The barometer for current economic conditions was higher at 112.5 from a preliminary of 109.6 and a final of 111.7 in May. On the other hand, the gauge of future expectations was revised down to 83.9 from a preliminary of 84.7. It was also lower than 87.7 in the previous month.
Americans expect the inflation rate to be 2.6 percent next year, matching earlier estimates and the May’s reading. The 5-year expectation was 2.5 percent, down from a preliminary 2.6 percent but above 2.4 percent in May.
The average level of the Sentiment Index during the first half of 2017 was 96.8, the best half-year average since the second half of 2000, and the partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans stood at 39 Index-points in June, nearly identical to the 38 point gap in February. The partisan divide still meant that June's Sentiment Index of 95.1 was nearly equal to both the average (95.7) between the optimism of Republicans and the pessimism of Democrats and the value for Independents (94.6). Surprisingly, the optimism among Republicans and Independents has largely resisted declines in the past several months despite the decreased likelihood that Trump's agenda will be passed in 2017. The most important policies to consumers are those that directly or indirectly affect their jobs, incomes, or their financial security. Fortunately, increasing uncertainty about future prospects for the economy has thus far been offset by the resurgent strength in the personal financial situation of consumers. The combination of continuing improvements in personal finances and increasing concerns about the economic outlook is typical around cyclical peaks. Nonetheless, the data provide no indication of an imminent downturn nor do the data provide any indication of a resurgent boom in spending. Even with a much improved 2nd quarter, personal consumption spending is expected to advance during 2017 by about 2.3%.