The 10 year Brazilian government bond yield climbed toward 14.1% as investors re-priced both growth and fiscal risk. Q2 GDP slowed to 2.2% year on year, the softest expansion in more than three years, while gross fixed capital formation fell about 2.2%, signaling that investment has cooled under a prolonged 15% Selic that is tightening credit and business activity. Sticky inflation and a still resilient labor market complicate the timing of any rate cuts, keeping monetary policy on a restrictive path. At the same time public debt is moving toward roughly 79% of GDP for 2025 and a large share of federal debt is tied to floating rates, which makes the debt stock unusually rate sensitive and raises term premia when fiscal or market uncertainty flares.
The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield rose to 14.06% on September 4, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.13 points and is 2.12 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Historically, the Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield reached an all time high of 1401 in December of 2022. Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on September 5 of 2025.
The yield on Brazil 10Y Bond Yield rose to 14.06% on September 4, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.13 points and is 2.12 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. The Brazil 10-Year Government Bond Yield is expected to trade at 13.86 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 13.67 in 12 months time.