U.S. GDP Growth Revised to 3.1 Percent in Q3


U.S. Real gross domestic products increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by a negative contribution from nonresidential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending, a downturn in imports, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment and a deceleration in exports.
 
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the second. Durable goods increased 8.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.  Services increased 0.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.
 
Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 3.6 percent. Nonresidential structures was unchanged in the third quarter; in the second quarter, structures increased 0.6 percent. Equipment and software decreased 2.6 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of 4.8 percent in the second. Real residential fixed investment increased 13.5 percent, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent.
 
Real exports of goods and services increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 5.3 percent in the second.  Real imports of goods and services decreased 0.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 2.8 percent.
 
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.5 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second.  National defense increased 12.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondefense increased 3.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 0.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0 percent.
 
The change in real private inventories added 0.73 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 0.46 percentage point from the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $60.3 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $41.4 billion in the second and $56.9 billion in the first.
 
 
 
 

 


the Bureau of Economic Analysis | Andre Crujo | andre@tradingeconomics.com
12/20/2012 1:36:20 PM