The Official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 50.2 in October 2018 from 50.8 in the previous month and missing market consensus of 50.6. The reading pointed to the weakest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since a contraction in July 2016, as output rose the least in eight months (52 vs 53 in September) and new order growth continued to slow (50.8 vs 52), with export sales falling for the fifth straight month (46.9 vs 48). In addition, employment contracted the most since February (48.1 vs 48.3) and raw materials inventory dropped further (47.2 vs 47.8). Still, the index measuring production and business expectations was unchanged at 56.4. Business Confidence in China averaged 51.94 Index Points from 2005 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 59.20 Index Points in April of 2008 and a record low of 38.80 Index Points in November of 2008.
Business Confidence in China is expected to be 51.40 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in China to stand at 51.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China NBS Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 51.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.