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Fed Policymakers Split Over Next Moves on Rates
Fed officials are divided over the future path of interest rates, reflecting a tension between the need to contain inflation and the desire to support the labor market, according to the minutes of the January 2026 FOMC meeting. Several participants indicated that further reductions in the fed funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation continues to decline in line with their expectations. Others argued that it may be prudent to hold the policy rate steady for some time and some even raised the possibility that rate increases could become necessary if inflation remains persistently above target. In addition, a vast majority of participants judged that downside risks to employment had moderated in recent months while the risk of more persistent inflation remained. The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting, in line with expectations, after three consecutive rate cuts last year.
Published on 2026-02-18

Tight Monetary Policy Risks Growth: Fed Miran
The current policy stance risks slowing U.S. growth, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said in a speech. He argued rates may be tighter than necessary despite supportive measures from the Trump administration, including tax cuts. Speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Miran warned that “the biggest risk… is that we’re misconstruing just how tight monetary policy is,” and reiterated his call for further rate cuts. Miran said he does not see a significant inflation threat, noting that very low shelter inflation could offset price pressures elsewhere. “I have a hard time being concerned about inflation,” he said. As long as inflation remains contained, he believes the Fed should continue supporting the labor market with looser policy, especially as supply growth outpaces demand, allowing the economy to expand without reigniting price pressures.
Published on 2026-02-13

Tight Policy Risks Growth: Fed Miran
The current policy stance risks slowing U.S. growth, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said in a speech. He argued rates may be tighter than necessary despite supportive measures from the Trump administration, including tax cuts. Speaking at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Miran warned that “the biggest risk… is that we’re misconstruing just how tight monetary policy is,” and reiterated his call for further rate cuts. Miran said he does not see a significant inflation threat, noting that very low shelter inflation could offset price pressures elsewhere. “I have a hard time being concerned about inflation,” he said. As long as inflation remains contained, he believes the Fed should continue supporting the labor market with looser policy, especially as supply growth outpaces demand, allowing the economy to expand without reigniting price pressures.
Published on 2026-02-13

Fed Pauses Rate Cuts
The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting, in line with expectations, after three consecutive rate cuts last year that pushed borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller however, voted against the hold, with both advocating another 25bps cut. Policymakers noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. The central bank also reinforced that it will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering the next adjustments to the fed funds rate. During the regular press conference, Chair Powell said the US economy is coming into 2026 on a firm footing and that interest rates right now are appropriate to promote progress toward both of the Fed’s goals.
Published on 2026-01-28

Fed Pauses Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting, in line with expectations. The central bank paused its easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts last year that pushed borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Policymakers noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, but inflation remains somewhat elevated.
Published on 2026-01-28

Fed Pauses Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting, in line with expectations, after three consecutive rate cuts last year that pushed borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller however, voted against the hold, with both advocating another quarter-point cut. Policymakers noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace, job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization, while inflation remains somewhat elevated. The central bank also noted that uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated and reinforced that it will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate.
Published on 2026-01-28

Fed Set to Pause Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the 3.5%–3.75% target range in its January 2026 meeting, pausing its easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts last year that pushed borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Investors will be watching closely for guidance on the timing of the next rate cut, although policymakers may signal an extended pause. Job growth has slowed sharply, the unemployment rate has stabilized, and inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. In its December projections, the Fed signaled just one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026. Markets currently expect that cut to come in June, while pricing in a smaller probability of an additional move in December. Meanwhile, Chair Powell’s first press conference since the Fed received grand jury subpoenas is likely to feature questions about political pressure and central bank independence.
Published on 2026-01-28

Fed Likely to Reduce Rates Next Year: FOMC Minutes
Minutes from the Fed's December meeting noted that most of the FOMC judged that rate cuts are likely to be appropriate next year if inflation eases over time. Still, policymakers were divided in their assessment of risks between higher inflation and unemployment, with a part of the FOMC displaying greater concern that inflation becoming entrenched may require higher borrowing costs, while others preferred a greater magnitude of rate cuts to curb signs of a softening labor market. The December meeting saw a reduction in the federal funds rate by 25bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, matching the consensus by markets, for a third cut in the year. The decision featured two dissents, with two members opting for a hold while new FOMC Governor Miran opted for a 50bps cut. Additionally, the SEP featured in the meeting indicated that policymakers were more optimistic about growth next year, reflecting a smaller-than-expected initial impact from tariffs.
Published on 2025-12-30

FOMC Likely to Reduce Rates Next Year: FOMC
Minutes from the Fed's December meeting noted that most of the FOMC judged that rate cuts are likely to be appropriate next year if inflation eases over time. Still, policymakers were divided in their assessment of risks between higher inflation and unemployment, with a part of the FOMC displaying greater concern that inflation becoming entrenched may require higher borrowing costs, while others preferred a greater magnitude of rate cuts to curb signs of a softening labor market. The December meeting saw a reduction in the federal funds rate by 25bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, matching the consensus by markets, for a third cut in the year. The decision featured two dissents, with two members opting for a hold while new FOMC Governor Miran opted for a 50bps cut. Additionally, the SEP featured in the meeting indicated that policymakers were more optimistic about growth next year, reflecting a smaller-than-expected initial impact from tariffs.
Published on 2025-12-30

