The UK unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent in the three months to October of 2019, its lowest level in nearly 45 years and slightly below market expectations of 3.9 percent. A year earlier, the jobless rate was higher at 4.1 percent. The number of unemployed persons fell by 13 thousand to 1.28 million and the number of employed people increased by 24 thousand to 32.8 million, after dropping the most in over four years in the previous period. Also, the employment rate reached a record high of 76.2 percent. Pay growth including bonuses, rose by an annual 3.2 percent, slowing sharply from 3.7 percent in the three months to September. It is the weakest increase in more than a year, mainly due to higher than usual bonus paid in October of 2018. Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 6.95 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12 percent in February of 1984 and a record low of 3.40 percent in November of 1973. source: Office for National Statistics
Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.