German retail sales dropped unexpectedly by 0.3 percent month-over-month in October 2018, the same pace as in the previous month and missing market expectations of a 0.3 percent gain. This marked the fourth straight month of decline in retail trade. Year-on-year, retail sales surged 5 percent, reversing a 2.8 percent slump in the previous month and easily beating consensus of a 2.7 percent rise. It was the steepest yearly increase in retail trade since May 2017. Retail Sales MoM in Germany averaged 0.04 percent from 1994 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4.60 percent in December of 2006 and a record low of -6.10 percent in January of 2007.
Retail Sales MoM in Germany is expected to be 0.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Germany to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.