India GDP Annual Growth Rate1951-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast | Calendar

The Indian economy expanded at a record 20.1% year-on-year in Q2 2021, slightly higher than market forecasts of 20%, amid a low base effect from last year and despite a second wave of covid-19 infections and localised lockdowns. It compares with a record 24.4% slump a year earlier when the coronavirus crisis hit the economies hard. In Q2 2021, the construction sector surged 68.3%; manufacturing jumped 49.6%; trade, hotels, transport and communication 34.3%; mining 18.6%; utilities 14.3%; the farm sector 4.5%; and the financial and real estate sector 3.7%. On the consumption side, private expenditure increased 19.3%, investment 55.3%, exports 39.1% and imports 60.2% while public expenditure dropped 4.8%.

The Indian economy expanded 1.6% year-on-year in Q1 2021, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.5% growth in Q4 and beating market forecasts of 1%. It was the 2nd straight quarter of growth since the country exit a pandemic-induced recession. On the expenditure side, both private (2.7% vs -2.8% in Q4) and public (28.3% vs -1%) spending rebounded while gross fixed capital formation rose faster (10.9% vs 2.6%). Meantime, net trade contributed negatively to growth as exports climbed 8.8% (vs -3.5% in Q4) but imports jumped at a faster 12.3% (vs -5% in Q4). On the production side, output rose for manufacturing (6.9%); construction (14.5%) and utilities (9.1%). In the last fiscal year that ended on March 31st, the economy contracted a record 7.3%, less than earlier estimates of an 8% drop. Asia’s 3rd largest economy is expected to grow at the world’s fastest rate this year despite projections for the current quarter being more pessimistic amid the 2nd flare-up of infections in April.

The economy of India grew 0.4% year-on-year in the last three months of 2020, slightly below market forecasts of a 0.5% gain. Still, it is the first expansion in three quarters as the government opened economic activities in phases from June after a coronavirus lockdown in late-March. On the expenditure side, both private (1% vs -8.3% in Q3) and public (7.2% vs -17.5%) spending rebounded. Gross fixed capital formation also returned to growth (5.9% vs -7%) while exports declined 1.7% (vs -0.1% and imports sank 2% (vs -16.9%). On the production side, gross value added surged 1%, boosted by a rebound in manufacturing (1.6% vs -1.5%), construction (6.2% vs -7.2%), financial, real estate and professional services (6.6% vs -9.5%). Also, the farm sector rose faster (3.9% vs 3%) and utilities output surged (7.3% vs 2.3%). The contraction for financial year 2020/2021 was estimated slightly higher at 8% from 7.7% which would be the biggest drop ever.

The Indian economy shrank 7.5% yoy in Q3 2020, less than expectations of an 8.8% drop, amid easing of lockdown restrictions from June, higher demand during festival season and a rebound in manufacturing and utilities. It follows a record 23.9% plunge in Q2, bringing the economy into recession for the first time on record. On the demand side, smaller decreases were recorded for private spending (-11.3% vs -26.7%); investment (-7.3% vs -47.1%), exports (-1.5% vs -19.8%) and imports (-17.2% vs -40.4%). On the production side, manufacturing (0.6% vs -39.3%) and utilities (4.4% vs -7%) rebounded and mining (-9.1% vs -23.3%); construction (-8.6% vs -50.3%); and trade, hotels (-15.6% vs -47%) fell less while finance, real estate and professional activities shrank faster (-8.1% vs -5.3%). The GDP is still seen contracting in Q4 as the pandemic is far from controlled and the government announced a $10 billion stimulus package in mid-October only.