Italy's retail trade edged up 0.1 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, following a 0.8 percent drop in September and beating market expectations of a 0.2 percent decline. Non-food sales rose 0.3 percent (vs -1.2 percent in September) while food trade fell 0.1 percent (vs -0.3 percent in September). Year-on-year, retail sales rose 1.5 percent in October, rebounding from a 2.5 percent slump in the previous month. In the first 10 months of the year, retail sales were up 0.1 percent compared with the same period of 2017. Retail Sales MoM in Italy averaged 0.03 percent from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.20 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.60 percent in May of 2004.
Retail Sales MoM in Italy is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Italy to stand at 0.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.