FOMC Likely to Reduce Rates Next Year: Minutes
Minutes from the Fed's December meeting noted that most of the FOMC judged that rate cuts are likely to be appropriate next year if inflation eases over time. Still, policymakers were divided in their assessment of risks between higher inflation and unemployment, with a part of the FOMC displaying greater concern that inflation becoming entrenched may require higher borrowing costs, while others preferred a greater magnitude of rate cuts to curb signs of a softening labor market. The December meeting saw a reduction in the federal funds rate by 25bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, matching the consensus by markets, for a third cut in the year. The decision featured two dissents, with two members opting for a hold while new FOMC Governor Miran opted for a 50bps cut. Additionally, the SEP featured in the meeting indicated that policymakers were more optimistic about growth next year, reflecting a smaller-than-expected initial impact from tariffs.
Published on 2025-12-30

Fed Lowers Rates for 3rd Time
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in its December 2025 meeting, following similar reductions in September and October, and in line with expectations. This brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. The committee remained divided, with three members continuing to vote against the cut, which hasn’t happened since September 2019. Stephen Miran pushed for a deeper 50bps reduction, in contrast to Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid, who argued for keeping rates on hold. Meanwhile, policymakers left their projections for the federal funds rate unchanged from September, signaling only one 25bps cut in 2026. On the GDP front, the Fed revised its growth forecasts higher for 2025 (1.7% vs 1.6%) and 2026 (2.3% vs 1.8%). PCE inflation is now expected to be slightly lower this year at 2.9% (vs 3.0%) and next year at 2.4% (vs 2.6%). Forecasts for the unemployment rate were left unchanged at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026.
Published on 2025-12-10

Fed Lowers Rates for 3rd Time
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in its December 2025 meeting, following similar reductions in September and October, and in line with market expectations. This brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022.
Published on 2025-12-10

Fed Lowers Rates for 3rd Time
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in its December 2025 meeting, following similar reductions in September and October, and in line with market expectations. This brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Meanwhile, policymakers left their projections for the federal funds rate unchanged from September, signaling only one 25bps cut in 2026.
Published on 2025-12-10

Fed Lowers Rates for 3rd Time
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in its December 2025 meeting, following similar reductions in September and October, and in line with market expectations. This brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Meanwhile, policymakers left their projections for the federal funds rate unchanged from September, signaling only one 25bps cut in 2026. Three members of the commitee continued to vote against the cut, which hasn’t happened since September 2019.
Published on 2025-12-10

Fed Lowers Rates for 3rd Time
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in its December 2025 meeting, following similar reductions in September and October, and in line with market expectations. This brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. The committee remained divided, with three members continuing to vote against the cut, which hasn’t happened since September 2019. Stephen Miran pushed for a deeper 50bps reduction, in contrast to Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid, who argued for keeping the federal funds rate target range unchanged. Meanwhile, policymakers left their projections for the federal funds rate unchanged from September, signaling only one 25bps cut in 2026.
Published on 2025-12-10

Fed Expected to Cut Rates for 3rd Time
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in December 2025, following similar reductions in September and October. This would bring borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. The decision comes amid clear signs of a rapidly cooling labour market, even as policymakers continue to operate without several key government data releases that remain delayed or suspended due to the shutdown. Markets will also focus on the updated dot plot and officials’ interest-rate projections for 2026, which are likely to highlight ongoing divisions over the need for further easing in the face of persistent inflation. In September, the Fed projected just one rate cut in 2026. Markets are pricing in roughly two additional quarter-point cuts next year, with the first not expected before June.
Published on 2025-12-10

Fed Expected to Cut Rates for 3rd Time
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.5%–3.75% in December 2025, following similar reductions in September and October. This would bring borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. The decision comes amid clear signs of a rapidly cooling labour market, even as policymakers continue to operate without several key government data releases that remain delayed or suspended due to the shutdown. Markets will also focus on the updated dot plot and officials’ interest-rate projections for 2026, which are likely to highlight ongoing divisions over the need for further easing in the face of persistent inflation. In September, the Fed projected just one rate cut in 2026. Traders currently expect roughly two additional quarter-point cuts next year, likely in June and September.
Published on 2025-12-10

Fed Split on Need for Rate Cuts: Minutes
Several Federal Reserve officials favored lowering the target range for the federal funds rate in October, though many could have supported leaving rates unchanged, and some opposed a reduction, minutes from the last FOMC meeting showed. When discussing the near-term path of monetary policy, participants expressed sharply divergent views on what decision would be most appropriate at the December meeting. Most believed further downward adjustments to the target range would likely be warranted, though several of them emphasized that another 25bps cut might not be appropriate in December. A number of participants judged that an additional rate cut in December could be suitable if the economy evolved broadly as expected over the intermeeting period. Many others suggested that, under their outlooks, keeping the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year would likely be appropriate. The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2025 meeting.
Published on 2025-11-19

Fed Split on Need for Rate Cuts: Minutes
Many Federal Reserve officials favored lowering the target range for the federal funds rate in October, though some could have supported leaving rates unchanged, and several opposed a reduction, minutes from the last FOMC meeting showed. When discussing the near-term path of monetary policy, participants expressed sharply divergent views on what decision would be most appropriate at the December meeting. Most believed further downward adjustments to the target range would likely be warranted, though several of them emphasized that another 25bps cut might not be appropriate in December. A number of participants judged that an additional rate cut in December could be suitable if the economy evolved broadly as expected over the intermeeting period. Many others suggested that, under their outlooks, keeping the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year would likely be appropriate. The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2025 meeting.
Published on 2025-11-19

Fed Lowers Rates by 25bps For 2nd Time
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations. The move followed a similar cut in September, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022. Policymakers cited increasing downside risks to employment in recent months while inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated. Governor Miran preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50bps and Kansas City Fed President Schmid dissented in favor of holding rates steady. The Fed said it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of its goals. In addition, the central bank decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1.
Published on 2025-10-29