German industrial output dropped unexpectedly by 0.4 percent month-over-month in December 2018, missing market expectations of a 0.7 percent rise and following a downwardly revised 1.3 percent fall in November. It marked the fourth straight month of decrease in industrial production amid a decline in both consumer goods output (-0.5 percent) and intermediate goods (-0.4 percent). In contrast, capital goods output rose 0.9 percent. Outside industry, construction activity contracted sharply (-4.1 percent) while energy production was unchanged. Year-on-year, industrial production declined 3.9 percent in December, after a downwardly revised 4 percent fall in November. Industrial Production Mom in Germany averaged 0.08 percent from 1991 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4 percent in August of 1993 and a record low of -6.90 percent in January of 2009.
Industrial Production Mom in Germany is expected to be -0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Germany to stand at 0.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.