The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.27 in December 2018 from a downwardly revised +0.21 in the previous month. It is the highest reading since August, as the contribution from production-related indicators increased to +0.22 from +0.02 and employment-related indicators contributed +0.11, up slightly from +0.10. On the other hand, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution, down from +0.12 in November and the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category edged down to -0.06 from -0.03. The index’s three-month moving average, edged up to +0.16 in December from +0.12 in November. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.77 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.22 in December of 1974.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.70 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.38 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.05 in 2020, according to our econometric models.