Average prices of new homes in 70 Chinese cities rose by 8.6 percent year-on-year in October of 2018, accelerating from a 7.9 percent rise in the previous month. It is the 42nd straight month of price increases and the steepest annual gain since July 2017. Among China's four biggest cities, Guangzhou reported the largest increase (4.7 percent), followed by Beijing (0.8 percent), while prices fell in Shanghai and Shenzhen (-0.4 percent each). On a monthly basis, new home prices went up 1 percent in October, following a 0.9 percent rise in September. Price gains in provincial capitals Guiyang, Shijiazhuang and Wuhan were the biggest among the 70 cities surveyed, while prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou were almost unchanged. To cool the property market, Chinese authorities have imposed tighter measures since March 2017 in at least two dozen cities. Housing Index in China averaged 3.98 percent from 2011 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in November of 2016 and a record low of -6.10 percent in March of 2015.
Housing Index in China is expected to be 8.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Housing Index in China to stand at 7.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Newly Built House Prices YoY Change is projected to trend around 6.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.