United Kingdom Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in the UK stood at 4.1 percent in the three months to October 2018, remaining close to its lowest level since the 1970s and matching market expectations. The number of unemployed rose by 20,000 from the May to July period while employment increased by 79,000 and the number of job vacancies were near an all-time high. Average weekly earnings including bonuses rose 3.3 percent on the year, their biggest rise since the three months to July 2008; excluding bonuses, wages also grew 3.3 percent, the most since the end of 2008. Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 7.02 percent from 1971 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 12 percent in February of 1984 and a record low of 3.40 percent in November of 1973.

Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 4.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 3.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Calendar	GMT		Actual	Previous	Consensus	TEForecast
2018-09-11	08:30 AM	Unemployment Rate	4%	4%	4%	4.1%
2018-10-16	08:30 AM	Unemployment Rate	4%	4%	4%	4%
2018-11-13	09:30 AM	Unemployment Rate	4.1%	4%	4%	4.1%
2018-12-11	09:30 AM	Unemployment Rate	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%
2019-01-22	09:30 AM	Unemployment Rate		4.1%
2019-02-21	09:30 AM	Unemployment Rate				4%
2019-03-21	09:30 AM	Unemployment Rate

UK Jobless Rate Remains Close to 43-Year Low

The unemployment rate in the UK stood at 4.1 percent in the three months to October 2018, remaining close to its lowest level since the 1970s and matching market expectations. The number of unemployed rose by 20,000 from the May to July period while employment increased by 79,000 and the number of job vacancies were near an all-time high. Average weekly earnings including bonuses rose 3.3 percent on the year, their biggest rise since the three months to July 2008; excluding bonuses, wages also grew 3.3 percent, the most since the end of 2008.

There were an estimated 1.38 million unemployed people, 20,000 more than for May to July 2018 but 49,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The unemployment rate was estimated at 4.1 percent, virtually unchanged compared with May to July 2018 but lower than the estimate for a year earlier (4.3 percent).

There were an estimated 32.48 million people in work, 79,000 more than for May to July 2018 and 396,000 more than for a year earlier. The employment rate was estimated at 75.7 percent, higher than for a year earlier (75.1 percent) and the joint-highest estimate since comparable estimates began in 1971.

There were an estimated 8.66 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive, 95,000 fewer than for May to July 2018 and 195,000 fewer than for a year earlier. The economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21 percent, lower than for a year earlier (21.5 percent) and the joint-lowest estimate since comparable estimates began in 1971.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms increased by 3.3 percent, both excluding and including bonuses, compared with a year earlier. Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1 percent excluding bonuses, and by 1.1 percent including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

ONS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
12/11/2018 9:57:09 AM

Recent Releases

UK Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.1%
The unemployment rate in the UK came in at 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2018, slightly higher than market expectations of 4 percent. The number of unemployed rose by 21,000 from the April to June period while employment rose by 23,000 and the number of job vacancies hit a fresh record high. Average weekly earnings including bonuses rose 3 percent in the third quarter, the most since Q3 2015; excluding bonuses, wages grew 3.2 percent, the most since Q4 2008.
Published on 2018-11-13

UK Jobless Rate Steady at 4%, Lowest Since 1975
The unemployment rate in the UK was unchanged at 4 percent in the three months to August 2018, the lowest since 1975 and matching market expectations. The number of unemployed dropped by 47,000 from the March to May period while employment unexpectedly declined by 5,000, the first fall in near a year.
Published on 2018-10-16

UK Unemployment Rate Unchanged at 43-Year Low
The unemployment rate in the UK held steady at 4 percent in the three months to July 2018, its joint-lowest since 1975 and in line with market consensus. The number of unemployed declined by 55,000 from the February to April period while employment rose by 3,000 and the number of job vacancies hit a fresh record high. Meanwhile, annual wage growth picked up from a nine-month low as businesses found it harder to recruit staff.
Published on 2018-09-11

UK Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest since 1975
The unemployment rate in the UK fell to 4 percent in the three months to June 2018, the lowest level since the December 1974-February 1975 period and below market consensus of 4.2 percent. The number of unemployed declined by 65,000 from the January to March period while employment rose by 42,000. Still, annual wage growth eased to a nine-month low.
Published on 2018-08-14

