Italy's retail trade fell 0.5 percent month-over-month in July 2019, after rising 1.9 percent in June and missing market expectations of a 0.4 percent gain. Sales dropped for both non-food (-0.7 percent from 2.1 percent in June) and food products (-0.1 percent from 1.6 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade went up 2.6 percent, following a 1.3 percent rise in the previous month. Retail Sales MoM in Italy averaged 0.05 percent from 1996 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.60 percent in May of 2004.
Retail Sales MoM in Italy is expected to be 0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Italy to stand at 1.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.