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US Manufacturing PMI Misses Forecast: ISM
The ISM US Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.7 in August 2025 from 48.0 in July, though it fell short of market expectations of 49.0. The index signaled a sixth straight month of contraction, as a sharp drop in production (47.8 vs. 51.4) was only partly offset by a rebound in new orders (51.4 vs. 47.1). Employment continued to fall, though at a slightly slower pace (43.8 vs. 43.4). Customers’ inventories (44.6 vs. 45.7) and order backlogs (44.7 vs. 46.8) shrank more quickly, pointing to weaker demand conditions. The gauge for input price inflation eased to 63.7 from 64.8 but remained elevated overall. Survey respondents overwhelmingly pointed to tariffs as a drag on business conditions, citing higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and reduced competitiveness.
Published on 2025-09-02

US ISM Manufacturing PMI Below Expectations
The ISM US Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.7 in August 2025 from 48.0 in July, though it fell short of market expectations of 49.0. The reading marked a sixth consecutive month of contraction, as declines in production and employment outweighed a rebound in new orders.
Published on 2025-09-02

US Manufacturing PMI Misses Forecast: ISM
The ISM US Manufacturing PMI increased to 48.7 in August 2025 from 48.0 in July, though it fell short of market expectations of 49.0. The index signaled a sixth straight month of contraction, as a sharp drop in production (47.8 vs. 51.4) was only partly offset by a rebound in new orders (51.4 vs. 47.1). Employment continued to fall, though at a slightly slower pace (43.8 vs. 43.4). Customers’ inventories (44.6 vs. 45.7) and order backlogs (44.7 vs. 46.8) shrank more quickly, pointing to weaker demand conditions. The gauge for input price inflation eased to 63.7 from 64.8 but remained elevated overall.
Published on 2025-09-02

US Manufacturing Sector Shrinks for 5th Month: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July 2025 from 49 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 49.5. The reading marked the fifth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and was the weakest since October of last year. The largest negative contributions came from declines in supplier deliveries (45.7 vs. 46.7) and employment (43.4 vs. 45.0). "The Employment Index dropped further into contraction as panelists indicated that managing head count is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring. The mixed indicators in output suggest companies still being cautious in their hiring even with an increase in production”, Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said. On the positive side, production accelerated (51.4 vs. 50.3), while the declines in new orders (47.1 vs. 46.4) and the backlog of orders (46.8 vs. 44.3) moderated. Price pressures also eased, with the prices index falling to 64.8 from 69.7.
Published on 2025-08-01

US Manufacturing Sector Shrinks for 5th Month: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July 2025 from 49 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 49.5. The reading marked the fifth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and was the weakest since October of last year. The largest negative contributions came from declines in supplier deliveries (45.7 vs. 46.7) and employment (43.4 vs. 45.0). On the positive side, production accelerated (51.4 vs. 50.3), while the declines in new orders (47.1 vs. 46.4) and the backlog of orders (46.8 vs. 44.3) moderated. Price pressures also eased, with the prices index falling to 64.8 from 69.7.
Published on 2025-08-01

US Manufacturing Sector Shrinks for 5th Month: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July 2025 from 49 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 49.5. The reading marked the fifth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and was the weakest since October of last year. The largest negative contributions came from declines in supplier deliveries (45.7 vs. 46.7) and employment (43.4 vs. 45.0). "The Employment Index dropped further into contraction as panelists indicated that managing head count is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring. The mixed indicators in output suggest companies still being cautious in their hiring even with an increase in production”, Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said. On the positive side, production accelerated (51.4 vs. 50.3), while the declines in new orders (47.1 vs. 46.4) and the backlog of orders (46.8 vs. 44.3) moderated. Price pressures also eased, with the prices index falling to 64.8 from 69.7.
Published on 2025-08-01

US ISM Manufacturing PMI Slightly Above Forecasts
The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49 in June 2025 from 48.5 in May, compared to forecasts of 48.8, signalling economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month. However, the rate of contraction slowed, amid a rebound in production (50.3 vs 45.4) and improvements in inventories (49.2 vs 46.7). On the other hand, new orders (46.4 vs 47.6), employment (45 vs 46.8) and backlog of orders (44.3 vs 47.1) contracted at a faster pace. Also, inflationary pressures increased slightly (69.7 vs 69.4) and tariffs-induced prices growth accelerated. Meanwhile, the Supplier Deliveries Index (54.2 vs 56.1) indicated slower deliveries but improved performance, indicating that the delays in clearing goods through ports of entry are largely complete.
Published on 2025-07-01

