India GDP Annual Growth Rate1951-2020 Data | 2021-2023 Forecast | Calendar

The economy of India grew 0.4% year-on-year in the last three months of 2020, slightly below market forecasts of a 0.5% gain. Still, it is the first expansion in three quarters as the government opened economic activities in phases from June after a coronavirus lockdown in late-March. On the expenditure side, both private (1% vs -8.3% in Q3) and public (7.2% vs -17.5%) spending rebounded. Gross fixed capital formation also returned to growth (5.9% vs -7%) while exports declined 1.7% (vs -0.1% and imports sank 2% (vs -16.9%). On the production side, gross value added surged 1%, boosted by a rebound in manufacturing (1.6% vs -1.5%), construction (6.2% vs -7.2%), financial, real estate and professional services (6.6% vs -9.5%). Also, the farm sector rose faster (3.9% vs 3%) and utilities output surged (7.3% vs 2.3%). The contraction for financial year 2020/2021 was estimated slightly higher at 8% from 7.7% which would be the biggest drop ever.

The Indian economy shrank 7.5% yoy in Q3 2020, less than expectations of an 8.8% drop, amid easing of lockdown restrictions from June, higher demand during festival season and a rebound in manufacturing and utilities. It follows a record 23.9% plunge in Q2, bringing the economy into recession for the first time on record. On the demand side, smaller decreases were recorded for private spending (-11.3% vs -26.7%); investment (-7.3% vs -47.1%), exports (-1.5% vs -19.8%) and imports (-17.2% vs -40.4%). On the production side, manufacturing (0.6% vs -39.3%) and utilities (4.4% vs -7%) rebounded and mining (-9.1% vs -23.3%); construction (-8.6% vs -50.3%); and trade, hotels (-15.6% vs -47%) fell less while finance, real estate and professional activities shrank faster (-8.1% vs -5.3%). The GDP is still seen contracting in Q4 as the pandemic is far from controlled and the government announced a $10 billion stimulus package in mid-October only.

The Indian economy is seen falling 8.8% year-on-year in Q3 2020, following a record 23.9% plunge in the previous period, sending India into a technical recession for the first time on record. The country imposed a lockdown in late March and extended it several times, aiming to stop the spread of coronavirus, which halted most economic activities and lead to a collapse in private consumption and investment. Still, Q3 contraction is expected to be much smaller due to easing of lockdown restrictions from June, higher demand during festival season and a rebound in manufacturing, particularly non-durables, and some categories of services like passenger vehicles and railway freight. The economy is still seen shrinking in Q4 as the pandemic is far from controlled and the government announced a $10 billion stimulus package in mid-October only.

The Indian economy shrank 23.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, much worse than market forecasts of an 18.3% drop. It is the biggest contraction on record, as India imposed a coronavirus lockdown in late March and extended it several times, halting most economic activities. Still, India remains the third worst-affected country in the world by the pandemic. Construction (-50.3%), hotels and transportation (-47%) and manufacturing (-39.3%) recorded the biggest falls. Mining and quarrying (-23.3%); finance, real estate and business services (-5.3%); and utilities (-7%) also declined while the farm sector grew 3.4%. On the expenditure side, gross fixed capital formation recorded the biggest decrease (-47.1%). Private spending shrank 26.7%, inventories fell 20.8%, exports went down 19.8% and imports sank 40.4%. In contrast, government consumption jumped 16.4% as the government implemented relief measures to help curb the impact of the pandemic.