The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.24 in October 2018 from a downwardly revised +0.14 in the previous month. Employment-related indicators contributed +0.19 to the CFNAI in October (vs +0.05 in September) as total non-farm payrolls rose by 250,000 after increasing by 118,000 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the contribution from the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI was unchanged at +0.04, and that from production-related indicators moved down to +0.06 from +0.09. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to -0.05 in October from -0.04 in September. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0 from 1967 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.77 in September of 1983 and a record low of -5.22 in December of 1974.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.90 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States to stand at 0.21 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.05 in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-08-27 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.13 0.48 0.13 0.39
2018-09-24 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.18 0.18 0.02 0.2
2018-10-22 12:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.17 0.27 0.15
2018-11-26 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.24 0.14 0.42
2018-12-21 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.24 0.91
2019-01-22 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.90
2019-02-26 01:30 PM Chicago Fed National Activity Index


United States Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 59.30 57.70 77.50 29.40 Index Points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 55.30 55.70 57.90 50.70 [+]
Services PMI 54.70 54.80 61.00 49.30 Index Points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 60.70 60.30 62.00 37.60 [+]
Composite Pmi 54.70 54.90 61.00 50.00 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production 4.10 5.60 62.00 -33.70 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.10 0.20 16.60 -10.40 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 2.70 3.80 67.90 -39.40 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 78.40 78.50 89.39 66.71 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders -4.40 -0.10 23.50 -19.00 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense -1.20 -1.40 26.00 -19.70 percent [+]
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation 0.10 -0.60 7.50 -6.80 percent [+]
Factory Orders Ex Transportation 0.30 0.10 4.60 -7.20 percent [+]
New Orders 502677.00 515334.00 565232.00 223500.00 USD Million [+]
Factory Orders -2.10 0.20 10.60 -10.00 percent [+]
Business Inventories 0.30 0.50 1.30 -2.00 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 86.65 -36.81 166.37 -245.13 USD Billion [+]
Wholesale Inventories 0.80 0.70 2.10 -2.00 percent [+]
Bankruptcies 22103.00 22245.00 82446.00 19695.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 2073.50 2007.53 2073.50 14.70 USD Billion [+]
NFIB Business Optimism Index 107.40 107.90 108.80 80.10 Index Points [+]
Ism New York Index 67.80 69.80 88.80 23.40 percent [+]
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 12.90 22.20 58.50 -57.90 Index Points [+]
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 23.30 21.10 39.00 -35.10 Index Points [+]
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 14.00 15.00 29.00 -44.00 Index Points [+]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.24 0.14 2.77 -5.22 [+]
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index 17.60 29.40 47.10 -60.10 Index Points [+]
Chicago Pmi 66.40 58.40 81.00 20.70 Index Points [+]
Car Production 2.64 2.78 9.92 1.29 Million Units [+]
Car Registrations 436.69 443.14 1149.00 331.50 Thousand [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 17.49 17.57 21.77 9.05 Million [+]
Crude Oil Stocks Change -7.32 3.58 14.42 -15.22 BBL/1Million [+]
Natural Gas Stocks Change -63.00 -59.00 147.00 -359.00 Billion cf [+]
Gasoline Stocks Change 1699.00 -764.00 11456.00 -8428.00 Thousand Barrels [+]
Leading Economic Index 124.54 124.26 124.54 46.91 Index Points [+]
Internet Speed 18747.58 17235.62 18747.58 3609.31 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 128949703.00 127873899.00 146874246.00 89399946.00 IP [+]
API Crude Oil Stock Change 5.36 3.45 14.30 -12.40 BBL/1Million [+]
Crude Oil Rigs 877.00 887.00 1609.00 98.00 [+]
Corruption Index 75.00 74.00 78.00 71.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 16.00 18.00 24.00 14.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 85.64 84.84 85.64 5.42 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 1.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 8.00 6.00 8.00 4.00 [+]
Steel Production 7571.00 7251.00 11951.00 3799.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 13.10 15.10 108.20 -28.80 percent [+]


United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.24 0.14 2.77 -5.22 1967 - 2018 Monthly




Country Last Previous
United States 0.24 Oct/18


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