The Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany declined by 1.5 points from a month earlier to 94.3 in August 2019, the lowest since November 2012 and below market consensus of 95.1. The business expectations sub-index dropped to 91.3 from 92.1 in July; and the gauge of current conditions fell to 97.3 from 99.6 in the prior month. Across sectors, confidence deteriorated among manufacturers (-6.1 vs -4.3 in July), wholesalers and retailers (-2.4 vs 1.4), service providers (13 vs 18) and constructors (21.4 vs 23.1). Business Confidence in Germany averaged 98.12 Index Points from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 109.80 Index Points in January of 1991 and a record low of 80 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Germany is expected to be 94.40 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Germany to stand at 97.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany Ifo Business Climate Index is projected to trend around 102.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.