Week Ahead - May 4th

The possibility of a fresh round of talks between the US and Iran will remain the focus for global markets as stocks, bonds, currencies, and power-hungry commodities are still moving in tandem with oil prices. The US jobs report will take the spotlight among economic data, joining the JOLTS and ADP Report in unveiling fresh insights for the labor market. Key leading indicators are also featured in the UMich consumer sentiment survey and the ISM Services PMI. China will also release industry-collected PMI data, while joining Germany in posting its trade balance. Also in Europe, the Eurozone aggregate for retail sales is awaited. Meanwhile, monetary policy decisions are due in Australia, Sweden, Norway, and Mexico. Earnings are due from Palantir, AMD, McDonald's, HSBC, Shell, Novo Nordisk, and UniCredit.
Andre Joaquim | andre.joaquim@tradingeconomics.com
5/1/2026 5:03:59 PM
Americas
The first week of May brings a fresh wave of corporate earnings, with reports expected from major companies including Palantir, AMD, Pfizer, McDonald's, PayPal, Disney, Uber, Kraft Heinz, Viatris, Unity Software, Arista Networks, and Super Micro Computer. On the economic front, the US calendar is packed with key labor market data. Highlights include April's jobs report, ADP Employment Change, preliminary productivity and labor costs for Q1, and JOLTs job openings. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 73,000, following March's 178,000 gain, while average earnings growth is expected to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2%. The unemployment rate is likely to hold steady at 4.3%. Meanwhile, the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment index may also reflect another month of record-low confidence, weighed down by fuel price hikes tied to the Iran conflict. Additional releases include the ISM Services PMI, factory orders, trade balance, and new home sales. Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Mexico will decide on interest rates. Canada will release employment data, trade figures, and the Ivey PMI, while Mexico will publish inflation and consumer/business sentiment data. Brazil will report on inflation, industrial output, and its trade balance.

Downtown New York, NY

Europe
Economic events in Europe will take a step back after the batch of major data releases, central bank decisions, and earnings reports in the final days of April. After the ECB and BoE held rates unchanged, as expected, and more G10 policy decisions will take place by the Swedish Riksbank and the Norges Bank. On top of that, the ECB will release its Annual Report for 2025, in addition to the Survey of Monetary Analysis, and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which will be accompanied by speeches from the most important members of the Governing Council. Economic releases will be headlined by the German trade figures for March, with the surplus expected to narrow as the surge in gas prices lifted imports turnover and risked margins in major export industries. Further insights on German goods producers will be featured in industrial production, expected to accelerate, and factory orders, expected to rebound. Trade balances and industrial production are also due from both France and Turkey. Meanwhile, the Eurozone will release retail sales, which are forecast to contract for back-to-back months for the first time since 2024. Among leading indicators, April PMIs are due from Italy, Switzerland, and Spain, in addition to revisions for the Euro Area. In the UK, Halifax Housing Prices will be posted. In Switzerland, an eventful week will feature the unemployment rate, the inflation rate, and consumer confidence. Turkey will also release its inflation rate. On the earnings front, results are due from HSBC, Novo Nordisk, UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Shell, Infineon, Ferrari, Leonardo, Equinor, Enel, and Rheinmetall.

Frankfurt, Germany

Asia Pacific
In China, markets will turn their attention next week to April trade data for insights into the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, alongside private RatingDog Composite and Services PMI readings. In Japan, investors will look to the minutes from the Bank of Japan's March meeting for further guidance on the policy outlook, while March wage data is also scheduled for release. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, as inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict intensify. Key domestic releases will include building permits, job advertisements, private house approvals, household spending, and trade data. Elsewhere in the region, trade figures are due from Indonesia, Pakistan, and Taiwan, while inflation data will be released across Indonesia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Philippines, Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Mongolia, and Bangladesh. GDP data are expected from Indonesia, Hong Kong, and the Philippines, while labor market figures will be released in New Zealand and the Philippines. Additionally, manufacturing PMI reports are scheduled across Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, and Singapore.

Port of Chongqing, China