Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations in the US eased to 2.5% in December 2025. Earnings Growth Expectations in the United States averaged 2.49 percent from 2013 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 3.00 percent in October of 2021 and a record low of 1.60 percent in June of 2020. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Related	Last	Previous	Unit	Reference
Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30	0.20	percent	Dec 2025
Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.80	3.60	percent	Dec 2025
Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.40	3.20	percent	Dec 2025
3-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.00	3.00	percent	Dec 2025
5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.00	3.00	percent	Dec 2025
Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations	41.80	42.10	percent	Dec 2025
Unemployment Rate	4.40	4.50	percent	Dec 2025
Wage Growth	3.76	3.92	percent	Nov 2025

United States Earnings Growth Expectations

The median one-year ahead earnings growth expectations represent the middle value of households’ anticipated wage or salary growth over the next 12 months, as reported in the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The survey draws on a nationally representative, internet-based panel of roughly 1,300 household heads.