US Manufacturing Downturn Deepens in May
The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 48.5 in May 2025 from 48.7 in April, below market expectations of 49.5. The reading marked the third consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the sharpest decline since November 2024, highlighting mounting economic uncertainty and sustained cost pressures, partly driven by volatile trade policies under the Trump administration. Output, new orders, employment, and backlog of orders all declined but at a slower pace, while new export sales dropped more sharply. Meanwhile, the Inventories Index slipped into contraction territory after expanding previously due to pull-forward buying ahead of tariffs. The Supplier Deliveries Index signaled ongoing delays, reflecting persistent bottlenecks at ports of entry. Although tariff-driven price growth eased slightly, it remained elevated overall.
Published on 2025-06-02

US Manufacturing Contracts Again in April: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. slipped to 48.7 in April 2025 from 49.0 in March, slightly above market expectations of 48. The reading signaled a second consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector as output shrank more sharply (44.0 vs. 48.3) and prices rose further (69.8 vs. 69.4). Meanwhile, new orders declined at a slower pace (47.2 vs. 45.2), though new export orders fell more steeply amid ongoing tariff-related disruptions. Meanwhile, the rate of job losses moderated slightly (46.5 vs. 44.7). The ISM survey also revealed U.S. manufacturers were grappling with rising costs and margin pressure, while ongoing trade uncertainty was disrupting supply chains, causing shipping delays, complex duties, and frequent changes in cost structures. At the same time, they said customer demand was becoming more volatile, with some clients delaying orders or pushing tariff costs back onto manufacturers.
Published on 2025-05-01

US Factory Activity Back to Contraction
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in March 2025 from 50.3 in February, below forecasts of 49.5. The reading pointed to the first contraction in factory activity in three months, after expanding only marginally in February. New orders (45.2 vs 48.6), backlog of orders (44.5 vs 46.8) and employment (44.7 vs 47.6) contracted faster and production also declined (48.3 vs 50.7) while price pressures soared to the highest since June 2022 (69.4 vs 62.4). Meanwhile, inventories rebounded (53.4 vs 49.9) and supplier deliveries (53.5 vs 54.5) indicated a continued slowing of deliveries. “Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to demand confusion. Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth", Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said.
Published on 2025-04-01

US Manufacturing Growth Slows More than Expected: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in February 2025 from 50.9 in January, below forecasts of 50.5. The reading pointed to a slower growth in the manufacturing sector as "demand eased, production stabilized, and destaffing continued as companies experience the first operational shock of the new administration’s tariff policy. Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery stoppages and manufacturing inventory impacts", Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM said. New orders fell the most since March 2022 (48.6 vs 55.1). Employment (47.6 vs 50.3) also fell into contraction territory and production slowed sharply (50.7 vs 52.5). In addition, price pressures accelerated to the highest since June 2022 (62.4 vs 54.9). Meanwhile, inventories were basically stable (49.9 vs 45.9) and backlog of orders contracted less (46.8 vs 44.9) while supplier deliveries (54.5 vs 50.9) indicated further slowing deliveries.
Published on 2025-03-03

US Factory Activity Returns to Growth: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US rose to 50.9 in January 2025 from a downwardly revised 49.2 in December 2024 and beating forecasts of 49.8. The reading pointed to the first expansion in the factory sector after 26 consecutive months of contraction. New orders increased at a faster pace (55.1 vs 52.1) while a rebound was recorded for production (52.5 vs 49.9) and employment (50.3 vs 45.4). Meanwhile, supplier deliveries were marginally slower (50.9 vs 50.1), inventories fell more (45.9 vs 48.4) and price pressures intensified (54.9 vs 52.5). "The Prices Index indicated increasing prices for the fourth consecutive month, likely reflecting the agreement and deployment of prices by buyers for 2025. Mill materials (steel, aluminum and copper), food elements and natural gas registered increases, offset by plastic resins and diesel fuel moving down in price", Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said.
Published on 2025-02-03

ISM Manufacturing PMI Rises More than Expected
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 points from the previous month to 49.3 in December of 2024, ahead of market expectations of 48.4. The result reflected the softest pace of contraction in the US manufacturing sector since the 50.3 recorded in March, which was the sole period of expansion in the industry since September of 2022. The gauge measuring new orders was at 52.5, reflecting the strongest level of demand for new goods in 11 months, suggesting that lower output for manufacturers may be close to bottoming despite the prolonged period of restrictive interest rates by the Fed. Consequently, production expanded (50.3) for the first time in six months. In turn, the gauge measuring prices faced by firms rose to 52.5, ahead of market expectations of 51.7, to maintain concerns of stubborn inflation. Firms noted a pickup in supplier deliveries and investments to undercut potential tariffs from the incoming Trump administration.
Published on 2025-01-03