United Kingdom Labour	Last	Previous	Highest	Lowest	Unit
Unemployment Rate	4.10	4.10	12.00	3.40	percent	[+]
Employed Persons	32476.00	32409.00	32476.00	23630.00	Thousand	[+]
Unemployed Persons	992.60	970.70	3090.00	422.60	Thousand	[+]
Part Time Employment	8475.00	8499.00	8636.00	5995.00	Thousand	[+]
Full Time Employment	23934.00	23895.00	23934.00	19136.00	Thousand	[+]
Employment Rate	75.70	75.50	75.70	65.60	percent	[+]
Claimant Count Change	21.90	23.20	142.80	-98.50	Thousand	[+]
Labor Force Participation Rate	79.00	78.80	79.00	74.10	percent	[+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate	1.00	1.10	4.30	0.90	percent	[+]
Youth Unemployment Rate	11.30	11.10	22.30	9.70	percent	[+]
Productivity	101.20	101.60	101.70	43.10	Index Points	[+]
Labour Costs	103.90	103.80	103.90	20.70	Index Points	[+]
Job Vacancies	848.00	849.00	849.00	432.00	Thousand	[+]
Wages	524.00	523.00	524.00	300.00	GBP/Week	[+]
Wage Growth	3.30	3.10	6.60	-2.60	percent	[+]
Wages in Manufacturing	605.00	602.00	605.00	356.00	GBP/Week	[+]
Minimum Wages	7.83	7.50	7.83	5.05	GBP/Hour	[+]
Population	66.19	65.81	66.19	52.20	Million	[+]
Retirement Age Women	65.00	64.17	65.00	60.00		[+]
Retirement Age Men	65.00	65.00	65.00	65.00		[+]
Living Wage Family	1300.00	1230.00	1300.00	1180.00	GBP/Month	[+]
Living Wage Individual	895.00	850.00	900.00	785.00	GBP/Month	[+]
Wages Low Skilled	1320.00	1180.00	1320.00	1180.00	GBP/Month	[+]
Wages High Skilled	2330.00	2110.00	2460.00	2110.00	GBP/Month	[+]
Average Weekly Hours	32.20	32.10	33.50	31.30	Hours	[+]
Employment Change	79.00	23.00	307.00	-279.00	Thousand	[+]

In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force. This page provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United Kingdom Unemployment Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on December of 2018.

	Actual	Previous	Highest	Lowest	Dates	Unit	Frequency
	4.10	4.10	12.00	3.40	1971 - 2018	percent	Monthly

Export Data API

Country	Last		Previous	Range
South Africa	27.50	Sep/18	27.2	31.2 : 21.5	%
Spain	14.55	Sep/18	15.28	26.94 : 4.41	%
Brazil	11.70	Oct/18	11.9	13.7 : 6.2	%
Turkey	11.10	Aug/18	10.8	14.8 : 7.3	%
Italy	10.60	Oct/18	10.3	13.1 : 5.8	%
Argentina	9.60	Jun/18	9.1	20.8 : 5.9	%
France	9.10	Sep/18	9.1	10.7 : 7.2	%
Euro Area	8.10	Oct/18	8.1	12.1 : 7.3	%
Saudi Arabia	6.00	Jun/18	6.1	6.3 : 4.35	%
Canada	5.60	Nov/18	5.8	13.1 : 2.9	%
Indonesia	5.34	Sep/18	5.13	11.24 : 2	%
Australia	5.00	Oct/18	5	11.2 : 4	%
Russia	4.70	Oct/18	4.5	14.1 : 4.5	%
United Kingdom	4.10	Oct/18	4.1	12 : 3.4	%
South Korea	3.90	Oct/18	4.2	7.1 : 3	%
China	3.82	Sep/18	3.83	4.3 : 3.82	%
Netherlands	3.70	Oct/18	3.7	7.9 : 3.6	%
United States	3.70	Nov/18	3.7	10.8 : 2.5	%
India	3.52	Dec/17	3.51	8.3 : 3.41	%
Germany	3.30	Oct/18	3.4	11.5 : 0.4	%
Mexico	3.20	Oct/18	3.6	6.42 : 2.22	%
Switzerland	2.50	Nov/18	2.4	5.7 : 1.5	%
Japan	2.40	Oct/18	2.3	5.5 : 1	%
Singapore	2.10	Sep/18	2	6 : 1.4	%