US GDP Growth Revised Higher to 4.3%

The US economy expanded an annualized 4.3% on quarter in Q4 2020, higher than 4.1% in the second estimate, mainly due to an upward revision to private inventory investment that was partly offset by a downward revision to nonresidential fixed investment. Still, the economy slowed from a record 33.4% expansion in Q3 as the continued rise in COVID-19 cases and restrictions on activity moderated consumer spending. The outlook for 2021 seems brighter than few months ago as the vaccination campaign continues, the $1.9 trillion aid bill was approved and Americans already started receiving stimulus checks.
BEA | Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
3/25/2021 1:20:29 PM
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, went up 2.3 percent, slightly less than 2.4 percent in the second estimate. Spending fell more than anticipated for both nondurables (-1.6 percent vs -1.1 percent in the second estimate) and durables (-1.1 percent vs -0.6 percent) while consumption of services increased faster (4.3 percent vs 4 percent), led by health care.

Business investment jumped 13.1 percent, slightly below 14 percent in the second estimate. Equipment was revised lower (25.4 percent vs 25.7 percent) and investment in structures unexpectedly declined (-6.2 percent vs 1.1 percent). On the other hand, investiment in intellectual property/software (10.5 percent vs 8.4 percent) and housing (36.6 percent vs 35.8 percent), namely single family units, strengthened. 

Inventories added 1.37 percentage point to growth, more than 1.11 percentage points in the second estimate. It primarily reflects an increase in manufacturing, including both durable and nondurable goods industries.

Exports increased 22.3 percent, higher than 21.8 percent in the second estimate, led by industral supplies and materials. Imports rose slightly more (29.8 percent vs 29.6 percent), making the contribution from net trade less negative (-1.53 percentage points vs -1.55 percentage points). 

Federal government spending edged down 0.9 percent, the same as in the advance estimate.

Considering full 2020, the economy shrank 3.5 percent, the most since 1946 and following a 2.2 percent growth in 2019, the same as in the previous estimate. Consumer spending slumped 3.9 percent, private investment 5.2 percent, exports went down 12.9  percent and imports 9.3 percent while Federal spending jumped 4.3 percent. 

US GDP Growth Revised Higher to 4.3%