News

US Inflation Poised to Surge as Iran War Fuels Energy Prices
The annual inflation rate in the US likely jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, marking the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp increase from 2.4% in February. The rise was primarily driven by higher energy costs linked to the war with Iran, alongside the continued pass-through of tariffs into consumer prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are estimated to have risen 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022, following a 0.3% gain in February. The jump comes as the US national average price of gasoline climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years. Meanwhile, core inflation which excludes food and energy, is also expected to have picked up, though more moderately, to 2.7% year over year, the highest in five months, up from 2.5% in both January and February. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices likely increased by 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in February.
Published on 2026-04-10

US Inflation Rate Matches Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US held steady at 2.4% in February 2026, unchanged from January, in line with expectations and remaining at its lowest level since May 2025. Energy prices were up 0.5% while food increased 3.1%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.3%, slightly accelerating from 0.2% in January and in line with forecasts. Shelter prices were up 0.2% and made the largest contribution. Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained unchanged at 2.5%, the same as in January and near its lowest level since 2021. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased by 0.2%, less than 0.3% in the previous month.
Published on 2026-03-11

US Inflation Rate Matches Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US held steady at 2.4% in February 2026, unchanged from January, in line with expectations and remaining at its lowest level since May 2025. Energy prices rebounded (0.5% vs -0.1%), led by a smaller decline in gasoline (-5.6% vs -7.5%) and a rise in fuel oil (6.2% vs -4.2%) and natural gas (10.9% vs 9.8%). On the other hand, prices for used cars and trucks declined more (-3.2% vs -2%) while inflation steadied for food (3.1% vs 3.1%) and shelter (3% vs 3%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.3%, slightly accelerating from 0.2% in January and in line with forecasts. Shelter prices were up 0.2% and made the largest contribution. Gasoline went up 0.8% and food rose 0.4%. Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained unchanged at 2.5%, the same as in January and near its lowest level since 2021. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased by 0.2%, less than 0.3% in the previous month. Core figures also matched expectations.
Published on 2026-03-11

US Inflation Rate Seen Stable in February
The annual inflation rate in the US likely held steady at 2.4% in February 2026, unchanged from January and remaining at its lowest level since May 2025. On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, slightly accelerating from 0.2% in January. Gasoline prices probably picked up while prices for services, food, and housing are expected to have slowed, and used vehicle prices likely remained lower. Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to have remained unchanged at 2.5%, the same as in January and near its lowest level since 2021. On a monthly basis, core CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2%, less than 0.3% in the previous month. Overall, the February CPI report is expected to continue pointing to inflation slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target, while also suggesting a degree of stabilisation, partly reflecting base effects as stronger readings from a year earlier drop out of the annual calculation.
Published on 2026-03-11

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, marking its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. The deceleration largely reflects base effects, as higher readings from a year ago drop out of the annual calculation. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, below 0.3% in December and forecasts of 0.3%. The index for shelter rose 0.2% and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. Meanwhile, annual core inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021, compared with 2.6% in the prior month and in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased by 0.3%, slightly above December’s 0.2% rise.
Published on 2026-02-13

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. The deceleration largely reflects base effects, as higher readings from a year ago drop out of the annual calculation. Price pressures eased notably in the energy sector, with prices falling 0.1%, after a 2.3% rise in December, led by gasoline (-7.5% vs -3.4%) and fuel oil (-4.2% vs 7.4%). Prices of natural also rose at a slightly slower pace (9.8% vs 10.8%). A decline was also seen in prices for used cars and trucks (-2% vs 1.6%) while inflation slowed for food (3.1% vs 2.9%) and shelter (3% vs 3.2%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, below 0.3% in December and forecasts of 0.3%. Annual core inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021, compared with 2.6% in the prior month and in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased by 0.3%, slightly above 0.2% in December.
Published on 2026-02-13

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, marking its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. The deceleration largely reflects base effects, as higher readings from a year ago drop out of the annual calculation. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, below 0.3% in December and forecasts of 0.3%. The index for shelter rose 0.2% and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase.
Published on 2026-02-13

US Inflation Rate Seen Little Changed in January
The annual inflation rate in the US likely slowed to 2.5% in January 2026, marking its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months. The deceleration largely reflects base effects, as higher readings from a year ago drop out of the annual calculation. On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, matching December’s increase. Food and electricity prices are expected to have moved higher, while gasoline prices likely declined. There are also indications that core goods prices may have firmed, as companies potentially used the start of the new calendar year to implement tariff-related price adjustments. Meanwhile, annual core inflation is projected to ease to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021, compared with 2.6% in the prior month. On a monthly basis, core CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3%, slightly above December’s 0.2% rise.
Published on 2026-02-13

US Inflation Rate Seen Little Changed in January
The annual inflation rate in the US likely slowed to 2.5% in January 2026, marking its lowest level in seven months, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months. The deceleration largely reflects base effects, as higher readings from a year ago drop out of the annual calculation. On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, matching December’s increase. Food and electricity prices are expected to have moved higher, while gasoline prices likely declined. There are also indications that core goods prices may have firmed, as companies potentially used the start of the new calendar year to implement tariff-related price adjustments. Meanwhile, annual core inflation is projected to ease to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021, compared with 2.6% in the prior month. On a monthly basis, core CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3%, slightly above December’s 0.2% rise.
Published on 2026-02-13

