U.S. March Trade Deficit Narrowed


The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than forecast in March as imports dropped by the most in more than six years, reflecting the economic slowdown.

The gap shrank to $58.2 billion, the lowest this year, from a revised $61.7 billion in February, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The shortfall with China was the smallest in two years.

Americans bought fewer automobiles and less crude oil, furniture and communications equipment from overseas as the economy grew at the slowest pace since 2001. Exports fell for the first time in more than a year, indicating economies abroad may also be starting to cool.

Economists forecast the trade gap would narrow to $61 billion from a previously reported $62.3 billion, according to the median of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Forecasts ranged from $59 billion to $64.9 billion.

After eliminating the influence of prices, which are the numbers used to calculate gross domestic product, the trade deficit shrank to $47.2 billion, the lowest since November 2003, from $50.9 billion.

Imports decreased 2.9 percent, the most since December 2001, to $206.7 billion. Purchases of crude oil dropped, even as the average price for the month jumped to a record $89.85. The quantity of petroleum bought from overseas was the lowest since February 2007.

The trade gap may not be able to keep narrowing as oil prices continue to surge. Crude oil prices jumped to over $125 a barrel today, the highest ever.

Demand for goods from China suffered the biggest slump last month, helping to narrow the trade gap with that nation to $16.1 billion, the smallest in two years. At the same time, exports to China were the second-highest ever.

Total exports fell 1.7 percent to $148.5 billion, driven by a decline in sales of commercial aircraft, autos and petroleum products. Even with the drop, the first since February 2007, exports were still the second-highest on record.

Demand for American goods from the European Union and from South and Central America set records in March.

As the U.S. economy teeters on the brink of a recession, trading partners such as China and Brazil continue to grow at faster rates.

A lower dollar, by making American goods cheaper to overseas buyers, is also boosting exports. The dollar was down 9 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the U.S.'s biggest trading partners in the 12 months ended in March.

Still, record exports alone won't prevent the economy from shrinking. Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the committee that determines when contractions begin and end, said May 6 in an interview with Bloomberg Television that the U.S. economy is ``sliding into a recession.''

An improvement in the trade gap may also come from a continued slowdown in imports as consumers, facing falling home values and rising fuel bills, restrain spending. U.S. companies are also investing less in foreign-made equipment as concern grows that consumer demand will continue to weaken.

 


TradingEconomics.com, Bloomberg
5/9/2008 6:11:14 AM