German retail sales increased by 1.4 percent month-over-month in November 2018, beating market consensus of a 0.3 percent gain and following an upwardly revised 0.1 percent rise in the previous month. This was the steepest increase in retail trade since April. Year-on-year, retail sales rose by 1.1 percent, much slower than an upwardly revised 5.2 percent growth in October, which was the steepest yearly increase since May 2017. Retail Sales MoM in Germany averaged 0.05 percent from 1994 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in December of 2006 and a record low of -6.10 percent in January of 2007.
Retail Sales MoM in Germany is expected to be -0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Germany to stand at 0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.