The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell 1.9 points to 99.1 in January 2019, the lowest reading since February 2016 and well below market expectations of 100.6, amid global trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty. The gauge of current conditions declined to 104.3 from 104.9 in December and the business expectations sub-index dropped to 94.2 from 97.3. Sentiment deteriorated among manufacturers (11.2 vs 14.9 in November), service providers (24.5 vs 27.0), wholesalers & retailers (4.6 vs 9.2) and constructors (20.0 vs 29.3). Business Confidence in Germany averaged 98.12 Index Points from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 109.80 Index Points in January of 1991 and a record low of 80.20 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Germany is expected to be 97.60 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Germany to stand at 102.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany Ifo Business Climate Index is projected to trend around 102.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.