The unemployment rate in the UK edged down to 3.9 percent in the the three months to January 2019, its lowest level since the November 1974-January 1975 period and slightly below market expectations of 4 percent. The number of unemployed fell by 35,000 on the quarter while employment increased by 222,000, the biggest rise since the three months to November 2015. Total pay growth eased to 3.4 percent on the year, remaining close to a near decade-high seen in the three months to December. Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 7 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12 percent in February of 1984 and a record low of 3.40 percent in November of 1973.

Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
width
height
Forecast Data Chart
Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices.

The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds.


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-11 09:30 AM Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
2019-01-22 09:30 AM Unemployment Rate 4% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
2019-02-19 09:30 AM Unemployment Rate 4% 4% 4% 4%
2019-03-19 09:20 AM Unemployment Rate 3.9% 4% 4% 4%
2019-04-16 08:30 AM Unemployment Rate 3.9%
2019-05-14 08:30 AM Unemployment Rate 3.9%
2019-06-11 08:30 AM Unemployment Rate 3.9%



UK Jobless Rate Drops to New 44-Year Low

The unemployment rate in the UK edged down to 3.9 percent in the the three months to January 2019, its lowest level since the November 1974-January 1975 period and slightly below market expectations of 4 percent. The number of unemployed fell by 35,000 on the quarter while employment increased by 222,000, the biggest rise since the three months to November 2015. Total pay growth eased to 3.4 percent on the year, remaining close to a near decade-high seen in the three months to December.

There were an estimated 1.34 million unemployed people, 35,000 fewer than for August to October 2018 and 112,000 fewer than for a year earlier. There have not been fewer unemployed people in the UK since October to December 1975.

There were an estimated 32.71 million people in work, 222,000 more than for August to October 2018 and 473,000 more than for a year earlier. It was the biggest quarterly rise in employment since the three months to November 2015. The employment rate was estimated at 76.1 percent, the joint-highest since comparable estimates began in 1971.

There were an estimated 8.55 million people aged from 16 to 64 years not in the labour force, 194,000 fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since January to March 1993. Of these, 3.29 million were men (116,000 fewer than for a year earlier) and 5.26 million were women (78,000 fewer than for a year earlier). The economic inactivity rate for all people was estimated at 20.7%, the lowest figure since comparable records began in 1971.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 3.4 percent both excluding and including bonuses compared with a year earlier. Average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.4 percent excluding bonuses, and by 1.5 percent including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.


ONS | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
3/19/2019 9:48:13 AM



United Kingdom Labour Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Unemployment Rate 3.90 4.00 12.00 3.40 percent [+]
Employed Persons 32714.00 32597.00 32714.00 23630.00 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1039.20 1012.10 3090.00 422.60 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8596.00 8562.00 8636.00 5995.00 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 24118.00 24035.00 24118.00 19136.00 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 76.10 75.80 76.10 65.60 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 27.00 15.70 142.80 -98.50 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 79.30 79.10 79.30 74.10 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.10 1.00 4.30 0.90 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.00 11.50 22.30 9.70 percent [+]
Productivity 101.60 101.40 101.90 43.10 Index Points [+]
Labour Costs 104.80 103.90 104.80 20.70 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 854.00 863.00 863.00 432.00 Thousand [+]
Wages 530.00 529.00 530.00 300.00 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 3.40 3.50 6.60 -2.60 percent [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 609.00 607.00 609.00 356.00 GBP/Week [+]
Minimum Wages 8.21 7.83 8.21 5.05 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 66.19 65.81 66.19 52.20 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.00 65.50 60.00 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.00 65.50 65.00 [+]
Living Wage Family 1300.00 1230.00 1300.00 1180.00 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 895.00 850.00 900.00 785.00 GBP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1320.00 1180.00 1320.00 1180.00 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2330.00 2110.00 2460.00 2110.00 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.00 32.00 33.50 31.30 Hours [+]
Employment Change 222.00 167.00 311.00 -279.00 Thousand [+]


United Kingdom Unemployment Rate

In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force. This page provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United Kingdom Unemployment Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.90 4.00 12.00 3.40 1971 - 2019 percent Monthly




Country Last Previous
South Africa 27.10 Dec/18
Spain 14.45 Dec/18
Turkey 13.50 Dec/18
Brazil 12.00 Jan/19
Italy 10.50 Jan/19
Argentina 9.10 Dec/18
France 8.80 Dec/18
Euro Area 7.80 Jan/19
India 6.10 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 6.00 Sep/18
Canada 5.80 Feb/19
Indonesia 5.34 Sep/18
Australia 4.90 Feb/19
Russia 4.90 Feb/19
United Kingdom 3.90 Jan/19
China 3.80 Dec/18
United States 3.80 Feb/19
South Korea 3.70 Feb/19
Mexico 3.60 Jan/19
Netherlands 3.40 Feb/19
Germany 3.20 Jan/19
Switzerland 2.70 Feb/19
Japan 2.50 Jan/19
Singapore 2.20 Dec/18


Related

Latest