ISM Manufacturing PMI Beats Expectations
The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US increased to 48.4 in November 2024 from 46.5 in October, beating forecasts of 47.5. The reading pointed to another albeit softer contraction in the manufacturing sector. New orders rebounded after seven months of contraction (50.4 vs 47.1) and production (46.8 vs 46.2), employment (48.1 vs 44.4) and inventories (48.1 vs 42.6) contracted less. Also, price pressures eased (50.3 vs 54.8) and the supplier deliveries index indicated faster deliveries (48.7 vs 52). "Demand remains weak, as companies prepare plans for 2025 with the benefit of the election cycle ending. Production execution eased in November, consistent with demand sluggishness and weak backlogs. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving but some product shortages reappearing", Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said.
Published on 2024-12-02

US Factory Activity Falls More Than Expected: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 46.5 in October 2024 from 47.2 in September and below forecasts of 47.6. The reading pointed to the another contraction in the manufacturing sector and the worst since July 2023, as demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative. Production (46.2 vs 49.8), inventories (42.6 vs 43.9) and backlog of orders (42.3 vs 44.1) fell faster and price pressures intensified (54.8 vs 48.3). Also, new orders (47.1 vs 46.1) and employment (44.4 vs 43.9) continued to decline but at a slower pace. Companies cited continuing efforts to right-size workforces to levels consistent with forecasted demand. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries improved (52 vs 52.2).
Published on 2024-11-01

US Factory Activity Continues to Shrink: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI was at 47.2 in September 2024, the same as in August, and slightly below forecasts of 47.5. The reading continued to point to a contraction in the manufacturing sector which now extended for six straight months. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative. A decline was seen for new orders (46.1 vs 44.6), inventories (43.9 vs 50.3) and backlog of orders (44.1 vs 43.6) while production nearly stalled (49.8 vs 44.8), prices eased (48.3 vs 54) and supplier deliveries indicated slowing deliveries (52.2 vs 50.5). “Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy and election uncertainty. Production execution stabilized in September. Suppliers continue to have capacity, with lead times improving and shortages reappearing", Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said.
Published on 2024-10-01

US Manufacturing Activity Contracts More than Expected: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 47.2 in August of 2024 from the November 2023 low of 46.8 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 47.5 and reflecting the 21st monthly contraction in US factory activity in the last 22 periods. The result extended the weak momentum for manufacturing in the US economy, underscoring the impact of elevated interest rates by the Federal Reserve in the sector. Surveyees noted a fresh decline in new order levels (44.6 vs 47.4 in July), the third straight decrease. Consequently, production fell at a faster pace (44.8 vs 45.9) despite another period of depletion in the backlog of orders (43.6 vs 41.7). In the meantime, employment levels fell for the 3rd straight month (46 vs 43.4), albeit at a slower pace. On the price front, costs rose at a faster pace (54 vs 52.9), firmly above market expectations that expected a slowdown to 52.5, challenging the Fed's hopes of disinflation in the economy.
Published on 2024-09-03

US Factory Activity Contracts More than Expected: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.8 in July of 2024 from 48.5 in the previous month, firmly below market expectations of 48.8, reflecting the sharpest contraction in US factory activity since November 2023. It was the 20th decline in activity during the last 21 periods, underscoring the impact of high interest rates on goods demand, pressured by a fresh contraction in the level of new orders (47.4 vs 49.3 in June). In the meantime, backlogs fell at an unchanged pace (41.7), driving production to book a sharp decline (45.9 vs 48.5). The lower demand for capacity consequently drove employment to fall for back-to-back months (43.4 vs 49.4), aligning with other data that reflects a moderating labor market. In the meantime, prices faced by factories rose at a faster pace (52.9 vs 52.1), largely due to the cost of metals and pressure in the availability of electrical components.
Published on 2024-08-01

US Factory Activity Shrinks Faster: ISM
The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to 48.5 in June 2024 from 48.7 in May, below forecasts of 49.1. The reading pointed to a third straight month of falling manufacturing activity and the lowest since February, as demand was weak again, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative. Production (48.5 vs 50.2) and employment (49.3 vs 51.1) contracted while faster decreases were seen for inventories (45.4 vs 47.9) and backlog of orders (41.7 vs 42.4). On the other hand, new orders (49.3 vs 45.4) shrank less and price pressures eased (52.1, the lowest since December, vs 57). Also, the supplier deliveries index remained in ‘faster’ territory (49.8 vs 48.9).
Published on 2024-07-01

ISM Manufacturing PMI Below Forecasts
The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly edged lower to 48.7 in May 2024 from 49.2 in April, below forecasts of 49.6. The reading showed another contraction for the manufacturing activity as demand was soft again, output was stable, and inputs stayed accommodative. A decline was seen for new orders (45.4 vs 49.1), inventories (47.9 vs 48.2) and backlog of orders. Also, production slowed (50.2 vs 51.3). On the other hand, employment rebounded (51.1 vs 48.6) and prices rose at a slower pace (57 vs 60.9) as most commodity driven costs continue to climb but at weaker rates. Finally, the supplier deliveries index was stable (at 48.9).
Published on 2024-06-03