The UK unemployment rate held steady at 3.8 percent in the three months to October of 2019, its lowest level in nearly 45 years and slightly below market expectations of 3.9 percent. A year earlier, the jobless rate was higher at 4.1 percent. The number of unemployed persons fell by 13 thousand to 1.28 million and the number of employed people increased by 24 thousand to 32.8 million, after dropping the most in over four years in the previous period. Also, the employment rate reached a record high of 76.2 percent. Pay growth including bonuses, rose by an annual 3.2 percent, slowing sharply from 3.7 percent in the three months to September. It is the weakest increase in more than a year, mainly due to higher than usual bonus paid in October of 2018. Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom averaged 6.95 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12 percent in February of 1984 and a record low of 3.40 percent in November of 1973. source: Office for National Statistics

Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom is expected to be 3.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom to stand at 3.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United Kingdom Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 4.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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United Kingdom Unemployment Rate

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.80 3.80 12.00 3.40 1971 - 2019 percent Monthly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-10 08:30 AM Jul 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8%
2019-10-15 08:30 AM Aug 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7%
2019-11-12 09:30 AM Sep 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8%
2019-12-17 09:30 AM Oct 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8%
2020-01-21 09:30 AM Nov 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%


News Stream
2019-11-12
UK Unemployment Rate Falls Below Forecast
The UK unemployment rate fell back to 3.8 percent in the three months to September 2019, its lowest level in nearly 45 years and slightly below market expectations of 3.9 percent. The number of people out of work declined by 23,000 to 1.306 million while the number of employed people dropped by 58,000 to 32.753 million, the biggest decrease since the three months to May 2015. Meanwhile, total pay growth slowed to 3.6 percent, below forecasts of 3.8 percent.

2019-10-15
UK Jobless Rate Unexpectedly Rises to 3.9%
The UK unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in the three months to August 2019 from 3.8 percent in the previous period, while markets had forecast the rate to remain unchanged. Unemployment rose by 22,000 to 1.314 million and employment fell the most in over four years by 56,000 to 32.693 million, missing forecasts of a 23,000 increase. Meanwhile, total pay growth advanced by 3.8 percent, below market expectations of 4 percent.

2019-09-10
UK Jobless Rate Falls Back to Lowest since Mid-1970s
The UK unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent in the three months to July 2019, back to its joint lowest since the October to December 1974 period and slightly below market expectations of 3.9 percent. Unemployment declined by 11,000 to 1.294 million and employment rose by 31,000 to 32.777 million, below forecasts of a 53,000 increase. Meanwhile, total pay growth picked up to 4 percent, the fastest since mid-2008.

2019-08-13
UK Jobless Rate Rises Unexpectedly in Q2
The UK unemployment rate edged up to 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2019 from a 44-year low of 3.8 percent in the previous period, while markets had forecast the rate to remain unchanged. Unemployment rose by 31,000 to 1.329 million and employment jumped by 115,000 to a new all-time high of 32.811 million, comfortably above forecasts of a 65,000 increase. Meanwhile, total pay growth picked up to 3.7 percent, the fastest since June 2008.

2019-07-16
UK Jobless Rate Holds Steady at Over 44-Year Low
The UK unemployment rate stood at 3.8 percent in the three months to May 2019, its lowest level since the October to December 1974 period and in line with market expectations. Unemployment dropped by 51,000 to 1.29 million and employment increased by 28,000 to a new all-time high of 32.75 million. Meanwhile, total pay growth picked up to 3.4 percent from the previous period's 3.2 percent.

2019-06-11
UK Unemployment Rate at Over 44-Year Low
The UK unemployment rate came in at 3.8 percent in the three months to April 2019, its lowest level since the October to December 1974 period and in line with market expectations. Unemployment dropped by 34,000 to 1.30 million and employment increased by 32,000 to a record high of 32.75 million. Meanwhile, total pay growth eased to 3.1 percent from the previous period's 3.3 percent.


United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.

United Kingdom Labour Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Unemployment Rate 3.80 3.80 12.00 3.40 percent [+]
Employed Persons 32801.00 32753.00 32811.00 23630.00 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 1240.20 1218.00 3090.00 422.60 Thousand [+]
Part Time Employment 8564.00 8540.00 8704.00 5995.00 Thousand [+]
Full Time Employment 24238.00 24213.00 24238.00 19136.00 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 76.20 76.00 76.20 65.60 percent [+]
Claimant Count Change 28.80 26.40 142.80 -98.50 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 79.20 79.20 79.30 74.10 percent [+]
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.00 1.00 4.30 0.90 percent [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.40 11.70 22.30 9.70 percent [+]
Labour Costs 109.40 108.90 109.40 20.90 points [+]
Productivity 101.30 100.90 101.60 42.40 points [+]
Job Vacancies 794.00 800.00 861.00 432.00 Thousand [+]
Wages 542.00 542.00 542.00 300.00 GBP/Week [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 620.00 617.00 620.00 356.00 GBP/Week [+]
Wage Growth 3.20 3.70 6.60 -2.60 percent [+]
Minimum Wages 8.21 7.83 8.21 5.05 GBP/Hour [+]
Population 66.19 65.81 66.19 52.20 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.50 65.00 65.50 60.00 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.50 65.00 65.50 65.00 [+]
Living Wage Family 1300.00 1230.00 1300.00 1180.00 GBP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 895.00 850.00 900.00 785.00 GBP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 2330.00 2110.00 2460.00 2110.00 GBP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 1320.00 1180.00 1320.00 1180.00 GBP/Month [+]
Average Weekly Hours 32.20 32.10 33.50 31.30 Hours [+]
Employment Change 24.00 -58.00 311.00 -279.00 Thousand [+]