Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations in the US decreased by 2.8% in July 2026, remaining at the same level as the previous month. Earnings Growth Expectations in the United States averaged 2.50 percent from 2013 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 3.00 percent in October of 2021 and a record low of 1.60 percent in June of 2020. source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Related	Last	Previous	Unit	Reference
Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.10	0.30	percent	Jul 2026
Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.20	3.40	percent	Jul 2026
Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.60	3.70	percent	Jul 2026
3-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.30	3.30	percent	Jul 2026
5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.00	3.00	percent	Jul 2026
Mean Unemployment Rate Expectations	42.80	41.70	percent	Jul 2026
Unemployment Rate	4.10	4.20	percent	Jul 2026
Wage Growth	4.25	3.99	percent	Jun 2026

United States Earnings Growth Expectations

The median one-year ahead earnings growth expectations represent the middle value of households’ anticipated wage or salary growth over the next 12 months, as reported in the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The survey draws on a nationally representative, internet-based panel of roughly 1,300 household heads.