US Inflation Rate Stable at 2.7%, Core Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US remained at 2.7% in December 2025, the same as in November and in line with market expectations. Price pressures eased notably in the energy sector, with prices rising at a much slower pace (2.3% vs. 4.2%), driven by a decline in gasoline prices (-3.4% vs. +0.9%) and a moderation in fuel oil inflation (7.4% vs. 11.3%), while natural gas prices rose more sharply (10.8% vs. 9.1%). Prices also increased at a slower rate for used cars and trucks (1.6% vs. 3.6%). By contrast, price gains accelerated for food (3.1% vs. 2.6%) and shelter (3.2% vs. 3.0%). Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.6%, the lowest level since 2021, below expectations for a rise to 2.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up 0.3%, in line with forecasts, with shelter costs rising 0.4% and accounting for the largest contribution to the overall increase. The core rate came in at 0.2%, below forecasts of 0.3%.
Published on 2026-01-13

US Inflation Rate Stable at 2.7%, Core Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US remained at 2.7% in December 2025, the same as in November and in line with market expectations. The energy index increased 2.3% and the food index went up 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core annual rate also remained at 2.6%, the lowest since 2021, compared to forecasts it would rise to 2.7%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.3% as anticipated, with shelter costs rising 0.4% and being the largest factor in the all items monthly increase.
Published on 2026-01-13

US Inflation Rate Likely Steady, Core Seen Rising
The annual inflation rate in the US likely remained at 2.7% in December 2025, while the core rate probably edged up to 2.7% from 2.6% in November which was the lowest level since early 2021. On a month-over-month basis, headline CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3%, with core CPI also seen rising by 0.3%, driven mainly by higher goods prices. Month-over-month figures for November were not published by the BLS, as the agency was unable to collect data during the government shutdown. The December report may point to a reversal of the downward inflationary pressures observed in November; however, concerns over data quality remain as distortions linked to the shutdown may still be affecting the figures.
Published on 2026-01-13

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2% and food prices rose 2.6%. The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 as a result of the 43-day shutdown. As a result, figures for October were missing.
Published on 2025-12-18

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2%, with gasoline rising 0.9%, fuel oil soaring 11.3% and natural gas gaining 9.1%. Also, food prices rose 2.6%, shelter cost was up 3% and other notable increases were recorded for medical care (2.9%), household furnishings and operations (4.6%), recreation (1.8%), and used cars and trucks (3.6%). The lowest price increases were recorded for apparel (0.2%) and new vehicles (0.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation came in at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, compared to forecasts of 3%.The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 as a result of the 43-day government shutdown. As a result, October figures were missing, and November monthly data were not released.
Published on 2025-12-18

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2%, with gasoline rising 0.9%, fuel oil soaring 11.3% and natural gas gaining 9.1%. Also, food prices rose 2.6%, shelter cost was up 3% and other notable increases were recorded for medical care (2.9%), household furnishings and operations (4.6%), recreation (1.8%), and used cars and trucks (3.6%). The lowest price increases were recorded for apparel (0.2%) and new vehicles (0.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation came in at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, compared to forecasts of 3%. The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 due to the 43-day government shutdown. As a result, October figures were missing, and November monthly data were not released. However, the BLS said that the CPI increased 0.2% over the 2 months from September to November 2025.
Published on 2025-12-18

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2% and food prices rose 2.6%.
Published on 2025-12-18

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2%, food prices rose 2.6% and shelter cost was up 3%. Other notable increases were recorded for medical care (2.9%), household furnishings and operations (4.6%), recreation (1.8%), and used cars and trucks (3.6%). The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 as a result of the 43-day government shutdown. As a result, figures for October were missing and the monthly rates for November were not released. Meanwhile, annual core inflation came in at 2.6%, much lower than forecasts of 3%.
Published on 2025-12-18

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2%, with gasoline rising 0.9%, fuel oil soaring 11.3% and natural gas gaining 9.1%. Also, food prices rose 2.6%, shelter cost was up 3% and other notable increases were recorded for medical care (2.9%), household furnishings and operations (4.6%), recreation (1.8%), and used cars and trucks (3.6%). The lowest price increases were recorded for apparel (0.2%) and new vehicles (0.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation came in at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, compared to forecasts of 3%. The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 as a result of the 43-day government shutdown. As a result, October figures were missing, and November monthly data were not released.
Published on 2025-12-18

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2% and food prices rose 2.6%. The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 as a result of the 43-day shutdown. As a result, figures for October were missing and the monthly rates for November were not released either. Meanwhile, annual core inflation came in at 2.6%, much lower than forecasts of 3%.
Published on 2025-12-18

US Inflation Rate Below Forecasts
The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2%, with gasoline rising 0.9%, fuel oil soaring 11.3% and natural gas gaining 9.1%. Also, food prices rose 2.6%, shelter cost was up 3% and other notable increases were recorded for medical care (2.9%), household furnishings and operations (4.6%), recreation (1.8%), and used cars and trucks (3.6%). The lowest price increases were recorded for apparel (0.2%) and new vehicles (0.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation came in at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, compared to forecasts of 3%.The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 as a result of the 43-day government shutdown. As a result, October figures were missing, and November monthly data were not released.
Published on 2025-12-18