in October. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.03 in November, unchanged from October. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.07, up from -0.11 in October and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.02, up from -0.03 in October. Meanwhile, the CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to -0.24 in November from -0.43 in October. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to -0.04 points in November from -0.42 points in October of 2025. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0.00 points from 1967 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 6.30 points in June of 2020 and a record low of -18.24 points in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on February of 2026.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to -0.04 points in November from -0.42 points in October of 2025. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.20 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.40 points in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2026-01-26 01:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Oct -0.42 -0.24 -0.2
2026-01-26 01:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Nov -0.04 -0.42 -0.4
2026-02-23 01:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Dec -0.5

Components Last Previous Unit Reference
CFNAI Employment Index -0.07 -0.11 points Nov 2025
CFNAI Personal Consumption and Housing Index -0.02 -0.03 points Nov 2025
CFNAI Production Index 0.08 -0.26 points Nov 2025
CFNAI Sales Orders and Inventories Index -0.03 -0.03 points Nov 2025

Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Building Permits 1411.00 1415.00 Thousand Oct 2025
ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.60 47.90 points Jan 2026
Business Inventories MoM 0.10 0.20 percent Nov 2025
Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.04 -0.42 points Nov 2025
Consumer Spending 16585.90 16445.70 USD Billion Sep 2025
Housing Starts 1246.00 1306.00 Thousand units Oct 2025
Industrial Production YoY 2.00 2.70 percent Dec 2025
Manufacturing Production YoY 2.00 2.20 percent Dec 2025
New Orders 621621.00 605401.00 USD Million Nov 2025
Non Farm Payrolls 130.00 48.00 Thousand Jan 2026
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 172.00 64.00 Thousand Jan 2026
Personal Spending MoM 0.50 0.50 percent Nov 2025
Retail Sales MoM 0.00 0.60 percent Dec 2025
Unemployment Rate 4.30 4.40 percent Jan 2026


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.04 -0.42 6.30 -18.24 1967 - 2025 points Monthly
NSA

News Stream
CFNAI Increases in November
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) in the US rose to -0.04 in November 2025 from -0.42 in October which was the lowest in ten months, signalling that economic growth increased on the month. Production-related indicators contributed +0.08, up from -0.26 in October. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.03 in November, unchanged from October. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.07, up from -0.11 in October and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.02, up from -0.03 in October. Meanwhile, the CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to -0.24 in November from -0.43 in October.
2026-01-26
CFNAI Slightly Up in September
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to -0.21 in September 2025 from -0.31 in August, according to delayed data, signaling a milder contraction in economic activity. Despite the improvement, the index remained in negative territory for a sixth consecutive month. Production-related indicators contributed -0.10 to the index, improving from -0.13 in August. The sales, orders, and inventories component weakened slightly, contributing -0.07 compared with -0.05 previously, while the personal consumption and housing category also deteriorated to -0.06 from -0.03. In contrast, employment-related indicators turned positive, contributing +0.01 in September after -0.11 in August, providing a modest offset to broader economic softness.
2025-12-22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 5-Month High
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for the US came in at -0.12 in August 2025, the highest in five months, compared to a downwardly revised -0.28 in August. The Index suggested that economic growth increased in August. Production-related indicators contributed -0.02, up from -0.17 in July. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution, up from -0.02. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.07, up from -0.10. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.03, down from +0.02 in July. Meanwhile, the index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to -0.18 in August from -0.20 in July.
2025-09-22